Juan Mercedes
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
Age 24
RHP
5'10" / 181 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%21.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Twins | 12 | 1 | 16 | 83 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 24.1% | -2.8% | 7.9% | 5.51 | 8.70 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Twins | 12 | 1 | 16 | 83 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 8% | 1.4 | 31.3% | 19.3% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 5.51 | 6.83 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 41 | 176 | 46 | 18 | 3 | 46% | 3.2 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 4.37 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 6 | 41 | 176 | 46 | 18 | 3 | 46% | 3.2 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 3.12 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 5.55 | 4.33 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 5.55 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 9 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 11.2% | 22.3% | -11.1% | 2.2% | 9.26 | 6.17 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 9 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.5% | 19.4% | -4.8% | 1.6% | 9.26 | 5.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.14 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 93 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.56 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 7 | 116 | 539 | 97 | 80 | 17 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 5.23 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 12 | 200 | 929 | 168 | 138 | 30 | 10% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.35 | 5.23 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.52 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 87 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 85 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 85 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 85 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 84 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 84 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 83 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 83 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 83 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 135 | 83 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 83 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 82 |
| Justin Evans R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.29 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .333 | 3.97 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 65 | -1.32 | 3.73 | 105 | 82 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.8% | .260 | 4.61 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 203 | +0.86 | 3.24 | 290 | 82 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 82 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .296 | 5.21 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.95 | 4.26 | 152 | 82 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 82 |