Juan Mercedes
P
Cedar Rapids Kernels
+0.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'10" / 181 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.6%
IP21
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Twins | 12 | 1 | 16 | 83 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 21.3% | 24.1% | 8.1% | 5.51 | 8.78 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 13 | 6 | 41 | 176 | 46 | 18 | 3 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 33 | 0 | 47 | 218 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 18.4% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 5.55 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 9 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 11.2% | 22.3% | 2.1% | 9.26 | 6.13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | MIN | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 7 | 116 | 539 | 97 | 80 | 19 | 18.1% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 5.35 | 5.34 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 116 | 12 | 200 | 929 | 167 | 138 | 33 | 18.1% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 5.35 | 5.34 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 22 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 94 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 90 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.33 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 148 | +1.46 | 3.87 | 162 | 89 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 88 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 88 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 87 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 87 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 87 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 87 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 87 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 87 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 86 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.