Juan Mercedes — OGILVIE

Juan Mercedes P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 181 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%18.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	12	1	16	83	26	16	5	8%	1.4	21.3%	24.1%	-2.8%	8.2%	5.51	8.84	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	12	1	16	83	26	16	5	8%	1.4	31.3%	19.3%	12.0%	6.0%	5.51	6.83	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	41	176	46	18	3	46%	3.2	18.5%	12.2%	6.3%	2.3%	3.95	4.33	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	41	176	46	18	3	46%	3.2	18.5%	12.2%	6.3%	2.3%	3.95	4.33	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	41	176	46	18	3	46%	3.2	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	1.7%	3.95	3.12	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	5.55	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	5.55	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	2.8%	5.55	3.84	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	22.3%	-11.1%	2.1%	9.26	6.13	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	22.3%	-11.1%	2.1%	9.26	6.13	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	14.5%	19.4%	-4.8%	1.6%	9.26	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.7%	4.3%	3.0%	5.33	5.33	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	41	0	43	181	35	22	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.02	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	17	0	18	76	15	9	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.10	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	18	78	15	10	2	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.10	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	109	22	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.10	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		67	7	116	539	97	80	18	10%	1.7	18.1%	14.8%	3.2%	3.4%	5.35	5.32	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	12	200	929	168	138	32	10%	1.7	18.1%	14.8%	3.2%	3.4%	5.35	5.32	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	18.1%	13.7%	3.0%	—	5.02	19.4%	7.1%	43	-0.31	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	85
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	85
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	84
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	83
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	82
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	82
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Stephen Perakslis R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	14.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.254	3.99	16.9%	9.9%	190	-0.55	3.07	211	82
Justin Garcia R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	17.5%	12.2%	4.0%	.265	4.84	14.7%	0.1%	14	-0.54	4.06	164	82
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.1%	12.7%	1.15	5.16
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84