Luis Carias — OGILVIE

Luis Carias P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%17.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3050

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	15	13	0	0%	1.4	9.9%	15.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.70	4.26	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	15	13	0	0%	1.4	9.9%	15.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	4.70	4.26	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	17	0	23	103	15	13	0	0%	1.4	14.6%	12.6%	1.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.49	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	12.7%	16.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.89	4.07	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	12.7%	16.1%	-3.4%	0.0%	3.89	4.07	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	12	12	35	155	29	20	0	100%	2.9	18.7%	12.9%	5.8%	0.0%	3.89	3.16	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.5%	6.04	5.35	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.5%	6.04	5.35	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	45	205	44	19	6	57%	3.2	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.9%	6.04	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	19.0%	25.5%	-6.5%	2.8%	5.51	6.27	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Ontario Tower Buzzers	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	19.0%	25.5%	-6.5%	2.8%	5.51	6.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	LAD	27	6	85	416	107	90	9	22%	3.1	25.7%	21.6%	4.1%	2.2%	5.51	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	83	0	87	369	71	42	11	0%	1.1	19.4%	11.5%	7.8%	2.9%	5.01	4.89	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	86	0	91	383	79	40	11	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.63	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	89	0	93	393	83	38	11	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.48	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	90	0	94	398	86	37	11	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	90	0	94	398	87	37	11	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	88	0	93	392	85	37	11	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	86	0	90	380	82	36	11	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	82	0	86	363	78	35	11	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	-0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	77	0	81	341	72	34	11	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.80	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	41	0	43	182	35	21	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.5%	7.8%	2.9%	5.01	4.89	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	63	0	66	279	57	29	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.63	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	73	0	77	325	69	32	9	0%	1.1	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.8%	4.59	4.48	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	79	0	83	350	76	33	10	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.46	4.39	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	82	0	86	363	79	34	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.40	4.36	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	82	0	86	363	79	34	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	80	0	84	355	77	34	11	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	78	0	82	346	74	34	11	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	73	0	77	325	69	33	11	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.3%	4.70	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		651	0	684	2888	615	282	85	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.16	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	82	25	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		70	26	187	879	140	173	19	37%	2.7	15.9%	19.7%	-3.8%	2.1%	5.24	5.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	28	200	938	149	185	20	37%	2.7	15.9%	19.7%	-3.8%	2.1%	5.24	5.43	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Carias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	17.4%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.66	20.4%	9.8%	271	-0.64	—	—	—
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	90
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	89
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	89
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	87
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	86
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	84
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	83
Wellington Diaz R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	21	SW	4.85	16.4%	12.6%	2.8%	.315	5.81	20.0%	2.8%	59	+0.96	3.29	172	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	81
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	81
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	81
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	81
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	84	21.0%	10.0%	1.14	4.62
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98