Luis Carias
P
Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21
RHP
6'4" / 170 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%17.4%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%6.0%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 17 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 9.9% | 15.8% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 4.70 | 4.26 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | 17 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 4.70 | 3.49 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 12 | 12 | 35 | 155 | 29 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 12.7% | 16.1% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 3.89 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 12 | 12 | 35 | 155 | 29 | 20 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 18.7% | 12.9% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 3.89 | 3.16 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 8 | 45 | 205 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 57% | 3.2 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.04 | 5.09 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 8 | 45 | 205 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 57% | 3.2 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 6.04 | 4.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | 18 | 1 | 64 | 300 | 81 | 58 | 8 | 6% | 3.5 | 20.0% | 22.8% | -2.8% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 6.21 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.4% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 99 | 451 | 107 | 75 | 12 | — | — | 23.8% | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 5.79 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 158 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 18 | 78 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.34 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 87 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 21 | 166 | 763 | 120 | 135 | 17 | 34% | 2.7 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -2.0% | 2.2% | 4.99 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 25 | 200 | 919 | 145 | 163 | 20 | 34% | 2.7 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -2.0% | 2.2% | 4.99 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Carias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.72 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 38 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 90 |
| Yunior Montero R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 87 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.69 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .361 | 5.05 | 17.0% | -2.8% | 72 | +0.36 | 4.67 | 178 | 86 |
| Wellington Diaz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.85 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .315 | 5.90 | 20.0% | 2.8% | 59 | +1.05 | 3.29 | 172 | 85 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.52 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 149 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 210 | 84 |
| A.J. Bogucki R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.95 | 15.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 87 | +0.35 | 3.95 | 142 | 84 |
| Tanner Cooper R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .338 | 5.44 | 14.4% | 6.7% | 121 | +0.69 | 4.49 | 148 | 84 |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 83 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.30 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.19 | 4.30 | 119 | 83 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 82 |
| Angel Peralta R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.90 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 105 | 82 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 81 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 81 |
| Engel Daniel Peralta R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.76 | 15.2% | 2.1% | 15 | +0.65 | 3.34 | 111 | 81 |
| Janser Lara R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.05 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 208 | 81 |
| David McKay R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.37 | 15.2% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.56 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 211 | +0.19 | 3.29 | 288 | 81 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2029 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 80 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 80 |
| Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 80 |
| Ezequiel Ventura R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.57 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.95 | 14.1% | 5.7% | 32 | -0.62 | 3.77 | 151 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 1.12 | 4.94 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |