Junior Aybar

2B Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 145 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Orioles O…102.247/.366/.36511824—.133/.228/.178
202519ROKBAL107.292/.406/.3600555—.219/.292/.271
202620A/ROKBAL276.257/.331/.38853049—.194/.250/.277
2027PROJMLE21MLBBAL386.183/.245/.26851045-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBBAL74.192/.255/.2911251-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed93
ISO45
wRC+37
wOBA31
BB%18
K%11
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%
CompsJose Ramos (age 21) · Roberto Reyes (age 21) · David Calabrese (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 164 proj PA
wRC+†45
AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .243 / .266
PA164
HR2
K%33
BB%7
ISO85
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.5-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER39
scouting grade only
EYE51
scouting grade only
SPEED65
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Orioles Black — 126106 23610 19370 05 217336292628 75333 2915 294 15 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 10285 21321 16230 180 247366365731 118323 2316 332 24 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Orioles — 10789 26410 17240 56 292406360765 67400 2216 352 55 — — — — — —
202620 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 211189 461132 17722 136 243312365678 122376 348 301 41 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Orioles — 6556 17003 7111 171 304391464855 161326 1711 377 76 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 126111 14310 14430 05 126224171395 45209 3411 190 15 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 10290 12210 11290 180 133228178406 44192 2811 203 24 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 10796 21310 10350 56 219292271563 52337 339 250 55 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 211194 36821 12982 136 186240263503 77351 466 229 41 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 6559 13002 4161 171 220281322603 102261 256 280 76 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 126111 14310 14430 05 126224171395 45206 3411 190 15 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Black — 126106 23610 19370 05 217336292628 75333 2915 294 15 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 10290 12210 11290 180 133228178406 44194 2811 203 24 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 10285 21321 16230 180 247366365731 118323 2316 332 24 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 10796 21310 10350 56 219292271563 52344 339 250 55 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 10789 26410 17240 56 292406360765 67400 2216 352 55 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 276253 50824 161143 307 198254292546 95333 416 241 49 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 276245 631135 24833 307 257331388719 131362 309 319 49 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 126111 14310 14430 05 126224171395 45209 3411 190 15 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 10290 12210 11290 180 133228178406 44192 2811 203 24 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 10796 21310 10350 56 219292271563 52337 339 250 55 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 276255 50824 161143 307 196254290544 94330 416 241 49 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 10290 12210 11290 180 133228178406 44192 2811 203 24 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 10796 21310 10350 56 219292271563 52337 339 250 55 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 276255 50824 161143 307 196254290544 94330 416 241 49 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEBAL 0% 386354 651225 261283 103 183245268513 85268 337 234 45 -25 +1 +0 +1 +8 -0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEBAL 34% 214195 37713 15692 62 189252285536 96270 327 244 51 -12 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.7
202822 MLB CTXBAL 34% 7468 12201 5241 21 192255291545 99274 327 248 51 -4 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 7468 12201 5241 21 176243250493 74256 327 248 43 -4 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 1061809 442119 189 178245253498 75257 327 248 43 -38 +0 +0 +2 +14 -2.2
Career— MLE — 989896 1612879 773446 6321 180249257506 77277 358 231 43 -23 +1 +0 +1 +8 -1.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 1061856 512264 4114 180250258508 78277 358 231 43 -40 +1 +0 +2 +14 -2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 211 PAwOBA .297 → .229 (−68)K% 34.1% → 46.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.12%÷1.000×1.360——46.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.06%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0305.73%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.780—×1.0300.76%
Singles /BIP25.64%÷1.000×0.920×1.016×1.03024.69%
Doubles /BIP9.40%÷1.000×0.830×1.016×1.0308.17%
Triples /BIP2.56%÷1.000×0.910×1.016×1.0302.44%
Home runs /BIP1.71%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0301.41%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .297 → .229; ISO .122 → .091; BABIP .376 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 65 PAwOBA .373 → .280 (−93)K% 16.9% → 24.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.92%÷1.000×1.440——24.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9956.64%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.720—×0.9951.10%
Singles /BIP31.11%÷1.000×0.820—×0.99525.38%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9955.17%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .373 → .280; ISO .161 → .122; BABIP .326 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 107 PAwOBA .344 → .250 (−93)K% 22.4% → 32.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.43%÷0.980×1.440——32.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.89%÷1.020×0.620—×1.0089.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP32.31%÷0.997×0.820×1.050×1.00828.11%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷1.033×0.720×1.050×1.0084.54%
Triples /BIP1.54%÷1.150×0.720×1.050×1.0081.02%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .344 → .250; ISO .067 → .045; BABIP .400 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 102 PAwOBA .328 → .203 (−125)K% 22.5% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.55%÷0.981×1.220——28.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.69%÷1.041×0.700—×1.00810.63%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP24.19%÷1.082×0.680×0.959×1.00814.69%
Doubles /BIP4.84%÷0.924×0.600×0.959×1.0083.03%
Triples /BIP3.23%÷1.150×0.600×0.959×1.0081.63%
Home runs /BIP1.61%÷0.992×0.470—×1.0080.77%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .328 → .203; ISO .118 → .063; BABIP .323 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 126 PAwOBA .288 → .190 (−98)K% 29.4% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.37%÷1.040×1.220——34.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.08%÷0.964×0.700—×1.02211.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0220.00%
Singles /BIP23.19%÷1.044×0.680×0.986×1.02215.23%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.096×0.600×0.986×1.0224.80%
Triples /BIP1.45%÷1.054×0.600×0.986×1.0220.83%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.875×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 111, K 108, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .288 → .190; ISO .075 → .042; BABIP .333 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).