Junior Aybar — OGILVIE

Junior Aybar2B Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 145 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION276 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP295

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	106	23	6	1	0	19	37	0	0	5	217	336	292	628	75	333	29	15	294	85	-2	-2	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	85	21	3	2	1	16	23	0	18	0	247	366	365	731	118	323	23	16	332	111	+1	+4	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	107	89	26	4	1	0	17	24	0	5	6	292	406	360	765	67	400	22	16	352	124	+3	-1	—	—	+2	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	113	16	4	1	0	12	51	0	0	5	142	224	195	419	53	246	40	10	188	13	-13	-2	—	—	+3	-1.3
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	92	14	2	1	1	9	34	0	18	0	152	228	228	456	76	230	33	9	214	31	-8	+4	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	107	96	21	3	1	0	10	35	0	5	6	219	292	271	563	52	334	33	9	249	55	-6	-1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	113	16	4	1	0	12	51	0	0	5	142	224	195	419	53	258	40	10	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	106	23	6	1	0	19	37	0	0	5	217	336	292	628	75	333	29	15	294	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	92	14	2	1	1	9	34	0	18	0	152	228	228	456	76	224	33	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	85	21	3	2	1	16	23	0	18	0	247	366	365	731	118	323	23	16	332	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	107	96	21	3	1	0	10	35	0	5	6	219	292	271	563	52	344	33	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	107	89	26	4	1	0	17	24	0	5	6	292	406	360	765	67	400	22	16	352	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	113	16	4	1	0	12	51	0	0	5	142	224	195	419	53	246	40	10	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	92	14	2	1	1	9	34	0	18	0	152	228	228	456	76	230	33	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	107	96	21	3	1	0	10	35	0	5	6	219	292	271	563	52	334	33	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	113	16	4	1	0	12	51	0	0	5	142	224	195	419	53	246	40	10	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	92	14	2	1	1	9	34	0	18	0	152	228	228	456	76	230	33	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	107	96	21	3	1	0	10	35	0	5	6	219	292	271	563	52	334	33	9	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	BAL	—	276	254	49	8	2	4	15	118	3	30	7	193	246	287	534	94	333	43	5	231	42	-19	+3	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	BAL	—	65	56	17	0	0	3	7	11	1	17	1	304	391	464	855	161	326	17	11	377	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	BAL	—	211	189	46	11	3	2	17	72	2	13	6	243	312	365	678	122	376	34	8	301	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	BAL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	125	222	125	347		291	33	11	242	50	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	BAL	—	285	262	50	8	2	4	16	121	3	31	7	191	246	282	528	92	329	42	6	231	42	-20	+3	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	302	275	55	10	2	5	21	101	3	10	3	200	264	305	570	105	291	33	7	255	59	-15	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	403	367	76	14	2	8	29	131	4	13	4	207	273	322	594	114	292	33	7	265	66	-16	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	464	422	88	16	3	9	34	147	5	14	4	209	275	325	600	116	293	32	7	271	70	-17	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	504	457	97	18	3	11	37	158	5	15	4	212	279	337	616	125	293	31	7	275	72	-17	+1	+0	+2	+11	-0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	524	475	101	19	3	11	39	164	5	16	4	213	279	335	614	122	293	31	7	276	73	-17	+2	+0	+2	+11	-0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	534	484	103	19	3	12	40	167	5	16	4	213	280	339	619	126	293	31	7	276	73	-17	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	535	485	103	19	3	12	40	167	5	16	4	212	279	338	617	126	293	31	7	276	73	-17	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	531	480	101	19	3	11	41	167	5	15	4	210	279	331	611	121	292	31	8	275	72	-17	+1	-1	+2	+12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	104	95	20	4	1	2	7	35	1	4	1	211	272	337	609	126	295	34	7	252	59	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	195	177	37	7	1	4	14	63	2	6	2	209	275	328	602	119	296	32	7	262	66	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	252	230	48	9	1	5	18	80	2	8	2	209	272	322	594	113	297	32	7	268	70	-9	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	279	253	55	10	2	6	21	87	3	9	2	217	285	344	629	126	298	31	8	272	72	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	293	266	58	11	2	7	22	91	3	9	2	218	285	353	639	135	298	31	8	273	73	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	300	272	59	11	2	7	22	94	3	9	2	217	283	349	632	132	298	31	7	273	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	296	269	59	11	2	7	22	93	3	9	2	219	286	353	639	134	297	31	7	273	73	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	291	264	57	10	2	7	22	91	3	8	2	216	284	348	632	133	297	31	8	272	72	-10	+1	-0	+1	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2010	1826	393	73	13	45	148	634	20	62	15	215	281	343	625	128	301	32	7	270	67	-70	+6	-0	+7	+44	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	128	24	4	15	48	205	6	20	5	217	282	347	630	131	303	32	7	270	67	-22	+2	-0	+2	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4141	3754	776	143	25	80	313	1325	37	139	42	207	274	322	596	115	294	32	8	268	67	-134	+11	-1	+14	+82	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	122	22	4	13	49	208	6	22	7	207	274	324	599	117	294	32	8	268	67	-23	+2	-0	+2	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.3	2,166	43	65	209	273	327	+8	+5	-0.5	-0.1
/162	664	13	20	+2.4	+1.5	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Junior Aybar (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	34→39	63→68	52	189/250/276	87	291	2	9	35%	7%	50	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	62	-1.4	194/241/346	152	272	18	8	35%	5%	63	-1.4	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	47	-2.6	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	55	-2.0	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	32	-0.9
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	39	41→45	56→50	41	189/251/288	99	284	8	15	35%	7%	53	-2.1	182/253/293	111	267	12	13	34%	8%	55	-1.9	182/240/283	101	235	12	16	28%	7%	44	-1.3
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→41	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	72	-0.7	202/272/280	78	301	2	16	31%	8%	58	-1.7	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Kody Eaves 2013 · A	20	41→42	39→45	56→50	41	200/251/288	89	269	5	8	27%	6%	52	-2.2	204/242/298	94	280	6	14	28%	4%	51	-2.3	185/243/302	117	253	10	7	30%	7%	50	-1.4
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Kelvin Duran 2010 · A	19	45	39→45	60→55	43	213/262/308	95	277	5	19	24%	6%	60	-1.6	195/243/273	78	277	5	14	30%	6%	45	-2.7	154/197/200	46	227	5	15	33%	5%	10	-1.2
✕Luis Valenzuela 2015 · A	21	41	37→45	55→45	39	197/236/272	76	265	4	7	27%	5%	42	-2.9	244/270/336	92	305	5	7	21%	3%	69	-0.9	262/284/362	100	318	5	7	19%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2017 · A	21	44	38→45	58→65	42	203/276/285	82	317	4	20	34%	8%	61	-1.5	195/258/287	92	323	7	29	39%	7%	55	-2.0	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	45	35→40	55→30	46	209/266/267	58	257	2	10	19%	6%	53	-2.1	224/267/299	75	261	3	8	15%	4%	60	-1.6	247/273/328	81	279	3	3	12%	2%	67	-0.4
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	59	-1.6	205/269/296	91	280	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	44→41	38→40	57→55	51	197/299/276	79	311	4	20	34%	12%	69	-0.9	185/268/271	86	315	6	17	39%	10%	55	-1.9	139/221/218	78	251	5	17	43%	9%	23	-1.1
✕Francisco Santana 2008 · A	20	37	38→50	52→55	39	182/227/269	87	246	5	7	28%	5%	38	-3.2	202/247/309	107	265	8	12	26%	5%	55	-2.0	191/230/306	114	248	9	14	26%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Jonathan Piron 2015 · A	20	40	37→45	56→50	35	193/225/278	84	274	3	16	30%	4%	38	-3.2	203/230/311	108	291	9	13	33%	3%	49	-2.4	198/220/311	114	282	11	14	34%	2%	42	-1.6
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	51	-2.3	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	207/265/294	88	309	7	13	34%	7%	59	-1.7	216/259/313	97	318	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/254/305	93	308	6	14	32%	5%	53	-1.2
✕Brian Pointer 2012 · A	20	41	44→45	56→50	38	203/257/327	124	300	11	10	35%	6%	63	-1.3	189/261/299	110	295	10	12	37%	7%	59	-1.6	194/274/314	120	289	11	13	34%	8%	65	-0.9
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→50	41	180/242/256	76	270	4	13	33%	7%	42	-2.9	209/260/327	118	304	9	6	32%	7%	64	-1.3	213/280/360	147	293	15	9	31%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Shard Munroe 2017 · A	21	41	38→40	58→50	49	194/268/275	81	255	4	16	24%	8%	55	-1.9	198/267/293	95	283	8	13	30%	8%	59	-1.6	176/250/270	95	256	9	14	33%	8%	46	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps