Junior Aybar
2B Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 102 | .247/.366/.365 | 1 | 18 | 24 | — | .133/.228/.178 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKBAL | 107 | .292/.406/.360 | 0 | 5 | 55 | — | .219/.292/.271 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKBAL | 276 | .257/.331/.388 | 5 | 30 | 49 | — | .194/.250/.277 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBAL | 386 | .183/.245/.268 | 5 | 10 | 45 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 74 | .192/.255/.291 | 1 | 2 | 51 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | — | 126 | 106 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 217 | 336 | 292 | 628 | 75 | 333 | 29 | 15 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 85 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 247 | 366 | 365 | 731 | 118 | 323 | 23 | 16 | 332 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 89 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 292 | 406 | 360 | 765 | 67 | 400 | 22 | 16 | 352 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 211 | 189 | 46 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 72 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 243 | 312 | 365 | 678 | 122 | 376 | 34 | 8 | 301 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 65 | 56 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 304 | 391 | 464 | 855 | 161 | 326 | 17 | 11 | 377 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 126 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 126 | 224 | 171 | 395 | 45 | 209 | 34 | 11 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 133 | 228 | 178 | 406 | 44 | 192 | 28 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 292 | 271 | 563 | 52 | 337 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 211 | 194 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 98 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 186 | 240 | 263 | 503 | 77 | 351 | 46 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 65 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 220 | 281 | 322 | 603 | 102 | 261 | 25 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 126 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 126 | 224 | 171 | 395 | 45 | 206 | 34 | 11 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Black | — | 126 | 106 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 217 | 336 | 292 | 628 | 75 | 333 | 29 | 15 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 133 | 228 | 178 | 406 | 44 | 194 | 28 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 85 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 247 | 366 | 365 | 731 | 118 | 323 | 23 | 16 | 332 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 292 | 271 | 563 | 52 | 344 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 89 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 292 | 406 | 360 | 765 | 67 | 400 | 22 | 16 | 352 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 253 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 114 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 198 | 254 | 292 | 546 | 95 | 333 | 41 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 245 | 63 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 83 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 257 | 331 | 388 | 719 | 131 | 362 | 30 | 9 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Black | — | 126 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 126 | 224 | 171 | 395 | 45 | 209 | 34 | 11 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 133 | 228 | 178 | 406 | 44 | 192 | 28 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 292 | 271 | 563 | 52 | 337 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 255 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 114 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 254 | 290 | 544 | 94 | 330 | 41 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 102 | 90 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 133 | 228 | 178 | 406 | 44 | 192 | 28 | 11 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 107 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 219 | 292 | 271 | 563 | 52 | 337 | 33 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 255 | 50 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 114 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 254 | 290 | 544 | 94 | 330 | 41 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 386 | 354 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 128 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 183 | 245 | 268 | 513 | 85 | 268 | 33 | 7 | 234 | 45 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 214 | 195 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 189 | 252 | 285 | 536 | 96 | 270 | 32 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 74 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 291 | 545 | 99 | 274 | 32 | 7 | 248 | 51 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 74 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 243 | 250 | 493 | 74 | 256 | 32 | 7 | 248 | 43 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 106 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 211 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 178 | 245 | 253 | 498 | 75 | 257 | 32 | 7 | 248 | 43 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 989 | 896 | 161 | 28 | 7 | 9 | 77 | 344 | 6 | 63 | 21 | 180 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 77 | 277 | 35 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 106 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 226 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 180 | 250 | 258 | 508 | 78 | 277 | 35 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -40 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 211 PAwOBA .297 → .229 (−68)K% 34.1% → 46.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 24.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×1.030 | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .297 → .229; ISO .122 → .091; BABIP .376 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 65 PAwOBA .373 → .280 (−93)K% 16.9% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 25.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 5.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .373 → .280; ISO .161 → .122; BABIP .326 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 107 PAwOBA .344 → .250 (−93)K% 22.4% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.43% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.89% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.31% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 28.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .344 → .250; ISO .067 → .045; BABIP .400 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 102 PAwOBA .328 → .203 (−125)K% 22.5% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.55% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.69% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.082 | ×0.680 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 14.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.992 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.77% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .328 → .203; ISO .118 → .063; BABIP .323 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 126 PAwOBA .288 → .190 (−98)K% 29.4% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.37% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.08% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷1.044 | ×0.680 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 15.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.096 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.054 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 111, K 108, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .288 → .190; ISO .075 → .042; BABIP .333 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).