Junior Aybar — OGILVIE

Junior Aybar2B Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 145 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION230 act + 153 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .256 / .285

PA153

HR2

SB9

K%36

BB%7

BABIP296

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	112	15	3	1	0	13	49	0	0	5	134	224	179	403	45	238	39	10	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	106	23	6	1	0	19	37	0	0	5	217	336	292	628	75	333	29	15	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	92	14	2	1	1	9	34	0	18	0	152	228	228	456	76	224	33	9	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	85	21	3	2	1	16	23	0	18	0	247	366	365	731	118	323	23	16	332	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	107	96	21	3	1	0	10	36	0	5	6	219	292	271	563	52	350	34	9	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	107	89	26	4	1	0	17	24	0	5	6	292	406	360	765	67	400	22	16	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	BAL	—	230	212	39	6	1	4	13	102	2	26	6	184	238	278	516	94	324	44	6	226	32	-18	+3	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
YTD	20	A	BAL	—	230	204	52	9	2	5	21	72	2	26	6	255	330	392	723	137	364	31	9	321	104	+1	+3	+0	+1	+7	1.1
ROS	20	A	BAL	0%	153	140	27	5	1	2	11	55	1	9	2	192	256	285	541	93	284	36	7	239	41	-10	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		288	—	—	236	39	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	BAL	—	230	213	39	6	1	4	13	102	2	26	6	183	238	277	515	94	321	44	6	226	32	-18	+3	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
TOT	20	A	BAL	—	383	352	66	11	2	6	24	157	3	35	8	187	245	281	526	94	312	41	6	231	35	-28	+4	+0	+1	+11	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	341	311	61	11	2	6	24	116	3	11	3	196	260	302	563	106	287	34	7	253	52	-19	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.7
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	433	394	78	14	2	8	32	143	4	14	4	198	265	305	570	107	288	33	7	263	59	-20	+1	+0	+2	+12	-0.5
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	117	107	22	4	1	2	8	40	1	4	1	206	267	318	585	112	291	34	7	250	50	-7	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	210	191	39	7	1	4	15	69	2	7	2	204	269	314	583	110	293	33	7	260	57	-10	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	327	299	61	11	2	6	23	109	3	11	3	204	269	314	583	110	296	33	7	257	55	-17	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	121	22	4	12	46	217	6	22	6	204	269	315	583	111	295	33	7	257	55	-33	+2	+0	+2	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	1262	1145	216	38	8	17	99	433	8	57	20	189	258	280	538	92	284	34	8	243	44	-79	+3	+0	+5	+36	-3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	112	20	4	9	51	223	4	29	10	190	259	283	542	93	285	34	8	243	44	-41	+2	+0	+2	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	126	106	23	6	1	0	19	37	0	5	217	336	292	628	75	333	29	15	294	83	-2	-2	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	102	85	21	3	2	1	16	23	18	0	247	366	365	731	118	323	23	16	332	113	+1	+4	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	107	89	26	4	1	0	17	24	5	6	292	406	360	765	67	400	22	16	352	127	+3	-1	—	—	+3	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	502	8	15	196	260	297	+2	+2	-1.0	-0.5
	/162	664	10	20	196	260	297	+2.4	+2.6	-1.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Junior Aybar (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	35→40	63→68	52	187/245/281	94	312	6	35	41%	6%	35	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	40	-2.4	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	49	-1.8	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	23	-0.9
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	38→37	41→45	56→50	41	186/249/288	102	279	8	15	35%	7%	45	-2.1	184/254/304	120	272	13	13	35%	8%	53	-1.5	166/230/262	96	226	11	13	31%	7%	28	-1.4
✕Kelvin Duran 2010 · A	19	45	39→45	60→55	43	213/262/308	95	277	5	19	24%	6%	55	-1.4	195/243/273	78	277	5	14	30%	6%	38	-2.6	153/197/199	46	226	5	15	33%	5%	-2	-1.2
✕Kody Eaves 2013 · A	20	41→43	39→45	56→50	41	200/251/288	89	269	5	8	27%	6%	46	-2.0	205/243/301	96	280	6	14	28%	4%	45	-2.1	179/237/296	116	252	10	7	32%	6%	40	-1.5
✕Jonathan Piron 2015 · A	20	40	37→45	56→50	35	193/225/278	84	274	3	16	30%	4%	30	-3.1	203/230/310	107	293	9	13	33%	3%	41	-2.3	197/220/309	112	282	11	14	34%	2%	33	-1.5
✕Gabriel Ovalle 2015 · A	20	36	35→40	57→60	41	173/225/241	68	239	1	15	27%	6%	22	-3.7	188/252/246	58	261	1	15	26%	7%	35	-2.8	179/270/216	37	224	0	32	18%	9%	34	-0.9
✕Shard Munroe 2017 · A	21	41	38→40	58→50	49	194/268/275	81	255	4	16	24%	8%	50	-1.8	197/265/292	95	283	8	13	31%	8%	53	-1.5	174/247/268	94	256	9	14	34%	8%	37	-0.9
✕Roberto Reyes 2010 · A	21	38	38→40	56→55	40	180/254/263	84	299	6	15	39%	8%	42	-2.3	194/253/277	83	300	5	8	35%	6%	43	-2.2	182/234/254	72	263	5	2	31%	5%	28	-1.1
✕Kelvin Diaz 2023 · A	20	37	43→50	56→60	36	185/253/297	112	281	10	19	36%	6%	50	-1.7	173/244/264	91	301	8	23	42%	7%	38	-2.6	140/212/218	79	253	8	29	45%	7%	12	-1.4
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	45→42	39→40	54→50	49	212/301/304	92	297	6	15	28%	10%	72	-0.2	195/269/291	96	274	7	11	29%	9%	55	-1.4	181/270/264	83	253	5	13	28%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	41	41→40	57→60	48	201/274/306	105	261	8	20	25%	8%	61	-1.0	183/262/263	80	276	4	22	32%	8%	45	-2.1	166/252/237	72	256	4	27	33%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	40→48	39→40	56→60	43	193/255/276	83	270	6	20	30%	7%	45	-2.1	209/276/279	70	304	4	22	30%	7%	54	-1.4	189/253/276	87	274	8	24	32%	7%	41	-0.9
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Jose Salas 2023 · A	20	43→39	41→45	57→55	42	210/280/309	99	289	9	21	29%	7%	65	-0.7	179/236/261	82	276	7	20	36%	6%	33	-2.9	166/219/271	105	257	13	24	39%	5%	26	-1.6
✕Ernesto Manzanillo 2008 · A	19	43	39→40	58→50	45	204/276/291	87	296	6	15	31%	8%	57	-1.2	219/285/316	97	323	6	14	31%	8%	67	-0.5	224/266/315	91	324	5	11	31%	5%	56	-0.5
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	40→29	37→50	54→55	38	188/244/263	75	289	4	11	34%	6%	37	-2.7	181/253/315	134	327	17	16	46%	7%	56	-1.3	164/239/293	129	288	17	19	46%	7%	40	-1.6
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0