Hans Montero
1B Tampa Tarpons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ANYY | 391 | .206/.307/.333 | 8 | 13 | 31 | — | .155/.229/.249 |
| 2025 | 21 | ANYY | 334 | .269/.360/.431 | 10 | 25 | 53 | — | .183/.260/.307 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/ANYY | 483 | .239/.369/.415 | 13 | 42 | 68 | — | .187/.285/.317 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBNYY | 584 | .180/.265/.299 | 12 | 22 | 60 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBNYY | 134 | .186/.271/.316 | 3 | 5 | 65 | -0.5 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBNYY | 214 | .190/.275/.323 | 5 | 8 | 68 | -0.7 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 233 | 190 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 74 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 200 | 342 | 253 | 595 | 53 | 316 | 32 | 14 | 288 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 142 | 111 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 39 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 180 | 350 | 261 | 611 | 81 | 260 | 27 | 17 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 234 | 183 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 48 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 257 | 419 | 404 | 823 | 148 | 323 | 21 | 19 | 379 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 339 | 70 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 113 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 206 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 127 | 282 | 29 | 11 | 292 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 290 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 112 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 360 | 431 | 791 | 162 | 400 | 34 | 11 | 352 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 66 | 52 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 269 | 424 | 346 | 770 | 77 | 406 | 29 | 20 | 364 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 417 | 346 | 81 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 60 | 99 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 234 | 360 | 425 | 785 | 191 | 290 | 24 | 14 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 233 | 199 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 116 | 238 | 131 | 369 | 15 | 200 | 39 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 142 | 118 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 102 | 243 | 127 | 370 | 25 | 161 | 34 | 12 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 234 | 200 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 73 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 175 | 295 | 260 | 555 | 85 | 251 | 31 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 354 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 160 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 155 | 229 | 249 | 478 | 93 | 253 | 41 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 300 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 152 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 183 | 260 | 307 | 566 | 123 | 319 | 46 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 66 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 211 | 318 | 281 | 599 | 70 | 349 | 38 | 12 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 417 | 365 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 135 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 184 | 280 | 323 | 603 | 140 | 254 | 32 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 233 | 199 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 116 | 238 | 131 | 369 | 15 | 209 | 39 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 233 | 190 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 74 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 200 | 342 | 253 | 595 | 53 | 316 | 32 | 14 | 288 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 142 | 118 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 102 | 243 | 127 | 370 | 25 | 167 | 34 | 12 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 142 | 111 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 39 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 180 | 350 | 261 | 611 | 81 | 260 | 27 | 17 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 234 | 200 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 73 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 175 | 295 | 260 | 555 | 85 | 258 | 31 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Yankees | — | 234 | 183 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 48 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 257 | 419 | 404 | 823 | 148 | 323 | 21 | 19 | 379 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 354 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 160 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 155 | 229 | 249 | 478 | 93 | 258 | 41 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 339 | 70 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 113 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 206 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 127 | 282 | 29 | 11 | 292 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 300 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 152 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 183 | 260 | 307 | 566 | 123 | 331 | 46 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 290 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 112 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 269 | 360 | 431 | 791 | 162 | 400 | 34 | 11 | 352 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 422 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 160 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 187 | 285 | 318 | 603 | 130 | 271 | 33 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 398 | 95 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 118 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 239 | 369 | 415 | 783 | 176 | 304 | 24 | 15 | 353 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Yankees 1 | — | 233 | 199 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 116 | 238 | 131 | 369 | 15 | 200 | 39 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL NYY Bombers | — | 142 | 119 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 101 | 243 | 126 | 369 | 25 | 161 | 34 | 12 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 234 | 198 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 73 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 177 | 295 | 263 | 557 | 86 | 251 | 31 | 12 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 354 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 160 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 155 | 229 | 249 | 478 | 93 | 253 | 41 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 300 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 152 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 183 | 260 | 307 | 566 | 123 | 319 | 46 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 422 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 160 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 187 | 285 | 318 | 603 | 130 | 267 | 33 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 391 | 354 | 55 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 160 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 155 | 229 | 249 | 478 | 93 | 253 | 41 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 300 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 152 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 183 | 260 | 307 | 566 | 123 | 319 | 46 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 422 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 160 | 9 | 42 | 8 | 187 | 285 | 318 | 603 | 130 | 267 | 33 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYY | 0% | 584 | 519 | 94 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 202 | 8 | 22 | 5 | 180 | 265 | 299 | 563 | 119 | 263 | 35 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -28 | +2 | +0 | -10 | +13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 30% | 447 | 398 | 73 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 151 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 185 | 270 | 309 | 579 | 124 | 265 | 34 | 9 | 264 | 65 | -19 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +10 | -1.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 44% | 486 | 433 | 81 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 161 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 189 | 273 | 317 | 590 | 128 | 267 | 33 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -19 | +2 | +0 | -9 | +11 | -1.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 51% | 505 | 448 | 86 | 15 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 165 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 191 | 276 | 321 | 597 | 130 | 268 | 33 | 9 | 271 | 69 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -9 | +11 | -1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 52% | 512 | 454 | 88 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 165 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 193 | 277 | 323 | 600 | 130 | 269 | 32 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -9 | +11 | -1.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 30% | 134 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 271 | 316 | 587 | 129 | 266 | 34 | 9 | 266 | 65 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 44% | 214 | 190 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 190 | 275 | 323 | 598 | 133 | 267 | 33 | 9 | 271 | 68 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 51% | 256 | 228 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 83 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 193 | 277 | 327 | 605 | 135 | 268 | 32 | 9 | 274 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -0.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 52% | 268 | 239 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 86 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 195 | 278 | 329 | 607 | 135 | 269 | 32 | 9 | 275 | 70 | -9 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 872 | 776 | 149 | 26 | 7 | 21 | 78 | 285 | 11 | 33 | 7 | 192 | 275 | 325 | 600 | 133 | 270 | 33 | 9 | 272 | 57 | -33 | +4 | +0 | -16 | +19 | -2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 111 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 58 | 212 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 192 | 274 | 325 | 600 | 133 | 269 | 33 | 9 | 272 | 57 | -24 | +3 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3977 | 3512 | 621 | 103 | 31 | 76 | 368 | 1399 | 66 | 209 | 48 | 177 | 267 | 289 | 556 | 112 | 265 | 35 | 9 | 252 | 57 | -84 | +9 | +0 | -39 | +47 | -6.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 60 | 229 | 11 | 34 | 8 | 176 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 110 | 264 | 35 | 9 | 252 | 57 | -25 | +3 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ATampa Tarpons · 417 PAwOBA .345 → .268 (−77)K% 23.7% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 16.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.990 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .345 → .268; ISO .191 → .149; BABIP .290 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 66 PAwOBA .356 → .268 (−88)K% 28.8% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 37.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 11.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 31.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .356 → .268; ISO .077 → .065; BABIP .406 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ATampa Tarpons · 334 PAwOBA .345 → .247 (−98)K% 33.5% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 45.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.78% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.78% | ÷1.119 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | — | 23.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.046 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | — | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.913 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | — | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.62% | ÷0.842 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 124, 2B 109, 3B 83, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .345 → .247; ISO .162 → .125; BABIP .400 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 391 PAwOBA .286 → .214 (−73)K% 28.9% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.90% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.24% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 19.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.98% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 3.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 2.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .286 → .214; ISO .127 → .096; BABIP .282 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 234 PAwOBA .370 → .251 (−120)K% 20.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.951 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.80% | ÷0.995 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×0.995 | 19.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.106 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×0.995 | 2.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.995 | ×0.995 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.383 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.08% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .370 → .251; ISO .148 → .089; BABIP .323 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 142 PAwOBA .293 → .190 (−102)K% 27.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.46% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.90% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 12.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.52% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.023 | ×0.680 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 13.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.057 | ×0.600 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 1.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.982 | ×0.995 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.608 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.40% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 222, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .293 → .190; ISO .081 → .037; BABIP .260 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Yankees 1 · 233 PAwOBA .284 → .186 (−98)K% 31.8% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.76% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.16% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.43% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.72% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.31% | ÷0.979 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 2.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.129 | ×0.600 | ×0.957 | ×1.008 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.231 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.33% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 96, 3B 126, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .284 → .186; ISO .053 → .026; BABIP .316 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).