Kelvin Diaz
2B Salem Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROKBOS | 178 | .212/.386/.314 | 2 | 21 | 36 | — | .133/.261/.180 |
| 2024 | 21 | A/ROK2 orgs | 244 | .258/.329/.392 | 3 | 28 | 28 | — | .175/.230/.274 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+/A2 orgs | 157 | .150/.231/.271 | 4 | 10 | -1 | — | .117/.173/.206 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBBOS | 207 | .205/.264/.312 | 4 | 5 | 62 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBBOS | 24 | .214/.275/.333 | 0 | 1 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBBOS | 64 | .217/.278/.341 | 1 | 2 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | — | 163 | 141 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 234 | 329 | 340 | 670 | 106 | 304 | 24 | 8 | 305 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | — | 207 | 178 | 43 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 55 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 242 | 338 | 455 | 793 | 213 | 308 | 27 | 8 | 347 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 178 | 137 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 49 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 212 | 386 | 314 | 700 | 102 | 310 | 28 | 19 | 331 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 109 | 103 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 214 | 257 | 340 | 597 | 126 | 344 | 38 | 6 | 266 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 114 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 298 | 389 | 439 | 828 | 140 | 416 | 29 | 10 | 362 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 36 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 94 | 260 | 31 | 118 | 42 | 11 | 138 | -60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 121 | 108 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 176 | 250 | 324 | 574 | 148 | 205 | 26 | 8 | 257 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 163 | 145 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 152 | 236 | 207 | 443 | 55 | 209 | 29 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 207 | 182 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 66 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 137 | 230 | 253 | 483 | 115 | 181 | 32 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 178 | 150 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 133 | 261 | 180 | 441 | 47 | 244 | 40 | 12 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 109 | 105 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 143 | 174 | 238 | 412 | 95 | 298 | 54 | 4 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 135 | 119 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 55 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 202 | 275 | 303 | 577 | 101 | 300 | 41 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 36 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 88 | 199 | 29 | 95 | 58 | 6 | 79 | -60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 121 | 112 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 134 | 192 | 241 | 433 | 107 | 178 | 37 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 163 | 145 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 152 | 236 | 207 | 443 | 55 | 212 | 29 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Red | — | 163 | 141 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 234 | 329 | 340 | 670 | 106 | 304 | 24 | 8 | 305 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 207 | 182 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 66 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 137 | 230 | 253 | 483 | 115 | 190 | 32 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL BOS Blue | — | 207 | 178 | 43 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 55 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 242 | 338 | 455 | 793 | 213 | 308 | 27 | 8 | 347 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 178 | 150 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 133 | 261 | 180 | 441 | 47 | 241 | 40 | 12 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 178 | 137 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 49 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 212 | 386 | 314 | 700 | 102 | 310 | 28 | 19 | 331 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 224 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 114 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 170 | 225 | 254 | 479 | 85 | 321 | 47 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 244 | 217 | 56 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 258 | 329 | 392 | 721 | 134 | 384 | 33 | 8 | 319 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 157 | 146 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 110 | 167 | 199 | 365 | 89 | 167 | 42 | 6 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 157 | 140 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 150 | 231 | 271 | 502 | 121 | 189 | 30 | 9 | 230 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Red | — | 163 | 146 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 151 | 236 | 205 | 442 | 55 | 209 | 29 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL BOS Blue | — | 207 | 183 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 66 | 10 | 20 | 3 | 137 | 230 | 251 | 482 | 115 | 181 | 32 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 178 | 150 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 133 | 261 | 180 | 441 | 47 | 244 | 40 | 12 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 226 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 114 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 168 | 225 | 252 | 477 | 84 | 299 | 47 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 157 | 146 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 110 | 167 | 199 | 365 | 89 | 159 | 42 | 6 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 226 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 114 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 168 | 225 | 252 | 477 | 84 | 299 | 47 | 5 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 157 | 146 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 110 | 167 | 199 | 365 | 89 | 159 | 42 | 6 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 207 | 189 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 63 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 205 | 264 | 312 | 577 | 108 | 282 | 30 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 30% | 81 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 324 | 593 | 116 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 44% | 146 | 134 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 272 | 333 | 605 | 122 | 283 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 30% | 24 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 275 | 333 | 607 | 118 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 273 | 67 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 44% | 64 | 59 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 278 | 341 | 619 | 124 | 293 | 30 | 6 | 277 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 88 | 81 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 198 | 261 | 284 | 545 | 86 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 276 | 33 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 118 | 30 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 192 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 197 | 260 | 283 | 543 | 85 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 276 | 33 | -24 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1225 | 1102 | 173 | 36 | 7 | 16 | 81 | 446 | 29 | 99 | 22 | 157 | 233 | 246 | 479 | 89 | 241 | 36 | 7 | 217 | 33 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 91 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 237 | 15 | 53 | 12 | 156 | 232 | 243 | 474 | 87 | 240 | 36 | 7 | 217 | 33 | -25 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 121 PAwOBA .252 → .194 (−58)K% 26.4% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.45% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.47% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 12.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .252 → .194; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .205 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Greenville Drive · 36 PAwOBA .136 → .079 (−56)K% 41.7% → 58.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.67% | ÷0.936 | ×1.310 | — | — | 58.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.050 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.974 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 5.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .136 → .079; ISO .031 → .017; BABIP .118 → .095. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 135 PAwOBA .361 → .243 (−119)K% 28.9% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.89% | ÷1.026 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷0.968 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.33% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.061 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 8.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.15% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .243; ISO .140 → .091; BABIP .416 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASalem Red Sox · 109 PAwOBA .259 → .167 (−92)K% 37.6% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.61% | ÷0.948 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 17.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 10.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.933 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .259 → .167; ISO .126 → .076; BABIP .344 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Red Sox · 178 PAwOBA .326 → .222 (−104)K% 27.5% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.53% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 11.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.81% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×0.995 | 19.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.079 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×0.995 | 3.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×0.995 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.81% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .326 → .222; ISO .102 → .068; BABIP .310 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BOS Blue · 207 PAwOBA .343 → .209 (−134)K% 26.6% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.57% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.73% | ÷0.954 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.83% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | ×0.951 | ×0.995 | 11.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷1.112 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×0.995 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.951 | ×0.995 | 2.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷0.893 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 2.55% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .343 → .209; ISO .213 → .115; BABIP .308 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL BOS Red · 163 PAwOBA .301 → .198 (−103)K% 23.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.93% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.29% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.977 | ×0.680 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 17.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.027 | ×0.600 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 2.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.959 | ×0.600 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.790 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.52% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 258, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 92, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .301 → .198; ISO .106 → .051; BABIP .304 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).