Kelvin Diaz — OGILVIE

Kelvin Diaz2B Salem Red Sox

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 148 lbs A H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 148 proj PA

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .245 / .299

PA148

HR3

K%30

BB%6

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	163	146	25	3	1	1	8	56	7	13	6	171	248	226	474	55	264	34	5	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	163	141	33	5	2	2	13	39	7	13	6	234	329	340	670	106	304	24	8	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	207	183	29	6	3	5	11	78	10	20	3	158	245	306	551	148	233	38	5	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	207	178	43	12	4	6	16	55	10	20	3	242	338	455	793	213	308	27	8	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	178	150	22	2	1	2	21	71	5	21	4	147	273	213	486	67	256	40	12	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	178	137	29	4	2	2	34	49	5	21	4	212	386	314	700	102	310	28	19	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	244	224	36	10	0	2	12	118	4	28	4	161	217	232	449	71	315	48	5	203	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	2 teams	—	244	217	56	18	1	3	19	80	4	28	4	258	329	392	721	134	384	33	8	319	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	157	146	16	3	0	4	9	71	1	10	4	110	167	212	379	103	167	45	6	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	157	140	21	5	0	4	14	47	1	10	4	150	231	271	502	121	189	30	9	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	BOS	—	148	137	27	5	1	3	9	44	1	4	1	197	252	314	566	117	261	30	6	247	47	-9	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BOS	30%	219	202	41	8	1	5	13	64	2	6	2	203	258	327	585	124	266	29	6	259	56	-11	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
2028	25	MLB	BOS	44%	305	280	57	11	1	7	19	87	3	8	2	204	262	325	587	121	268	29	6	265	61	-13	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.3
2029	26	MLB	BOS	51%	363	333	69	14	2	8	24	102	3	10	3	207	267	333	600	126	269	28	7	269	64	-15	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	BOS	30%	66	61	12	3	0	1	4	19	1	2	0	197	258	295	553	98	272	29	6	256	54	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	BOS	44%	135	124	26	5	1	3	9	38	1	4	1	210	269	339	607	129	274	28	7	263	59	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	BOS	51%	184	168	35	7	1	4	12	52	2	5	1	208	269	333	603	125	275	28	7	266	62	-8	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	385	353	73	15	2	8	25	109	4	11	2	207	267	329	596	122	273	28	6	264	60	-17	+1	+0	+1	+11	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	123	25	3	14	42	184	7	19	3	206	267	329	596	122	272	28	6	264	60	-29	+3	+0	+2	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	1984	1801	322	62	10	37	126	691	36	120	29	179	247	286	533	107	261	35	6	238	40	-134	+12	+0	+7	+56	-5.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	105	20	3	12	41	226	12	39	10	178	246	283	529	105	260	35	6	238	40	-44	+4	+0	+2	+18	-2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL BOS Red	—	163	141	33	5	2	2	13	39	7	13	6	234	329	340	670	106	304	24	8	305	92	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2022	19	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	—	207	178	43	12	4	6	16	55	10	20	3	242	338	455	793	213	308	27	8	347	124	+6	+3	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	178	137	29	4	2	2	34	49	5	21	4	212	386	314	700	102	310	28	19	331	112	+2	+3	—	—	+5	1.0
2024	21	A	Salem Red Sox	—	109	103	22	8	1	1	6	41	0	8	2	214	257	340	597	126	344	38	6	266	62	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	21	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	135	114	34	10	0	2	13	39	4	20	2	298	389	439	828	140	416	29	10	362	135	+5	+3	—	—	+4	1.3
2025	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	36	32	2	1	0	0	4	15	0	1	0	62	167	94	260	31	118	42	11	138	-36	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	22	A	Salem Red Sox	—	121	108	19	4	0	4	10	32	1	9	4	176	250	324	574	148	205	26	8	257	55	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	533	11	14	203	257	323	+2	+2	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	14	17	203	257	323	+2.4	+2.5	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kelvin Diaz (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	40→45	63→68	44	192/245/299	107	261	3	4	30%	6%	47	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cooper Bowman 2023 · A	23	39	44→45	59→60	43	191/272/302	111	287	11	31	35%	8%	60	-1.0	201/274/322	121	279	12	35	31%	8%	66	-0.6	195/268/315	120	262	12	40	29%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Jordyn Adams 2023 · AA	23	40	38→45	58→60	36	190/243/268	78	298	5	24	36%	6%	37	-2.6	197/256/307	110	301	11	29	36%	7%	53	-1.5	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Mycal Jones 2010 · A	23	40→45	41→45	55	42	196/253/300	105	266	6	14	28%	6%	50	-1.7	209/265/324	115	283	10	15	29%	6%	62	-0.9	219/277/306	87	283	6	24	24%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A	22	39→38	43→50	55	35	192/249/294	102	300	11	14	38%	5%	47	-1.9	197/249/320	123	286	14	19	35%	5%	54	-1.4	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2022 · A	23	42	41→40	58→60	40	198/267/289	91	321	9	25	38%	8%	53	-1.5	189/272/270	81	309	6	19	37%	9%	52	-1.6	97/227/121	24	177	0	28	39%	12%	-4	-1.2
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2019 · AA	23	39→38	47→50	54→55	43	198/273/336	137	281	14	17	33%	8%	69	-0.4	191/270/311	120	270	12	17	32%	8%	62	-0.9	168/253/270	102	226	10	19	29%	8%	41	-1.2
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Michael Sandle 2023 · A	24	41→38	42→40	57→50	38	199/258/303	104	289	9	16	33%	6%	53	-1.5	186/244/283	97	282	9	14	36%	6%	42	-2.3	148/206/233	85	224	10	16	37%	5%	11	-3.0
✕Jason Kanzler 2014 · A	23	38→44	40→45	58→55	34	185/234/283	98	302	7	14	40%	5%	37	-2.6	194/247/298	104	323	8	17	40%	5%	46	-2.0	187/240/292	105	310	9	20	41%	4%	40	-1.7
✕Billy Cook 2023 · A	24	37→41	46→50	57→55	33	184/240/318	134	303	14	20	42%	6%	50	-1.7	202/262/339	137	290	17	22	35%	6%	65	-0.7	206/270/345	138	286	17	24	33%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Taylor Lewis 2014 · A	24	37	39→45	61→55	35	181/228/275	94	281	5	18	36%	5%	32	-3.0	201/244/290	89	293	5	17	32%	5%	43	-2.2	208/231/276	68	278	4	26	26%	2%	29	-0.8
✕Travis Witherspoon 2012 · A	23	41→47	42→50	56→55	37	202/248/302	100	290	10	22	33%	5%	48	-1.9	214/268/343	129	290	15	23	30%	6%	68	-0.5	209/267/345	136	278	16	25	30%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	44→28	38→45	57→50	41	201/270/281	80	317	5	16	36%	8%	53	-1.5	213/271/338	125	320	13	13	35%	6%	68	-0.5	202/261/313	111	301	12	16	35%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	33→36	41→45	53→55	43	170/253/270	99	234	9	20	30%	7%	44	-2.1	183/267/288	105	279	10	20	36%	8%	55	-1.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Jose Torres 2023 · A	23	39→32	44→40	55	38	200/245/310	110	269	13	20	31%	5%	50	-1.8	178/231/270	92	282	10	15	39%	6%	33	-2.9	163/218/258	94	259	12	13	40%	6%	22	-1.8
✕Nicholas Moresi 2008 · A	23	42→39	44→45	56→45	38	205/264/325	120	298	11	11	34%	6%	62	-0.9	192/236/300	108	292	10	7	36%	4%	43	-2.2	176/214/275	99	273	8	4	37%	4%	24	-1.9
✕Cody Rogers 2012 · A	23	38→39	43→40	56→50	41	190/253/302	112	258	10	16	30%	6%	51	-1.7	197/258/287	90	287	6	16	32%	6%	49	-1.8	184/247/255	71	278	4	19	33%	6%	34	-1.9
✕Jeffrey Baez 2017 · A	23	41→43	40→50	56→60	39	201/244/293	92	268	8	27	28%	5%	44	-2.1	204/257/334	130	274	15	18	30%	6%	61	-1.0	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕John Rhodes 2023 · AA	22	44→34	41→40	58→50	48	209/290/312	103	280	7	16	26%	8%	69	-0.4	183/250/282	99	265	10	9	33%	7%	45	-2.1	165/231/253	88	240	10	7	34%	7%	26	-2.5