Gabriel Lara

OF Tampa Tarpons

Age 21 L/L 5'9" / 165 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKNYY	109	.277/.318/.406	2	4	24	—	.194/.224/.272
2026	20	ANYY	89	.164/.315/.342	3	5	38	—	.117/.236/.234
2026	20	ROKNYY	24	.222/.417/.444	1	2	48	—	.150/.292/.350
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBNYY	239	.212/.280/.317	4	5	69	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBNYY	75	.218/.286/.336	2	1	75	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBNYY	158	.222/.291/.349	4	3	79	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%78

Z-Con%73

Speed72

BB%69

Whiff%55

K%45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCarlos Jimenez (age 21) · Gavin Conticello (age 21) · Angel Ortiz (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .278 / .314

PA125

HR2

K%27

BB%7

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	146	39	7	1	4	28	30	6	18	8	267	406	411	817	144	307	16	15	370	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	124	25	1	1	1	18	19	4	14	4	202	322	250	572	48	231	13	12	277	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	109	101	28	5	1	2	5	26	1	4	5	277	318	406	724	129	347	24	5	317	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	16	12	2	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	167	333	167	500		250	31	6	249	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	73	12	4	0	3	13	22	3	5	1	164	315	342	657	178	188	25	15	305	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	24	18	4	1	0	1	5	9	1	2	1	222	417	444	861	222	375	38	21	392	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	154	26	4	1	1	20	37	6	18	8	169	289	227	516	58	210	20	11	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	129	19	1	1	1	13	23	4	14	4	147	247	194	440	47	159	16	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	103	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	194	224	272	496	78	266	34	3	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	16	12	2	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	167	333	167	500		224	44	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	89	77	9	3	0	2	9	30	3	5	1	117	236	234	470	117	160	34	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	24	20	3	1	0	1	3	13	1	2	1	150	292	350	642	200	282	54	12	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	154	26	4	1	1	20	37	6	18	8	169	289	227	516	58	212	20	11	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	146	39	7	1	4	28	30	6	18	8	267	406	411	817	144	307	16	15	370	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	129	19	1	1	1	13	23	4	14	4	147	247	194	440	47	171	16	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	124	25	1	1	1	18	19	4	14	4	202	322	250	572	48	231	13	12	277	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	103	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	194	224	272	496	78	284	34	3	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	—	109	101	28	5	1	2	5	26	1	4	5	277	318	406	724	129	347	24	5	317	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	129	109	14	4	0	3	13	49	6	7	2	128	258	248	506	119	190	38	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	129	103	18	5	0	4	19	36	6	7	2	175	336	340	676	165	219	28	15	314	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	182	154	26	4	1	1	20	37	6	18	8	169	289	227	516	58	210	20	11	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	128	19	1	1	1	13	23	4	14	4	148	247	195	442	47	159	16	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	104	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	192	224	269	494	77	266	34	3	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	129	109	14	4	0	3	13	49	6	7	2	128	258	248	506	119	191	38	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	146	128	19	1	1	1	13	23	4	14	4	148	247	195	442	47	159	16	9	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	109	104	20	3	1	1	3	37	1	4	5	192	224	269	494	77	266	34	3	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	129	109	14	4	0	3	13	49	6	7	2	128	258	248	506	119	191	38	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	239	217	47	8	2	4	17	65	3	5	1	212	280	317	596	104	282	27	7	270	69	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	219	198	42	7	1	4	16	59	3	4	1	217	285	332	617	114	284	27	7	278	75	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	327	295	65	11	2	7	24	86	5	7	2	221	290	343	633	122	285	26	7	285	79	-8	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	402	363	82	14	3	9	30	105	6	8	2	224	293	353	646	129	286	26	7	290	82	-8	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	445	403	92	16	3	11	33	115	6	9	2	226	295	359	655	133	287	26	7	293	85	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	470	425	97	17	3	12	36	121	6	9	2	227	297	364	661	136	287	26	8	296	86	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	481	435	98	17	3	12	37	125	6	9	2	226	296	361	657	135	286	26	8	294	85	-8	+1	+0	-3	+10	0.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	483	437	98	17	3	12	37	126	6	7	2	224	294	356	650	132	285	26	8	292	84	-9	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	478	433	96	17	3	11	36	126	6	5	2	222	291	350	641	128	284	26	8	288	81	-11	+0	-1	-3	+10	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	75	69	15	3	0	2	5	20	1	1	0	218	286	336	623	118	284	27	7	281	75	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	158	143	32	5	1	4	12	42	2	3	1	222	291	349	640	127	285	27	8	287	79	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	212	191	42	7	1	5	16	55	3	4	1	225	294	359	653	133	287	26	8	293	82	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	244	221	51	9	2	6	18	63	3	5	1	227	296	366	662	138	287	26	7	296	85	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	262	236	54	9	2	7	20	67	4	5	1	229	298	371	669	142	287	26	8	299	86	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	265	240	55	9	2	7	20	69	3	5	1	228	297	368	665	140	286	26	8	297	85	-5	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	264	239	54	9	2	7	20	69	3	4	1	226	295	363	658	137	285	26	8	295	84	-5	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	255	231	51	9	1	6	19	67	3	3	1	223	292	356	648	133	284	26	7	291	81	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1735	1570	354	60	11	44	130	452	22	30	7	225	294	362	656	136	287	26	7	294	75	-35	+3	-1	-10	+38	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	132	22	4	16	49	169	8	11	3	224	293	357	650	133	286	26	8	294	75	-13	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3996	3597	773	132	25	86	307	1043	63	103	35	215	288	337	625	122	276	26	8	280	75	-72	+6	-2	-21	+74	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	125	21	4	14	50	170	10	17	6	214	286	335	621	121	275	26	8	280	75	-14	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.8	1,859	43	32	225	290	354	-11	+0	0.4	0.5
/162	664	15	12	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Lara (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	211/278/314	103	282	2	2	27%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2024 · A	21	39→44	40→50	52→55	44	186/271/278	93	294	7	15	36%	9%	59	-1.7	222/298/356	134	324	13	17	33%	9%	86	+0.3	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Gavin Conticello 2024 · A	21	36→46	45	48→50	40	185/254/310	126	264	13	8	34%	7%	59	-1.6	219/279/344	125	300	11	8	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Angel Ortiz 2024 · A	21	40→45	39→50	47→45	40	197/244/283	86	268	6	8	28%	6%	48	-2.5	228/285/354	126	301	11	6	26%	7%	80	-0.1	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	40→48	41→55	46→55	42	198/255/291	92	273	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	206/267/338	132	276	14	13	29%	7%	70	-0.8	229/297/399	170	285	18	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	39→48	47→45	49→55	42	203/257/343	140	262	14	11	28%	6%	68	-1.0	215/268/332	117	289	11	11	28%	6%	69	-0.9	226/297/349	123	283	12	19	23%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A	21	42→45	45→50	55→50	39	207/270/339	132	294	12	8	32%	6%	72	-0.7	210/260/342	132	294	14	8	32%	5%	68	-1.0	208/282/359	151	278	18	6	31%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→49	39→55	49→45	44	198/268/289	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.6	217/280/371	154	321	18	7	36%	7%	83	+0.1	222/291/386	164	273	18	6	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→46	39→50	48→45	42	174/249/268	95	270	5	6	35%	8%	47	-2.5	202/266/320	118	277	11	6	30%	7%	66	-1.1	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Travis Swaggerty 2019 · A	21	39→46	41→45	50→55	40	192/251/290	98	279	8	7	33%	7%	53	-2.1	211/277/311	100	301	9	15	31%	8%	68	-1.0	209/278/308	99	307	7	19	32%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Alexander Ovalles 2022 · A	21	45→41	43→50	45→50	45	221/286/331	110	288	10	6	26%	7%	75	-0.5	214/279/336	122	291	13	10	29%	7%	74	-0.5	204/271/332	129	273	15	11	30%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Junior Franco 2024 · A	21	42→43	43→45	50→55	38	208/258/315	107	302	10	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	220/274/324	104	286	10	19	25%	6%	69	-0.9	227/282/332	105	286	10	21	23%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	193/274/305	112	280	11	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	225/272/334	109	314	11	8	30%	6%	70	-0.8	237/289/332	96	308	9	3	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	37→47	40	50	42	186/244/277	91	256	7	11	30%	7%	47	-2.6	234/302/324	90	314	7	9	25%	8%	80	-0.2	246/319/331	85	322	6	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Daryl Jones 2008 · A	21	41→51	38→45	48→50	42	199/263/279	80	267	6	13	27%	6%	55	-1.9	237/303/342	105	312	9	14	25%	7%	84	+0.2	242/312/349	107	314	9	14	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Ryan Mount 2008 · A	21	43	42→50	51→50	42	212/267/315	102	290	10	13	30%	6%	64	-1.3	228/267/355	127	292	14	10	26%	5%	74	-0.6	242/286/380	138	297	15	8	23%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Juan Silva 2012 · A	21	42→47	40→45	46→55	42	200/264/291	91	304	7	7	34%	8%	58	-1.7	225/301/328	103	316	8	21	29%	10%	80	-0.1	231/313/335	104	314	8	29	27%	10%	85	+0.1
✕Nick Maton 2019 · A	22	43→42	42→50	47→45	40	211/264/322	111	295	9	5	30%	6%	65	-1.2	211/278/312	101	291	8	8	28%	8%	68	-1.0	210/302/353	143	263	16	4	25%	10%	86	+0.2

Gabriel Lara

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps