Carlos Mateo
P
FCL Pirates
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.79
FIP4.79
K%22.2%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP11
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 13 | 7 | 12 | 86 | 18 | 30 | 0 | 54% | 0.9 | 14.2% | 43.6% | -29.4% | 0.0% | 18.75 | 7.42 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 13 | 7 | 12 | 86 | 18 | 30 | 0 | 54% | 0.9 | 20.9% | 34.9% | -14.0% | 0.0% | 18.75 | 7.60 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 13 | 7 | 23 | 131 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 54% | 1.8 | 10.9% | 33.4% | -22.5% | 1.3% | 11.74 | 7.11 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 13 | 7 | 23 | 131 | 21 | 35 | 1 | 54% | 1.8 | 16.0% | 26.7% | -10.7% | 0.8% | 11.74 | 6.40 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 16 | 2 | 16 | 111 | 22 | 36 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 40.5% | -27.1% | 0.0% | 15.98 | 7.10 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 16 | 2 | 16 | 111 | 22 | 36 | 0 | 12% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 32.4% | -12.6% | 0.0% | 15.98 | 7.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 20 | 0 | 22 | 99 | 39 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 36.5% | -11.9% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.79 | 4.79 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 33 | 144 | 49 | 29 | 2 | — | — | 34.0% | 19.9% | 14.1% | 1.6% | 4.04 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.18 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 102 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 62 | 16 | 73 | 427 | 66 | 162 | 2 | 26% | 1.2 | 15.4% | 38.0% | -22.6% | 0.4% | 11.41 | 6.83 | -1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 44 | 200 | 1165 | 179 | 443 | 5 | 26% | 1.2 | 15.4% | 38.0% | -22.6% | 0.4% | 11.41 | 6.83 | -3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Mateo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.56 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 20 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.62 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .286 | 5.15 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.53 | 3.62 | 181 | 86 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 85 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.37 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.75 | 3.30 | 104 | 85 |
| Ty Tice R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.48 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.81 | 3.24 | 288 | 83 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 83 |
| Nolan Sparks R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.06 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .229 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 3.7% | 120 | +0.81 | 4.06 | 136 | 83 |
| Chase Ingram R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.11 | 23.2% | 15.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.08 | 15.8% | 3.0% | 154 | -0.03 | 3.97 | 174 | 82 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.66 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.49 | 4.17 | 106 | 82 |
| Samuel Carpio R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.32 | 21.2% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.71 | 21.2% | -4.8% | 90 | +1.39 | 4.32 | 112 | 82 |
| Justin Meis R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 82 |
| Troy Bacon R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.92 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .222 | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 102 | +0.27 | 3.43 | 203 | 81 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 81 |
| Evan Phillips R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.89 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 1.6% | .300 | 3.90 | 22.0% | 10.7% | 177 | +0.01 | 1.57 | 496 | 81 |
| Augusto Calderon R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.17 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .226 | 4.31 | 18.2% | 5.9% | 126 | +0.14 | 3.52 | 208 | 81 |
| Miguel Castro R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.53 | 14.5% | 4.9% | 207 | +0.11 | 3.33 | 554 | 81 |
| Austin Mason R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.07 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.34 | 3.60 | 179 | 81 |
| Nic Enright R 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 81 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 81 |
| Reiss Knehr R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .267 | 5.07 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 171 | +0.83 | 3.37 | 395 | 81 |
| Michael Brewer R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.30 | 23.7% | 16.2% | 2.1% | .303 | 4.69 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 114 | +0.39 | 3.07 | 144 | 80 |