Carlos Mateo — OGILVIE

Carlos Mateo P FCL Pirates

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 177169vR 161

ERA7.59

FIP7.59

K%18.8%

BB%32.5%

K-BB%-13.8%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	7	12	86	18	30	0	54%	0.9	14.2%	43.6%	-29.4%	0.0%	18.75	7.42	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	7	12	86	18	30	0	54%	0.9	14.2%	43.6%	-29.4%	0.0%	18.75	7.42	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	13	7	12	86	18	30	0	54%	0.9	20.9%	34.9%	-14.0%	0.0%	18.75	7.60	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	13	7	23	131	21	35	1	54%	1.8	10.9%	33.4%	-22.5%	1.2%	11.74	7.05	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	13	7	23	131	21	35	1	54%	1.8	10.9%	33.4%	-22.5%	1.2%	11.74	7.05	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	13	7	23	131	21	35	1	54%	1.8	16.0%	26.7%	-10.7%	0.8%	11.74	6.40	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	16	2	16	111	22	36	0	12%	1.0	13.5%	40.5%	-27.1%	0.0%	15.98	7.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	16	2	16	111	22	36	0	12%	1.0	13.5%	40.5%	-27.1%	0.0%	15.98	7.10	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	16	2	16	111	22	36	0	12%	1.0	19.8%	32.4%	-12.6%	0.0%	15.98	7.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	0	24	108	43	25	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	36.5%	-11.9%	0.0%	3.75	5.64	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	0	24	108	43	25	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	36.5%	-11.9%	0.0%	3.75	5.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	PIT	16	0	15	72	26	21	0	0%	0.9	36.1%	29.2%	6.9%	0.0%	4.80	3.75	—
2026	20	A RAW	PIT	6	0	9	36	17	4	1	0%	1.5	47.2%	11.1%	36.1%	2.8%	2.00	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	24	0	25	104	21	27	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	26.1%	-6.1%	2.8%	6.89	6.65	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	11	0	12	51	10	13	1	0%	1.1	19.9%	26.1%	-6.1%	2.8%	6.89	6.65	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	51	10	13	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	26.1%	-6.1%	2.8%	6.89	6.27	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	214	16	0%	1.1	19.9%	26.1%	-6.1%	2.8%	6.89	6.27	-4.0
Career	—	MLE		64	16	75	436	68	166	2	25%	1.2	15.6%	38.0%	-22.4%	0.3%	11.23	6.79	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	42	200	1158	181	440	4	25%	1.2	15.6%	38.0%	-22.4%	0.3%	11.23	6.79	-4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Mateo (OGILVIE)	—	—	7.59	18.8%	32.5%	2.9%	—	6.65	19.9%	-6.1%	25	-0.94	—	—	—
Pedro Peralta R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	17	SU	6.77	15.3%	22.9%	3.8%	.300	6.07	14.3%	-7.4%	106	-0.70	5.13	121	84
Samuel Fabian R 2023 · 6.61 FIP	20	SU	6.61	16.8%	27.4%	2.7%	.352	4.33	17.2%	4.8%	64	-2.28	4.21	120	83
Andrew Baker R 2021 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	22.3%	37.8%	2.5%	.158	4.66	24.7%	6.7%	135	-2.70	3.44	256	83
Brendan Hardy R 2021 · 6.99 FIP	21	SU	6.99	15.9%	33.1%	1.9%	.324	3.67	22.9%	7.9%	83	-3.32	2.54	137	82
Rael Santos R 2022 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	17.1%	32.7%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	81
Michell Miliano R 2019 · 7.22 FIP	19	SU	7.22	22.2%	30.4%	3.9%	.279	5.47	24.3%	-0.4%	76	-1.75	4.42	205	81
Adrian Rodriguez R 2021 · 6.92 FIP	20	SU	6.92	23.1%	34.0%	2.7%	.368	5.46	23.1%	-1.6%	93	-1.46	2.43	148	81
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	80
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	80
Juan Arnaud R 2023 · 6.40 FIP	20	SU	6.40	16.1%	24.2%	2.9%	.196	4.49	21.1%	4.5%	132	-1.91	3.43	184	80
Dallas Woolfolk R 2018 · 7.66 FIP	21	SU	7.66	16.8%	24.7%	5.2%	.262	6.62	12.9%	-9.0%	34	-1.04	5.12	100	77
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	77
Maikel Miralles R 2023 · 6.82 FIP	18	SW	6.82	14.7%	17.2%	5.1%	.323	4.96	14.0%	-1.6%	184	-1.86	4.03	194	76
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	76
Walker Brockhouse R 2021 · 6.65 FIP	22	SU	6.65	20.2%	19.7%	5.0%	.265	4.69	19.3%	3.2%	111	-1.96	4.24	126	76
Alec Kenilvort R 2016 · 6.44 FIP	23	SU	6.44	15.1%	17.0%	4.5%	.333	3.97	18.3%	9.1%	85	-2.47	2.97	109	76
Brian Metoyer R 2018 · 6.80 FIP	21	SU	6.80	11.9%	17.9%	4.4%	.244	3.05	27.2%	13.9%	33	-3.75	2.70	140	75
Mark Adamiak R 2023 · 6.87 FIP	22	SU	6.87	14.4%	20.8%	4.3%	.410	4.20	18.2%	8.2%	110	-2.67	3.83	122	75
Diego Dominguez R 2022 · 6.92 FIP	18	SU	6.92	12.4%	18.5%	4.6%	.321	3.77	14.9%	1.2%	69	-3.15	3.76	125	73
Tyler Morgan R 2023 · 6.56 FIP	22	SU	6.56	13.2%	16.2%	4.6%	.190	4.85	16.2%	6.1%	99	-1.71	4.73	114	73