Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 6 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 17% | 1.7 | 14.7% | 17.2% | -2.5% | 4.7% | 5.23 | 6.62 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 6 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 17% | 1.7 | 21.6% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 5.52 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 5 | 52 | 240 | 56 | 27 | 3 | 19% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.99 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 5 | 52 | 240 | 56 | 27 | 3 | 19% | 1.9 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 1.2% | 4.99 | 3.25 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 16 | 71 | 307 | 62 | 35 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 15.0% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 4.94 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 16 | 71 | 307 | 62 | 35 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 4.94 | 3.38 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 14 | 11 | 49 | 243 | 34 | 41 | 7 | 79% | 3.5 | 10.8% | 19.4% | -8.6% | 3.6% | 8.08 | 6.62 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 42 | 177 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.3% | 14.8% | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.60 | 5.60 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.3% | 14.8% | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.60 | 5.60 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 91 | 420 | 59 | 67 | 12 | — | — | 14.1% | 16.0% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 6.94 | 6.15 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.3% | 14.8% | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.60 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 44 | 186 | 31 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.9 | 16.6% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 5.32 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 46 | 193 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.6% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 5.32 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 18 | 94 | 398 | 72 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.59 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 106 | 21 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 5.07 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 33 | 183 | 841 | 120 | 129 | 19 | 49% | 2.7 | 14.3% | 15.3% | -1.1% | 2.3% | 5.81 | 5.07 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 36 | 200 | 921 | 131 | 141 | 21 | 49% | 2.7 | 14.3% | 15.3% | -1.1% | 2.3% | 5.81 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Maikel Miralles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.60 | 14.3% | 14.8% | 2.6% | — | 5.00 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 137 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Trent Fennell R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 86 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 86 |
| Juan Gomez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 85 |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 84 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 84 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 83 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 83 |
| Luis Mora R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.78 | 16.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% | .303 | 5.55 | 23.9% | 1.2% | 43 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 119 | 83 |
| Ben Ethridge R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .250 | 6.15 | 13.0% | 2.0% | 66 | +1.67 | 4.48 | 144 | 83 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 82 |
| Justin Militello R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.11 | 16.5% | 17.9% | 2.1% | .284 | 6.03 | 13.5% | -5.2% | 25 | +0.92 | 5.11 | 100 | 82 |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 82 |
| David Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .316 | 3.77 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 102 | -0.64 | 3.66 | 161 | 82 |
| Jeffrey German R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.59 | 13.6% | 15.5% | 1.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 123 | 82 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 82 |
| Luis Mateo R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 81 |
| Jose Bello R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.58 | 13.4% | 14.9% | 3.1% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 155 | 81 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 81 |
| Channing Austin R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.0% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .304 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 38 | -0.85 | 3.58 | 109 | 81 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 1.01 | 5.22 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |