Tyler Morgan — OGILVIE

Tyler Morgan P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%18.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	1	14	64	11	9	2	11%	1.6	13.2%	16.2%	-2.9%	4.6%	5.02	6.56	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	1	14	64	11	9	2	11%	1.6	13.2%	16.2%	-2.9%	4.6%	5.02	6.56	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	9	1	14	64	11	9	2	11%	1.6	17.2%	14.1%	3.1%	3.1%	5.02	5.26	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	37	5	74	309	56	27	7	14%	2.0	14.0%	10.0%	3.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.89	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	37	5	74	309	56	27	7	14%	2.0	14.0%	10.0%	3.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.89	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	37	5	74	309	56	27	7	14%	2.0	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.3%	4.76	3.91	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	0	26	99	29	9	3	0%	2.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	4.0%	3.51	4.73	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	0	26	99	29	9	3	0%	2.0	22.6%	10.5%	12.1%	4.0%	3.51	4.73	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	0	26	99	29	9	3	0%	2.0	29.3%	9.1%	20.2%	3.0%	3.51	3.41	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	SD	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	280	55	28	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.79	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	65	276	55	28	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	267	53	27	9	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.82	4.86	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	SD	28	0	29	122	24	12	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.81	4.79	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	35	18	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	46	0	48	203	40	21	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.82	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	117	495	98	50	16	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	85	27	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.2%	9.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		59	6	114	472	74	52	16	10%	1.9	15.7%	11.0%	4.7%	3.5%	4.51	5.08	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	11	200	830	130	91	29	10%	1.9	15.7%	11.0%	4.7%	3.5%	4.51	5.08	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Morgan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	18.6%	10.3%	3.1%	—	4.81	19.9%	9.7%	195	-0.09	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	84
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	84
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	84
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	84
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	84
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	83
Daniel Corcino R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.2%	7.5%	3.2%	.238	4.76	19.4%	8.2%	263	+0.39	3.84	299	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	82
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	82
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	82
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	82
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	82
Brad Schreiber R 2016 · 4.06 FIP	25	SU	4.06	16.5%	7.9%	2.5%	.304	4.23	17.3%	4.6%	57	+0.17	3.81	171	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	19.7%	10.2%	1.21	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19