Juan Sierra
OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Astros Bl… | 195 | .270/.380/.497 | 9 | 10 | 47 | — | .159/.255/.265 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKHOU | 122 | .289/.415/.402 | 2 | 1 | 70 | — | .229/.314/.324 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKHOU | 281 | .226/.307/.395 | 10 | 7 | 50 | — | .182/.242/.303 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBHOU | 391 | .207/.268/.333 | 9 | 7 | 69 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBHOU | 75 | .214/.276/.347 | 2 | 1 | 73 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBHOU | 150 | .217/.280/.355 | 4 | 3 | 77 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 48
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | — | 150 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 174 | 329 | 298 | 626 | 124 | 191 | 19 | 17 | 297 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 163 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 270 | 380 | 497 | 877 | 227 | 299 | 21 | 11 | 383 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 97 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 289 | 415 | 402 | 817 | 113 | 356 | 21 | 16 | 363 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 266 | 237 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 236 | 309 | 414 | 723 | 177 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 318 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 15 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 267 | 27 | 27 | 186 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 150 | 128 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 102 | 228 | 164 | 392 | 62 | 116 | 23 | 12 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 170 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 159 | 255 | 265 | 520 | 106 | 189 | 26 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 229 | 314 | 324 | 637 | 95 | 287 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 266 | 244 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 95 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 193 | 248 | 320 | 568 | 127 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 15 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 133 | 40 | 13 | 112 | -38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 150 | 128 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 102 | 228 | 164 | 392 | 62 | 120 | 23 | 12 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Blue | — | 150 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 174 | 329 | 298 | 626 | 124 | 191 | 19 | 17 | 297 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 170 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 159 | 255 | 265 | 520 | 106 | 193 | 26 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 163 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 40 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 270 | 380 | 497 | 877 | 227 | 299 | 21 | 11 | 383 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 229 | 314 | 324 | 637 | 95 | 319 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 97 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 289 | 415 | 402 | 817 | 113 | 356 | 21 | 16 | 363 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 256 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 101 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 184 | 245 | 305 | 550 | 121 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 248 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 74 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 226 | 307 | 395 | 702 | 169 | 274 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 150 | 128 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 102 | 228 | 164 | 392 | 62 | 116 | 23 | 12 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 171 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 158 | 255 | 263 | 518 | 105 | 189 | 26 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 314 | 315 | 628 | 93 | 287 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 258 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 101 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 182 | 245 | 302 | 548 | 120 | 249 | 36 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros Blue | — | 195 | 171 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 158 | 255 | 263 | 518 | 105 | 189 | 26 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 122 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 314 | 315 | 628 | 93 | 287 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 258 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 101 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 182 | 245 | 302 | 548 | 120 | 249 | 36 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 391 | 358 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 109 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 207 | 268 | 333 | 601 | 126 | 267 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 34% | 219 | 200 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 274 | 344 | 618 | 133 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 48% | 310 | 282 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 83 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 278 | 352 | 631 | 137 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 377 | 343 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 100 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 218 | 282 | 358 | 640 | 140 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 55% | 414 | 377 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 109 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 284 | 361 | 646 | 142 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 56% | 435 | 396 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 113 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 220 | 286 | 363 | 649 | 143 | 275 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 55% | 441 | 402 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 115 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 285 | 361 | 646 | 141 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | HOU | 34% | 75 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 347 | 623 | 133 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 279 | 73 | -2 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 48% | 150 | 137 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 280 | 355 | 635 | 137 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 284 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 199 | 181 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 284 | 360 | 644 | 140 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 80 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 55% | 227 | 207 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 222 | 286 | 364 | 650 | 142 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 56% | 242 | 220 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 63 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 143 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 55% | 243 | 221 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 287 | 363 | 650 | 141 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1136 | 1035 | 230 | 46 | 5 | 30 | 81 | 300 | 11 | 22 | 9 | 222 | 286 | 363 | 649 | 141 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 71 | -27 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +25 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 131 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 46 | 172 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 221 | 284 | 361 | 645 | 140 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 288 | 71 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3112 | 2812 | 577 | 106 | 12 | 78 | 231 | 851 | 38 | 63 | 29 | 205 | 275 | 335 | 609 | 129 | 262 | 27 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -59 | +2 | +0 | -14 | +51 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 121 | 22 | 3 | 16 | 48 | 178 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 206 | 275 | 336 | 610 | 129 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -16 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 266 PAwOBA .314 → .249 (−64)K% 26.3% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .314 → .249; ISO .177 → .135; BABIP .286 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Astros · 15 PAwOBA .184 → .112 (−72)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 16.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .184 → .112; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Astros · 122 PAwOBA .364 → .271 (−93)K% 21.3% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.31% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.75% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.58% | ÷0.956 | ×0.820 | ×0.976 | ×0.995 | 24.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×0.995 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.720 | ×0.976 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.023 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .364 → .271; ISO .113 → .084; BABIP .356 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 195 PAwOBA .377 → .238 (−139)K% 20.5% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.59% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.33% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 13.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.981 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 3.49% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .377 → .238; ISO .227 → .120; BABIP .299 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 150 PAwOBA .292 → .188 (−103)K% 19.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.33% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.22% | ÷1.034 | ×0.680 | ×0.960 | ×1.008 | 9.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.077 | ×0.600 | ×0.960 | ×1.008 | 1.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.600 | ×0.960 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.950 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.17% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .292 → .188; ISO .124 → .065; BABIP .191 → .116. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).