Juan Sierra

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 208 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Astros Bl…195.270/.380/.49791047—.159/.255/.265
202519ROKHOU122.289/.415/.4022170—.229/.314/.324
202620A/ROKHOU281.226/.307/.39510750—.182/.242/.303
2027PROJMLE21MLBHOU391.207/.268/.3339769-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBHOU75.214/.276/.3472173-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBHOU150.217/.280/.3554377-0.2
Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
ISO70
wRC+41
Z-Con%41
Speed40
wOBA38
K%37
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 92%
CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Brian Sanchez (age 21) · Jhonkensy Noel (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 168 proj PA
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .266 / .330
PA168
HR4
K%28
BB%7
ISO126
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 48
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT31
scouting grade only
POWER48
scouting grade only
EYE51
scouting grade only
SPEED52
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Astros Blue — 150121 21304 25293 11 174329298626 124191 1917 297 13 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Astros Blue — 195163 441009 22407 103 270380497877 227299 2111 383 47 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Astros — 12297 28502 19262 12 289415402817 113356 2116 363 70 — — — — — —
202620 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 266237 5610110 22703 76 236309414723 177286 268 318 55 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Astros — 1511 0000 440 00 267267 2727 186 -38 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 150128 13202 18353 11 102228164392 62116 2312 188 13 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 195170 27604 15507 103 159255265520 106189 268 238 47 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 122105 24402 11382 12 229314324637 95287 319 271 70 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 266244 47817 15953 76 193248320568 127263 366 249 55 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 1513 0000 260 00 133133 4013 112 -38 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 150128 13202 18353 11 102228164392 62120 2312 188 13 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Astros Blue — 150121 21304 25293 11 174329298626 124191 1917 297 13 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 195170 27604 15507 103 159255265520 106193 268 238 47 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Astros Blue — 195163 441009 22407 103 270380497877 227299 2111 383 47 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 122105 24402 11382 12 229314324637 95319 319 271 70 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWFCL Astros — 12297 28502 19262 12 289415402817 113356 2116 363 70 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 281256 47817 181013 76 184245305550 121263 366 242 50 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 281248 5610110 26743 76 226307395702 169274 269 311 50 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 150128 13202 18353 11 102228164392 62116 2312 188 13 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 195171 27604 15507 103 158255263518 105189 268 238 47 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 122108 24402 11382 12 222314315628 93287 319 271 70 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 281258 47817 181013 76 182245302548 120249 366 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Astros Blue — 195171 27604 15507 103 158255263518 105189 268 238 47 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 122108 24402 11382 12 222314315628 93287 319 271 70 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 281258 47817 181013 76 182245302548 120249 366 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEHOU 0% 391358 741429 261094 73 207268333601 126267 287 270 69 -15 +0 +0 -2 +8 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEHOU 34% 219200 43816 15602 42 211274344618 133269 277 277 73 -7 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.4
202923 MLB MLEHOU 48% 310282 601118 22833 62 215278352631 137271 277 282 77 -9 +0 +0 -2 +7 -0.3
203024 MLB MLEHOU 53% 377343 7514210 271004 73 218282358640 140273 277 286 80 -9 +0 +0 -2 +8 -0.3
203125 MLB MLEHOU 55% 414377 8215211 301094 83 219284361646 142274 267 288 81 -9 +0 +0 -2 +9 -0.2
203226 MLB MLEHOU 56% 435396 8716212 321134 83 220286363649 143275 267 290 82 -9 +0 +0 -3 +9 -0.2
203327 MLB MLEHOU 55% 441402 8716212 321154 83 219285361646 141274 267 288 81 -10 +0 +0 -3 +10 -0.3
202822 MLB CTXHOU 34% 7569 15302 5201 11 214276347623 133273 277 279 73 -2 -0 +0 -0 +2 -0.1
202923 MLB CTXHOU 48% 150137 30614 10402 31 217280355635 137275 277 284 77 -4 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.2
203024 MLB CTXHOU 53% 199181 40815 14532 41 220284360644 140277 277 288 80 -5 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.1
203125 MLB CTXHOU 55% 227207 46916 16602 42 222286364650 142278 267 290 81 -5 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.2
203226 MLB CTXHOU 56% 242220 501017 18632 52 223288366654 143279 267 292 82 -5 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.1
203327 MLB CTXHOU 55% 243221 491016 18642 52 222287363650 141278 267 290 81 -5 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 11361035 23046530 8130011 229 222286363649 141282 267 288 71 -27 +1 +0 -7 +25 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650592 13126317 461726 135 221284361645 140281 267 288 71 -15 +0 +0 -4 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 31122812 5771061278 23185138 6329 205275335609 129262 277 273 71 -59 +2 +0 -14 +51 -2.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 12122316 481788 136 206275336610 129264 277 273 71 -16 +1 +0 -4 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 266 PAwOBA .314 → .249 (−64)K% 26.3% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.32%÷1.000×1.360——35.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.27%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0155.79%
HBP% /PA1.13%—×0.780—×1.0150.89%
Singles /BIP20.96%÷1.000×0.920×1.021×1.01519.99%
Doubles /BIP5.99%÷1.000×0.830×1.021×1.0155.15%
Triples /BIP0.60%÷1.000×0.910×1.021×1.0150.56%
Home runs /BIP5.99%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.86%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .314 → .249; ISO .177 → .135; BABIP .286 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 15 PAwOBA .184 → .112 (−72)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.67%÷1.000×1.440——38.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA26.67%÷1.000×0.620—×0.98516.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.9850.00%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .184 → .112; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 122 PAwOBA .364 → .271 (−93)K% 21.3% → 31.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.31%÷0.984×1.440——31.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.75%÷0.992×0.620—×0.9959.18%
HBP% /PA1.64%—×0.720—×0.9951.17%
Singles /BIP29.58%÷0.956×0.820×0.976×0.99524.63%
Doubles /BIP7.04%÷0.982×0.720×0.976×0.9955.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.030×0.720×0.976×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP2.82%÷1.023×0.780—×0.9952.14%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .364 → .271; ISO .113 → .084; BABIP .356 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 195 PAwOBA .377 → .238 (−139)K% 20.5% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.51%÷0.977×1.220——25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.77%÷1.002×0.700—×0.9957.49%
HBP% /PA3.59%—×0.700—×0.9952.50%
Singles /BIP20.33%÷1.010×0.680×0.996×0.99513.55%
Doubles /BIP8.13%÷0.937×0.600×0.996×0.9955.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.008×0.600×0.996×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP7.32%÷0.981×0.470—×0.9953.49%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .377 → .238; ISO .227 → .120; BABIP .299 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 150 PAwOBA .292 → .188 (−103)K% 19.3% → 23.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.33%÷1.005×1.220——23.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.992×0.700—×1.00811.85%
HBP% /PA2.00%—×0.700—×1.0081.41%
Singles /BIP15.22%÷1.034×0.680×0.960×1.0089.67%
Doubles /BIP3.26%÷1.077×0.600×0.960×1.0081.76%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.030×0.600×0.960×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷0.950×0.470—×1.0082.17%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .292 → .188; ISO .124 → .065; BABIP .191 → .116. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).