Juan Sierra — OGILVIE

Juan SierraOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 208 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION162 act + 108 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .271 / .364

PA108

HR3

K%32

BB%6

BABIP290

ISO152

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	130	15	2	0	3	16	41	3	1	1	115	228	200	428	85	138	27	11	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	0	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	172	34	8	0	7	13	60	7	10	3	198	281	366	648	169	250	31	7	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	0	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	122	105	23	4	0	1	11	39	2	1	2	219	305	286	591	67	319	32	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	0	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	HOU	—	162	150	27	5	1	5	9	70	2	3	4	180	236	327	563	147	289	43	6	236	38	-11	-1	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
YTD	20	A	HOU	—	162	145	33	7	1	6	14	49	2	3	4	228	304	414	718	186	297	30	9	318	102	+0	-1	+0	-1	+5	0.3
ROS	20	A	HOU	0%	108	99	21	4	1	3	7	35	1	2	1	212	271	364	635	152	274	32	6	267	63	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	261	58	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	A	HOU	—	162	151	27	5	1	5	9	70	2	3	4	179	236	325	561	146	286	43	6	236	38	-11	-1	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
TOT	20	A	HOU	—	270	249	48	9	2	8	16	105	3	5	5	193	250	341	591	149	290	39	6	248	48	-16	-1	+0	-2	+8	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	HOU	34%	290	264	53	10	1	8	20	91	4	5	3	201	267	337	604	136	276	31	7	278	71	-10	-0	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	HOU	48%	394	358	76	14	2	12	28	119	5	7	4	212	279	363	642	151	278	30	7	286	77	-10	-0	+0	-2	+11	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	HOU	54%	458	415	89	17	2	14	34	136	6	9	4	214	284	366	650	152	280	30	7	291	81	-10	+0	+0	-3	+13	0.1
2030	24	MLB	HOU	55%	500	453	99	19	2	16	37	147	6	10	5	219	286	375	662	157	281	29	7	294	84	-9	+0	+0	-3	+14	0.2
2031	25	MLB	HOU	56%	521	470	102	19	2	17	39	153	7	10	5	217	287	374	661	157	281	29	7	296	84	-9	+0	+0	-3	+15	0.3
2027	21	MLB	HOU	34%	100	92	19	4	0	3	7	31	1	2	1	207	270	348	618	141	278	31	7	272	66	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	HOU	48%	191	173	37	7	1	6	14	58	2	4	2	214	280	370	650	156	281	30	7	280	73	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	HOU	54%	248	225	48	9	1	8	18	74	3	5	2	213	280	369	649	156	283	30	7	286	77	-7	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	HOU	55%	277	250	55	11	1	9	21	81	4	5	3	220	291	380	671	160	284	29	8	289	79	-7	-0	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2031	25	MLB	HOU	56%	292	264	58	11	1	10	22	86	4	6	3	220	290	383	672	163	284	29	8	290	80	-7	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1108	1005	217	42	4	36	82	330	14	22	11	216	285	373	658	157	281	30	7	285	77	-29	+0	+0	-7	+31	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	127	25	2	21	48	194	8	13	6	215	283	371	654	156	281	30	7	285	77	-17	+0	+0	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2738	2466	512	97	10	81	205	821	41	55	28	208	279	354	633	146	272	30	7	283	75	-78	-0	+0	-16	+78	-1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	121	23	2	19	49	195	10	13	7	207	280	350	630	144	271	30	8	283	75	-19	-0	+0	-4	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	85	-3	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	151	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	136	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,266	39	24	215	280	367	-8	+0	-0.1	0.1
	/162	664	20	13	215	280	367	-4.0	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Sierra (OGILVIE)	20	24→29	47→52	48→53	50	193/250/341	149	290	8	5	39%	6%	48	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	41→34	42→60	47→50	44	201/268/307	106	272	10	12	29%	7%	59	-1.1	209/264/358	149	293	18	11	34%	6%	70	-0.3	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	38→34	48→50	53→50	42	192/272/344	152	278	15	13	35%	8%	70	-0.3	196/254/341	145	281	17	14	35%	6%	62	-0.9	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	39→43	45→50	49→50	40	199/265/323	124	270	13	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	211/270/351	140	268	18	5	28%	6%	72	-0.2	205/264/342	137	255	19	5	27%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Orelvis Martinez 2021 · A	19	42→36	47→60	53→40	42	213/270/351	139	273	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.3	202/270/401	199	257	27	4	33%	7%	85	+0.7	187/258/394	206	226	30	3	33%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	47→45	43	190/252/303	113	229	13	12	24%	6%	51	-1.7	224/274/348	124	267	13	8	21%	5%	72	-0.2	259/302/380	121	288	12	8	14%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jeter Downs 2018 · A	20	42→40	43→50	47→55	47	208/276/316	107	257	11	9	23%	7%	64	-0.8	211/277/355	144	271	15	17	27%	7%	75	-0.0	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→45	48→55	50	41	195/268/337	143	297	17	12	38%	8%	67	-0.5	211/276/338	127	323	13	9	36%	7%	70	-0.3	226/295/388	162	313	20	6	32%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Brayan Buelvas 2022 · A	20	38→40	44→50	51→55	40	195/255/315	120	270	12	13	32%	6%	55	-1.4	189/251/317	128	263	13	17	32%	6%	54	-1.4	182/244/294	112	275	11	14	36%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→35	41→45	53→50	41	222/281/319	97	293	8	13	26%	6%	67	-0.5	197/253/262	65	273	3	10	27%	6%	40	-2.4	177/233/223	47	249	1	10	27%	5%	21	-2.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Malcom Nuñez 2021 · A	20	46→42	46→45	50→45	44	229/285/358	129	285	14	6	25%	6%	79	+0.3	223/284/344	121	292	14	6	27%	7%	75	-0.0	217/283/338	121	282	16	4	28%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9