Juan Sierra — OGILVIE

Juan SierraOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 208 lbs A H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.6 · 2033

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .295 / .364

PA120

HR3

K%28

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

27↗32

PWR

47↗52

SPD

48↗53

EYE

47↗52

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$22M	+$21M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$24M	+$23M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.6	$26M	+$25M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$24M	+$20M
2035	Arb-2	$7M	+2.3	$24M	+$17M
2036	Arb-3	$10M	+2.0	$22M	+$12M
Totals		$25M		$142M	+$117M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	150	130	15	2	0	3	16	41	3	1	1	.115	.228	.200	.428	.085	.138	27	11	.204	14	-15	-0	+0	-1	+4	-1.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	195	172	34	8	0	7	13	60	7	10	3	.198	.281	.366	.648	.169	.250	31	7	.276	69	-7	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	122	105	23	4	0	1	11	39	2	1	2	.219	.305	.286	.591	.067	.319	32	9	.278	71	-4	-1	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	50	47	9	2	0	2	2	24	1	1	1	.191	.240	.362	.602	.170	.333	48	4	.277	70	-2	-0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	HOU	70	63	14	3	0	2	6	21	1	1	0	.222	.300	.365	.665	.143	.287	30	9	.294	83	-1	+0	+0	-0	+2	0.0
TOT	20	MLB	HOU	120	110	23	5	0	4	8	45	2	2	1	.209	.275	.364	.639	.155	.311	38	7	.287	78	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	HOU	220	195	46	9	1	7	20	51	3	5	2	.236	.317	.400	.717	.164	.279	23	9	.321	104	+1	+0	+0	-1	+6	0.6
2028	22	MLB 28%	HOU	341	301	73	14	2	12	32	77	5	8	2	.243	.325	.422	.747	.179	.280	23	9	.329	110	+4	+1	+0	-2	+10	1.2
2029	23	MLB 48%	HOU	422	372	91	17	2	16	41	94	6	9	3	.245	.329	.430	.759	.185	.281	22	10	.334	114	+7	+1	+0	-3	+12	1.7
2030	24	MLB 62%	HOU	475	417	102	19	2	18	48	104	7	10	3	.245	.333	.429	.762	.185	.282	22	10	.338	117	+9	+1	+0	-3	+13	2.1
2031	25	MLB 80%	HOU	505	441	109	20	2	20	52	110	7	11	3	.247	.336	.438	.774	.190	.282	22	10	.341	119	+11	+1	+0	-3	+14	2.4
2032	26	MLB 94%	HOU	522	456	112	21	2	20	54	113	7	11	3	.246	.335	.432	.767	.186	.283	22	10	.343	121	+12	+1	+0	-3	+15	2.5
2033	27	MLB	HOU	528	460	114	21	2	21	56	115	7	11	3	.248	.338	.439	.778	.191	.283	22	11	.343	121	+12	+1	+0	-3	+15	2.6
2034	28	MLB	HOU	527	459	112	21	2	20	56	116	7	10	3	.244	.335	.429	.764	.185	.282	22	11	.342	120	+12	+1	-1	-3	+15	2.4
2035	29	MLB	HOU	520	453	111	21	2	20	55	116	7	10	2	.245	.336	.433	.769	.188	.282	22	11	.340	118	+11	+1	-1	-3	+15	2.3
2036	30	MLB	HOU	511	444	107	20	2	19	55	116	7	9	2	.241	.334	.423	.757	.182	.280	23	11	.337	116	+9	+1	-2	-3	+14	2.0
2037	31	MLB	HOU	498	435	103	19	2	18	53	115	7	8	1	.237	.329	.414	.743	.177	.279	23	11	.333	113	+7	+1	-3	-3	+14	1.7
2038	32	MLB	HOU	480	420	98	18	2	17	51	113	6	7	1	.233	.325	.407	.732	.174	.277	24	11	.328	109	+5	+1	-4	-3	+14	1.4
2039	33	MLB	HOU	451	394	92	17	2	16	48	109	6	7	0	.234	.326	.409	.735	.175	.275	24	11	.322	105	+2	+1	-4	-3	+13	1.0
2040	34	MLB	HOU	405	354	78	14	1	13	43	102	5	6	0	.220	.313	.376	.689	.155	.273	25	11	.316	100	-0	+1	-5	-2	+11	0.5
2041	35	MLB	HOU	351	307	67	12	1	11	37	92	4	6	0	.218	.310	.371	.682	.153	.271	26	11	.307	93	-3	+1	-6	-2	+10	0.1
2042	36	MLB	HOU	292	256	55	10	1	9	30	79	4	5	0	.215	.307	.367	.674	.152	.268	27	10	.298	86	-5	+1	-6	-2	+8	-0.3
2043	37	MLB	HOU	229	201	41	7	1	6	23	64	3	4	0	.204	.295	.338	.633	.134	.263	28	10	.288	78	-6	+1	-7	-1	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7814	6835	1597	297	29	276	800	1847	111	150	34	.234	.324	.407	.731	.173	.278	24	10	.325	107	+63	+16	-38	-47	+221	22.0
/ 162G	—			650	569	133	25	2	23	67	154	9	12	3	.234	.325	.406	.731	.172	.278	24	10	.325	107	+5	+1	-3	-4	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	150	121	21	3	4	25	29	3	1	1	.174	.329	.298	.626	.124	.191	19	17	.297	85	-3	-0	—	—	+4	0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	195	163	44	10	9	22	40	7	10	3	.270	.380	.497	.877	.227	.299	21	11	.383	151	+11	+1	—	—	+6	1.8
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	122	97	28	5	2	19	26	2	1	2	.289	.415	.402	.817	.113	.356	21	16	.363	136	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Sierra (OGILVIE)	20	27→32	47→52	48→53	52	.219/.295/.364	.144	.283	3	2	28%	8%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Oliver Carrillo 2023 · A	21	47→27	51→50	52→45	45	.230/.306/.392	.162	.324	19	7	33%	9%	97	+1.5	.204/.307/.350	.146	.309	17	5	36%	11%	88	+0.9	.169/.276/.297	.128	.264	17	3	39%	10%	60	-0.5
✕Alexander Canario 2021 · A	21	43→34	49→60	48→50	40	.217/.277/.364	.147	.303	17	8	33%	7%	77	+0.1	.205/.259/.386	.181	.288	24	14	36%	7%	76	+0.1	.209/.277/.424	.216	.279	30	13	36%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	.214/.294/.340	.125	.274	14	15	26%	8%	79	+0.3	.220/.281/.362	.142	.292	16	13	29%	7%	79	+0.3	.205/.253/.387	.182	.264	22	15	31%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	38→36	49→50	53→50	42	.198/.271/.352	.155	.274	16	13	33%	7%	72	-0.2	.199/.257/.341	.142	.284	16	13	34%	6%	63	-0.8	.197/.258/.362	.165	.284	22	15	38%	7%	67	-0.3
●Jerry Sands 2009 · A	21	37→46	49→60	51→45	45	.195/.277/.339	.144	.267	18	8	33%	9%	72	-0.2	.231/.297/.425	.194	.284	25	6	27%	8%	102	+1.9	.233/.299/.438	.204	.278	26	7	26%	8%	105	+1.8
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→46	51→60	55→45	46	.247/.313/.408	.161	.309	18	12	26%	8%	104	+2.0	.226/.295/.404	.178	.302	21	6	31%	8%	95	+1.4	.224/.304/.422	.198	.291	24	4	30%	9%	102	+1.6
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	39→40	46→55	50	46	.198/.273/.333	.136	.268	13	8	30%	8%	68	-0.5	.186/.271/.313	.127	.268	12	8	33%	10%	63	-0.9	.191/.263/.361	.170	.260	21	12	35%	8%	69	-0.3
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→52	51→65	52→45	44	.239/.294/.391	.152	.285	20	9	24%	6%	92	+1.2	.256/.303/.451	.195	.298	27	6	24%	6%	111	+2.5	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	46→50	53→55	45	.189/.278/.319	.129	.289	14	15	37%	10%	67	-0.5	.210/.289/.331	.121	.326	12	16	36%	9%	74	-0.1	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→50	46→65	53→55	41	.204/.264/.340	.136	.276	13	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.252/.330	.138	.298	14	15	38%	7%	58	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Orelvis Martinez 2021 · A	19	42→35	47→60	53→40	42	.213/.270/.351	.139	.273	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.3	.204/.270/.403	.199	.260	27	4	33%	7%	85	+0.7	.189/.259/.396	.207	.229	30	3	33%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→44	45→50	48→55	46	.232/.304/.355	.124	.309	12	12	28%	8%	86	+0.8	.239/.303/.370	.131	.306	13	16	25%	7%	89	+1.0	.238/.303/.382	.143	.296	14	19	24%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	40	45→50	49→50	41	.203/.270/.328	.125	.273	12	8	30%	6%	66	-0.6	.212/.271/.357	.145	.264	19	5	27%	6%	73	-0.1	.206/.264/.348	.141	.251	20	5	26%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2022 · A	20	39	53→60	50→40	50	.206/.307/.380	.174	.255	20	8	28%	10%	95	+1.4	.202/.267/.371	.169	.280	23	5	35%	7%	76	+0.0	.207/.272/.399	.191	.261	26	2	31%	7%	82	+0.4
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	46→44	51→65	54→50	37	.230/.278/.398	.168	.315	18	12	32%	5%	86	+0.8	.220/.270/.377	.157	.318	18	10	35%	5%	78	+0.2	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
✕Rodolfo Nolasco 2022 · A	20	43→32	47→50	45	44	.217/.287/.356	.139	.283	15	4	28%	7%	79	+0.3	.183/.267/.320	.137	.341	15	7	46%	9%	63	-0.9	.155/.244/.286	.131	.302	16	8	50%	9%	42	-1.4
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	48→65	46→40	45	.235/.283/.379	.144	.263	16	5	18%	6%	83	+0.6	.245/.298/.376	.131	.281	12	5	17%	6%	89	+0.9	.268/.322/.383	.115	.301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	39→49	53→70	46→45	43	.208/.278/.385	.177	.285	21	5	34%	8%	84	+0.6	.226/.306/.449	.223	.311	28	7	35%	9%	112	+2.6	.243/.334/.470	.227	.340	31	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	50	43	.213/.273/.339	.126	.289	12	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	.229/.292/.389	.160	.276	19	13	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.230/.293/.405	.176	.264	22	16	22%	7%	92	+1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)