Juan Sierra — OGILVIE

Juan SierraOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 208 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION281 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP268

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	0	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	87	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	0	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	145	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	0	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	132	+5	-1	—	—	+3	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	130	16	2	0	3	16	42	3	1	1	123	235	208	443	85	140	28	11	204	24	-14	-0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	172	33	7	0	7	13	59	7	10	3	192	276	355	631	163	234	30	7	275	72	-6	+1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	105	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	229	314	324	637	95	288	31	9	272	70	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.2
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	130	16	2	0	3	16	42	3	1	1	123	235	208	443	85	151	28	11	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	0	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	172	33	7	0	7	13	59	7	10	3	192	276	355	631	163	239	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	0	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	105	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	229	314	324	637	95	319	31	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	0	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	130	16	2	0	3	16	42	3	1	1	123	235	208	443	85	140	28	11	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	173	33	7	0	7	13	59	7	10	3	191	276	353	629	162	234	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	108	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	222	314	315	628	93	288	31	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	130	16	2	0	3	16	42	3	1	1	123	235	208	443	85	140	28	11	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	173	33	7	0	7	13	59	7	10	3	191	276	353	629	162	234	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	108	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	222	314	315	628	93	288	31	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	HOU	—	281	258	47	8	1	8	16	105	3	7	6	182	238	314	552	132	262	37	6	241	49	-17	-1	+0	-2	+6	-1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	HOU	—	15	11	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0		267		267			27	27	186	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	HOU	—	266	237	56	10	1	10	22	70	3	7	6	236	309	414	723	177	286	26	8	318	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	HOU	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		267	33	11	261	63	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	HOU	—	290	266	48	8	1	8	17	108	3	7	6	180	238	308	546	128	260	37	6	241	50	-17	-1	+0	-2	+6	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	307	278	56	10	1	9	22	97	4	5	3	201	270	342	611	140	270	32	7	274	72	-10	-0	+0	-2	+7	-0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	105	96	20	4	0	3	7	33	1	2	1	208	269	344	613	135	272	31	7	264	72	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	105	96	20	4	0	3	7	33	1	2	1	208	269	344	613	135	279	31	7	264	62	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	124	25	0	19	43	204	6	12	6	209	269	347	615	138	279	31	7	264	62	-22	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	783	693	130	23	1	21	63	239	16	17	9	188	271	315	585	127	246	31	8	260	62	-11	-0	+0	-2	+7	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	108	19	1	17	52	198	13	14	7	188	270	313	583	125	247	30	8	260	62	-22	-0	+0	-4	+14	-1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	272	7	5	203	270	336	-2	+0	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	18	11	-4.0	+0.0	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Sierra (OGILVIE)	20	27→32	47→52	48→53	49	192/256/319	127	267	4	3	33%	7%	63	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	46→50	50	46	194/272/327	133	266	12	8	31%	9%	70	-0.8	183/267/307	124	271	12	8	34%	10%	64	-1.3	190/261/345	156	258	19	12	33%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	40→42	45→50	49→50	41	200/269/322	122	272	12	8	30%	6%	68	-1.0	213/273/348	135	267	17	5	26%	6%	75	-0.5	208/267/338	130	255	17	5	26%	6%	68	-0.8
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	39→36	48→50	53→50	43	199/278/351	152	282	14	13	33%	8%	78	-0.3	201/259/343	142	288	16	14	35%	6%	69	-0.9	194/255/352	157	279	21	15	37%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	215/264/381	166	280	22	5	31%	5%	80	-0.2	195/249/365	169	248	24	1	32%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	41→33	45→55	52→50	39	207/251/337	130	273	12	14	29%	5%	63	-1.3	187/234/345	158	264	20	4	37%	5%	60	-1.6	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Orelvis Martinez 2021 · A	19	42→34	47→60	53→40	42	213/270/351	139	273	14	6	27%	6%	74	-0.5	198/263/384	186	253	25	4	32%	7%	80	-0.1	183/252/373	190	223	27	3	32%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Nolasco 2022 · A	20	43→33	48→50	46→45	44	215/287/357	142	293	15	4	31%	8%	82	+0.0	181/265/316	135	341	15	7	47%	9%	65	-1.2	155/244/286	131	303	16	8	50%	9%	49	-1.5
✕Brayan Buelvas 2022 · A	20	37→43	45	51→55	40	193/254/318	125	267	13	13	32%	6%	61	-1.5	189/251/316	127	262	13	17	32%	6%	59	-1.6	197/258/324	127	284	12	14	34%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Sherten Apostel 2019 · A	20	39→34	46→50	44→40	49	197/287/326	129	280	14	5	33%	10%	76	-0.4	197/264/321	124	290	14	3	35%	8%	65	-1.2	187/252/312	125	273	16	1	36%	7%	56	-1.2
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Jeter Downs 2018 · A	20	42→40	43→50	47→55	47	208/276/316	107	257	11	9	23%	7%	68	-1.0	211/277/351	140	270	15	17	27%	7%	78	-0.3	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Yordyn Calderon 2014 · A	20	41	45	47→50	44	205/278/332	128	282	12	11	30%	8%	74	-0.6	190/262/281	91	293	7	11	35%	7%	55	-1.9	122/202/172	50	212	2	13	40%	6%	8	-2.0
✕Junior Perez 2021 · A	20	37→39	44→50	50→55	40	186/256/304	118	288	12	11	38%	8%	59	-1.7	180/254/290	110	326	11	20	44%	9%	55	-2.0	167/239/308	141	259	16	25	40%	8%	52	-1.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Zack Larson 2014 · A	20	46→36	41→45	53→50	41	222/281/319	97	293	8	13	26%	6%	71	-0.8	201/256/267	66	276	3	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	183/239/232	49	254	1	10	26%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Roger Caraballo 2022 · A	20	40	44→45	51→40	41	198/266/313	115	269	11	5	29%	6%	65	-1.2	194/253/297	103	303	9	6	37%	6%	55	-1.9	128/179/225	97	214	11	5	45%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Michael Bernal 2012 · A	20	41	47→50	48→50	41	201/280/336	135	313	15	13	38%	8%	75	-0.5	200/267/325	125	366	13	10	45%	7%	68	-1.0	139/188/261	121	300	17	10	57%	4%	20	-0.8
✕Rayne Doncon 2023 · A	19	39→37	48→50	50→40	41	205/250/347	143	255	16	8	27%	6%	65	-1.2	189/246/310	121	254	13	5	30%	6%	56	-1.9	157/226/265	108	208	12	5	30%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→37	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	61	-1.5	191/271/310	119	332	11	13	42%	9%	65	-1.2	167/259/302	135	291	13	18	43%	10%	57	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps