Luis Baez — OGILVIE

Luis BaezOF Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 225 lbs AA H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .252 / .334

PA318

HR8

SB5

K%33

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗35

PWR

45↗55

SPD

40→40

FLD

30↗50

EYE

38↘30

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-5M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	222	210	42	11	1	7	7	84	2	10	7	.200	.233	.362	.595	.162	.287	38	3	.256	54	-12	-1	+0	-1	+6	-0.8
2023	19	A	2 teams	255	226	41	11	1	7	21	85	5	1	1	.181	.266	.332	.598	.150	.248	33	8	.259	56	-13	-0	+0	-2	+7	-0.7
2024	20	A+	2 teams	468	442	85	17	0	16	19	161	0	11	1	.192	.226	.339	.565	.147	.254	34	4	.244	45	-29	+2	+0	-3	+13	-1.7
2025	21	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	272	253	56	11	2	2	17	89	1	7	0	.221	.273	.304	.577	.083	.331	33	6	.252	51	-15	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	58	55	8	1	0	0	1	12	0	1	2	.145	.161	.164	.324	.018	.178	21	2	.143	-32	-9	-1	+0	-0	+2	-0.8
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	260	244	48	9	1	6	13	82	1	4	2	.197	.240	.316	.556	.119	.270	32	5	.249	49	-15	+0	-1	-2	+7	-1.0
TOT	22	MLB	HOU	318	299	56	10	1	6	14	94	1	5	4	.187	.226	.288	.514	.100	.248	30	4	.230	34	-24	-1	-1	-2	+9	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 12%	HOU	370	344	72	14	1	10	22	103	1	6	2	.209	.259	.343	.602	.134	.264	28	6	.269	64	-15	+0	-1	-2	+10	-0.8
2028	24	MLB 27%	HOU	432	399	85	16	1	13	28	117	2	7	2	.213	.268	.356	.624	.143	.268	27	6	.281	73	-13	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.4
2029	25	MLB 44%	HOU	463	427	94	18	2	15	31	124	2	7	2	.220	.276	.377	.653	.157	.270	27	7	.289	79	-11	+1	-1	-3	+13	-0.2
2030	26	MLB 59%	HOU	480	442	98	18	2	16	33	128	2	7	2	.222	.279	.380	.659	.158	.271	27	7	.293	82	-10	+1	-2	-3	+14	0.0
2031	27	MLB 77%	HOU	485	446	98	18	2	16	34	130	2	7	2	.220	.278	.377	.655	.157	.271	27	7	.293	82	-10	+1	-2	-3	+14	0.0
2032	28	MLB 84%	HOU	484	444	98	18	2	16	35	130	2	6	2	.221	.281	.378	.659	.158	.271	27	7	.292	81	-10	+0	-2	-3	+14	-0.1
2033	29	MLB 91%	HOU	476	437	96	18	2	16	34	129	2	5	1	.220	.279	.380	.659	.160	.270	27	7	.290	80	-11	+1	-3	-3	+13	-0.3
2034	30	MLB	HOU	466	427	92	17	1	15	34	128	2	5	1	.215	.276	.365	.642	.150	.269	27	7	.286	77	-12	+1	-4	-3	+13	-0.5
2035	31	MLB	HOU	453	415	87	16	1	14	33	127	2	3	0	.210	.271	.354	.625	.145	.267	28	7	.283	75	-13	+1	-4	-3	+13	-0.7
2036	32	MLB	HOU	435	399	83	15	1	13	31	124	2	2	0	.208	.269	.348	.617	.140	.265	29	7	.278	71	-14	+0	-5	-3	+12	-0.9
2037	33	MLB	HOU	406	372	77	14	1	12	29	118	2	1	0	.207	.268	.347	.615	.140	.264	29	7	.272	67	-15	+0	-6	-2	+12	-1.2
2038	34	MLB	HOU	361	331	67	12	1	10	26	108	1	1	0	.202	.263	.335	.598	.133	.262	30	7	.266	62	-16	+0	-6	-2	+10	-1.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6788	6258	1319	253	22	204	447	1967	31	90	25	.211	.267	.356	.623	.145	.270	29	7	.276	70	-233	+8	-38	-41	+192	-11.3
/ 162G	—			650	599	126	24	2	20	43	188	3	9	2	.210	.267	.357	.624	.147	.268	29	7	.276	70	-22	+1	-4	-4	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	222	203	62	19	2	9	14	56	2	10	7	.305	.356	.552	.908	.246	.376	25	6	.390	157	+14	-1	—	—	+6	2.0
2023	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	179	155	37	13	1	4	17	48	4	0	0	.239	.330	.413	.742	.174	.311	27	9	.328	109	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2023	19	ROK	FCL Astros	76	59	16	2	0	7	16	14	1	1	1	.271	.434	.661	1.095	.390	.237	18	21	.465	214	+10	-0	—	—	+2	1.2
2024	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	61	51	11	3	0	1	8	11	0	2	0	.216	.322	.333	.655	.118	.244	18	13	.293	82	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	20	A+	Asheville Tourists	407	380	100	22	0	20	22	111	0	9	1	.263	.303	.479	.782	.216	.315	27	5	.338	117	+8	+1	—	—	+12	2.1
2025	21	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	272	248	61	12	2	2	22	73	1	7	0	.246	.310	.335	.645	.089	.339	27	8	.293	82	-5	+1	—	—	+8	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Baez (OGILVIE)	22	30→35	45→55	40	30	.205/.252/.334	.129	.286	8	5	33%	6%	59	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2017 · A	22	37→32	51→55	46→50	36	.200/.247/.364	.164	.270	19	9	34%	5%	65	-0.7	.183/.234/.337	.154	.257	20	4	37%	5%	53	-1.5	.194/.269/.375	.181	.237	26	7	31%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	36→42	48→55	46→50	34	.192/.230/.332	.140	.264	16	6	34%	4%	49	-1.8	.213/.267/.378	.165	.281	21	8	31%	6%	77	+0.1	.207/.276/.361	.154	.269	19	11	30%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Yusuf Carter 2007 · A	22	37→34	46→50	45→50	35	.194/.240/.317	.122	.287	15	6	37%	5%	49	-1.8	.202/.239/.339	.137	.300	16	10	37%	5%	54	-1.4	.219/.264/.370	.151	.296	19	10	32%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Anthony García 2014 · A	22	39→46	50→55	44→45	38	.205/.262/.360	.155	.274	17	5	31%	5%	71	-0.3	.206/.273/.348	.142	.258	15	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	.218/.290/.362	.145	.263	18	4	24%	7%	81	+0.3
●Felix Reyes 2023 · A	22	37→47	43→50	46→45	35	.188/.235/.293	.105	.267	11	8	34%	4%	40	-2.4	.221/.258/.346	.125	.263	15	7	22%	4%	64	-0.8	.241/.274/.386	.144	.275	17	8	19%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Sam Huff 2020 · A	22	36→40	48→55	45	30	.189/.231/.327	.138	.297	17	6	42%	4%	48	-1.9	.210/.257/.375	.165	.328	23	4	41%	5%	72	-0.2	.214/.277/.391	.177	.310	27	1	38%	7%	81	+0.2
●Jose Vargas 2010 · A	22	39	46→60	46→40	33	.201/.232/.327	.126	.274	14	4	32%	3%	48	-1.9	.197/.233/.308	.111	.276	12	4	32%	4%	43	-2.2	.222/.257/.420	.198	.282	29	3	33%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Moisés Gómez 2022 · AA	23	33→42	45→60	44→45	32	.165/.225/.286	.121	.300	14	7	48%	6%	36	-2.7	.198/.252/.381	.183	.307	26	8	42%	6%	72	-0.2	.191/.245/.379	.188	.277	28	6	41%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Alex Jackson 2018 · AA	22	39→36	49→60	42→30	34	.202/.257/.344	.142	.293	17	3	36%	5%	64	-0.8	.189/.249/.355	.166	.284	22	3	40%	5%	65	-0.7	.196/.267/.378	.181	.267	24	2	35%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Quincy Latimore 2012 · AA	23	40→42	46→50	44→50	34	.204/.249/.336	.132	.288	14	6	34%	4%	58	-1.2	.210/.262/.339	.129	.285	14	10	31%	6%	65	-0.7	.217/.269/.354	.137	.281	15	10	28%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	35	46→50	45→40	40	.185/.251/.313	.128	.265	15	5	35%	7%	53	-1.5	.209/.268/.329	.120	.279	13	4	28%	7%	65	-0.7	.211/.271/.321	.110	.275	12	2	27%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Chad Spann 2006 · AA	22	40→37	45	40	38	.204/.257/.328	.124	.286	13	4	33%	6%	59	-1.1	.215/.267/.332	.117	.301	11	4	31%	5%	64	-0.8	.207/.258/.309	.102	.291	10	2	31%	5%	51	-1.0
●Jordy Lara 2013 · A	22	35→45	45→55	45→40	39	.184/.241/.305	.121	.252	13	3	32%	6%	47	-1.9	.228/.273/.372	.144	.286	15	2	25%	5%	77	+0.1	.238/.285/.390	.152	.294	15	1	24%	5%	85	+0.6
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2021 · A	22	31→35	46→50	42→45	32	.167/.225/.287	.120	.280	15	4	44%	6%	36	-2.7	.192/.258/.337	.145	.299	19	6	40%	6%	63	-0.8	.184/.253/.325	.140	.284	19	5	40%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Jacob Heyward 2018 · A	22	40	44→50	45→50	40	.197/.265/.313	.116	.295	12	8	36%	7%	59	-1.1	.197/.279/.317	.120	.298	13	10	35%	9%	67	-0.5	.181/.276/.317	.136	.268	16	9	36%	10%	63	-0.5
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	39→45	44→55	45	38	.198/.254/.311	.113	.271	13	5	31%	5%	54	-1.4	.226/.268/.393	.167	.263	22	4	23%	4%	82	+0.5	.223/.272/.390	.167	.250	20	4	20%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	37→44	49→50	49→45	39	.195/.252/.345	.150	.266	17	9	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.209/.268/.346	.137	.291	14	7	32%	7%	69	-0.4	.213/.268/.374	.161	.271	20	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Deivy Grullón 2018 · AA	22	42→43	44→55	38→30	36	.210/.245/.321	.111	.284	12	2	30%	4%	52	-1.6	.231/.272/.389	.158	.308	21	3	31%	5%	82	+0.5	.218/.265/.393	.175	.292	26	1	34%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jack Herman 2022 · A	22	37	48→50	43→45	34	.192/.241/.332	.140	.300	17	6	41%	6%	53	-1.5	.191/.238/.291	.100	.315	11	7	40%	6%	41	-2.3	.171/.217/.226	.055	.262	8	3	37%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Carlos Rincon 2021 · AA	23	37→39	50→55	46→45	40	.197/.265/.347	.151	.284	19	5	37%	7%	69	-0.4	.212/.263/.376	.164	.301	21	6	36%	6%	75	-0.0	.203/.253/.375	.171	.279	24	4	36%	5%	66	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)