Emilio Guerrero
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 392 | .238/.285/.345 | 4 | 6 | 48 | — | .201/.235/.286 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA/A+TOR | 345 | .283/.340/.502 | 13 | 6 | 86 | — | .241/.284/.417 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA/ROK2 orgs | 301 | .271/.320/.386 | 4 | 2 | 62 | — | .239/.277/.330 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 197 | 180 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 239 | 297 | 311 | 609 | 72 | 323 | 24 | 6 | 276 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 155 | 136 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 298 | 353 | 651 | 132 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 287 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 391 | 343 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 58 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 358 | 402 | 760 | 125 | 311 | 15 | 10 | 339 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 392 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 107 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 305 | 385 | 691 | 128 | 330 | 25 | 5 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 195 | 183 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 269 | 328 | 597 | 98 | 303 | 26 | 5 | 266 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 115 | 106 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 298 | 368 | 666 | 123 | 305 | 20 | 6 | 296 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 82 | 76 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 250 | 305 | 355 | 660 | 105 | 333 | 26 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 163 | 149 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 282 | 331 | 463 | 794 | 181 | 333 | 21 | 6 | 344 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 182 | 162 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 284 | 348 | 537 | 885 | 253 | 304 | 18 | 8 | 377 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 286 | 266 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 263 | 312 | 376 | 688 | 113 | 320 | 20 | 6 | 308 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 15 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 429 | 467 | 571 | 1.038 | 143 | 545 | 20 | 7 | 459 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 197 | 183 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 158 | 210 | 208 | 418 | 49 | 217 | 29 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 155 | 141 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 156 | 212 | 234 | 446 | 78 | 226 | 34 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 391 | 357 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 79 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 246 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 98 | 290 | 20 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 397 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 150 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 248 | 292 | 540 | 86 | 304 | 35 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 195 | 186 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 228 | 269 | 497 | 70 | 287 | 33 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 115 | 108 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 246 | 315 | 560 | 111 | 278 | 30 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 163 | 152 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 287 | 382 | 669 | 132 | 310 | 27 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 182 | 167 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 281 | 449 | 730 | 216 | 267 | 26 | 5 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 286 | 271 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 69 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 274 | 328 | 602 | 92 | 300 | 24 | 5 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 15 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 357 | 690 | 71 | 405 | 27 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 197 | 183 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 158 | 210 | 208 | 418 | 49 | 230 | 29 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 197 | 180 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 239 | 297 | 311 | 609 | 72 | 323 | 24 | 6 | 276 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 155 | 141 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 156 | 212 | 234 | 446 | 78 | 236 | 34 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 155 | 136 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 221 | 298 | 353 | 651 | 132 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 287 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 391 | 357 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 79 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 246 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 98 | 298 | 20 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 391 | 343 | 95 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 58 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 358 | 402 | 760 | 125 | 311 | 15 | 10 | 339 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 397 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 150 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 248 | 292 | 540 | 86 | 314 | 35 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 392 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 107 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 258 | 305 | 385 | 691 | 128 | 330 | 25 | 5 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 392 | 372 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 125 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 234 | 282 | 516 | 83 | 289 | 32 | 4 | 224 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 392 | 365 | 87 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 95 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 238 | 285 | 345 | 631 | 107 | 310 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 319 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 92 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 238 | 281 | 408 | 689 | 169 | 297 | 27 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 345 | 311 | 88 | 23 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 67 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 283 | 340 | 502 | 842 | 219 | 318 | 19 | 7 | 361 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 286 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 273 | 329 | 602 | 91 | 310 | 25 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 301 | 280 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 320 | 386 | 706 | 114 | 332 | 20 | 6 | 315 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 197 | 183 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 158 | 210 | 208 | 418 | 49 | 217 | 29 | 4 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 155 | 144 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 153 | 212 | 229 | 441 | 76 | 226 | 34 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 391 | 359 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 79 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 245 | 303 | 343 | 646 | 97 | 290 | 20 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 399 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 150 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 248 | 291 | 539 | 85 | 304 | 35 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 392 | 372 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 125 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 234 | 282 | 516 | 83 | 284 | 32 | 4 | 224 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 345 | 323 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 92 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 235 | 281 | 402 | 684 | 167 | 287 | 27 | 5 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 301 | 284 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 273 | 331 | 604 | 92 | 305 | 25 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2205 | 2055 | 439 | 92 | 12 | 28 | 104 | 630 | 19 | 43 | 18 | 214 | 258 | 311 | 569 | 97 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 247 | 54 | -122 | +1 | +0 | +24 | +48 | -5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 129 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 186 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 213 | 259 | 310 | 569 | 97 | 290 | 29 | 5 | 247 | 54 | -36 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 286 PAwOBA .301 → .258 (−43)K% 19.9% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.93% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.29% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.92% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 23.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.024 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×0.998 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.91% | ÷1.165 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .301 → .258; ISO .113 → .089; BABIP .320 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Blue Jays · 15 PAwOBA .447 → .297 (−149)K% 20.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 28.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 12.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .447 → .297; ISO .143 → .089; BABIP .545 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 182 PAwOBA .371 → .310 (−61)K% 17.6% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.58% | ÷0.955 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.038 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 5.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.92% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 14.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.064 | ×0.960 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 10.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .371 → .310; ISO .253 → .221; BABIP .304 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 163 PAwOBA .339 → .279 (−59)K% 21.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.47% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.39% | ÷1.292 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .339 → .279; ISO .181 → .129; BABIP .333 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 195 PAwOBA .261 → .218 (−43)K% 26.2% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.15% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.97% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×1.027 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.130 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .261 → .218; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .303 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 115 PAwOBA .288 → .233 (−55)K% 20.0% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.953 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.09% | ÷0.974 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.063 | ×0.960 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.989 | ×0.810 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 2.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.059 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 98, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .288 → .233; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .305 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 424 PAwOBA .299 → .237 (−62)K% 25.2% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.24% | ÷1.016 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.72% | ÷0.979 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 3.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.56% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 23.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷1.083 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷1.309 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .299 → .237; ISO .128 → .088; BABIP .330 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALansing Lugnuts · 391 PAwOBA .331 → .284 (−47)K% 14.8% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.83% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.46% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.56% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 23.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 4.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.112 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 122, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .331 → .284; ISO .125 → .104; BABIP .311 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .