Nicolas Carreno

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 21 LHP 5'10" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	11	11	32	3.66	2.94	31.2%	16.7%	—	K 21.3% · BB 20.8% · FIP 4.48
2025	19	MIX2 levels	14	4	28	5.72	2.85	23.2%	13.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 21.6% · FIP 4.53
2026	20	MIX2 levels	24	18	100	3.42	3.52	28.8%	14.4%	—	K 21.8% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.67
2027PROJ	21	MLBNYM	13	13	70	5.34	5.34	21.4%	16.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBNYM	9	9	47	5.04	4.91	22.4%	14.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBNYM	13	13	72	4.76	4.61	23.1%	12.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 79%

CompsJared Beck (age 23) · Larson Kindreich (age 23) · Adam Tulloch (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 135

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%21.4%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	1	12	68	17	21	1	8%	1.0	17.0%	38.6%	-21.6%	2.1%	10.50	7.68	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	12	1	12	68	17	21	1	8%	1.0	25.0%	30.9%	-5.9%	1.5%	10.50	6.60	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	21.3%	20.8%	0.4%	1.0%	3.66	4.48	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	21.3%	20.8%	0.4%	1.0%	3.66	4.48	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	31.2%	16.7%	14.6%	0.7%	3.66	2.94	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	15.5%	21.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	5.72	4.53	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	15.5%	21.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	5.72	4.53	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	23.2%	13.8%	9.4%	0.0%	5.72	2.85	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	100	430	124	62	8	75%	4.2	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.3%	3.42	4.67	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	100	430	124	62	8	75%	4.2	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.3%	3.42	4.67	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	100	430	124	62	8	75%	4.2	28.8%	14.4%	14.4%	1.9%	3.42	3.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	NYM	13	13	70	296	63	49	8	100%	5.4	21.4%	16.7%	4.7%	2.8%	5.34	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	94	399	89	56	11	100%	5.2	22.4%	14.1%	8.3%	2.8%	5.04	4.91	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	98	414	96	51	11	100%	5.4	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.61	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	100	424	100	48	12	100%	5.6	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.42	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	102	429	103	45	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.6%	13.4%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	102	429	104	45	12	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	100	423	102	45	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	2.8%	4.32	4.31	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	97	410	98	44	12	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	93	392	93	43	12	100%	6.2	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.53	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	87	368	86	42	12	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	81	343	79	40	12	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.5%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	47	198	44	28	6	100%	5.2	22.4%	14.1%	8.3%	2.8%	5.04	4.91	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	72	304	70	38	8	100%	5.5	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.61	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	83	350	83	40	10	100%	5.5	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.42	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	90	380	91	40	10	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.6%	13.4%	2.7%	4.40	4.30	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	93	393	95	41	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	93	393	95	42	11	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	2.8%	4.32	4.31	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	91	384	92	41	11	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.40	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	88	372	88	41	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.0%	12.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.53	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	83	350	82	40	11	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.71	+0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	77	325	75	38	11	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	140	816	3447	814	388	100	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.12	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	95	24	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.52	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		61	34	172	780	157	158	13	56%	2.8	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	1.7%	4.33	4.87	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	39	200	905	182	183	15	56%	2.8	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	1.7%	4.33	4.87	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicolas Carreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	21.4%	16.7%	2.8%	—	4.64	23.0%	10.5%	293	-0.70	—	—	—
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	84
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	83
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	82
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	80
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	80
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	80
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	80
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	78
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	78
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	77
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	77
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	453	77
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	77
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	77
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	76
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Ronan Kopp L 2023 · 4.66 FIP	21	SP-	4.66	27.6%	19.2%	2.6%	.287	4.18	25.3%	7.3%	154	-0.48	2.93	284	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	93	23.4%	11.8%	1.12	4.61
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Lou Kretlow ('46-'56, -2 WAR*)	3.9	87	23.6%*	12.1%*	1.05*	5.18*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64