Roberto Medina

P FCL Rays

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKTB	17	25	2.92	2.86	22.0%	12.8%	—	K 15.0% · BB 16.1% · FIP 3.87
2026	21	ROKTB	16	20	6.30	6.50	22.3%	16.0%	—	K 15.2% · BB 19.9% · FIP 8.43
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	12	13	5.55	5.55	20.2%	16.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTB	10	11	5.25	5.13	21.3%	14.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMatt Minnick (age 23) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 139

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%20.2%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%3.7%

Proj IP13

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	37	167	53	29	2	100%	3.3	21.6%	21.7%	-0.1%	1.5%	3.68	4.85	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	11	37	167	53	29	2	100%	3.3	31.7%	17.4%	14.4%	1.2%	3.68	3.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	18.5%	19.6%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.18	5.29	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	18.5%	19.6%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.18	5.29	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	2	28	121	33	19	2	18%	2.5	27.3%	15.7%	11.6%	1.7%	4.18	3.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	15.0%	16.1%	-1.1%	0.0%	2.92	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	15.0%	16.1%	-1.1%	0.0%	2.92	3.87	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	17	0	25	109	24	14	0	0%	1.5	22.0%	12.8%	9.2%	0.0%	2.92	2.86	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	15.2%	19.9%	-4.8%	7.4%	6.30	8.43	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	15.2%	19.9%	-4.8%	7.4%	6.30	8.43	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	16	0	20	94	21	15	5	0%	1.2	22.3%	16.0%	6.4%	5.3%	6.30	6.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	12	0	13	55	11	9	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	16.6%	3.7%	3.1%	5.55	5.55	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	22	0	23	97	21	14	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	14.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.25	5.13	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	7	1	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.25	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	10	7	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	14.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.25	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	124	18	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.25	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		55	13	109	491	89	96	12	24%	2.0	18.1%	19.6%	-1.5%	2.5%	4.12	5.43	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	24	200	898	163	176	22	24%	2.0	18.1%	19.6%	-1.5%	2.5%	4.12	5.43	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roberto Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	20.2%	16.6%	3.1%	—	5.13	21.3%	7.2%	23	-0.42	—	—	—
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	85
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	82
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	80
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	79
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	79
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	78
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	78
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	78
Jack O'Loughlin L 2022 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	17.0%	13.7%	2.6%	.269	4.76	17.5%	7.2%	239	-0.07	3.78	348	77
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	77
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	77
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	77
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	77
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	76
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	76
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	75
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	75