Mervin Fell — OGILVIE

Mervin Fell P Visalia Rawhide

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A peak 0.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%17.4%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	7	3	13	56	17	6	0	43%	1.9	20.6%	13.4%	7.3%	0.0%	3.46	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	7	3	13	56	17	6	0	43%	1.9	20.6%	13.4%	7.3%	0.0%	3.46	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	7	3	13	56	17	6	0	43%	1.9	30.4%	10.7%	19.6%	0.0%	3.46	1.87	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	20.3%	15.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.27	3.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	20.3%	15.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.27	3.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	29.9%	12.7%	17.2%	0.0%	3.27	2.22	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	17.8%	16.7%	1.2%	1.2%	4.65	4.36	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	17.8%	16.7%	1.2%	1.2%	4.65	4.36	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	24.1%	14.1%	10.0%	1.2%	4.65	3.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	19.1%	15.3%	3.9%	1.4%	6.56	4.17	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	19.1%	15.3%	3.9%	1.4%	6.56	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	ARI	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	25.9%	12.9%	12.9%	1.1%	6.56	3.13	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	5	22	4	4	1	100%	5.2	17.4%	18.4%	-0.9%	2.7%	5.79	5.79	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	89	401	102	53	5	—	—	25.4%	13.2%	12.2%	1.1%	6.52	4.26	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	84	354	65	56	9	100%	5.6	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	2.7%	5.49	5.40	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	85	358	69	51	10	100%	5.7	19.1%	14.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.25	5.15	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	358	70	50	10	100%	6.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.5%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	84	353	69	49	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	81	342	66	48	10	100%	5.8	19.4%	14.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.15	5.18	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	78	327	69	44	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	13.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.04	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	73	307	64	42	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.22	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	36	152	28	24	4	100%	6.0	18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	2.7%	5.49	5.40	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	56	236	45	34	6	100%	5.6	19.1%	14.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.25	5.15	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	55	40	8	100%	6.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.5%	2.7%	5.13	5.08	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	71	300	58	42	8	100%	5.9	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	59	43	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	14.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.15	5.18	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	70	296	62	40	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	13.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.04	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	59	39	9	100%	6.1	20.8%	13.8%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	440	1859	368	261	53	100%	6.0	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.8%	5.17	4.77	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	119	24	100%	5.9	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.8%	5.17	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		62	43	209	909	172	143	9	69%	3.4	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	1.0%	5.12	4.06	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	870	165	137	9	69%	3.4	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	1.0%	5.12	4.06	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mervin Fell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	17.4%	18.4%	2.7%	—	5.21	19.0%	4.3%	254	-0.58	—	—	—
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	86
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	81
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	80
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	80
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79
Connor Sadzeck R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	17.8%	16.5%	2.2%	.288	4.40	20.1%	10.1%	272	-0.50	3.20	549	79
Holt Jones R 2022 · 6.63 FIP	23	SP	6.63	17.9%	19.5%	4.7%	.296	4.64	18.4%	0.8%	147	-1.99	3.37	241	78
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	78
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	78
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	79	19.4%	14.6%	1.09	5.26
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04