Mervin Fell
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146136vR 127
ERA5.64
FIP5.64
K%17.4%
BB%17.3%
K-BB%0.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 7 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 43% | 1.9 | 20.6% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 3.46 | 3.05 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 7 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 43% | 1.9 | 30.4% | 10.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 3.46 | 1.87 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 5 | 33 | 134 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 42% | 2.8 | 20.3% | 15.9% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 3.39 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 5 | 33 | 134 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 42% | 2.8 | 29.9% | 12.7% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 3.27 | 2.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 20 | 17 | 79 | 340 | 82 | 48 | 4 | 85% | 4.0 | 17.8% | 16.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4.65 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 20 | 17 | 79 | 340 | 82 | 48 | 4 | 85% | 4.0 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 1.2% | 4.65 | 3.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 16 | 12 | 52 | 245 | 61 | 32 | 3 | 75% | 3.3 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 8.25 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 45 | 45 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.64 | 5.64 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 5.64 | 5.64 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 114 | 505 | 106 | 77 | 10 | — | — | 21.1% | 15.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 6.84 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 50 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.6% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 52 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 51 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.6% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 5.16 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 43 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.7% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 228 | 962 | 188 | 134 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 4.70 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 118 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 37 | 178 | 775 | 145 | 123 | 7 | 67% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 5.37 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 42 | 200 | 872 | 163 | 139 | 8 | 67% | 3.2 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 5.37 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mervin Fell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.64 | 17.4% | 17.3% | 2.6% | — | 5.12 | 19.2% | 5.0% | 191 | -0.52 | — | — | — |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 87 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 87 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 86 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 85 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 85 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 83 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 82 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 81 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 81 |
| Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 2.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 152 | 80 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 80 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 6.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.58 | 18.6% | 18.8% | 4.9% | .322 | 4.51 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 94 | -2.07 | 3.43 | 129 | 80 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.8% | 16.5% | 2.2% | .288 | 4.30 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 272 | -0.60 | 3.22 | 549 | 79 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 79 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 79 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 79 |
| Roki Sasaki R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .253 | 5.33 | 22.7% | 13.3% | 81 | +0.06 | 5.27 | 138 | 78 |
| Aidan Foeller R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.74 | 22.7% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.45 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 50 | -0.29 | 4.45 | 149 | 78 |
| Yorman Galindez R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.60 | 15.9% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 176 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 19.1% | 14.6% | 1.04 | 5.22 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |