Connor Sadzeck
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 34
RHP
6'7" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 160 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.04
FIP5.06
K%21.8%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP161
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p5125.4%
K%
p6625.2%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
FB-2.1
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 60 | 280 | 64 | 41 | 5 | 78% | 3.4 | 17.8% | 16.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 5.82 | 4.90 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 60 | 280 | 64 | 41 | 5 | 78% | 3.4 | 22.9% | 14.6% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 5.82 | 4.09 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 25 | 23 | 141 | 589 | 133 | 52 | 18 | 92% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.57 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 25 | 23 | 141 | 589 | 133 | 52 | 18 | 92% | 5.6 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 3.98 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 38 | 13 | 94 | 418 | 111 | 39 | 13 | 34% | 2.5 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 6.25 | 4.32 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 38 | 13 | 94 | 418 | 111 | 39 | 13 | 34% | 2.5 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 6.25 | 3.78 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 4 | 52 | 226 | 60 | 27 | 2 | 8% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 3.14 | 3.22 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 4 | 52 | 226 | 60 | 27 | 2 | 8% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 0.9% | 3.14 | 2.85 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 20 | 0 | 24 | 107 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 2.66 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 20 | 0 | 24 | 107 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 2.66 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 40 | 0 | 45 | 207 | 49 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.90 | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 40 | 0 | 45 | 207 | 49 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 13.5% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 58 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 3.7% | 2.60 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 58 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.1% | 9.3% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 2.60 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 25 | 2 | 35 | 171 | 42 | 26 | 6 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 16.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.38 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 25 | 2 | 35 | 171 | 42 | 26 | 6 | 8% | 1.4 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 5.16 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 49 | 0 | 64 | 309 | 67 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.1% | 13.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 4.66 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 49 | 0 | 64 | 309 | 67 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 1.0% | 4.66 | 3.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 153 | 0 | 161 | 679 | 148 | 100 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 5.06 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 137 | 0 | 144 | 609 | 127 | 88 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 122 | 0 | 128 | 539 | 107 | 79 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 14.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.40 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 14.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.40 | 5.60 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 2 | 44 | 198 | 43 | 30 | 6 | 5% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.19 | 4.86 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 9 | 200 | 904 | 196 | 137 | 27 | 5% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.19 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 306 | 56 | 565 | 2521 | 519 | 304 | 70 | 18% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.41 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 20 | 200 | 892 | 183 | 107 | 25 | 18% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Sadzeck (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 21.8% | 14.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.45 | 20.4% | 5.9% | 272 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Scott McGough R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.51 | 18.8% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .289 | 3.82 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 57 | -0.69 | 3.65 | 429 | 56 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 56 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.29 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .212 | 4.15 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 89 | -0.14 | 3.02 | 646 | 55 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 54 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 54 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.05 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .224 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 22 | -0.66 | 3.02 | 358 | 53 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 52 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 52 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 51 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 51 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 49 |
| Austin Adams R 2024 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 49 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 48 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 47 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 47 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 47 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 46 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 45 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 44 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.74 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | .258 | 4.22 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 87 | -0.52 | 2.61 | 339 | 44 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 144 | 20.9% | 14.6% | 1.23 | 5.19 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |