Connor Sadzeck — OGILVIE

Connor Sadzeck P Indianapolis Indians

Age 34 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.91

K%20.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

FB-2.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	60	280	64	41	5	78%	3.4	17.8%	16.5%	1.3%	2.2%	5.82	4.90	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	60	280	64	41	5	78%	3.4	22.9%	14.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.82	4.09	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	25	23	141	589	133	52	18	92%	5.6	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.4%	4.16	4.68	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	25	23	141	589	133	52	18	92%	5.6	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.1%	4.16	3.98	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	38	13	94	418	111	39	13	34%	2.5	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.4%	6.25	4.46	—
2017	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	38	13	94	418	111	39	13	34%	2.5	26.6%	9.3%	17.2%	3.1%	6.25	3.78	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	4	52	226	60	27	2	8%	1.1	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	1.4%	3.14	3.20	+0.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	4	52	226	60	27	2	8%	1.1	26.5%	11.9%	14.6%	0.9%	3.14	2.85	+1.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	20	0	24	107	27	14	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	2.66	4.20	+0.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	20	0	24	107	27	14	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.8%	2.66	4.24	+0.1
2021	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	40	0	45	207	49	28	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.9%	4.84	4.73	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	40	0	45	207	49	28	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	13.5%	10.1%	2.4%	4.84	4.24	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	214	58	20	10	0%	1.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	4.0%	2.60	4.50	+0.0
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	214	58	20	10	0%	1.2	27.1%	9.3%	17.8%	4.7%	2.60	4.52	+0.0
2023	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	25	2	35	171	42	26	6	8%	1.4	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	3.8%	5.40	5.21	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	25	2	35	171	42	26	6	8%	1.4	20.4%	13.7%	6.7%	3.8%	5.40	5.21	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	25	2	35	171	42	26	6	8%	1.4	24.6%	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	5.40	5.16	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	1.2%	4.66	3.70	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	18.0%	11.7%	6.3%	1.2%	4.66	3.70	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	1.0%	4.66	3.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	2	36	165	36	25	5	6%	1.0	21.8%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	2.75	4.99	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	PIT	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.0%	7.9%	2.8%	4.90	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	PIT	137	0	144	609	122	80	19	0%	1.1	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	3.2%	5.04	5.18	-1.0
2028	36	MLB MLE	PIT	122	0	128	539	103	71	19	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.3%	5.9%	3.5%	5.28	5.48	-1.3
2027	35	MLB CTX	PIT	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	13.1%	7.0%	3.2%	5.04	5.18	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	13.3%	5.9%	3.5%	5.28	5.48	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	2	44	198	43	29	6	5%	1.0	21.5%	14.8%	6.7%	3.1%	3.16	4.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	9	200	904	196	132	27	5%	1.0	21.5%	14.8%	6.7%	3.1%	3.16	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		306	56	565	2521	513	294	72	18%	1.8	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.42	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	20	200	892	182	104	25	18%	1.8	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	2.8%	4.57	4.42	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Sadzeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	20.9%	13.0%	2.8%	—	5.32	19.7%	6.5%	272	+0.41	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	58
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	55
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	55
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	54
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	54
Carlos Torres R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	34	SU	4.51	17.4%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	3.66	19.8%	11.6%	113	-0.85	2.89	326	54
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	53
Oscar Villarreal R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	34	SW	3.90	14.4%	7.8%	1.9%	.325	5.36	8.7%	0.1%	13	+1.46	2.53	135	53
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	53
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	212	53
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	52
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	52
Jared Hughes R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	34	SU	4.96	18.7%	9.0%	4.2%	.224	4.38	19.3%	8.3%	22	-0.58	3.00	358	51
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	50
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	50
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	49
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	48
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	48
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	47
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	144	20.1%	13.1%	1.22	5.06
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19