Connor Sadzeck

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 35 RHP 6'7" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	30	MIX2 levels	43	0	52	2.60	4.52	27.1%	9.3%	0.0	K 24.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.50
2023	31	AAAMIN	25	2	35	5.40	5.16	24.6%	15.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 13.7% · FIP 5.15
2024	32	AAAPIT	49	0	64	4.66	3.49	21.7%	12.9%	—	K 18.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.65
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBPIT	15	0	16	4.73	4.74	22.4%	12.0%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBPIT	1	0	1	4.91	5.06	21.4%	12.1%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBPIT	—	—	0	5.18	5.40	20.3%	12.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

FB Velo77

K%66

xwOBA vs46

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 34) · Jean Machi (age 35) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.74

K%22.4%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP161

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	60	280	64	41	5	78%	3.4	17.8%	16.5%	1.3%	2.2%	5.82	4.90	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	60	280	64	41	5	78%	3.4	22.9%	14.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.82	4.09	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	25	23	141	589	133	52	18	92%	5.6	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.4%	4.16	4.68	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	25	23	141	589	133	52	18	92%	5.6	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.1%	4.16	3.98	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	38	13	94	418	111	39	13	34%	2.5	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.4%	6.25	4.46	—
2017	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	38	13	94	418	111	39	13	34%	2.5	26.6%	9.3%	17.2%	3.1%	6.25	3.78	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	4	52	226	60	27	2	8%	1.1	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	1.4%	3.14	3.20	+0.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	4	52	226	60	27	2	8%	1.1	26.5%	11.9%	14.6%	0.9%	3.14	2.85	+1.1
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	20	0	24	107	27	14	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	2.66	4.20	+0.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	20	0	24	107	27	14	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	13.1%	12.1%	2.8%	2.66	4.24	+0.1
2021	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	40	0	45	207	49	28	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.9%	4.84	4.73	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	40	0	45	207	49	28	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	13.5%	10.1%	2.4%	4.84	4.24	—
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	214	58	20	10	0%	1.2	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	4.0%	2.60	4.50	+0.0
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	214	58	20	10	0%	1.2	27.1%	9.3%	17.8%	4.7%	2.60	4.52	+0.0
2023	31	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	25	2	35	171	42	26	6	8%	1.4	21.1%	13.7%	7.4%	3.8%	5.40	5.15	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	25	2	35	171	42	26	6	8%	1.4	24.6%	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	5.40	5.16	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	1.2%	4.66	3.65	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	18.6%	11.7%	7.0%	1.2%	4.66	3.65	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	49	0	64	309	67	40	3	0%	1.3	21.7%	12.9%	8.7%	1.0%	4.66	3.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	2	36	165	36	25	5	6%	1.0	21.8%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	2.75	4.99	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	PIT	15	0	16	68	15	8	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.0%	10.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	PIT	103	0	108	458	98	56	15	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.1%	9.2%	3.4%	4.91	5.06	-0.6
2029	37	MLB MLE	PIT	76	0	79	335	68	42	13	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	3.8%	5.18	5.40	-0.7
2028	36	MLB CTX	PIT	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	12.1%	9.2%	3.4%	4.91	5.06	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	12.4%	7.9%	3.8%	5.18	5.40	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	2	37	170	37	26	5	6%	1.0	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	3.0%	2.81	4.84	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	11	200	915	200	140	27	6%	1.0	21.8%	15.1%	6.7%	3.0%	2.81	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		306	56	565	2521	516	294	72	18%	1.8	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.41	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	20	200	892	183	104	25	18%	1.8	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.41	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 64 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.65 (+0.20)K% 21.7% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.68%	—	×0.860	18.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.94%	—	×0.900	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷0.909	×1.100	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 35 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.15 (+0.27)K% 24.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.860	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.20%	—	×0.900	13.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.009	×1.100	3.83%

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 49 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.50 (+0.37)K% 27.9% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.86%	—	×0.880	24.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.45%	—	×1.050	9.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.084	×1.100	4.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 45 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.73 (+0.59)K% 23.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.67%	—	×0.880	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.53%	—	×1.050	14.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷0.915	×1.100	2.90%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 38 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.20 (+0.41)K% 26.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.38%	—	×0.880	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.050	10.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.978	×1.100	1.38%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 94 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.46 (+0.72)K% 26.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.810	21.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.100	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.089	×1.200	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 141 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.68 (+0.69)K% 22.6% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.810	18.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.83%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷1.065	×1.200	3.44%

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+High Desert Mavericks · 41 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.80 (+1.05)K% 26.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.52%	—	×0.770	20.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.26%	—	×1.150	15.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.015	×1.250	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Sadzeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	22.4%	12.0%	3.0%	—	5.20	20.9%	8.7%	188	+0.46	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	54
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	53
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	53
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	53
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	52
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	51
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	50
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	48
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	47
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	46
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	46
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	45
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	44
Jesse Hahn R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	35	SU	3.68	21.6%	15.1%	0.9%	.260	4.36	19.0%	8.3%	54	+0.68	2.19	499	43
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	43
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	42
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	41
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	38
Pete Walker R 2003 · 5.73 FIP	34	SW	5.73	12.0%	9.1%	4.5%	.267	4.70	14.0%	5.1%	114	-1.03	4.45	327	37
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	37

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	96	21.6%	12.5%	1.26	4.69
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87