Josue Juarez — OGILVIE

Josue Juarez P DSL Tampa Bay

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%23.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.0%

IP35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	12	10	41	170	30	14	4	12.0%	10.3%	2.6%	3.76	4.83	+0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	—	35	—	35	146	34	13	4	23.2%	9.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	—	36	—	36	150	36	13	4	23.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.27	4.23	+0.3
2028	25	MLB	—	36	—	36	152	37	13	4	24.1%	8.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.17	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	—	36	—	36	152	37	13	4	24.3%	8.7%	3.0%	4.18	4.15	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	—	36	—	36	150	36	13	4	24.3%	8.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.17	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	—	35	—	35	148	36	13	4	24.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.18	4.19	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	—	34	—	34	145	35	13	4	24.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.21	4.24	+0.3
2033	30	MLB	—	33	—	33	141	34	13	4	23.9%	8.9%	3.1%	4.27	4.30	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	—	32	—	32	136	32	12	4	23.6%	9.1%	3.2%	4.33	4.38	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	—	31	—	31	130	30	12	4	23.4%	9.2%	3.3%	4.41	4.46	+0.2
2036	33	MLB	—	29	—	29	124	29	12	4	23.1%	9.4%	3.3%	4.50	4.56	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			12	10	41	170	20	18	4	12.0%	10.3%	2.6%	3.76	4.83	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—			59	49	200	836	98	89	20	12.0%	10.3%	2.6%	3.76	4.83	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josue Juarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.18	24.0%	15.3%	107	-0.15	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	93
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	92
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	92
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	91
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	90
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	89
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	21.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.241	5.00	18.8%	8.2%	108	+1.17	3.83	144	89
Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	23	SU	4.33	21.1%	7.7%	3.7%	.250	4.37	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.04	4.33	130	89
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	89
Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	89
Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	88
Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.34	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.30	4.04	287	88
Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	88
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	88
Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.5%	7.6%	188	+0.65	3.81	220	87
Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	87
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	87
Alex Hoppe R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	4.34	19.8%	6.9%	128	+0.14	3.89	176	87
Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	23.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.98	3.54	156	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M