Alex Hoppe

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AABOS	36	66	5.43	4.16	21.0%	11.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 4.75
2025	26	MIX2 levels	44	61	4.55	3.39	26.4%	12.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.76
2026	27	MIX2 levels	57	60	3.92	3.02	25.3%	11.3%	1.1	K 24.2% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.03
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	33	35	4.00	3.89	26.3%	11.1%	0.3
2028PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBBAL	33	35	4.07	4.09	25.4%	11.1%	0.2
2029PROJ86% MLB	30	MLBBAL	29	30	4.22	4.31	24.6%	11.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%62

xwOBA vs53

Form2.16 ERA (proj 4.00) · K 21.1% (proj 26.3%) · BB 11.8% (proj 11.1%) ▼ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsRobert Stock (age 28) · Marcos Mateo (age 27) · Jumbo Diaz (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.00

FIP3.89

K%26.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.5%	4.10	4.21	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.3%	2.8%	4.10	3.12	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	2.2%	5.43	4.16	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.0%	4.55	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	22.4%	11.5%	11.0%	2.0%	4.55	3.76	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	26.4%	12.0%	14.5%	1.8%	4.55	3.39	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.4%	1.1%	3.92	3.03	+1.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.4%	1.1%	3.92	3.03	+1.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	60	265	67	30	3	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.3%	14.0%	1.1%	3.92	3.02	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	43	192	47	18	3	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	1.6%	4.43	3.08	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	33	0	35	148	39	16	3	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.1%	15.2%	2.2%	4.00	3.89	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	40	0	42	179	45	20	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.4%	4.07	4.09	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	33	0	35	147	36	17	4	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.31	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	33	0	35	148	38	16	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.1%	14.3%	2.4%	4.07	4.09	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	29	0	30	127	31	14	3	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	0	107	464	115	49	10	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.25	3.51	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	867	215	91	19	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.25	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		180	0	236	1066	230	121	24	0%	1.3	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.96	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	905	195	102	20	0%	1.3	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	2.3%	4.54	3.96	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 17 IPFIP 2.87 → 2.98 (+0.12)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.40%	—	×0.860	23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.44%	—	×0.900	14.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 45 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.60 (+0.31)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.860	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.33%	—	×0.900	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.20%

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 16 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.22 (+0.60)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.29%	—	×0.810	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×1.100	15.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.119	×1.200	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 66 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.75 (+0.71)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.02%	—	×0.810	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.78%	—	×1.100	12.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.018	×1.200	2.63%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 34 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.83 (+1.15)K% 31.2% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.17%	—	×0.770	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷0.931	×1.250	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 14 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.22 (+0.94)K% 28.1% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.07%	—	×0.810	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.100	5.79%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.048	×1.200	6.03%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Hoppe (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	26.3%	11.1%	2.2%	—	4.19	25.0%	13.8%	77	+0.30	—	—	—
Robert Stock R 2018 · 2.91 FIP	28	SU	2.91	22.2%	8.5%	1.1%	.262	4.51	24.1%	11.9%	88	+1.60	2.74	378	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	78
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	78
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	77
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	601	77
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	76
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.50 FIP	28	SU	3.50	25.7%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.25	21.4%	13.5%	171	-0.25	2.10	351	76
Blake Wood R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.60	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.68	2.92	329	76
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	76
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	76
Jason Motte R 2010 · 3.24 FIP	28	SU	3.24	26.0%	7.2%	2.6%	.269	2.69	27.3%	21.8%	140	-0.55	2.22	387	76
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	75
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	75
Pedro Strop R 2013 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	26.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.252	2.51	30.3%	21.8%	176	-0.72	2.25	494	75
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 2.99 FIP	25	SU	2.99	26.1%	11.5%	1.2%	.280	4.13	22.6%	8.4%	77	+1.14	2.99	134	75
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	75
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	42	25.2%	11.0%	0.85	4.17
Chaz Roe ('21)	1.1	43	26.4%	11.1%	0.79	3.89
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*