Alex Hoppe — OGILVIE

Alex Hoppe P Baltimore Orioles

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 90

ERA4.04

FIP4.04

K%23.0%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.5%	4.10	4.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.5%	4.10	4.21	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	211	64	17	6	0%	1.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.3%	2.8%	4.10	3.12	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	17.0%	13.0%	4.1%	2.6%	5.43	4.75	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	36	0	66	314	66	37	7	0%	1.8	21.0%	11.8%	9.2%	2.2%	5.43	4.16	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	2.0%	4.55	3.81	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	2.0%	4.55	3.81	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	61	276	73	33	5	0%	1.4	26.4%	12.0%	14.5%	1.8%	4.55	3.39	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	0	40	178	43	17	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	1.7%	4.54	3.20	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	54	0	57	251	63	29	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.1%	12.7%	1.1%	3.97	3.13	+1.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	54	0	57	251	63	29	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.1%	12.7%	1.1%	3.97	3.13	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	BAL	15	0	17	73	20	12	0	0%	1.1	27.4%	16.4%	11.0%	0.0%	2.65	2.87	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	BAL	39	0	40	178	43	17	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	1.7%	4.54	3.19	+0.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BAL	39	0	40	178	43	17	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	1.7%	4.54	3.19	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.6%	4.04	4.04	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.6%	11.4%	2.6%	4.04	4.04	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	63	276	69	32	4	—	—	24.9%	11.6%	13.4%	1.3%	3.98	3.21	+1.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	46	192	69	32	4	—	—	35.7%	16.6%	19.2%	1.9%	5.46	3.22	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	65	0	68	287	66	32	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	62	0	65	274	62	30	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	62	0	65	274	63	30	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	59	0	62	262	60	29	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	0	172	735	170	79	18	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.4%	4.40	3.84	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	857	198	92	21	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.4%	4.40	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		177	0	233	1052	223	120	24	0%	1.3	21.2%	11.4%	9.9%	2.3%	4.56	4.01	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	904	192	103	21	0%	1.3	21.2%	11.4%	9.9%	2.3%	4.56	4.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Hoppe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.4%	11.8%	2.7%	—	4.42	22.9%	11.8%	133	-0.15	—	—	—
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	87
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	81
Pierce Johnson R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	22.4%	11.3%	2.3%	.269	3.00	32.2%	22.0%	79	-0.92	2.75	593	80
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	80
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	79
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	79
José Ramírez R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SU	4.56	21.7%	10.9%	3.5%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	206	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	78
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	77
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	77
Grant Hartwig R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	25	SU	3.79	20.6%	9.9%	2.1%	.330	3.92	18.9%	9.9%	101	+0.13	2.52	219	77
Jimmy Cordero R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SU	3.60	20.8%	7.8%	2.3%	.256	2.84	23.8%	16.4%	65	-0.76	2.59	365	76
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	76
Austin Maddox R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	26	SU	3.42	20.1%	11.0%	1.1%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	156	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	22.7%	11.3%	1.04	4.44
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82