Alex Hoppe
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 23 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 91
ERA3.97
FIP3.97
K%23.4%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 64 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.10 | 4.25 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 48 | 211 | 64 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 8.1% | 22.3% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 3.12 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 36 | 0 | 66 | 314 | 66 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.0% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.43 | 4.72 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 36 | 0 | 66 | 314 | 66 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 5.43 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 276 | 73 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 4.55 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 61 | 276 | 73 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 4.55 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 0 | 38 | 166 | 42 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 0.6% | 5.02 | 2.96 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 61 | 263 | 65 | 32 | 3 | — | — | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 47 | 198 | 65 | 32 | 3 | — | — | 32.6% | 16.1% | 16.5% | 1.7% | 5.97 | 3.29 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 67 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 0 | 173 | 737 | 172 | 84 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 3.86 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 199 | 97 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 156 | 0 | 214 | 967 | 207 | 116 | 22 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.80 | 4.08 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 0 | 200 | 905 | 193 | 108 | 21 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.80 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Hoppe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.44 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 133 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 83 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.39 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.08 | 3.39 | 162 | 82 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 81 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .269 | 3.14 | 32.2% | 22.0% | 79 | -0.79 | 2.83 | 577 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 80 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .218 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 206 | 79 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 79 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 79 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 79 |
| Ty Adcock R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .405 | 4.57 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 37 | +0.73 | 3.84 | 102 | 79 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 79 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 78 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 78 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 78 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 77 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 1.03 | 4.44 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |