Kannon Kemp
P
ACL Padres
Age 21
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135125vR 116
ERA5.13
FIP5.13
K%15.5%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 78 | 350 | 64 | 32 | 4 | 56% | 4.3 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 5.56 | 4.28 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 78 | 350 | 64 | 32 | 4 | 56% | 4.3 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 5.56 | 3.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 5 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 80% | 1.9 | — | — | — | — | 7.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 36 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 64 | 275 | 42 | 31 | 7 | — | — | 15.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.48 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 50 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 49 | 288 | 1217 | 256 | 115 | 32 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 3.97 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 178 | 80 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 23 | 14 | 87 | 395 | 52 | 43 | 7 | 61% | 3.8 | 13.3% | 11.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 5.77 | 4.32 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 32 | 200 | 905 | 120 | 99 | 16 | 61% | 3.8 | 13.3% | 11.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 5.77 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kannon Kemp (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 177 | -0.57 | — | — | — |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 90 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 90 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.00 | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 199 | -0.76 | 3.84 | 355 | 89 |
| Henry Valencio R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 88 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 88 |
| Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .274 | 4.88 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 265 | +0.57 | 4.27 | 384 | 88 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 87 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 86 |
| Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .295 | 3.59 | 27.4% | 17.5% | 264 | -0.74 | 3.28 | 535 | 86 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.13 | 15.5% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.62 | 179 | 86 |
| David Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .316 | 3.77 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 102 | -0.64 | 3.66 | 161 | 86 |
| Abel Duarte R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 86 |
| Shane Davis R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.14 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .313 | 4.08 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.06 | 4.08 | 129 | 86 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .370 | 4.86 | 15.8% | 4.8% | 63 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 114 | 86 |
| Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 1.8% | 172 | +0.44 | 4.32 | 308 | 85 |
| Ryan Long R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.20 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .263 | 4.46 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 292 | +0.26 | 4.13 | 405 | 85 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 85 |
| Dillon Tate R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 4.09 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 261 | -0.63 | 3.02 | 599 | 84 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 84 |
| Will Childers R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 59 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 1.06 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |