Kannon Kemp — OGILVIE

Kannon Kemp P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%15.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD2045

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	13.3%	10.9%	2.3%	1.6%	5.56	4.24	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	13.3%	10.9%	2.3%	1.6%	5.56	4.24	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	18.3%	9.1%	9.1%	1.1%	5.56	3.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	12	8	39	178	33	15	6	67%	3.2	14.9%	9.2%	5.7%	4.2%	6.28	5.30	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	12	8	39	178	33	15	6	67%	3.2	14.9%	9.2%	5.7%	4.2%	6.28	5.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SD	3	3	6	28	4	3	1	100%	1.9	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	3.6%	9.53	5.21	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	9	5	33	150	29	12	5	56%	3.7	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.3%	5.73	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	73	310	56	32	9	100%	6.1	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.8%	4.89	4.77	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	76	322	64	31	9	100%	6.4	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.66	4.53	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	78	330	69	31	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.7%	4.50	4.39	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	79	334	72	31	9	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.39	4.32	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	79	334	73	31	9	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.29	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	78	329	72	31	9	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.33	4.33	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	76	319	69	30	9	100%	6.3	21.7%	9.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	72	305	65	30	9	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	68	287	61	29	9	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	+0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	63	267	55	28	9	100%	6.3	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	36	152	28	16	4	100%	6.0	18.2%	10.4%	7.8%	2.8%	4.93	4.81	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	47	23	7	100%	6.2	20.0%	9.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.57	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	65	274	58	26	8	100%	6.5	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.8%	4.54	4.43	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	70	296	64	27	8	100%	6.4	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.36	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	72	304	66	28	8	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.6%	2.8%	4.37	4.33	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	72	304	66	28	9	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.37	4.37	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	71	300	65	28	9	100%	6.5	21.7%	9.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.42	4.45	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	69	291	63	28	9	100%	6.3	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	65	274	58	27	9	100%	6.5	21.1%	10.0%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	60	253	53	26	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.5%	4.85	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	635	2681	567	258	79	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.16	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	179	81	25	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		30	18	116	528	73	55	13	60%	3.9	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.5%	5.80	4.59	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	908	125	94	22	60%	3.9	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.5%	5.80	4.59	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kannon Kemp (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	15.5%	11.3%	2.8%	—	4.56	19.8%	9.9%	228	-0.58	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	92
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	90
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	89
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	88
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	88
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	87
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	86
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	86
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	86
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	85
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	85
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	85
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	84
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	84
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	627	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	72	20.6%	9.8%	1.11	4.57
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99