Kannon Kemp — OGILVIE

Kannon Kemp P Lake Elsinore Storm

+0.5 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.1 · 2031

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.8%

IP78

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2031

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	13.3%	10.9%	1.6%	5.56	4.23	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SD	14	14	78	328	68	32	9	20.6%	9.8%	2.8%	4.51	4.51	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	SD	15	15	82	345	75	31	9	21.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.38	4.30	+0.8
2028	23	MLB	SD	19	19	105	442	100	38	12	22.6%	8.6%	2.7%	4.25	4.16	+1.4
2029	24	MLB	SD	22	22	123	521	120	43	14	23.1%	8.3%	2.7%	4.15	4.07	+1.7
2030	25	MLB	SD	25	25	137	578	135	47	16	23.4%	8.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.02	+2.0
2031	26	MLB	SD	26	26	144	607	143	49	16	23.6%	8.1%	2.7%	4.03	4.00	+2.1
2032	27	MLB	SD	27	27	147	619	147	51	17	23.7%	8.2%	2.7%	4.02	4.01	+2.1
2033	28	MLB	SD	27	27	146	619	146	51	17	23.6%	8.2%	2.8%	4.03	4.04	+2.1
2034	29	MLB	SD	26	26	143	605	142	50	17	23.5%	8.3%	2.8%	4.06	4.08	+2.0
2035	30	MLB	SD	25	25	139	586	137	49	17	23.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.11	4.14	+1.8
2036	31	MLB	SD	24	24	134	566	130	48	17	23.1%	8.5%	2.9%	4.17	4.22	+1.6
2037	32	MLB	SD	23	23	129	543	124	47	16	22.8%	8.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.30	+1.5
2038	33	MLB	SD	22	22	123	518	117	46	16	22.5%	8.8%	3.1%	4.34	4.40	+1.3
2039	34	MLB	SD	21	21	117	493	109	45	16	22.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+1.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			18	10	78	350	46	38	5	13.3%	10.9%	1.6%	5.56	4.23	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			46	26	200	901	118	98	13	13.3%	10.9%	1.6%	5.56	4.23	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kannon Kemp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.6%	9.8%	2.8%	—	4.16	22.6%	13.9%	310	-0.35	—	—	—
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	94
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	93
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	92
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	92
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	90
Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SW	3.86	19.3%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	5.05	14.0%	3.4%	143	+1.19	3.86	280	90
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	90
Billy Corcoran R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	90
Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	89
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	89
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SW	4.78	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.27	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	89
Adam Leverett R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	22	SW	3.43	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.47	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.04	3.43	305	89
Johnny Barbato R 2028 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	88
Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	88
Tyler Joyner R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	20.7%	9.9%	2.0%	.250	6.54	16.1%	5.2%	37	+2.83	3.71	114	88
Joan Gregorio R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.21	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.71	301	88
Drew Anderson R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	22	SW	3.39	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.66	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.27	3.11	450	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.1	$20M	+$19M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.1	$21M	+$20M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$20M	+$16M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.8	$19M	+$13M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$13M		$99M	+$87M