Kannon Kemp

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#718ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	MIX2 levels	18	10	78	5.56	3.36	18.3%	9.1%	—	K 13.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.24
2026	21	MIX2 levels	12	8	39	6.28	4.57	18.5%	8.4%	—	K 14.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.15	5.15	15.8%	10.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	5	5	29	4.96	4.87	18.3%	9.9%	0.2
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	7	7	41	4.77	4.67	19.8%	9.5%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNoah Skirrow (age 23) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Tyler McKay (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%15.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	13.3%	10.9%	2.3%	1.6%	5.56	4.24	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	13.3%	10.9%	2.3%	1.6%	5.56	4.24	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	78	350	64	32	4	56%	4.3	18.3%	9.1%	9.1%	1.1%	5.56	3.36	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	39	178	33	15	6	67%	3.2	14.9%	9.2%	5.7%	4.2%	6.28	5.30	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	39	178	33	15	6	67%	3.2	14.9%	9.2%	5.7%	4.2%	6.28	5.30	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	39	178	33	15	6	67%	3.2	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.4%	6.28	4.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.8%	10.6%	5.2%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	246	45	24	7	100%	5.8	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	3.0%	4.92	4.83	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	246	49	23	7	100%	5.8	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.63	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	54	226	47	21	7	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	2.9%	4.60	4.52	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	54	227	48	21	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.53	4.48	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	52	221	47	21	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	50	210	44	20	6	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.5%	11.5%	3.1%	4.57	4.60	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	46	194	40	19	6	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.67	4.73	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	42	176	36	18	6	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	3.4%	4.82	4.91	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	29	122	22	12	4	100%	5.8	18.3%	9.9%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	4.87	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	41	173	34	17	5	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.5%	10.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.67	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	43	182	38	17	5	100%	6.1	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.64	4.56	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	42	18	6	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.3%	11.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.52	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	42	19	6	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.56	4.56	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	46	194	41	19	6	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.5%	11.5%	3.2%	4.61	4.64	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	43	182	38	18	6	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	39	165	34	17	6	100%	6.5	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.87	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	335	1413	291	135	44	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.30	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	81	26	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		30	18	116	528	73	55	13	60%	3.9	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.5%	5.80	4.59	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	908	125	94	22	60%	3.9	13.8%	10.4%	3.4%	2.5%	5.80	4.59	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 33 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.30 (+0.98)K% 19.3% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.33%	—	×0.770	14.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 6 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.72 (+1.51)K% 14.3% → 9.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.680	9.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.250	13.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 54 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.25 (+0.90)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.28%	—	×0.740	14.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.64%	—	×1.180	11.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.936	×1.300	1.67%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 24 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.19 (+0.88)K% 15.8% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.84%	—	×0.680	10.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.250	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.018	×1.400	1.36%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kannon Kemp (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.66	19.6%	10.0%	170	-0.49	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	89
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	88
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	87
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	87
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	87
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	85
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	85
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	84
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	83
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	82
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	82
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	82
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	630	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	51	20.0%	9.7%	1.18	4.72
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*