Naibel Mariano — OGILVIE

Naibel MarianoSS ACL Reds

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION225 act + 150 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .248 / .288

PA150

HR2

K%29

BB%5

BABIP266

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT28

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	201	176	21	2	1	1	16	82	8	3	5	119	225	159	384	40	213	41	8	178	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	143	138	29	4	2	3	3	44	2	9	3	210	238	333	571	123	286	31	2	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	CIN	—	225	209	37	7	1	2	11	78	3	7	1	177	229	249	478	72	269	35	5	214	22	-20	+1	+0	+2	+6	-1.0
YTD	19	ROK	CIN	—	225	201	51	10	2	3	19	54	3	7	1	254	327	368	696	114	331	24	8	313	97	-1	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.9
ROS	19	ROK	CIN	0%	150	139	27	5	1	2	8	44	2	3	1	194	248	288	536	94	266	29	5	240	42	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	CIN	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		268	—	—	233	36	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	CIN	—	225	210	37	7	1	2	11	78	3	7	1	176	229	248	476	71	267	35	5	214	22	-20	+1	+0	+2	+6	-1.0
TOT	19	ROK	CIN	—	375	348	64	12	2	4	19	122	5	10	2	184	237	264	501	80	268	33	5	224	30	-30	+1	+0	+4	+11	-1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	CIN	34%	342	315	65	12	2	6	20	96	4	6	2	206	263	314	577	108	271	28	6	256	54	-18	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.4
2028	21	MLB	CIN	48%	440	404	84	15	3	8	27	121	6	8	2	208	268	319	587	111	273	28	6	266	62	-19	+1	+0	+5	+12	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	CIN	54%	505	461	98	18	3	10	32	136	7	10	3	213	274	330	604	117	275	27	6	272	66	-19	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.1
2030	23	MLB	CIN	57%	545	497	107	19	3	12	36	145	7	11	3	215	278	338	616	123	276	27	7	276	69	-19	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.3
2031	24	MLB	CIN	57%	570	519	111	20	3	12	38	151	8	12	3	214	278	333	611	119	277	26	7	278	71	-19	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.5
2032	25	MLB	CIN	57%	583	531	115	21	3	13	39	154	8	12	3	217	280	341	621	124	277	26	7	278	71	-19	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.5
2027	20	MLB	CIN	34%	118	108	22	4	1	2	7	33	2	2	1	204	265	315	580	111	273	28	6	249	49	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	CIN	48%	213	195	41	8	1	4	13	58	3	4	1	210	270	323	593	113	276	27	6	259	56	-11	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	CIN	54%	274	250	55	10	2	6	18	74	4	5	1	220	283	348	631	128	278	27	7	265	61	-12	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	CIN	57%	308	281	61	11	2	7	20	82	4	6	2	217	279	345	624	128	279	27	6	269	64	-13	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.0
2031	24	MLB	CIN	57%	322	294	64	12	2	7	21	85	4	7	2	218	279	344	623	126	280	26	7	271	65	-13	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB	CIN	57%	329	300	65	12	2	7	22	87	4	7	2	217	279	340	619	123	280	26	7	271	66	-13	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1564	1429	308	57	10	33	101	419	21	31	9	216	277	339	616	123	279	27	6	266	62	-67	+3	+0	+17	+44	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	128	24	4	14	42	174	9	13	4	215	278	340	618	125	278	27	6	266	62	-28	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	3479	3180	657	116	21	67	219	973	52	74	25	207	269	319	588	113	273	28	6	264	60	-156	+5	+0	+37	+99	-1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	124	22	4	13	41	182	10	14	5	209	271	325	596	116	276	28	6	264	60	-29	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	72	-6	-1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	124	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,762	35	34	213	271	330	+19	+12	0.3	0.5
	/162	664	13	13	213	271	330	+7.1	+4.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Naibel Mariano (OGILVIE)	19	23→28	35→40	48→53	45	184/237/264	80	268	4	10	33%	5%	30	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	33	-2.9	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	70	-0.3	221/275/340	119	279	13	9	25%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	43→45	49→40	40	193/254/304	111	268	10	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	201/260/303	102	309	9	3	36%	6%	54	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Cam Gallagher 2012 · A	19	36	38→45	48→30	42	181/228/253	72	231	7	5	25%	6%	27	-3.3	197/248/283	86	230	7	3	17%	6%	43	-2.2	223/283/334	112	275	10	0	22%	7%	70	-0.1
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Victor Soto 2008 · A	19	39	39→45	48→60	39	189/241/283	94	268	6	12	31%	5%	40	-2.4	194/247/269	75	274	3	21	28%	5%	39	-2.5	184/234/247	64	257	1	30	27%	5%	25	-0.9
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	36	-2.7	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	39→37	38→40	48→40	47	187/266/269	83	245	4	8	24%	8%	49	-1.8	193/286/294	101	260	9	6	27%	11%	63	-0.8	179/279/276	97	240	10	4	28%	12%	55	-0.8
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2018 · A	19	39	37→45	48→40	44	188/255/263	75	232	5	3	21%	5%	42	-2.3	188/254/255	67	241	4	4	22%	7%	40	-2.4	197/250/284	87	241	8	1	22%	5%	43	-0.7
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	39→35	40	52→50	40	193/252/284	91	274	7	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	201/271/278	77	305	4	8	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Ranfy Adon 2017 · A	19	36	39→45	49→50	41	180/246/264	84	259	7	12	32%	7%	39	-2.5	198/245/300	102	329	8	12	40%	5%	46	-2.0	173/231/277	105	327	9	25	47%	5%	33	-0.6
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	37	-2.7	221/272/301	80	287	7	19	24%	6%	58	-1.2	235/283/299	64	302	5	24	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	48→45	38	194/251/289	95	288	8	7	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/259/275	78	321	4	8	37%	7%	46	-2.0	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Cristian Inoa 2018 · A	19	44→43	39→45	51→45	46	211/281/297	86	269	5	12	23%	7%	61	-1.0	208/280/291	83	281	4	8	25%	8%	59	-1.1	222/273/340	119	270	12	5	22%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Jose Bellorin 2010 · A	19	43	38→40	48→50	39	207/257/287	81	288	5	10	29%	5%	48	-1.9	216/271/299	83	268	6	10	21%	6%	57	-1.2	219/276/293	74	257	6	10	17%	6%	55	-0.4