Naibel Mariano — OGILVIE

Naibel MarianoSS ACL Reds

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION249 act + 25 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .200 / .208

PA25

HR0

K%28

BB%4

BABIP272

ISO42

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	75	-6	-1	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	121	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	176	22	2	1	1	16	80	8	3	5	125	230	165	395	40	210	40	8	182	9	-22	-1	—	—	+4	-1.9
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	137	28	4	1	3	4	43	2	9	3	204	238	314	552	109	276	30	3	238	47	-9	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	176	22	2	1	1	16	80	8	3	5	125	230	165	395	40	219	40	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	—	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	188	330	242	572	55	270	27	13	279	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	137	28	4	1	3	4	43	2	9	3	204	238	314	552	109	275	30	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	289	329	459	788	170	347	21	4	348	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	175	22	2	1	1	16	80	8	3	5	126	230	166	396	40	210	40	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	136	28	4	1	3	4	43	2	9	3	206	238	316	554	110	276	30	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	—	201	175	22	2	1	1	16	80	8	3	5	126	230	166	396	40	210	40	8	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	143	136	28	4	1	3	4	43	2	9	3	206	238	316	554	110	276	30	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	CIN	—	249	232	43	7	1	2	12	83	3	9	1	185	235	250	485	65	277	33	5	220	35	-19	+1	+0	+3	+5	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	CIN	—	249	223	59	11	2	3	21	58	3	9	1	265	336	372	708	108	344	23	8	319	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	CIN	0%	25	24	4	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	167	200	208	408	42	270	28	4	243	50	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	CIN	—	274	256	47	8	1	2	13	90	3	10	1	184	232	246	478	62	273	33	5	222	36	-21	+2	+0	+3	+6	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CIN	34%	281	259	54	10	2	4	17	77	3	5	1	208	265	309	574	100	275	27	6	259	62	-13	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	394	361	77	14	2	7	25	106	5	8	2	213	274	321	595	108	277	27	6	269	68	-15	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	473	434	95	17	3	10	30	125	6	10	2	219	279	341	620	122	279	26	6	276	73	-15	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	523	477	105	19	3	11	34	136	7	11	3	220	282	342	624	122	280	26	7	279	75	-16	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	555	507	111	20	3	12	36	144	7	12	3	219	280	341	621	122	281	26	6	281	76	-16	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	573	523	116	21	3	13	38	148	7	12	3	222	283	348	631	126	281	26	7	282	77	-16	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	582	530	117	21	3	13	39	151	8	12	3	221	284	345	630	125	281	26	7	282	77	-16	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	583	531	117	21	3	13	39	151	8	12	3	220	284	345	628	124	281	26	7	282	77	-16	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	578	525	116	21	3	13	40	151	8	12	3	221	286	347	633	126	280	26	7	282	77	-16	+1	-1	+6	+13	0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	569	518	113	20	3	12	39	150	7	11	3	218	282	338	620	120	280	26	7	280	76	-17	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	CIN	34%	97	90	19	3	1	2	6	27	1	2	0	211	268	333	601	122	278	28	6	255	62	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	191	175	38	7	1	4	12	51	2	4	1	217	275	337	612	120	280	27	6	265	68	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	257	235	51	9	1	6	17	68	3	5	1	217	278	340	619	123	282	26	7	271	73	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	296	271	61	11	2	7	19	77	4	6	1	225	286	358	644	133	283	26	6	275	75	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	314	286	64	12	2	7	21	81	4	7	2	224	286	353	639	129	284	26	7	277	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	324	296	67	12	2	8	21	84	4	7	2	226	287	361	648	135	284	26	6	278	77	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	329	300	67	12	2	8	22	85	4	7	2	223	285	357	642	133	284	26	7	278	77	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	323	294	67	12	2	8	22	84	4	7	2	228	291	364	655	136	284	26	7	278	77	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	317	288	65	12	2	7	22	83	4	7	2	226	290	354	644	128	283	26	7	277	77	-9	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	304	276	62	11	2	7	21	80	4	6	1	225	289	355	644	130	283	26	7	275	76	-9	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2752	2511	561	101	17	64	183	720	34	58	14	223	285	354	639	130	285	26	7	275	71	-82	+6	-1	+29	+60	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	133	24	4	15	43	170	8	14	3	224	286	354	640	130	286	26	7	275	71	-19	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5480	5002	1075	191	30	112	358	1469	76	118	34	215	278	332	610	117	279	27	7	274	71	-156	+11	-2	+55	+111	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	128	23	4	13	42	174	9	14	4	216	278	334	611	118	281	27	6	274	71	-20	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.4	2,913	60	60	219	278	340	+31	+18	2.9	2.9
/162	664	14	14	+7.1	+4.1	0.7	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Naibel Mariano (OGILVIE)	19	25→30	34→39	49→54	46	197/250/280	83	270	2	4	28%	5%	50	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	39	39→45	47→50	45	192/256/277	84	251	7	8	26%	7%	52	-2.2	210/290/338	128	295	14	8	31%	9%	79	-0.2	177/254/299	122	259	13	14	35%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	42→45	49→40	40	191/253/297	106	266	9	5	31%	6%	55	-1.9	201/259/305	104	303	9	3	35%	6%	59	-1.6	191/250/291	100	290	9	2	35%	5%	52	-1.1
✕Cam Gallagher 2012 · A	19	36	38→45	48→30	42	181/228/253	72	231	7	5	25%	6%	35	-3.4	195/246/281	86	228	7	3	17%	6%	49	-2.4	218/279/324	106	270	9	0	22%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	40	40	46→55	38	195/253/280	85	273	7	8	30%	5%	51	-2.2	200/258/297	97	283	8	10	31%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	44	-2.8	221/272/301	80	288	7	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	53	-2.1	211/261/303	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	59	-1.6	185/229/266	80	254	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Victor Soto 2008 · A	19	39	39→45	48→60	39	189/241/283	94	268	6	12	31%	5%	47	-2.6	194/247/269	75	274	3	21	28%	5%	46	-2.6	184/234/247	64	257	1	30	27%	5%	34	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→50	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	202/252/306	104	278	9	7	29%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	40→37	38→45	47→40	48	188/271/271	82	247	4	8	24%	8%	57	-1.8	195/289/294	99	262	9	6	26%	11%	70	-0.9	183/285/276	93	245	10	4	27%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	43	-2.8	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	57	-1.8	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2018 · A	19	39	37→45	48→40	44	188/255/263	75	232	5	3	21%	5%	49	-2.4	188/254/255	67	241	4	4	22%	7%	47	-2.6	198/251/279	81	242	7	1	21%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2011 · A	20	41	40→45	50	42	202/257/291	89	262	7	13	26%	6%	55	-2.0	224/279/352	128	280	13	10	24%	6%	78	-0.3	225/276/353	127	282	14	8	25%	5%	75	-0.2
✕Mariel Bautista 2017 · A	19	46→36	39→45	51→50	42	220/276/309	90	284	5	10	24%	5%	66	-1.1	221/267/313	92	280	7	16	23%	4%	63	-1.3	197/244/304	107	254	12	16	27%	4%	52	-1.0
✕Cristian Inoa 2018 · A	19	44	39→45	51→45	46	211/281/297	86	269	5	12	23%	7%	65	-1.2	207/279/289	82	278	4	8	25%	8%	63	-1.3	224/277/344	119	274	12	5	22%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→43	41→50	51→50	44	205/270/309	104	282	7	12	28%	7%	64	-1.3	200/251/288	88	282	6	11	30%	6%	52	-2.2	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→37	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	51	-2.2	202/266/283	81	296	5	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/261	67	295	4	7	33%	8%	48	-1.4
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps