Naibel Mariano — OGILVIE

Naibel MarianoSS DSL Reds

Age 19 R/R 6'3" / 182 lbs ROK HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 3.1 · 2034

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .275 / .319

PA119

HR2

K%29

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

22↗27

PWR

35↗40

SPD

49↗54

EYE

42↗47

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.9	$28M	+$27M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.0	$30M	+$29M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.1	$31M	+$30M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.9	$30M	+$24M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+2.7	$29M	+$20M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+2.5	$28M	+$15M
Totals		$30M		$176M	+$145M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	201	176	22	2	1	1	16	81	8	3	5	.125	.230	.165	.395	.040	.221	40	8	.181	-3	-23	-1	+0	+2	+6	-1.7
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	143	138	29	4	2	3	3	44	2	9	3	.210	.238	.333	.571	.123	.286	31	2	.238	40	-10	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	CIN	119	108	22	4	1	2	9	35	1	2	1	.204	.271	.315	.586	.111	.280	29	8	.271	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 11%	CIN	206	183	40	7	1	5	18	57	3	5	1	.219	.299	.350	.649	.131	.288	28	9	.292	82	-4	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.5
2028	21	MLB 28%	CIN	337	298	68	12	2	9	31	90	5	8	2	.228	.311	.372	.684	.144	.290	27	9	.304	91	-4	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.1
2029	22	MLB 48%	CIN	432	382	89	16	3	12	41	112	6	10	2	.233	.317	.385	.702	.152	.290	26	9	.313	98	-1	+1	+0	+5	+12	1.7
2030	23	MLB 65%	CIN	496	437	102	18	3	15	49	125	7	11	3	.233	.320	.391	.712	.158	.291	25	10	.319	102	+1	+1	+0	+5	+14	2.2
2031	24	MLB 82%	CIN	537	471	112	20	3	17	54	134	7	12	3	.238	.325	.401	.726	.163	.291	25	10	.323	105	+3	+1	+0	+6	+15	2.6
2032	25	MLB	CIN	561	490	117	21	3	18	58	139	8	12	3	.239	.329	.404	.733	.165	.292	25	10	.326	108	+5	+1	+0	+6	+16	2.9
2033	26	MLB	CIN	574	501	119	21	3	19	60	142	8	12	3	.238	.329	.405	.734	.168	.292	25	10	.328	109	+6	+1	+0	+6	+16	3.0
2034	27	MLB	CIN	578	504	120	21	3	19	61	144	8	12	2	.238	.330	.405	.735	.167	.292	25	11	.328	109	+6	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.1
2035	28	MLB	CIN	575	501	118	21	3	18	61	144	8	12	2	.236	.328	.397	.725	.162	.292	25	11	.327	108	+5	+2	-1	+6	+16	2.9
2036	29	MLB	CIN	567	493	116	20	3	18	61	144	8	11	2	.235	.329	.398	.727	.162	.291	25	11	.325	107	+4	+1	-1	+6	+16	2.7
2037	30	MLB	CIN	557	484	113	20	3	17	60	143	8	11	1	.233	.328	.393	.720	.159	.289	26	11	.321	104	+3	+2	-2	+6	+16	2.5
2038	31	MLB	CIN	543	473	108	19	3	16	58	142	7	9	0	.228	.322	.383	.704	.154	.288	26	11	.318	101	+1	+2	-3	+6	+15	2.1
2039	32	MLB	CIN	525	457	103	18	3	15	56	140	7	9	0	.225	.319	.376	.696	.151	.286	27	11	.313	98	-1	+2	-4	+6	+15	1.8
2040	33	MLB	CIN	496	434	95	16	2	14	53	135	6	8	0	.219	.312	.362	.674	.143	.285	27	11	.307	93	-4	+2	-4	+5	+14	1.3
2041	34	MLB	CIN	449	392	84	14	2	12	48	126	6	7	0	.214	.309	.352	.661	.138	.283	28	11	.301	88	-6	+1	-5	+5	+13	0.8
2042	35	MLB	CIN	395	346	73	12	2	10	41	115	5	7	0	.211	.304	.344	.648	.133	.281	29	10	.293	82	-8	+1	-6	+4	+11	0.3
2043	36	MLB	CIN	335	293	61	10	2	8	35	101	4	6	0	.208	.301	.338	.639	.130	.278	30	10	.284	76	-9	+1	-6	+4	+9	-0.1
2044	37	MLB	CIN	270	237	47	8	1	6	28	84	3	5	0	.198	.291	.316	.608	.118	.274	31	10	.274	68	-10	+1	-7	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8896	7798	1758	304	49	254	901	2377	125	181	33	.225	.316	.375	.690	.149	.289	27	10	.309	95	-51	+23	-38	+95	+252	28.7
/ 162G	—			650	570	129	22	4	19	66	174	9	13	2	.226	.316	.379	.695	.153	.289	27	10	.309	95	-4	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rojos	201	165	31	4	1	1	27	54	8	3	5	.188	.330	.242	.572	.055	.270	27	13	.279	72	-6	-1	—	—	+6	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Reds	143	135	39	7	2	4	6	30	2	9	3	.289	.329	.459	.788	.170	.347	21	4	.348	124	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Naibel Mariano (OGILVIE)	19	22→27	35→40	49→54	47	.205/.275/.319	.114	.280	2	2	29%	8%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	42	42→45	47→50	43	.205/.277/.309	.104	.271	9	8	27%	6%	64	-0.8	.224/.284/.326	.102	.290	5	11	24%	5%	70	-0.3	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	40	42→50	48→55	43	.195/.271/.297	.102	.274	9	9	31%	8%	58	-1.2	.218/.289/.357	.139	.282	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	.220/.291/.383	.163	.271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	39→41	42→50	53→55	44	.191/.270/.293	.102	.283	10	11	34%	8%	56	-1.3	.199/.283/.318	.119	.317	11	15	37%	9%	69	-0.4	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	43→42	45→40	53→65	45	.213/.281/.336	.123	.279	13	11	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.194/.288/.298	.104	.270	9	21	29%	10%	66	-0.6	.165/.260/.259	.093	.238	9	30	32%	10%	44	-1.1
✕Cristian Santana 2023 · A	19	38→20	45	46→45	47	.187/.304/.312	.125	.282	13	11	35%	10%	78	+0.2	.156/.295/.274	.118	.251	13	7	39%	13%	66	-0.6	.123/.282/.246	.123	.185	16	4	39%	15%	54	-0.8
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	39	42→45	49→40	40	.193/.254/.299	.106	.268	9	5	30%	6%	50	-1.7	.202/.259/.307	.105	.300	9	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	.191/.250/.292	.101	.288	9	2	35%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	39	38→55	47→45	39	.185/.251/.256	.071	.289	6	6	36%	7%	39	-2.5	.226/.287/.352	.126	.291	13	7	26%	6%	79	+0.3	.248/.309/.417	.169	.290	19	6	21%	6%	103	+0.7
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	41→34	42→60	47→50	44	.203/.269/.309	.106	.273	10	12	28%	7%	59	-1.1	.209/.266/.356	.147	.291	17	11	33%	7%	70	-0.3	.209/.277/.424	.216	.279	30	13	36%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	49→37	40→45	54→55	45	.229/.303/.328	.098	.328	7	17	30%	8%	79	+0.3	.197/.323/.323	.126	.275	12	20	30%	11%	89	+1.0	.179/.324/.312	.133	.244	14	22	29%	12%	86	+0.5
✕Cesar Quintas 2022 · A	19	46→36	40→45	50	43	.220/.300/.314	.095	.296	7	7	26%	6%	75	-0.0	.204/.282/.283	.079	.308	6	5	33%	6%	59	-1.1	.200/.289/.313	.113	.283	11	6	31%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45	41→55	55	43	.216/.285/.315	.099	.290	7	13	27%	7%	68	-0.5	.204/.313/.323	.119	.295	10	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	.202/.308/.336	.135	.284	11	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A	19	40→44	41→55	48→50	50	.198/.276/.300	.102	.259	8	6	26%	9%	60	-1.0	.193/.268/.290	.097	.299	8	7	35%	8%	54	-1.4	.213/.322/.409	.196	.275	24	9	30%	12%	106	+1.6
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	42→36	38→45	47→60	48	.195/.289/.277	.082	.295	5	8	32%	10%	61	-1.0	.192/.285/.295	.103	.282	10	14	33%	9%	64	-0.8	.179/.278/.292	.113	.261	13	23	34%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	49→45	39	.197/.255/.295	.097	.291	9	7	34%	6%	50	-1.8	.195/.258/.274	.079	.317	4	8	37%	7%	45	-2.1	.166/.241/.231	.064	.289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Orelvis Martinez 2021 · A	19	42→35	47→60	53→40	42	.213/.270/.351	.139	.273	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.3	.204/.270/.403	.199	.260	27	4	33%	7%	85	+0.7	.189/.259/.396	.207	.229	30	3	33%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	42	41→45	48→40	42	.201/.285/.303	.102	.283	9	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.212/.287/.333	.121	.279	13	5	27%	7%	74	-0.1	.211/.275/.332	.121	.267	15	2	26%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	.199/.262/.281	.083	.258	5	7	24%	6%	50	-1.8	.211/.287/.284	.073	.267	5	9	21%	9%	61	-1.0	.221/.317/.274	.053	.274	5	10	19%	11%	69	-0.2
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→40	41→50	46→40	44	.207/.262/.297	.091	.272	9	9	27%	7%	53	-1.5	.205/.256/.301	.096	.278	8	7	27%	6%	51	-1.7	.210/.263/.325	.115	.276	10	3	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→35	41→45	47→50	40	.199/.265/.295	.096	.286	9	10	32%	6%	55	-1.4	.204/.294/.305	.101	.301	9	8	32%	10%	70	-0.3	.186/.292/.283	.097	.277	9	10	33%	11%	63	-0.5
✕Mairoshendrick Martinus 2023 · A	18	41→38	45→50	51→50	41	.206/.265/.330	.123	.286	12	10	31%	6%	63	-0.8	.179/.232/.274	.095	.315	9	12	43%	6%	34	-2.8	.159/.213/.235	.076	.282	8	15	44%	6%	16	-1.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)