Naibel Mariano
SS ACL Reds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Rojos | 201 | .188/.330/.242 | 1 | 3 | 7 | — | .109/.225/.132 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKCIN | 143 | .289/.329/.459 | 4 | 9 | 25 | — | .175/.210/.263 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKCIN | 249 | .265/.336/.372 | 3 | 9 | 34 | — | .181/.231/.246 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBCIN | 359 | .202/.259/.291 | 4 | 6 | 55 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBCIN | 62 | .209/.267/.312 | 1 | 1 | 61 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBCIN | 139 | .213/.273/.325 | 3 | 3 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 165 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 188 | 330 | 242 | 572 | 55 | 270 | 27 | 13 | 279 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 135 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 289 | 329 | 459 | 788 | 170 | 347 | 21 | 4 | 348 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 223 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 58 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 265 | 336 | 372 | 708 | 108 | 344 | 23 | 8 | 319 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 174 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 109 | 225 | 132 | 357 | 23 | 175 | 34 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 175 | 210 | 263 | 473 | 88 | 225 | 26 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 232 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 83 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 231 | 246 | 476 | 65 | 274 | 33 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 174 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 109 | 225 | 132 | 357 | 23 | 178 | 34 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 165 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 188 | 330 | 242 | 572 | 55 | 270 | 27 | 13 | 279 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 175 | 210 | 263 | 473 | 88 | 224 | 26 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 135 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 289 | 329 | 459 | 788 | 170 | 347 | 21 | 4 | 348 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 232 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 83 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 231 | 246 | 476 | 65 | 270 | 33 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 223 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 58 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 265 | 336 | 372 | 708 | 108 | 344 | 23 | 8 | 319 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 173 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 110 | 225 | 133 | 358 | 23 | 175 | 34 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 136 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 176 | 210 | 265 | 474 | 88 | 225 | 26 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 232 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 83 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 231 | 246 | 476 | 65 | 274 | 33 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rojos | — | 201 | 173 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 68 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 110 | 225 | 133 | 358 | 23 | 175 | 34 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 143 | 136 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 176 | 210 | 265 | 474 | 88 | 225 | 26 | 3 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 249 | 232 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 83 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 181 | 231 | 246 | 476 | 65 | 274 | 33 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | CIN | 0% | 359 | 331 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 98 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 89 | 271 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | -19 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | CIN | 34% | 181 | 166 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 266 | 307 | 573 | 99 | 273 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | CIN | 48% | 287 | 264 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 76 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 212 | 271 | 319 | 590 | 107 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | CIN | 54% | 374 | 343 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 98 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 275 | 328 | 603 | 113 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | CIN | 55% | 430 | 394 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 111 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 218 | 279 | 334 | 613 | 117 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 275 | 73 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | CIN | 56% | 460 | 421 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 118 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 281 | 339 | 620 | 120 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 56% | 476 | 436 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 122 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 219 | 281 | 338 | 619 | 119 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 60% | 481 | 441 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 124 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 218 | 280 | 336 | 616 | 118 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 62% | 479 | 439 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 125 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 216 | 278 | 331 | 609 | 115 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 63% | 469 | 430 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 124 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 275 | 326 | 601 | 112 | 277 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 69 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 63% | 459 | 421 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 122 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 211 | 272 | 318 | 590 | 107 | 275 | 27 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -18 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | CIN | 34% | 62 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 103 | 274 | 27 | 6 | 261 | 61 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | CIN | 48% | 139 | 127 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 273 | 325 | 597 | 111 | 276 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 66 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | CIN | 54% | 203 | 186 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 334 | 611 | 117 | 278 | 26 | 6 | 274 | 70 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | CIN | 55% | 238 | 217 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 280 | 341 | 621 | 122 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 279 | 73 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | CIN | 56% | 258 | 236 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 283 | 345 | 628 | 124 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 74 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 56% | 268 | 245 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 69 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 221 | 283 | 345 | 628 | 124 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 281 | 74 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 60% | 287 | 263 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 74 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 282 | 343 | 624 | 123 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 280 | 73 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 62% | 295 | 270 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 77 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 218 | 280 | 338 | 618 | 120 | 279 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 72 | -10 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 63% | 294 | 269 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 77 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 277 | 332 | 609 | 116 | 277 | 26 | 7 | 274 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 63% | 291 | 267 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 78 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 273 | 324 | 598 | 111 | 276 | 27 | 7 | 269 | 66 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2335 | 2137 | 467 | 80 | 16 | 49 | 155 | 610 | 26 | 47 | 16 | 219 | 280 | 340 | 619 | 121 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 64 | -81 | +3 | -3 | +25 | +51 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 130 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 170 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 218 | 279 | 339 | 619 | 121 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 64 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4825 | 4423 | 919 | 161 | 30 | 84 | 311 | 1294 | 59 | 105 | 36 | 208 | 269 | 315 | 584 | 107 | 272 | 27 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -150 | +6 | -4 | +45 | +92 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 124 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 174 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 208 | 269 | 314 | 583 | 106 | 273 | 27 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Reds · 249 PAwOBA .310 → .219 (−92)K% 23.3% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×0.995 | 21.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.011 | ×0.995 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.011 | ×0.995 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.41% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .310 → .219; ISO .108 → .073; BABIP .344 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Reds · 143 PAwOBA .338 → .205 (−133)K% 21.0% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.98% | ÷0.993 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.20% | ÷1.038 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.76% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×1.010 | ×0.995 | 17.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.065 | ×0.600 | ×1.010 | ×0.995 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.010 | ×0.995 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.994 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.79% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .338 → .205; ISO .170 → .087; BABIP .347 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Rojos · 201 PAwOBA .275 → .179 (−96)K% 26.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.98% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 14.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.60% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 2.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.43% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .275 → .179; ISO .055 → .029; BABIP .270 → .175. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).