Alfredo Alcantara

SS Dayton Dragons
Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 165 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2318ETA2030MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKCIN205.189/.325/.302549—.110/.207/.171
202519A/ROKCIN328.295/.446/.45781093—.226/.353/.339
202620A+CIN433.214/.317/.36214453—.181/.261/.295
2027PROJMLE21MLBCIN1.186/.275/.3090064-0.0
2028PROJ25% MLB22MLBCIN96.193/.282/.3253170-0.1
2029PROJ38% MLB23MLBCIN164.198/.287/.3375275-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
ISO50
BB%50
Chase%42
K%41
Z-Con%34
wOBA28
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%
CompsJhostynxon Garcia (age 21) · Kevin Padlo (age 21) · Sammy Hernandez (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .275 / .309
PA1
HR0
K%30
BB%9
BABIP242
ISO108
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -2.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.10.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-3$2M———
Totals $0.0M $0.5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Reds — 152120 32905 24326 21 267413467880 200321 2116 391 58 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Reds — 205169 32405 29745 42 189325302627 112293 3614 294 9 — — — — — —
202519 ADaytona Tortugas — 139105 28406 213011 32 267438476914 210319 2215 408 113 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Reds — 189149 471302 33444 71 315452443895 128425 2317 401 79 — — — — — —
202620 A+Dayton Dragons — 433373 8011114 501126 43 214317362679 147265 2612 307 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 152127 22603 17406 21 173300291591 118206 2611 254 58 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Reds — 205181 20203 171085 42 110207171378 61231 538 181 9 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 139110 26305 164011 32 236387400787 164307 2912 335 113 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Reds — 189160 35901 22634 71 219328294622 75331 3312 285 79 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 433387 709111 361426 43 181261295556 114244 338 246 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 152127 22603 17406 21 173300291591 118224 2611 254 58 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Reds — 152120 32905 24326 21 267413467880 200321 2116 391 58 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Reds — 205181 20203 171085 42 110207171378 61236 538 181 9 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL Reds — 205169 32405 29745 42 189325302627 112293 3614 294 9 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 328271 621306 3710315 103 229353343696 114339 3111 306 93 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAW2 teams — 328254 751708 547415 103 295446457903 161383 2316 404 93 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 433387 709111 361426 43 181261295556 114250 338 246 53 — — — — — —
202620 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 433373 8011114 501126 43 214317362679 147265 2612 307 53 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Reds — 152128 22603 17406 21 172300289589 117206 2611 254 58 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Reds — 205181 20203 171085 42 110207171378 61231 538 181 9 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 328273 621306 3710315 103 227353341694 114321 3111 306 93 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 433388 709111 361426 43 180261294555 113244 338 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL Reds — 205181 20203 171085 42 110207171378 61231 538 181 9 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 328273 621306 3710315 103 227353341694 114321 3111 306 93 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 433388 709111 361426 43 180261294555 113244 338 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECIN 0% 543479 8814113 4916010 63 184273300573 116241 299 263 64 -23 +0 -6 +6 +12 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXCIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 186275309584 123242 00 267 64 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECIN 25% 381336 6410110 351097 42 190280315595 125244 299 272 70 -14 +0 -4 +4 +8 -0.5
202923 MLB MLECIN 38% 427377 7412112 391198 52 195285327612 132247 289 278 75 -13 +0 -3 +5 +9 -0.2
203024 MLB MLECIN 44% 474419 8313114 441308 62 199289336624 136250 279 283 78 -12 +0 -3 +5 +10 0.1
203125 MLB MLECIN 47% 527464 9315115 491439 63 202291341632 139253 279 286 80 -13 +0 -3 +6 +11 0.2
203226 MLB MLECIN 49% 545480 9916216 511469 63 204293344637 140255 279 288 81 -12 +0 -3 +6 +12 0.2
203327 MLB MLECIN 49% 545480 9716116 511479 63 203292342634 138254 279 287 80 -13 +0 -3 +6 +12 0.2
203428 MLB MLECIN 49% 539475 9616115 501479 42 202290337627 136253 279 284 79 -14 +0 -4 +6 +12 -0.0
203529 MLB MLECIN 48% 527464 9315115 491459 22 199287331618 132252 289 281 76 -15 -0 -4 +6 +11 -0.3
203630 MLB MLECIN 52% 513453 8914114 471438 12 197284324608 127250 289 277 73 -16 -1 -5 +5 +11 -0.5
202822 MLB CTXCIN 25% 9685 16203 9272 10 193282325607 132245 289 276 70 -3 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.1
202923 MLB CTXCIN 38% 164145 28405 15463 21 198287337624 139248 289 283 75 -5 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.1
203024 MLB CTXCIN 44% 209184 38617 19574 31 202291346637 143252 279 288 78 -5 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.0
203125 MLB CTXCIN 47% 249220 45718 23674 31 205294352645 146254 279 291 80 -6 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.1
203226 MLB CTXCIN 49% 268236 50819 25725 31 207295355650 147256 279 293 81 -6 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.1
203327 MLB CTXCIN 49% 268237 49818 25724 31 206294352646 146255 279 292 80 -6 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.1
203428 MLB CTXCIN 49% 265234 48818 25724 21 204292347640 143255 279 289 79 -7 +0 -2 +3 +6 -0.0
203529 MLB CTXCIN 48% 254225 46718 23704 11 202289341631 139253 289 286 76 -7 -0 -2 +3 +6 -0.1
203630 MLB CTXCIN 52% 266236 47718 24744 01 199286333619 134252 289 281 73 -8 -0 -3 +3 +6 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20391802 36757764 18855734 188 204291350641 146255 279 288 73 -54 +0 -15 +22 +44 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 11618220 6017811 63 202290345635 143253 279 288 73 -17 +0 -5 +7 +14 -0.1
Career— MLE — 58065099 99516211155 5411684112 6231 195287322609 127255 299 276 73 -130 -0 -35 +50 +102 -1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650571 11118117 6118913 73 194287319606 124255 299 276 73 -18 -0 -5 +7 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 433 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−54)K% 25.9% → 32.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.87%÷1.000×1.270——32.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.55%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0278.42%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.790—×1.0271.12%
Singles /BIP20.69%÷1.000×0.920×1.007×1.02719.69%
Doubles /BIP4.21%÷1.000×0.810×1.007×1.0273.53%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷1.000×0.850×1.007×1.0270.34%
Home runs /BIP5.36%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0274.41%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .265 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 189 PAwOBA .398 → .285 (−112)K% 23.3% → 33.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.28%÷1.010×1.440——33.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.46%÷0.931×0.620—×0.99511.57%
HBP% /PA2.12%—×0.720—×0.9951.52%
Singles /BIP30.48%÷1.039×0.820×1.016×0.99524.31%
Doubles /BIP12.38%÷0.963×0.720×1.016×0.9959.35%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720×1.016×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP1.90%÷1.252×0.780—×0.9951.18%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .398 → .285; ISO .128 → .088; BABIP .425 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 139 PAwOBA .398 → .335 (−63)K% 21.6% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.58%÷1.008×1.360——29.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.11%÷0.956×0.690—×1.03011.23%
HBP% /PA7.91%—×0.780—×1.0306.36%
Singles /BIP24.00%÷0.980×0.920×1.050×1.03024.38%
Doubles /BIP5.33%÷1.088×0.830×1.050×1.0304.40%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.050×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP8.00%÷1.032×0.800—×1.0306.39%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .398 → .335; ISO .210 → .166; BABIP .319 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Reds · 205 PAwOBA .288 → .181 (−107)K% 36.1% → 52.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.10%÷0.989×1.440——52.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.66%÷1.005×0.620—×1.0088.49%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.720—×1.0081.77%
Singles /BIP24.21%÷0.970×0.820×0.980×1.00820.21%
Doubles /BIP4.21%÷1.144×0.720×0.980×1.0082.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.144×0.720×0.980×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷1.063×0.780—×1.0083.89%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 129, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .288 → .181; ISO .112 → .064; BABIP .293 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Reds · 152 PAwOBA .384 → .254 (−130)K% 21.1% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.05%÷0.988×1.220——26.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.79%÷1.026×0.700—×1.00810.85%
HBP% /PA3.95%—×0.700—×1.0082.78%
Singles /BIP20.45%÷1.015×0.680×1.005×1.00813.88%
Doubles /BIP10.23%÷0.975×0.600×1.005×1.0086.37%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.600×1.005×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP5.68%÷0.917×0.470—×1.0082.93%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .384 → .254; ISO .200 → .116; BABIP .321 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).