Alfredo AlcantaraSS Dayton Dragons
Age 20 R/R 5'9" / 165 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 ROS PROJECTION330 act + 220 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†53
AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .266 / .271
PA220
HR5
K%31
BB%10
BABIP227
ISO104
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -30.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-30BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -2.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +5.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+6POSREP: +15.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+16REPTotal WAR: -1.20-1.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.40.50.50.50.4+$11M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT39
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED53
scouting grade only
DEFENSE42
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2032Arb-1$1M+0.5$1M+$0.6M
2033Arb-2$2M+0.5$1M+$0.2M
2034Arb-3$2M+0.4$0.9M+$0.0M
Totals $7M $6M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Reds — 152130 26705 14476 21 200307369676 169266 319 284 76 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Reds — 152120 32905 24326 21 267413467880 200321 2116 391 157 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Reds — 205181 21203 171095 42 116212177389 61254 538 177 -6 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Reds — 205169 32405 29745 42 189325302627 112293 3614 294 83 — — — — — —
202519 ROK2 teams — 328267 591306 4110415 103 221356337693 116331 3212 309 95 — — — — — —
202519 ROK2 teams — 328254 751708 547415 103 295446457903 161383 2316 404 167 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD20 A+CIN — 330293 52719 281045 43 177261300561 123236 328 250 50 -19 -0 +0 +4 +9 -0.6
YTD20 A+CIN — 330282 639112 39775 43 223328390718 167262 2312 322 104 +2 -0 +0 +4 +9 1.4
ROS20 A+CIN 0% 220192 32505 21695 31 167266271537 104232 3110 255 53 -12 +0 -2 +2 +6 -0.5
ROS20 MLBCIN 0% 11 0000 000 00 234 00 242 43 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL20 A+CIN — 331294 52719 281045 43 177260299559 122235 318 250 50 -19 -0 -0 +4 +9 -0.7
TOT20 A+CIN — 550485 8412114 4917310 74 173263289552 115233 319 252 51 -30 -0 -2 +6 +16 -1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBCIN 25% 579508 9215115 5517311 63 181275303578 122240 309 269 64 -23 +0 -6 +6 +16 -0.7
202822 MLBCIN 38% 594521 10017117 5717111 63 192285326612 134245 2910 279 72 -19 +0 -6 +6 +17 -0.2
202923 MLBCIN 45% 600526 10317118 5816811 63 196289335624 139248 2810 286 77 -16 +0 -6 +6 +17 0.1
203024 MLBCIN 48% 599525 10618219 5816611 63 202295352647 150250 2810 290 80 -14 +0 -6 +6 +17 0.4
203125 MLBCIN 50% 594520 10618219 5816411 63 204297356653 152250 2810 292 81 -12 +0 -6 +6 +17 0.5
203226 MLBCIN 51% 590516 10317119 5816211 63 200294347641 147250 2710 293 82 -12 +0 -6 +6 +17 0.5
203327 MLBCIN 50% 588513 10317119 5916211 63 201297349646 148250 2810 293 82 -12 +0 -6 +6 +17 0.5
203428 MLBCIN 50% 582507 10117118 5916111 63 199296343640 144250 2810 292 82 -12 +0 -7 +6 +16 0.4
203529 MLBCIN 49% 571497 9917118 5816011 53 199297346643 147249 2810 290 80 -13 -0 -7 +6 +16 0.2
203630 MLBCIN 48% 560488 9616117 5715810 52 197294338632 141248 2810 288 78 -14 +0 -8 +6 +16 0.0
203731 MLBCIN 52% 545475 9215116 5515510 42 194291331621 137246 2810 284 75 -15 +0 -8 +6 +15 -0.2
203832 MLBCIN 55% 526459 8714115 531529 32 190286322608 133243 2910 279 72 -17 -0 -9 +6 +15 -0.6
202721 MLBCIN 25% 146128 23404 14443 21 180276305581 125242 3010 258 55 -7 +0 -2 +2 +4 -0.3
202822 MLBCIN 38% 228200 40717 22664 21 200292350642 150247 2910 268 63 -9 +0 -2 +2 +6 -0.3
202923 MLBCIN 45% 273240 47818 26775 31 196288338625 142251 2810 275 69 -10 +0 -3 +3 +8 -0.2
203024 MLBCIN 48% 288253 51919 28805 32 202294352645 150253 2810 279 72 -9 -0 -3 +3 +8 -0.1
203125 MLBCIN 50% 295259 539110 29815 32 205297363660 158253 2710 281 73 -9 -0 -3 +3 +8 -0.1
203226 MLBCIN 51% 298261 549110 29826 32 207301364665 157253 2810 282 74 -9 -0 -3 +3 +8 -0.0
203327 MLBCIN 50% 294258 539110 29815 32 205298364662 159253 2810 282 74 -9 -0 -3 +3 +8 -0.0
203428 MLBCIN 50% 289253 51919 29805 31 202296352648 150252 2810 281 74 -9 +0 -3 +3 +8 -0.1
203529 MLBCIN 49% 277242 49819 28775 31 202298355654 153252 2810 280 72 -9 +0 -4 +3 +8 -0.1
203630 MLBCIN 48% 267233 47818 27755 21 202298348646 146250 2810 277 70 -9 +0 -4 +3 +8 -0.2
203731 MLBCIN 52% 281246 49819 28805 21 199294350644 150248 2810 274 68 -10 +0 -4 +3 +8 -0.4
203832 MLBCIN 55% 287251 48809 29835 21 191288331618 139245 2910 269 64 -12 +0 -5 +3 +8 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 32242825 5659610102 31890658 3116 200294349643 149253 2810 276 70 -110 -0 -39 +35 +91 -2.4
/ 162G— — 650570 11419221 6418312 63 200294351645 151253 2810 276 70 -22 +0 -8 +7 +18 -0.5
Career— — 78336825 132622514229 7782281159 8440 194292332624 138252 2910 283 75 -221 +1 -85 +84 +222 0.1
/ 162G— — 650566 11019119 6518913 73 194292332624 138251 2910 283 75 -18 +0 -7 +7 +18 0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Reds — 152120 32905 24326 21 267413467880 200321 2116 391 157 +10 +0 — — +4 1.4
202418 ROKACL Reds — 205169 32405 29745 42 189325302627 112293 3614 294 83 -4 +0 — — +6 0.2
202519 ADaytona Tortugas — 139105 28406 213011 32 267438476914 210319 2215 408 170 +11 -0 — — +4 1.5
202519 ROKACL Reds — 189149 471302 33444 71 315452443895 128425 2317 401 165 +14 +1 — — +5 2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14
career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA
114,0091346234301398+72+716.915.7
/162664221+11.9+1.22.8pk7: 14
career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA
93,1271105235308414+56-1014.114.8
/162664231+11.9-2.13.0pk7: 16
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA
83,2679864221297378+16+3611.011.4
/1626642013+3.2+7.32.2pk7: 12
#4Luis Valbuenalast yr '18
career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA
103,52711310226311395+13+110.511.2
/162664212+2.4+0.12.0pk7: 12
#5Trevor Plouffelast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA
73,17810312243306411+14-188.48.4
/162664223+2.8-3.81.8pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons
63,2259931198290341+35-194.23.8
/162664206+7.1-3.90.9pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alfredo Alcantara (OGILVIE) 20 20→39 40→45 60→53 60 173/263/289 115233 147 31% 9% 51 -1.2 ————————— —————————
✕Kevin Padlo
2016 · A 		20 38→40 45→55 50 46 193/270/323 130263 128 30% 9% 64 -0.8 183/268/311 128268 128 34% 10% 60 -1.0 195/265/371176262221234%8%73-0.1
✕Jhostynxon Garcia
2023 · A 		20 37→41 41→55 48→50 44 180/262/280 101277 88 36% 9% 50 -1.8 198/258/332 134287 1410 34% 6% 61 -1.0 217/272/375157286211031%5%75+0.0
✕Bryan Ramos
2022 · A 		20 39→43 45→50 49→50 40 199/265/323 124270 138 30% 6% 63 -0.9 211/270/351 140268 185 28% 6% 72 -0.2 205/264/34213725519527%6%63-0.6
✕Rey Duran
2009 · A 		20 36 41→50 49→40 41 183/243/277 94256 96 31% 6% 40 -2.4 213/267/338 125268 145 25% 6% 66 -0.6 210/263/34913924619223%5%65-0.3
✕Jeter Downs
2018 · A 		20 42→40 43→50 47→55 47 208/276/316 107257 119 23% 7% 64 -0.8 211/277/355 144271 1517 27% 7% 75 -0.0 175/266/324149236182633%9%63-0.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn
2009 · A 		20 39 43→45 42→50 48 193/294/300 106278 1110 32% 10% 69 -0.4 183/263/286 103286 106 37% 8% 52 -1.6 153/236/25410123711238%9%32-0.9
✕Christian Lopes
2013 · A 		20 42→50 42→45 53→50 42 207/256/324 117265 88 25% 5% 57 -1.2 204/258/280 76260 44 22% 6% 46 -2.0 218/301/343126271131323%9%80+0.2
✕Jose Cordoba
2023 · A 		20 37 41→45 44→55 39 187/251/282 95271 109 33% 6% 46 -2.0 202/259/294 92279 611 28% 6% 51 -1.7 199/258/2929326841526%6%47-0.8
✕Jesus Galiz
2023 · A 		19 38 43→45 49→40 40 193/254/304 111268 105 31% 6% 53 -1.5 201/260/303 102309 93 36% 6% 54 -1.4 189/250/287982958237%6%45-1.0
✕Ceddanne Rafaela
2021 · A 		20 41→48 42→55 52→55 41 203/255/306 103257 1013 25% 5% 53 -1.5 230/269/385 155293 1619 27% 4% 79 +0.3 247/287/396150298152022%4%88+0.7
✕Jeferson Quero
2023 · A 		20 44→42 44→50 49→45 41 219/269/335 116284 129 27% 6% 66 -0.6 226/283/364 138283 167 25% 7% 79 +0.3 225/289/37014526918423%7%82+0.3
✕Hoy Park
2016 · A 		20 40→49 41→45 47→55 46 196/269/296 99264 811 28% 8% 56 -1.3 205/280/294 89283 516 27% 8% 59 -1.1 227/314/3259830081725%10%79+0.2
✕Miguel Amaya
2019 · A 		20 43→42 45→50 48→40 45 215/281/332 117268 134 25% 7% 71 -0.3 214/290/343 129271 144 25% 8% 78 +0.2 228/299/36814027116122%7%86+0.3
✕Christian Cerda
2023 · A 		20 40→37 40 50→40 50 194/278/287 93254 69 25% 9% 58 -1.2 189/282/293 104252 114 27% 11% 62 -0.9 173/268/27510122312227%11%50-1.2
✕Carter Jensen
2023 · A 		20 35→45 42→55 45→50 44 176/254/278 102265 97 35% 9% 46 -2.0 196/287/331 135277 149 32% 11% 73 -0.1 224/298/39617229121829%9%92+0.9
✕John Tolisano
2009 · A 		20 38→47 42→50 50 44 189/251/293 104258 96 30% 8% 47 -1.9 196/258/316 120267 126 30% 8% 56 -1.3 204/271/341137267141228%8%65-0.4
✕Rodolfo Castro
2019 · A 		20 38→40 43→55 47→50 36 194/233/304 111269 105 32% 4% 42 -2.3 197/238/344 147275 176 34% 5% 56 -1.3 205/272/358153266191130%7%72-0.2
✕Oswaldo Linares
2023 · A 		20 42 41→40 48→40 52 203/299/297 93263 96 25% 10% 70 -0.3 188/285/268 80281 74 32% 11% 57 -1.2 161/265/226652476233%11%36-1.0
✕Brayan Buelvas
2022 · A 		20 38→40 44→50 51→55 40 195/255/315 120270 1213 32% 6% 55 -1.4 189/251/317 128263 1317 32% 6% 54 -1.4 182/244/294112275111436%7%42-1.3
✕Maximo Rivera
2012 · A 		19 35 41→45 47→60 41 179/238/272 93242 1013 30% 6% 37 -2.7 221/272/301 80287 719 24% 6% 58 -1.2 235/283/2996430252423%5%60-0.3