Jeral Perez
3B Winston-Salem Dash| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ACWS | 481 | .262/.374/.423 | 12 | 4 | 79 | — | .210/.303/.336 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+CWS | 537 | .244/.318/.448 | 22 | 10 | 68 | — | .200/.254/.369 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+CWS | 502 | .229/.333/.361 | 11 | 5 | 58 | — | .194/.269/.301 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBCWS | 1 | .210/.275/.350 | 0 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBCWS | 168 | .214/.281/.361 | 5 | 2 | 79 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBCWS | 246 | .218/.285/.369 | 7 | 3 | 82 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 205 | 176 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 278 | 374 | 500 | 874 | 222 | 301 | 17 | 12 | 382 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 27 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 407 | 333 | 741 | 95 | 333 | 22 | 19 | 352 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 221 | 179 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 51 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 257 | 393 | 503 | 895 | 246 | 294 | 23 | 16 | 392 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 404 | 106 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 110 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 374 | 423 | 797 | 161 | 328 | 23 | 13 | 357 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 480 | 117 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 112 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 318 | 448 | 766 | 204 | 271 | 21 | 8 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 248 | 217 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 180 | 282 | 281 | 563 | 101 | 243 | 28 | 11 | 264 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 254 | 215 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 279 | 382 | 442 | 824 | 163 | 317 | 17 | 13 | 366 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 205 | 182 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 165 | 251 | 280 | 531 | 115 | 187 | 20 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 27 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 370 | 318 | 689 | 91 | 318 | 30 | 15 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 221 | 192 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 73 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 182 | 283 | 349 | 632 | 167 | 226 | 33 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 420 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 151 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 303 | 336 | 638 | 126 | 287 | 31 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 496 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 254 | 369 | 623 | 169 | 237 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 248 | 225 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 156 | 234 | 236 | 469 | 80 | 234 | 34 | 8 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 254 | 228 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 58 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 132 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 205 | 182 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 165 | 251 | 280 | 531 | 115 | 186 | 20 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 205 | 176 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 278 | 374 | 500 | 874 | 222 | 301 | 17 | 12 | 382 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 215 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 82 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 181 | 285 | 335 | 619 | 153 | 244 | 33 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 248 | 200 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 57 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 255 | 394 | 485 | 879 | 230 | 299 | 23 | 17 | 388 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 420 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 151 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 303 | 336 | 638 | 126 | 293 | 31 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 404 | 106 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 110 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 374 | 423 | 797 | 161 | 328 | 23 | 13 | 357 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 496 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 254 | 369 | 623 | 169 | 242 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 480 | 117 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 112 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 318 | 448 | 766 | 204 | 271 | 21 | 8 | 336 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 454 | 89 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 142 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 196 | 269 | 308 | 577 | 112 | 259 | 28 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 432 | 99 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 62 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 229 | 333 | 361 | 694 | 132 | 283 | 23 | 12 | 316 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 205 | 182 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 165 | 251 | 280 | 531 | 115 | 187 | 20 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 248 | 215 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 82 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 181 | 285 | 335 | 619 | 153 | 236 | 33 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 422 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 151 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 303 | 334 | 637 | 126 | 287 | 31 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 496 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 254 | 369 | 623 | 169 | 237 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 452 | 89 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 142 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 269 | 310 | 578 | 113 | 253 | 28 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 481 | 422 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 151 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 303 | 334 | 637 | 126 | 287 | 31 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 537 | 496 | 99 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 254 | 369 | 623 | 169 | 237 | 29 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 452 | 89 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 142 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 197 | 269 | 310 | 578 | 113 | 253 | 28 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | CWS | 0% | 612 | 557 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 44 | 162 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 274 | 347 | 621 | 138 | 261 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -19 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | CWS | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 275 | 350 | 625 | 140 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 74 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | CWS | 35% | 487 | 443 | 95 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 126 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 213 | 280 | 358 | 638 | 144 | 263 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | CWS | 46% | 533 | 482 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 135 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 284 | 366 | 650 | 149 | 265 | 25 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 52% | 560 | 506 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 43 | 141 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 219 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 151 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 293 | 84 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 54% | 578 | 523 | 115 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 145 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 289 | 372 | 660 | 151 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +13 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 54% | 582 | 526 | 116 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 146 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 220 | 289 | 371 | 660 | 150 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 294 | 85 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +13 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 54% | 576 | 520 | 114 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 145 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 287 | 366 | 653 | 147 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 83 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 53% | 562 | 509 | 110 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 43 | 144 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 284 | 359 | 643 | 143 | 265 | 26 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -13 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 52% | 550 | 498 | 107 | 21 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 142 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 213 | 280 | 351 | 631 | 139 | 263 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -15 | -0 | -4 | +2 | +12 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | CWS | 35% | 168 | 152 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 281 | 361 | 642 | 146 | 264 | 26 | 7 | 286 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | CWS | 46% | 246 | 223 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 285 | 369 | 654 | 151 | 266 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 52% | 289 | 262 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 288 | 373 | 661 | 153 | 267 | 25 | 8 | 295 | 84 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 54% | 314 | 284 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 290 | 375 | 664 | 154 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 296 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 54% | 316 | 286 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 290 | 374 | 664 | 152 | 269 | 25 | 8 | 296 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 54% | 313 | 283 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 150 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 293 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 53% | 298 | 270 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 76 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 285 | 362 | 647 | 146 | 266 | 26 | 8 | 289 | 81 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 52% | 288 | 261 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 281 | 354 | 635 | 141 | 264 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2232 | 2021 | 442 | 87 | 8 | 67 | 169 | 565 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 219 | 286 | 369 | 656 | 150 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 77 | -46 | +1 | -11 | +8 | +48 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 49 | 165 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 151 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 77 | -13 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6611 | 5965 | 1259 | 249 | 24 | 188 | 511 | 1749 | 78 | 69 | 27 | 211 | 282 | 355 | 637 | 144 | 263 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -99 | +1 | -23 | +17 | +100 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 122 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 172 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 208 | 280 | 348 | 628 | 140 | 260 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -14 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 254 PAwOBA .361 → .291 (−70)K% 17.3% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 22.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 20.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .361 → .291; ISO .163 → .142; BABIP .317 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AABirmingham Barons · 248 PAwOBA .258 → .217 (−41)K% 27.8% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 16.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.012 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .258 → .217; ISO .101 → .086; BABIP .243 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 537 PAwOBA .330 → .269 (−60)K% 20.9% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.86% | ÷0.955 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷0.949 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.21% | ÷0.942 | ×0.870 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 16.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.045 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.923 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 5.86% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .330 → .269; ISO .204 → .177; BABIP .271 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 481 PAwOBA .351 → .285 (−66)K% 22.9% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.87% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.89% | ÷0.957 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.79% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 20.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.10% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .351 → .285; ISO .161 → .136; BABIP .328 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 221 PAwOBA .386 → .273 (−113)K% 23.1% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.29% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.53% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 16.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.03% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.980 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×1.008 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.59% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 6.72% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .386 → .273; ISO .246 → .178; BABIP .294 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 27 PAwOBA .345 → .285 (−60)K% 22.2% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 13.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 3.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 20.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 11.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .285; ISO .095 → .078; BABIP .333 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 205 PAwOBA .376 → .238 (−137)K% 16.6% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.59% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.71% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | ×0.969 | ×1.008 | 12.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×1.008 | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.915 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×1.008 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.028 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.60% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 83, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .376 → .238; ISO .222 → .118; BABIP .301 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).