Warming Bernabel
1B Albuquerque Isotopes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | AA/ROKCOL | 358 | .236/.283/.367 | 8 | 2 | 47 | — | .204/.244/.307 | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 526 | .259/.293/.353 | 9 | 12 | 54 | — | .233/.260/.313 | |
| 2025 | 23 | AAACOL | 316 | .301/.361/.450 | 8 | 5 | 92 | — | .266/.313/.379 | |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBCOL | 146 | .252/.288/.410 | 4 | 1 | 84 | -1.1 | ||
| 2026 | 24 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBCOL | 16 | .258/.297/.387 | 0 | 0 | 81 | -0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBCOL | 109 | .259/.300/.396 | 3 | 2 | 84 | -0.1 | ||
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 27 | MLBCOL | 142 | .258/.300/.395 | 4 | 2 | 84 | -0.2 | ||
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 241 | 212 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 250 | 326 | 387 | 713 | 137 | 266 | 12 | 7 | 316 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 94 | 83 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 290 | 313 | 604 | 108 | 232 | 15 | 7 | 276 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 86 | 74 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 432 | 481 | 743 | 1.225 | 311 | 426 | 14 | 6 | 498 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 109 | 105 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 305 | 315 | 486 | 801 | 181 | 329 | 16 | 2 | 346 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 300 | 262 | 83 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 317 | 395 | 504 | 899 | 187 | 336 | 13 | 10 | 393 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 58 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 185 | 343 | 74 | 116 | 19 | 5 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 322 | 302 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 271 | 338 | 609 | 113 | 271 | 21 | 5 | 273 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 36 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 389 | 636 | 1.025 | 303 | 360 | 17 | 3 | 444 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 506 | 479 | 126 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 72 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 263 | 298 | 359 | 657 | 96 | 292 | 14 | 4 | 294 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 20 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 150 | 200 | 350 | 50 | 158 | 5 | 0 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 146 | 139 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 288 | 410 | 698 | 158 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 308 | 84 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -8 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 316 | 282 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 301 | 361 | 450 | 812 | 149 | 320 | 12 | 7 | 355 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 146 | 139 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 288 | 410 | 698 | 158 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 308 | 95 | -1 | -0 | -2 | -8 | +3 | -0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 241 | 216 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 157 | 229 | 231 | 460 | 74 | 168 | 15 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 94 | 85 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 176 | 247 | 271 | 518 | 94 | 204 | 21 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 86 | 77 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 338 | 370 | 584 | 955 | 247 | 312 | 20 | 2 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 109 | 107 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 252 | 259 | 393 | 652 | 140 | 292 | 22 | 1 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 300 | 271 | 75 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 55 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 277 | 338 | 435 | 773 | 159 | 305 | 18 | 7 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 322 | 306 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 79 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 237 | 294 | 531 | 95 | 251 | 25 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 36 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 424 | 730 | 182 | 273 | 25 | 3 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 506 | 485 | 113 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 89 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 233 | 260 | 313 | 574 | 80 | 267 | 18 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 146 | 139 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 245 | 281 | 403 | 684 | 158 | 282 | 17 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -3 | -0 | -2 | -8 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 316 | 290 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 266 | 313 | 379 | 692 | 114 | 289 | 16 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 241 | 216 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 157 | 229 | 231 | 460 | 74 | 174 | 15 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 241 | 212 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 250 | 326 | 387 | 713 | 137 | 266 | 12 | 7 | 316 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 247 | 299 | 407 | 706 | 160 | 272 | 21 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 180 | 157 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 26 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 312 | 379 | 516 | 895 | 204 | 323 | 14 | 7 | 382 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 467 | 431 | 116 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 269 | 317 | 418 | 734 | 148 | 308 | 19 | 5 | 315 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 467 | 421 | 121 | 27 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 67 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 287 | 347 | 458 | 806 | 171 | 307 | 14 | 7 | 353 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 358 | 339 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 88 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 244 | 307 | 550 | 103 | 256 | 25 | 3 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 358 | 335 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 74 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 283 | 367 | 650 | 131 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 291 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 504 | 118 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 93 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 234 | 262 | 313 | 575 | 79 | 271 | 18 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 526 | 499 | 129 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 73 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 259 | 293 | 353 | 645 | 94 | 286 | 14 | 3 | 289 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 462 | 429 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 256 | 300 | 378 | 678 | 121 | 288 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 462 | 421 | 120 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 64 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 285 | 338 | 437 | 775 | 152 | 308 | 14 | 6 | 340 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 241 | 219 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 155 | 229 | 228 | 457 | 73 | 168 | 15 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 180 | 166 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 241 | 299 | 398 | 696 | 157 | 256 | 21 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 467 | 434 | 116 | 25 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 267 | 317 | 415 | 731 | 147 | 302 | 19 | 5 | 315 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 358 | 337 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 88 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 244 | 309 | 552 | 104 | 253 | 25 | 3 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 502 | 118 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 93 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 235 | 262 | 315 | 577 | 80 | 267 | 18 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 462 | 432 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 255 | 300 | 375 | 675 | 120 | 287 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 502 | 118 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 93 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 235 | 262 | 315 | 577 | 80 | 267 | 18 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 462 | 432 | 110 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 255 | 300 | 375 | 675 | 120 | 287 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 10% | 380 | 357 | 88 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 68 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 246 | 286 | 363 | 649 | 117 | 281 | 18 | 4 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +1 | -0 | -7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 297 | 387 | 684 | 130 | 293 | 19 | 6 | 303 | 81 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | COL | 35% | 315 | 295 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 289 | 370 | 659 | 123 | 281 | 18 | 4 | 293 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -0 | -6 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 44% | 323 | 302 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 246 | 289 | 370 | 659 | 123 | 281 | 19 | 5 | 293 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -0 | -6 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 49% | 324 | 302 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 289 | 367 | 656 | 122 | 281 | 19 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 50% | 314 | 292 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 288 | 363 | 650 | 120 | 280 | 19 | 5 | 289 | 82 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +7 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 51% | 305 | 283 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 286 | 357 | 642 | 118 | 279 | 20 | 5 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | COL | 35% | 109 | 102 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 259 | 300 | 396 | 696 | 137 | 293 | 18 | 5 | 308 | 84 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 44% | 142 | 133 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 300 | 395 | 695 | 137 | 293 | 18 | 5 | 308 | 84 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 49% | 158 | 148 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 256 | 300 | 392 | 692 | 136 | 293 | 19 | 5 | 306 | 84 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 50% | 157 | 147 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 298 | 387 | 685 | 134 | 292 | 19 | 5 | 304 | 82 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 51% | 154 | 144 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 296 | 381 | 677 | 130 | 291 | 19 | 5 | 300 | 80 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 866 | 813 | 209 | 38 | 5 | 23 | 43 | 161 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 257 | 298 | 401 | 699 | 144 | 293 | 19 | 5 | 306 | 76 | -16 | +1 | -5 | -21 | +19 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 157 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 121 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 257 | 299 | 402 | 700 | 144 | 294 | 19 | 5 | 306 | 76 | -12 | +1 | -4 | -16 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3970 | 3701 | 883 | 162 | 9 | 82 | 176 | 745 | 50 | 78 | 29 | 239 | 282 | 354 | 636 | 115 | 275 | 19 | 4 | 280 | 76 | -37 | +2 | -8 | -39 | +41 | -4.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 144 | 27 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 122 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 238 | 281 | 350 | 631 | 112 | 275 | 19 | 4 | 280 | 76 | -13 | +1 | -3 | -14 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 316 PAwOBA .352 → .304 (−48)K% 12.3% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.34% | ÷0.945 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.28% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 22.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .352 → .304; ISO .149 → .117; BABIP .320 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 506 PAwOBA .288 → .251 (−37)K% 14.2% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.23% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.56% | ÷1.066 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.041 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×1.042 | 22.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.18% | ÷1.102 | ×0.860 | ×0.966 | ×1.042 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.966 | ×1.042 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.96% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 108, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .288 → .251; ISO .096 → .081; BABIP .292 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 322 PAwOBA .267 → .231 (−35)K% 21.1% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.12% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.66% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.09% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 18.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .267 → .231; ISO .113 → .093; BABIP .271 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rockies · 36 PAwOBA .431 → .304 (−127)K% 16.7% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.78% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 1.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 10.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.031 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 5.52% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 127, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .431 → .304; ISO .303 → .207; BABIP .360 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 300 PAwOBA .388 → .331 (−57)K% 13.0% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.22% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.030 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.52% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.030 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.947 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 87, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .388 → .331; ISO .187 → .159; BABIP .336 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Spokane Indians · 109 PAwOBA .339 → .272 (−67)K% 15.6% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.60% | ÷0.975 | ×1.350 | — | — | 21.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.83% | ÷1.022 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 1.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 21.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 7.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.316 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 2.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 108, 2B 96, 3B 91, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .339 → .272; ISO .181 → .128; BABIP .329 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 94 PAwOBA .272 → .218 (−54)K% 14.9% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.89% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.45% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.19% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.49% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 13.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.218 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 126, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .272 → .218; ISO .108 → .079; BABIP .232 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rockies · 86 PAwOBA .509 → .396 (−114)K% 14.0% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.95% | ÷0.997 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.49% | ÷1.061 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 2.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.87% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 25.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.009 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.029 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 7.39% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .509 → .396; ISO .311 → .245; BABIP .426 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .