Irvin Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Irvin Gonzalez P ACL Reds

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 150 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.7%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	15	70	17	6	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	2.2%	5.28	4.26	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	15	0	15	70	17	6	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.7%	5.8%	2.2%	5.28	4.26	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	15	0	15	70	17	6	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.6%	15.7%	1.4%	5.28	2.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	12	43	195	27	19	2	86%	3.1	9.4%	12.2%	-2.8%	1.4%	6.07	4.64	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	12	43	195	27	19	2	86%	3.1	9.4%	12.2%	-2.8%	1.4%	6.07	4.64	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	14	12	43	195	27	19	2	86%	3.1	13.8%	9.7%	4.1%	1.0%	6.07	3.77	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	16	0	25	114	28	11	1	0%	1.6	16.7%	12.1%	4.6%	1.2%	5.04	3.90	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	16	0	25	114	28	11	1	0%	1.6	16.7%	12.1%	4.6%	1.2%	5.04	3.90	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	16	0	25	114	28	11	1	0%	1.6	24.6%	9.6%	14.9%	0.9%	5.04	2.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	27	116	29	15	1	57%	3.9	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	1.2%	4.94	4.37	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	27	116	29	15	1	57%	3.9	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	1.2%	4.94	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CIN	7	4	27	116	29	15	1	57%	3.9	25.0%	12.9%	12.1%	0.9%	4.94	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	171	34	18	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	19	0	20	84	17	9	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	17	9	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.33	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	90	20	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.6%	9.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		52	16	111	495	69	64	7	31%	2.1	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	1.4%	5.45	4.35	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	29	200	895	124	115	13	31%	2.1	13.9%	12.9%	1.0%	1.4%	5.45	4.35	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irvin Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	18.7%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.71	19.9%	9.3%	41	-0.24	—	—	—
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	89
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	86
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	85
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	83
Edgar Sanchez R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	17.2%	11.0%	1.5%	.288	4.34	16.2%	3.0%	189	+0.45	2.53	257	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	83
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	83
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	81
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	81
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	282	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	81
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	81
Nick Lockhart R 2021 · 5.73 FIP	20	SW	5.73	18.3%	11.6%	4.9%	.315	4.53	19.3%	9.0%	92	-1.20	4.44	140	80
Adrián Martinez R 2017 · 4.30 FIP	20	SW	4.30	18.8%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	4.25	17.3%	7.6%	92	-0.05	2.02	526	80
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	80
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.6%	10.9%	1.11	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21