Davian Garcia
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.63
FIP5.63
K%17.3%
BB%15.5%
K-BB%1.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 96 | 412 | 87 | 58 | 9 | 91% | 4.4 | 15.8% | 16.5% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 5.37 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 96 | 412 | 87 | 58 | 9 | 91% | 4.4 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 8 | 8 | 28 | 128 | 24 | 23 | 2 | 100% | 3.5 | 15.2% | 19.8% | -4.6% | 1.9% | 3.90 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 47 | 42 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 92 | 402 | 71 | 65 | 10 | — | — | 17.8% | 16.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.3% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.63 | 5.25 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 127 | 538 | 105 | 73 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 157 | 661 | 139 | 82 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.88 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 30 | 30 | 175 | 739 | 161 | 86 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.70 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 165 | 85 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.65 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 162 | 84 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 167 | 706 | 157 | 83 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.77 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 160 | 674 | 148 | 80 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 137 | 77 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.08 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 125 | 74 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 130 | 547 | 113 | 71 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 57 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 131 | 70 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 153 | 646 | 144 | 74 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.65 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 147 | 76 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 144 | 76 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.77 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 149 | 629 | 138 | 75 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 129 | 73 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.08 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 119 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.16 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 108 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 224 | 1326 | 5599 | 1211 | 676 | 178 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +13.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 102 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 28 | 124 | 540 | 84 | 93 | 14 | 93% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 17.3% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 5.37 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 45 | 200 | 873 | 137 | 151 | 22 | 93% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 17.3% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 3.57 | 5.37 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Davian Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.63 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.89 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 459 | -0.74 | — | — | — |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 91 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 90 |
| Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.92 | 16.4% | 14.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 4.97 | 17.8% | -8.8% | 40 | +0.05 | 4.92 | 156 | 89 |
| Jacob Watters R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.70 | 18.3% | 17.1% | 1.8% | .319 | 4.54 | 17.0% | 5.1% | 81 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 165 | 89 |
| Hayden Merda R 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 88 |
| Michael YaSenka R 2027 · 5.84 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.84 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .288 | 5.74 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | -0.10 | 5.74 | 154 | 88 |
| Max Bain R 2027 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.37 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.8% | .291 | 6.65 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.28 | 5.16 | 174 | 87 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.99 | 16.4% | 14.5% | 4.4% | .282 | 4.74 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 184 | -1.25 | 3.40 | 322 | 87 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 87 |
| Steven Brooks R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.61 | 16.6% | 17.9% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.80 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 40 | -0.81 | 4.80 | 103 | 86 |
| Elijah Dale R 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.70 | 16.7% | 13.6% | 2.3% | .239 | 6.40 | 18.4% | -1.6% | 31 | +1.70 | 4.70 | 140 | 86 |
| Hunter Parks R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 18.9% | 19.3% | 2.3% | .265 | 4.94 | 19.9% | 3.0% | 116 | -0.28 | 3.51 | 278 | 86 |
| Jordan Sheffield R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.09 | 16.8% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .320 | 5.62 | 22.6% | 4.7% | 89 | +0.53 | 3.79 | 248 | 85 |
| Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 85 |
| Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.49 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | .293 | 5.36 | 14.8% | -1.7% | 88 | -0.13 | 5.03 | 185 | 85 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 14.9% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.02 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 128 | +0.23 | 4.43 | 225 | 84 |
| Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.79 | 15.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | .275 | 5.18 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 191 | +0.39 | 4.01 | 287 | 84 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 84 |
| Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.63 | 20.0% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.9% | 5.2% | 391 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 498 | 84 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 149 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 1.22 | 4.97 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |