Davian Garcia — OGILVIE

Davian Garcia P Harrisburg Senators

+0.3 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2030

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%8.3%

IP96

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	15.8%	16.5%	2.8%	3.47	5.39	-0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	2	2	8	37	7	7	0	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	WSH	17	17	96	405	82	49	12	20.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	+0.4
2026 Total	22	MLB	WSH	—	—	104	442	89	56	12	20.2%	12.6%	2.7%	4.72	4.55	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	WSH	22	22	120	505	108	54	15	21.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.65	+0.9
2028	24	MLB	WSH	25	25	139	585	128	58	17	21.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.49	+1.3
2029	25	MLB	WSH	28	28	152	643	143	61	19	22.3%	9.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+1.6
2030	26	MLB	WSH	29	29	159	673	151	63	20	22.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.40	4.37	+1.7
2031	27	MLB	WSH	29	29	162	684	154	64	20	22.5%	9.4%	2.9%	4.38	4.37	+1.7
2032	28	MLB	WSH	29	29	162	683	153	64	20	22.5%	9.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.40	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	WSH	29	29	158	668	149	63	20	22.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+1.5
2034	30	MLB	WSH	28	28	153	648	143	62	20	22.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	WSH	27	27	148	625	137	61	20	21.9%	9.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.58	+1.2
2036	32	MLB	WSH	26	26	142	600	130	59	19	21.6%	9.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.67	+1.0
2037	33	MLB	WSH	25	25	136	573	122	58	19	21.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.8
2038	34	MLB	WSH	23	23	129	544	114	56	19	21.0%	10.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.88	+0.6
2039	35	MLB	WSH	22	22	122	513	106	54	18	20.6%	10.5%	3.5%	4.92	5.00	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	22	104	449	72	75	11	16.0%	16.7%	2.6%	3.38	5.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—			46	42	200	863	138	144	21	16.0%	16.7%	2.6%	3.38	5.26	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davian Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	20.3%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.50	21.9%	11.9%	410	-0.43	—	—	—
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	94
CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	93
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	93
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	93
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	92
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	92
Nolan DeVos R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	91
Corey Black R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	91
Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	90
Dinelson Lamet R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	90
Will Watson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	21.8%	13.4%	2.1%	.275	4.39	15.6%	5.0%	11	+0.26	4.13	132	90
Cade Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP-	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	4.20	20.3%	6.5%	33	+0.34	3.86	118	89
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	89
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP-	5.24	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.20	24.4%	13.6%	124	-1.04	4.20	227	89
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	89
Mason Hickman R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP-	4.73	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.45	24.0%	10.8%	181	+0.72	4.73	300	89
Nick Sinacola R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	89
Max Bain R 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	89
Jurrangelo Cijntje S 2026 · 5.16 FIP	22	SP-	5.16	20.5%	12.6%	4.0%	.242	7.61	20.9%	4.9%	13	+2.45	5.16	122	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.6	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.7	$16M	+$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.6	$15M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.5	$15M	+$10M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.4	$14M	+$8M
Totals		$17M		$89M	+$72M