Davian Garcia — OGILVIE

Davian Garcia P Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%17.3%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%0.6%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	15.8%	16.5%	-0.7%	2.8%	3.47	5.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	15.8%	16.5%	-0.7%	2.8%	3.47	5.38	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	21.1%	14.1%	7.0%	2.2%	3.47	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	15.2%	19.8%	-4.6%	1.9%	3.90	5.35	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	15.2%	19.8%	-4.6%	1.9%	3.90	5.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	WSH	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	18.8%	18.0%	0.8%	1.6%	3.90	4.65	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	7	30	5	5	1	100%	7.0	17.3%	16.7%	0.6%	3.0%	5.78	5.78	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	35	158	29	28	3	—	—	18.5%	17.7%	0.7%	1.8%	4.28	5.44	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	127	538	105	78	16	100%	5.3	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	2.9%	5.41	5.28	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	157	661	139	86	19	100%	5.6	21.0%	13.0%	8.0%	2.9%	5.11	4.96	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	175	739	161	90	21	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.77	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	175	739	165	89	22	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	162	88	22	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	167	706	157	86	22	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	160	674	148	84	22	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	150	634	137	81	22	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.7%	8.8%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	64	270	53	39	8	100%	5.3	19.6%	14.5%	5.1%	2.9%	5.41	5.28	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	110	464	97	60	14	100%	5.5	21.0%	13.0%	8.0%	2.9%	5.11	4.96	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	142	600	131	73	17	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.89	4.77	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	153	646	144	77	19	100%	5.9	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	2.9%	4.78	4.71	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	147	79	19	100%	6.0	22.3%	12.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.75	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	154	650	144	79	20	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.2%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	+0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	149	629	138	78	20	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	3.2%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	141	595	129	76	20	100%	5.9	21.6%	12.7%	8.8%	3.4%	5.05	5.14	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	181	1069	4513	983	563	138	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.51	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	105	26	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.92	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		30	28	124	540	84	93	14	93%	4.1	15.6%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.6%	3.57	5.37	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	873	137	151	22	93%	4.1	15.6%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.6%	3.57	5.37	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davian Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	17.3%	16.7%	3.0%	—	4.98	20.9%	7.8%	459	-0.80	—	—	—
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	92
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	91
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	90
Garrett Cave R 2018 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	88
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	88
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	87
Chad Dallas R 2022 · 5.87 FIP	22	SP	5.87	16.4%	14.5%	4.2%	.282	4.71	19.8%	10.2%	184	-1.16	3.47	340	87
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	86
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	85
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	85
Jordan Sheffield R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP	5.07	16.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.320	5.60	22.6%	4.7%	89	+0.53	3.90	248	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	82
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	82
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	82
Raffi Vizcaíno R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	22	SP	6.03	18.8%	17.2%	4.3%	.295	4.27	21.3%	6.7%	103	-1.76	3.06	439	81
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	81
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	81
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	153	21.4%	12.8%	1.17	5.00
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48