Davian Garcia

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1142ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	22	20	96	3.47	4.32	21.1%	14.1%	—	K 15.8% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.38
2026	22	AAWSH	8	8	28	3.90	4.80	18.8%	18.0%	—	K 15.2% · BB 19.8% · FIP 5.35
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	1	1	2	5.85	5.85	17.1%	17.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBWSH	7	7	39	5.48	5.35	19.2%	15.3%	0.0
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBWSH	10	10	61	5.18	5.04	20.5%	13.7%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJ.P. Massey (age 23) · Hayden Merda (age 23) · Max Bain (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%17.1%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%-0.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	15.8%	16.5%	-0.7%	2.8%	3.47	5.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	15.8%	16.5%	-0.7%	2.8%	3.47	5.38	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	96	412	87	58	9	91%	4.4	21.1%	14.1%	7.0%	2.2%	3.47	4.32	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	15.2%	19.8%	-4.6%	1.9%	3.90	5.35	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	15.2%	19.8%	-4.6%	1.9%	3.90	5.35	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	8	8	28	128	24	23	2	100%	3.5	18.8%	18.0%	0.8%	1.6%	3.90	4.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	17.1%	17.7%	-0.6%	2.9%	5.85	5.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	90	380	73	58	11	100%	5.6	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	5.35	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	382	78	52	11	100%	6.0	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	2.8%	5.18	5.04	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	404	86	54	11	100%	6.0	21.3%	13.4%	7.9%	2.8%	5.02	4.94	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	92	390	83	52	11	100%	6.2	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.96	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	371	79	50	11	100%	5.9	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.01	5.04	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	346	72	47	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.7%	7.3%	3.1%	5.11	5.17	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	75	316	65	44	11	100%	6.2	20.6%	14.0%	6.6%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	39	165	32	25	5	100%	5.6	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	5.35	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	61	258	53	35	7	100%	6.1	20.5%	13.7%	6.8%	2.8%	5.18	5.04	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	76	321	68	43	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	13.4%	7.9%	2.8%	5.02	4.94	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	79	334	71	44	10	100%	6.1	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.96	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	70	44	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	3.0%	5.01	5.04	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	65	43	10	100%	6.2	20.9%	13.7%	7.3%	3.1%	5.11	5.17	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	69	291	60	41	10	100%	5.8	20.6%	14.0%	6.6%	3.3%	5.25	5.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	477	2013	420	276	60	100%	6.0	20.9%	13.7%	7.1%	3.0%	5.12	4.72	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	116	25	100%	5.9	20.9%	13.7%	7.1%	3.0%	5.12	4.72	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		30	28	124	540	84	93	14	93%	4.1	15.6%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.6%	3.57	5.37	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	873	137	151	22	93%	4.1	15.6%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.6%	3.57	5.37	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 28 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.35 (+0.70)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.810	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.97%	—	×1.100	19.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 70 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.13 (+1.08)K% 22.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.740	16.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.03%	—	×1.180	17.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.040	×1.300	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 26 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.95 (+1.07)K% 17.5% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.46%	—	×0.770	13.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×1.150	13.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷0.967	×1.250	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davian Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.11	20.4%	6.3%	276	-0.74	—	—	—
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	90
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	86
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	84
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	82
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	82
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	81
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	81
M.D. Johnson R 2021 · 5.30 FIP	24	SP	5.30	19.1%	17.3%	2.9%	.201	4.63	17.9%	7.9%	293	-0.67	3.52	395	80
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	79
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79
Matthew Thompson R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP	5.29	17.7%	16.9%	2.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	411	79
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	79
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	79
Osman Gutierrez R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	22	SP	5.88	13.9%	16.2%	3.5%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	189	78
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	78
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	78
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	20.3%	14.3%	1.14	5.23
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Vic Albury ('73-'76, 0 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.1%*	13.2%*	1.31*	4.60*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64