JD Dix — OGILVIE

JD DixSS Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 S/R 6'2" / 180 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION332 act + 221 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .296 / .304

PA221

HR3

SB12

K%28

BB%9

BABIP286

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$13M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$13M	+$12M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$12M	+$10M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$11M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$27M		$71M	+$58M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	408	358	76	14	5	2	40	125	6	28	8	212	302	296	598	84	315	31	10	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	408	340	101	19	6	2	58	85	6	28	8	297	408	406	814	109	385	21	14	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	ARI	—	332	288	61	12	1	8	30	102	8	27	4	212	304	344	647	132	291	31	9	286	77	-9	+4	+0	+4	+9	0.8
YTD	20	A	ARI	—	332	274	71	15	2	9	44	75	8	27	4	259	377	427	804	168	320	23	13	357	131	+12	+4	+0	+4	+9	2.9
ROS	20	A	ARI	0%	221	194	40	8	1	3	21	63	4	12	2	206	296	304	600	98	289	28	9	284	75	-6	+2	-1	+2	+6	0.3
ROS	20	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		292	—	—	272	67	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	ARI	—	332	289	61	12	1	8	30	102	8	27	4	211	304	343	646	131	290	31	9	286	77	-9	+4	+0	+4	+9	0.8
TOT	20	A	ARI	—	553	482	101	20	2	11	51	165	12	39	6	209	301	328	628	118	289	30	9	285	76	-15	+5	-1	+6	+16	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	581	512	111	21	4	11	55	162	9	20	4	217	304	338	642	121	291	28	9	291	81	-12	+2	-3	+6	+16	1.0
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	609	536	120	23	4	14	58	164	10	19	4	224	311	360	671	136	292	27	10	302	89	-7	+2	-3	+7	+17	1.6
2029	23	MLB	ARI	54%	624	549	126	24	4	16	60	165	10	18	3	230	317	375	692	146	293	26	10	308	94	-4	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.0
2030	24	MLB	ARI	55%	623	548	127	24	4	17	60	163	10	17	3	232	319	383	702	151	294	26	10	313	98	-2	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.2
2031	25	MLB	ARI	56%	626	550	128	24	4	17	61	163	10	16	3	233	320	384	704	151	294	26	10	315	99	-1	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.3
2032	26	MLB	ARI	56%	631	554	129	24	4	18	62	164	10	16	3	233	321	388	709	155	294	26	10	316	100	+0	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.4
2033	27	MLB	ARI	55%	629	552	129	24	4	18	62	164	10	16	3	234	322	389	712	156	294	26	10	316	100	+0	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.4
2034	28	MLB	ARI	55%	623	546	125	23	4	17	62	163	10	15	3	229	319	379	698	150	294	26	10	315	99	-0	+2	-4	+7	+18	2.2
2035	29	MLB	ARI	53%	613	537	124	23	4	17	61	162	10	14	3	231	321	384	704	153	293	26	10	314	98	-1	+2	-4	+7	+17	2.0
2036	30	MLB	ARI	53%	602	528	120	22	4	16	60	160	9	13	3	227	317	375	692	148	292	27	10	311	96	-3	+1	-5	+6	+17	1.8
2037	31	MLB	ARI	57%	587	514	115	21	3	15	59	158	9	12	2	224	314	364	678	140	290	27	10	307	93	-4	+2	-6	+6	+17	1.5
2038	32	MLB	ARI	59%	568	497	109	20	3	14	57	155	9	11	2	219	311	356	667	137	287	27	10	302	89	-7	+1	-6	+6	+16	1.1
2039	33	MLB	ARI	61%	539	472	102	18	3	13	54	150	8	10	2	216	307	350	657	133	283	28	10	295	84	-10	+1	-7	+6	+15	0.6
2040	34	MLB	ARI	57%	491	432	90	15	3	11	49	140	7	8	2	208	299	333	633	125	277	29	10	287	78	-12	+1	-7	+5	+14	0.0
2041	35	MLB	ARI	52%	435	383	76	12	2	9	43	127	6	7	1	198	289	311	600	112	271	29	10	278	71	-14	+1	-8	+5	+12	-0.4
2042	36	MLB	ARI	43%	374	330	64	10	2	7	36	112	5	5	1	194	283	300	583	106	265	30	10	268	63	-16	+1	-8	+4	+11	-0.9
2027	21	MLB	ARI	34%	200	176	38	7	1	4	19	56	3	7	1	216	303	335	638	119	293	28	10	282	74	-6	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.2
2028	22	MLB	ARI	48%	295	260	59	11	2	7	28	80	5	9	2	227	314	365	679	138	295	27	9	293	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.5
2029	23	MLB	ARI	54%	338	298	69	13	2	9	32	89	5	10	2	232	316	379	696	148	296	26	9	300	87	-5	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2030	24	MLB	ARI	55%	345	304	70	13	2	9	33	90	5	9	2	230	316	375	691	145	296	26	10	304	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.9
2031	25	MLB	ARI	56%	350	308	72	14	2	10	34	91	5	9	2	234	320	390	709	156	296	26	10	306	92	-3	+1	-2	+4	+10	1.0
2032	26	MLB	ARI	56%	355	311	73	14	2	10	35	92	6	9	2	235	324	389	713	154	296	26	10	307	93	-3	+1	-2	+4	+10	1.1
2033	27	MLB	ARI	55%	348	306	71	13	2	10	34	91	5	9	2	232	319	386	704	154	296	26	10	307	93	-3	+1	-2	+4	+10	1.0
2034	28	MLB	ARI	55%	342	300	70	13	2	10	34	90	5	8	2	233	322	390	712	157	296	26	10	306	93	-3	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.9
2035	29	MLB	ARI	53%	327	286	66	12	2	9	33	86	5	7	1	231	321	381	702	150	295	26	10	305	91	-3	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.8
2036	30	MLB	ARI	53%	317	277	64	12	2	9	32	84	5	7	1	231	322	386	708	155	294	26	10	302	89	-4	+1	-3	+3	+9	0.7
2037	31	MLB	ARI	57%	332	291	66	12	2	9	33	89	5	7	1	227	316	375	691	148	292	27	10	299	87	-5	+1	-3	+4	+9	0.6
2038	32	MLB	ARI	59%	336	294	65	12	2	8	34	92	5	6	1	221	312	357	669	136	289	27	10	293	83	-7	+1	-4	+4	+10	0.4
2039	33	MLB	ARI	61%	329	288	63	11	2	8	33	92	5	6	1	219	310	354	664	135	285	28	10	287	78	-8	+1	-4	+4	+9	0.1
2040	34	MLB	ARI	57%	277	244	52	9	2	6	27	79	4	5	1	213	302	340	642	127	280	29	10	279	72	-9	+1	-4	+3	+8	-0.2
2041	35	MLB	ARI	52%	226	199	41	7	1	5	22	66	3	4	1	206	295	327	621	121	273	29	10	269	64	-9	+0	-4	+2	+6	-0.4
2042	36	MLB	ARI	43%	161	142	27	4	1	3	16	48	2	2	0	190	281	296	577	106	267	30	10	259	57	-8	+0	-4	+2	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4878	4285	966	177	29	126	479	1315	73	114	22	225	314	368	682	143	293	27	10	296	85	-84	+14	-41	+52	+138	8.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	129	24	4	17	64	175	10	15	3	226	315	371	686	145	292	27	10	296	85	-11	+2	-5	+7	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	9784	8592	1911	350	62	235	960	2660	152	257	52	222	312	360	671	137	292	27	10	302	89	-118	+31	-78	+105	+277	22.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	127	23	4	16	64	177	10	17	3	222	312	361	672	138	291	27	10	302	89	-8	+2	-5	+7	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	230	188	49	7	2	1	38	51	3	19	4	261	393	335	728	74	350	22	17	340	119	+5	+2	—	—	+7	1.4
2025	19	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	178	152	52	12	4	1	20	34	3	9	4	342	429	493	922	151	425	19	11	403	167	+13	+0	—	—	+5	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,199	126	124	224	309	362	+51	+0	15.2	12.5
	/162	664	16	16	224	309	362	+6.5	+0.0	1.9	pk7: 10
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JD Dix (OGILVIE)	20	31→51	35→49	58→59	58	209/301/328	118	289	11	39	30%	9%	76	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	55	219/317/294	75	290	3	19	23%	11%	77	+0.1	188/270/271	83	290	6	10	34%	10%	50	-1.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
●Luis Rengifo 2017 · A	20	45→55	37→55	56→55	45	212/270/294	82	276	4	21	24%	6%	56	-1.3	227/287/340	113	286	9	20	22%	7%	75	-0.0	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Ronny Simon 2021 · A	21	46→54	41→50	52→55	46	218/278/329	112	273	6	13	22%	7%	68	-0.5	210/261/359	149	274	18	19	29%	6%	69	-0.4	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	42→49	39→45	56→50	54	198/298/287	89	252	5	22	22%	10%	67	-0.5	215/282/333	118	275	11	17	25%	7%	72	-0.2	214/272/339	125	267	13	15	24%	6%	65	-0.5
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
●Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	42→55	56→55	46	201/275/316	115	288	8	13	31%	9%	63	-0.8	212/280/338	126	319	10	16	34%	8%	72	-0.2	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
★Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	213/301/277	64	275	3	17	22%	11%	65	-0.7	215/298/294	79	281	4	15	23%	9%	69	-0.4	259/359/388	129	285	11	20	12%	12%	115	+2.3
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	47→49	41→50	53→45	48	227/287/331	103	273	8	13	20%	7%	72	-0.2	229/306/358	129	287	12	10	23%	9%	89	+0.9	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	42	41→45	55→50	50	202/289/303	101	287	8	16	30%	10%	67	-0.5	220/278/339	119	309	13	11	31%	7%	71	-0.3	222/264/350	128	302	16	8	31%	5%	64	-0.4
●Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	45→54	40→45	53→50	52	214/297/310	95	272	8	10	23%	10%	72	-0.2	225/295/354	129	272	12	8	21%	8%	82	+0.5	238/307/358	119	303	12	6	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	41→43	41→45	51→55	54	194/303/299	105	291	7	16	32%	13%	72	-0.2	205/300/298	93	293	6	20	29%	11%	70	-0.3	210/285/315	105	268	10	21	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	43	214/270/306	92	286	8	15	27%	7%	59	-1.1	203/268/295	92	290	8	17	31%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	46→50	41→40	56→60	46	222/287/330	108	287	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	217/282/308	91	288	7	26	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/276/294	89	271	8	32	26%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Ricardo Ferreira 2015 · A	20	48	36→40	55→60	51	214/312/283	70	324	3	21	31%	11%	72	-0.2	248/322/326	78	345	4	22	26%	9%	85	+0.7	268/341/345	77	366	3	29	25%	9%	95	+0.6
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	45→49	41→60	55→50	47	217/288/313	96	267	8	16	21%	7%	69	-0.4	215/262/314	99	286	8	16	27%	5%	57	-1.2	261/322/478	218	301	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7