Drew Davies

1B Daytona Tortugas
Age 21 L/R 6'3" / 185 lbs A HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROK/INTL2 orgs156.206/.355/.2942134—.138/.254/.183
202519A/ROK/INTL2 orgs456.256/.381/.3605876—.189/.297/.260
202620ACIN405.278/.423/.4157593—.234/.347/.344
2027PROJMLE21MLBCIN515.181/.292/.2666664-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBCIN125.190/.300/.2932171-0.4
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBCIN198.196/.304/.3094276-0.5
Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Whiff%75
BB%74
Chase%74
Z-Con%67
K%64
Speed43
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 6.2, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 81%
CompsKier Meredith (age 22) · Imanol Vargas (age 21) · Jaden Rudd (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .290 / .264
PA210
HR3
K%28
BB%12
ISO85
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202418 ROKACL Reds — 12798 21402 26352 10 214389316705 102306 2820 335 38 — — — — — —
202418 INTLAdelaide Giants — 2928 5100 1110 00 179207214421 36294 383 193 17 — — — — — —
202519 ADaytona Tortugas — 184147 35602 33400 63 238378320698 82306 2218 322 63 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Reds — 127101 26522 23352 21 257405406811 149375 2818 368 53 — — — — — —
202519 INTLAdelaide Giants — 145127 35901 17351 01 276366370736 94374 2412 337 114 — — — — — —
202620 ADaytona Tortugas — 405316 881827 698910 54 278423415837 136355 2217 374 93 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202418 ROK MLEACL Reds — 127109 15201 15512 10 138254183437 46246 4012 225 38 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 184156 31402 24540 63 199306263568 64272 2913 261 63 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Reds — 127109 19411 15502 21 174286257543 83294 3912 246 53 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 405337 791526 4812110 54 234347344691 110316 3012 305 93 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 156134 20302 19632 10 149265216481 67257 4012 225 38 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAW2 teams — 156126 26502 27462 10 206355294648 87304 2917 308 38 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE3 teams — 456390 731224 581523 85 187297259556 72291 3313 255 59 — — — — — —
202519 A RAW3 teams — 456375 962025 731103 85 256381360741 104346 2416 340 59 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 405337 791526 4812110 54 234347344691 110335 3012 305 93 — — — — — —
202620 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 405316 881827 698910 54 278423415837 136355 2217 374 93 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 156134 20302 19632 10 149265216481 67246 4012 225 38 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE3 teams — 456392 731224 581523 85 186297258555 71281 3313 255 59 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 405344 791526 4812110 54 230347337684 108316 3012 305 93 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLE2 teams — 156134 20302 19632 10 149265216481 67246 4012 225 38 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE3 teams — 456392 731224 581523 85 186297258555 71281 3313 255 59 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 405344 791526 4812110 54 230347337684 108316 3012 305 93 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECIN 0% 515441 801526 621457 63 181292266558 85250 2812 263 64 -22 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECIN 34% 364312 591116 441005 42 189298287586 99254 2712 273 71 -13 +0 +0 -7 +8 -1.1
202923 MLB MLECIN 48% 408351 681227 481106 52 194302302605 108256 2712 280 76 -12 +0 +0 -7 +9 -1.0
203024 MLB MLECIN 53% 455392 781429 541206 63 199305313618 114259 2612 285 79 -11 +0 +0 -8 +10 -1.0
203125 MLB MLECIN 55% 505434 8716210 591327 63 202307319626 118261 2612 288 81 -12 +0 +0 -9 +11 -1.0
203226 MLB MLECIN 56% 517445 9117211 601347 63 204307324631 120262 2612 289 82 -11 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.9
203327 MLB MLECIN 55% 518446 9117211 601367 53 203306321627 118262 2612 288 81 -12 -0 +0 -9 +11 -1.0
202822 MLB CTXCIN 34% 125107 20402 15342 11 190300293593 103254 2712 276 71 -4 -0 +0 -2 +3 -0.4
202923 MLB CTXCIN 48% 198169 34614 24533 21 196304309613 112257 2712 283 76 -6 +0 +0 -4 +4 -0.5
203024 MLB CTXCIN 53% 240207 41715 28643 31 201307320626 119260 2712 288 79 -6 +0 +0 -4 +5 -0.5
203125 MLB CTXCIN 55% 276238 49916 32724 32 204308327635 123262 2612 291 81 -6 -0 +0 -5 +6 -0.6
203226 MLB CTXCIN 56% 288249 51917 33754 32 206309331640 125263 2611 293 82 -6 -0 +0 -5 +6 -0.5
203327 MLB CTXCIN 55% 285246 50916 33754 32 205308328636 123263 2612 291 81 -6 -0 +0 -5 +6 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14121216 24544530 16537320 159 201307320627 118263 2612 288 75 -35 -1 +0 -25 +31 -3.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650560 11220214 761729 74 200305318623 118260 2612 288 75 -16 -0 +0 -12 +14 -1.4
Career— MLE — 39943421 6791231669 475112756 4826 198306304610 106271 2812 280 75 -79 +0 +0 -53 +65 -6.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650557 11120311 771839 84 199306305612 106272 2812 280 75 -17 +0 +0 -12 +14 -1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 405 PAwOBA .373 → .305 (−68)K% 22.0% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.98%÷1.000×1.360——29.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.04%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01511.93%
HBP% /PA2.47%—×0.780—×1.0151.95%
Singles /BIP26.87%÷1.000×0.920×0.979×1.01524.57%
Doubles /BIP7.93%÷1.000×0.830×0.979×1.0156.54%
Triples /BIP0.88%÷1.000×0.910×0.979×1.0150.80%
Home runs /BIP3.08%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0152.50%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .373 → .305; ISO .136 → .113; BABIP .355 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 184 PAwOBA .320 → .261 (−59)K% 21.7% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.74%÷1.008×1.360——29.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.93%÷0.956×0.690—×1.03013.33%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0300.00%
Singles /BIP25.23%÷0.980×0.920×0.958×1.03023.38%
Doubles /BIP5.61%÷1.088×0.830×0.958×1.0304.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×0.958×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP1.87%÷1.032×0.800—×1.0301.49%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .320 → .261; ISO .082 → .062; BABIP .306 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Reds · 127 PAwOBA .359 → .246 (−113)K% 27.6% → 39.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.56%÷1.010×1.440——39.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.11%÷0.931×0.620—×0.99512.00%
HBP% /PA1.57%—×0.720—×0.9951.13%
Singles /BIP25.76%÷1.039×0.820×1.039×0.99521.01%
Doubles /BIP7.58%÷0.963×0.720×1.039×0.9955.85%
Triples /BIP3.03%÷1.150×0.720×1.039×0.9951.96%
Home runs /BIP3.03%÷1.252×0.780—×0.9951.88%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .359 → .246; ISO .149 → .092; BABIP .375 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Reds · 127 PAwOBA .327 → .225 (−102)K% 27.6% → 40.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.56%÷0.989×1.440——40.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.69%÷1.005×0.620—×1.00812.23%
HBP% /PA1.57%—×0.720—×1.0081.14%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷0.970×0.820×1.006×1.00820.39%
Doubles /BIP6.35%÷1.144×0.720×1.006×1.0084.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.144×0.720×1.006×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP3.17%÷1.063×0.780—×1.0082.35%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 129, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .327 → .225; ISO .102 → .067; BABIP .306 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .