Jake Fox
OF Akron RubberDucks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+CLE | 408 | .218/.316/.333 | 7 | 9 | 44 | — | .179/.254/.266 |
| 2025 | 22 | AACLE | 330 | .197/.325/.310 | 3 | 12 | 55 | — | .178/.279/.283 |
| 2026 | 23 | AACLE | 169 | .344/.473/.481 | 1 | 6 | 151 | — | .340/.436/.468 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCLE | 2 | .206/.301/.296 | 0 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 51 | .211/.305/.312 | 1 | 1 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBCLE | 99 | .214/.307/.322 | 1 | 2 | 82 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Indians | — | 49 | 42 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 405 | 479 | 429 | 908 | 24 | 500 | 18 | 12 | 407 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 470 | 380 | 94 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 74 | 90 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 247 | 385 | 374 | 759 | 126 | 307 | 19 | 16 | 347 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 402 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 103 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 256 | 332 | 398 | 730 | 142 | 322 | 23 | 10 | 325 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 354 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 86 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 218 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 116 | 265 | 21 | 12 | 297 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 274 | 54 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 73 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 197 | 325 | 310 | 635 | 113 | 252 | 22 | 16 | 293 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 131 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 344 | 473 | 481 | 954 | 137 | 404 | 14 | 20 | 417 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 49 | 44 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 341 | 396 | 364 | 759 | 23 | 436 | 27 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 470 | 399 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 125 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 206 | 318 | 303 | 622 | 98 | 275 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 414 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 127 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 215 | 276 | 326 | 602 | 111 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 368 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 266 | 521 | 87 | 231 | 26 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 286 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 94 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 178 | 279 | 283 | 562 | 105 | 240 | 28 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 141 | 48 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 340 | 436 | 468 | 904 | 128 | 398 | 17 | 14 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 49 | 44 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 341 | 396 | 364 | 759 | 23 | 469 | 27 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Indians | — | 49 | 42 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 405 | 479 | 429 | 908 | 24 | 500 | 18 | 12 | 407 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 470 | 399 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 125 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 206 | 318 | 303 | 622 | 98 | 284 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 470 | 380 | 94 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 74 | 90 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 247 | 385 | 374 | 759 | 126 | 307 | 19 | 16 | 347 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 414 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 127 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 215 | 276 | 326 | 602 | 111 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 402 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 103 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 256 | 332 | 398 | 730 | 142 | 322 | 23 | 10 | 325 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 368 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 266 | 521 | 87 | 236 | 26 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 354 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 86 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 218 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 116 | 265 | 21 | 12 | 297 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 286 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 94 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 178 | 279 | 283 | 562 | 105 | 249 | 28 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 274 | 54 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 73 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 197 | 325 | 310 | 635 | 113 | 252 | 22 | 16 | 293 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 141 | 48 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 340 | 436 | 468 | 904 | 128 | 412 | 17 | 14 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 131 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 344 | 473 | 481 | 954 | 137 | 404 | 14 | 20 | 417 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Indians | — | 49 | 45 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 333 | 396 | 356 | 751 | 22 | 436 | 27 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 470 | 401 | 82 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 125 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 204 | 318 | 302 | 620 | 97 | 275 | 27 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 453 | 415 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 127 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 214 | 276 | 325 | 601 | 111 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 368 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 266 | 521 | 87 | 231 | 26 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 287 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 94 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 178 | 279 | 282 | 561 | 105 | 240 | 28 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 143 | 48 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 336 | 436 | 462 | 898 | 126 | 398 | 17 | 14 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 408 | 368 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 266 | 521 | 87 | 231 | 26 | 8 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 330 | 287 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 94 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 178 | 279 | 282 | 561 | 105 | 240 | 28 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 169 | 143 | 48 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 336 | 436 | 462 | 898 | 126 | 398 | 17 | 14 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 2% | 219 | 191 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 302 | 300 | 602 | 93 | 269 | 23 | 11 | 277 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 301 | 296 | 597 | 90 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 74 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 31% | 164 | 144 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 306 | 316 | 622 | 104 | 271 | 23 | 12 | 285 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 45% | 223 | 195 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 214 | 308 | 326 | 634 | 112 | 272 | 23 | 11 | 289 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 49% | 254 | 222 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 215 | 307 | 328 | 635 | 113 | 273 | 23 | 11 | 289 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 52% | 275 | 241 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 64 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 215 | 306 | 327 | 633 | 112 | 273 | 23 | 11 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 31% | 51 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 305 | 312 | 617 | 101 | 270 | 24 | 12 | 283 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 45% | 99 | 88 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 307 | 322 | 629 | 109 | 271 | 23 | 11 | 287 | 82 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 49% | 125 | 110 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 307 | 324 | 631 | 110 | 272 | 23 | 11 | 288 | 82 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 52% | 142 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 305 | 324 | 629 | 110 | 272 | 23 | 11 | 287 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 417 | 367 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 97 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 213 | 304 | 319 | 622 | 106 | 271 | 23 | 11 | 287 | 74 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +9 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 572 | 121 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 73 | 151 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 212 | 303 | 316 | 619 | 105 | 270 | 23 | 11 | 287 | 74 | -15 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2897 | 2543 | 543 | 110 | 28 | 33 | 307 | 731 | 18 | 85 | 23 | 214 | 303 | 318 | 620 | 104 | 283 | 25 | 11 | 277 | 74 | -24 | +1 | -1 | -6 | +22 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 121 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 164 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 212 | 302 | 313 | 615 | 102 | 281 | 25 | 11 | 277 | 74 | -15 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 169 PAwOBA .415 → .391 (−24)K% 14.2% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.20% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 14.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 30.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 2.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .415 → .391; ISO .137 → .136; BABIP .404 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 330 PAwOBA .290 → .250 (−40)K% 22.1% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.76% | ÷0.953 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 12.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.41% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.960 | ×1.042 | 16.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.986 | ×0.860 | ×0.960 | ×1.042 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | ×0.960 | ×1.042 | 3.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 90, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .290 → .250; ISO .113 → .103; BABIP .252 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 408 PAwOBA .291 → .233 (−58)K% 21.1% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.08% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.40% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .291 → .233; ISO .116 → .086; BABIP .265 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Lake County Captains · 453 PAwOBA .319 → .264 (−55)K% 22.7% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.74% | ÷1.028 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷0.971 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 6.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.10% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 102, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .264; ISO .142 → .113; BABIP .322 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALynchburg Hillcats · 470 PAwOBA .342 → .281 (−62)K% 19.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.74% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 11.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 19.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.015 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .281; ISO .126 → .103; BABIP .307 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Indians · 49 PAwOBA .406 → .322 (−83)K% 18.4% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.37% | ÷0.978 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.050 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 48.48% | ÷0.948 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 42.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.065 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.488 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 98, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .406 → .322; ISO .024 → .016; BABIP .500 → .436. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).