RJ Schreck

LF Buffalo Bisons
Age 27 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2049MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AA/A+2 orgs492.251/.391/.462171380—.198/.303/.346
202525AAA/AA/ATOR419.250/.396/.46418896—.208/.324/.384
202626AAA/ATOR278.221/.375/.41010475—.177/.292/.307
2027PROJ10% MLB27MLBTOR16.210/.318/.36900960.0
2028PROJ31% MLB28MLBTOR61.210/.316/.36521940.0
Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$3M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%93
Chase%83
Whiff%82
K%69
Z-Con%60
Speed54
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%
CompsStephen Scott (age 27) · Billy McKinney (age 27) · Jake Goebbert (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†96
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .318 / .369
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP252
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.1M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.1M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202323 AModesto Nuts — 10290 24701 10111 10 267347378724 111291 1110 326 71 — — — — — —
202424 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 148122 28925 20345 62 230361459820 230274 2314 363 74 — — — — — —
202424 A+Everett AquaSox — 344276 7220012 57479 71 261404464867 203274 1417 387 82 — — — — — —
202525 AAABuffalo Bisons — 234186 45719 38498 20 242392435828 194281 2116 372 93 — — — — — —
202525 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 169139 37619 26404 51 266396518914 252311 2415 403 102 — — — — — —
202525 ADunedin Blue Jays — 1611 2100 421 10 182438273710 91222 1225 357 66 — — — — — —
202626 AAABuffalo Bisons — 259205 451018 47496 42 220380395775 176248 1918 355 75 — — — — — —
202626 ADunedin Blue Jays — 1917 4002 230 00 235316588904 353167 1611 388 79 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202323 A MLEModesto Nuts — 10293 22601 7151 10 237297333630 97263 157 273 71 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 148128 23723 14425 62 180286336622 156230 289 278 74 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 344297 611609 36639 71 205310350660 145223 1810 289 82 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 234197 40518 27598 20 203323360684 157248 2512 306 93 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLENew Hampshire Fisher Cats — 169147 32518 18514 51 218320429748 211268 3011 319 102 — — — — — —
202525 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 1612 2100 331 10 167375250625 83184 1919 266 66 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 259220 39816 32596 42 177298305603 127214 2312 279 75 — — — — — —
202626 A MLEDunedin Blue Jays — 1918 3001 140 00 167211333544 167142 215 285 79 — — — — — —
202323 A MLEModesto Nuts — 10293 22601 7151 10 237297333630 97269 157 273 71 — — — — — —
202323 A RAWModesto Nuts — 10290 24701 10111 10 267347378724 111291 1110 326 71 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 492425 8423212 5010514 133 198303346649 148232 2110 286 79 — — — — — —
202424 A+ RAW2 teams — 492398 10029217 778114 133 251391462853 211274 1616 380 79 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 419356 7511216 4811313 81 211326388714 177260 2711 310 96 — — — — — —
202525 AAA RAW3 teams — 419336 8414218 689113 81 250396464860 214291 2216 384 96 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 278238 42817 33636 42 176292307599 130207 2312 279 75 — — — — — —
202626 AAA RAW2 teams — 278222 4910110 49526 42 221375410785 189242 1918 357 75 — — — — — —
202323 A MLEModesto Nuts — 10293 22601 7151 10 237297333630 97263 157 273 71 — — — — — —
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 492425 8423212 5010514 133 198303346649 148225 2110 286 79 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 419355 7511216 4811313 81 211326389715 177254 2711 310 96 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 278237 42817 33636 42 177292308600 131209 2312 279 75 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 A+ MLE2 teams — 492425 8423212 5010514 133 198303346649 148225 2110 286 79 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 419355 7511216 4811313 81 211326389715 177254 2711 310 96 — — — — — —
202626 AAA MLE2 teams — 278237 42817 33636 42 177292308600 131209 2312 279 75 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLETOR 10% 328280 5811110 37808 51 209317368685 158251 2411 310 96 -2 +1 -1 -4 +7 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXTOR 10% 1614 3100 240 00 210318369686 159252 2512 310 96 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLETOR 31% 196168 36716 22484 21 209315364679 155252 2411 308 94 -1 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.0
202828 MLB CTXTOR 31% 6153 11202 7151 10 210316365681 156253 2511 308 94 -0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6153 11202 7151 10 208311358670 151250 2511 308 86 -0 +0 -0 -1 +1 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650565 11721021 7516011 110 207312356668 149250 2512 308 86 -4 +2 -4 -7 +14 0.1
Career— MLE — 16421413 28760747 17738242 308 203310355665 152242 2311 295 86 -2 +0 -2 -4 +8 0.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650559 11424319 7015117 123 204311360671 156242 2311 295 86 -4 +0 -3 -7 +14 0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 259 PAwOBA .345 → .279 (−66)K% 18.9% → 22.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.92%÷1.000×1.200——22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.37%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01812.20%
HBP% /PA2.32%—×0.940—×1.0182.22%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.000×0.930×0.952×1.01815.02%
Doubles /BIP6.41%÷1.000×0.830×0.952×1.0185.16%
Triples /BIP0.64%÷1.000×0.970×0.952×1.0180.60%
Home runs /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0183.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .345 → .279; ISO .176 → .138; BABIP .248 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 19 PAwOBA .376 → .285 (−91)K% 15.8% → 21.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷1.000×1.360——21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9606.97%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9600.00%
Singles /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.920—×0.96012.62%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9600.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9600.00%
Home runs /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.800—×0.96010.97%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .376 → .285; ISO .353 → .263; BABIP .167 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 234 PAwOBA .362 → .306 (−56)K% 20.9% → 25.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.94%÷0.988×1.200——25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.81%÷0.984×0.690—×1.03311.45%
HBP% /PA3.42%—×0.940—×1.0333.32%
Singles /BIP20.44%÷1.007×0.930×0.966×1.03318.84%
Doubles /BIP5.11%÷1.098×0.830×0.966×1.0333.86%
Triples /BIP0.73%÷0.986×0.970×0.966×1.0330.72%
Home runs /BIP6.57%÷0.847×0.700—×1.0335.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .362 → .306; ISO .194 → .166; BABIP .281 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 169 PAwOBA .393 → .319 (−74)K% 23.7% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.67%÷0.964×1.220——29.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷0.983×0.700—×0.99810.93%
HBP% /PA2.37%—×0.850—×0.9982.01%
Singles /BIP21.21%÷1.029×0.970×0.950×0.99818.96%
Doubles /BIP6.06%÷1.030×0.860×0.950×0.9984.80%
Triples /BIP1.01%÷0.997×0.950×0.950×0.9980.91%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷0.885×0.780—×0.9987.99%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .393 → .319; ISO .252 → .213; BABIP .311 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 16 PAwOBA .350 → .266 (−84)K% 12.5% → 17.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷0.968×1.360——17.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷1.015×0.690—×0.97016.49%
HBP% /PA6.25%—×0.780—×0.9704.73%
Singles /BIP11.11%÷1.006×0.920—×0.9709.85%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.047×0.830—×0.9708.54%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910—×0.9700.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.284×0.800—×0.9700.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .350 → .266; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .222 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 344 PAwOBA .379 → .289 (−90)K% 13.7% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.66%÷1.003×1.350——18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.28%÷1.082×0.710—×0.98810.55%
HBP% /PA2.62%—×0.810—×0.9882.09%
Singles /BIP17.47%÷0.992×0.910×0.953×0.98815.08%
Doubles /BIP8.73%÷1.040×0.830×0.953×0.9886.56%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.904×0.820×0.953×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP5.24%÷1.175×0.830—×0.9883.66%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .379 → .289; ISO .203 → .151; BABIP .274 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 148 PAwOBA .354 → .278 (−76)K% 23.0% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.97%÷0.995×1.220——28.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.84%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0129.18%
HBP% /PA3.38%—×0.850—×1.0122.91%
Singles /BIP13.64%÷1.015×0.970×0.950×1.01212.53%
Doubles /BIP10.23%÷1.051×0.860×0.950×1.0128.05%
Triples /BIP2.27%÷1.150×0.950×0.950×1.0121.80%
Home runs /BIP5.68%÷1.145×0.780—×1.0123.92%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .354 → .278; ISO .230 → .170; BABIP .274 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 102 PAwOBA .321 → .273 (−48)K% 10.8% → 14.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.78%÷1.026×1.360——14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.80%÷1.013×0.690—×0.9906.61%
HBP% /PA0.98%—×0.780—×0.9900.76%
Singles /BIP20.25%÷0.974×0.920×1.016×0.99019.25%
Doubles /BIP8.86%÷1.050×0.830×1.016×0.9907.04%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×1.016×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP1.27%÷0.883×0.800—×0.9901.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .321 → .273; ISO .111 → .093; BABIP .291 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).