Austin Murr
LF Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 414 | .256/.362/.456 | 11 | 12 | 93 | — | .203/.287/.362 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/A+DET | 336 | .274/.382/.445 | 8 | 13 | 81 | — | .222/.297/.362 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAPHI | 218 | .286/.347/.495 | 7 | 9 | 89 | — | .243/.292/.401 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBPHI | 3 | .223/.287/.373 | 0 | 0 | 83 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBPHI | 37 | .222/.286/.368 | 1 | 1 | 82 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 105 | 90 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 344 | 416 | 422 | 838 | 78 | 429 | 19 | 10 | 366 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 61 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 492 | 333 | 825 | 71 | 333 | 15 | 28 | 400 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 402 | 90 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 55 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 224 | 325 | 296 | 621 | 72 | 253 | 12 | 12 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 319 | 285 | 69 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 49 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 242 | 314 | 389 | 704 | 147 | 276 | 15 | 8 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 273 | 234 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 55 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 239 | 338 | 427 | 766 | 188 | 274 | 20 | 10 | 338 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 84 | 67 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 239 | 386 | 433 | 818 | 194 | 275 | 18 | 15 | 366 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 57 | 50 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 360 | 439 | 620 | 1.059 | 260 | 425 | 16 | 11 | 458 | 196 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 27 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 286 | 37 | 7 | 277 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 309 | 257 | 72 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 62 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 280 | 391 | 451 | 843 | 171 | 339 | 20 | 13 | 372 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 196 | 56 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 286 | 347 | 495 | 842 | 209 | 316 | 16 | 8 | 366 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 105 | 93 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 323 | 376 | 398 | 774 | 75 | 413 | 27 | 7 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 61 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 410 | 298 | 708 | 64 | 299 | 20 | 20 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 420 | 83 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 73 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 67 | 228 | 16 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 319 | 294 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 204 | 264 | 320 | 584 | 116 | 241 | 19 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 273 | 244 | 50 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 67 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 205 | 279 | 361 | 639 | 156 | 242 | 25 | 7 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 84 | 71 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 197 | 313 | 366 | 679 | 169 | 238 | 24 | 11 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 360 | 591 | 160 | 265 | 41 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 309 | 273 | 61 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 82 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 223 | 303 | 363 | 665 | 139 | 280 | 27 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 202 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 243 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 158 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 140 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 286 | 383 | 350 | 733 | 64 | 394 | 25 | 11 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 166 | 132 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 318 | 444 | 394 | 838 | 76 | 398 | 17 | 16 | 379 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 420 | 83 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 73 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 198 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 67 | 233 | 16 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 402 | 90 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 55 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 224 | 325 | 296 | 621 | 72 | 253 | 12 | 12 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 319 | 294 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 204 | 264 | 320 | 584 | 116 | 245 | 19 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 319 | 285 | 69 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 49 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 242 | 314 | 389 | 704 | 147 | 276 | 15 | 8 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 414 | 367 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 100 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 202 | 284 | 354 | 638 | 153 | 244 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 414 | 351 | 90 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 79 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 256 | 362 | 456 | 818 | 199 | 297 | 19 | 11 | 360 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 298 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 93 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 221 | 297 | 362 | 659 | 141 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 336 | 281 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 72 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 274 | 382 | 445 | 827 | 171 | 335 | 21 | 13 | 364 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 202 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 243 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 158 | 284 | 20 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 196 | 56 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 286 | 347 | 495 | 842 | 209 | 316 | 16 | 8 | 366 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 166 | 143 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 280 | 383 | 343 | 725 | 63 | 371 | 25 | 11 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 467 | 422 | 83 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 73 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 197 | 271 | 263 | 534 | 66 | 228 | 16 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 319 | 292 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 62 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 205 | 264 | 322 | 586 | 116 | 241 | 19 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 414 | 369 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 100 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 201 | 284 | 352 | 636 | 152 | 241 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 301 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 93 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 219 | 297 | 359 | 656 | 140 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 202 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 243 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 158 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 414 | 369 | 74 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 100 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 201 | 284 | 352 | 636 | 152 | 241 | 24 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 301 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 93 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 219 | 297 | 359 | 656 | 140 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 218 | 202 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 243 | 292 | 401 | 693 | 158 | 281 | 20 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 268 | 244 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 63 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 222 | 286 | 367 | 653 | 146 | 270 | 24 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 287 | 373 | 660 | 150 | 270 | 33 | 0 | 294 | 83 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 23% | 164 | 150 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 285 | 363 | 647 | 142 | 269 | 24 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 23% | 37 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 286 | 368 | 654 | 147 | 269 | 24 | 8 | 291 | 82 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 37 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 297 | 382 | 680 | 147 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 291 | 73 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 141 | 35 | 0 | 18 | 53 | 158 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 236 | 298 | 385 | 684 | 149 | 292 | 24 | 8 | 291 | 73 | -14 | +4 | -6 | -7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2225 | 1999 | 432 | 99 | 16 | 36 | 165 | 484 | 36 | 63 | 16 | 216 | 288 | 336 | 623 | 120 | 265 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 127 | 29 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 141 | 11 | 18 | 5 | 217 | 289 | 341 | 630 | 123 | 265 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -14 | +1 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 218 PAwOBA .357 → .300 (−57)K% 16.1% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.978 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.32% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .357 → .300; ISO .209 → .169; BABIP .316 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 309 PAwOBA .366 → .291 (−76)K% 20.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.06% | ÷0.960 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.94% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.59% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.968 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×0.968 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×0.968 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.850 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.27% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 92, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .366 → .291; ISO .171 → .150; BABIP .339 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 27 PAwOBA .280 → .246 (−34)K% 37.0% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.04% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .246; ISO .167 → .143; BABIP .286 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 273 PAwOBA .334 → .277 (−57)K% 20.1% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.15% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.32% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.47% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .334 → .277; ISO .188 → .159; BABIP .274 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 84 PAwOBA .361 → .295 (−66)K% 17.9% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 23.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 10.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 13.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 8.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .361 → .295; ISO .194 → .174; BABIP .275 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 319 PAwOBA .307 → .256 (−51)K% 15.4% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.36% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.52% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.80% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 16.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.12% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .307 → .256; ISO .147 → .121; BABIP .276 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 467 PAwOBA .283 → .240 (−43)K% 11.8% → 15.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.78% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 15.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.21% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.73% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 16.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.63% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .283 → .240; ISO .072 → .068; BABIP .253 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 105 PAwOBA .360 → .326 (−35)K% 19.0% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.05% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 26.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.14% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 35.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .360 → .326; ISO .078 → .074; BABIP .429 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .