Cameron Decker
SS Great Lakes Loons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROK2 orgs | 350 | .253/.376/.526 | 16 | 1 | 65 | — | .161/.263/.329 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/A/ROK2 orgs | 249 | .160/.283/.291 | 6 | 3 | 20 | — | .124/.217/.225 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/ROKLAD | 218 | .211/.318/.367 | 5 | 6 | 41 | — | .162/.248/.276 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBLAD | 1 | .168/.254/.287 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBLAD | 49 | .174/.259/.297 | 1 | 1 | 60 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBLAD | 100 | .178/.263/.305 | 2 | 1 | 63 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 74 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 301 | 344 | 645 | 141 | 310 | 31 | 12 | 288 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 270 | 228 | 57 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 91 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 364 | 522 | 886 | 272 | 357 | 34 | 13 | 386 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 80 | 61 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 416 | 541 | 957 | 279 | 300 | 25 | 18 | 403 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 180 | 148 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 54 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 149 | 277 | 291 | 567 | 142 | 185 | 30 | 12 | 262 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 25 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 375 | 300 | 675 | 50 | 312 | 20 | 12 | 309 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 44 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 256 | 289 | 545 | 132 | 217 | 34 | 9 | 247 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 181 | 150 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 328 | 367 | 694 | 147 | 312 | 31 | 12 | 309 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 37 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 200 | 222 | 30 | 11 | 280 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 74 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 247 | 288 | 534 | 121 | 300 | 43 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 270 | 237 | 37 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 128 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 156 | 257 | 316 | 573 | 160 | 289 | 47 | 10 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 80 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 194 | 227 | 36 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 180 | 157 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 70 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 115 | 215 | 223 | 438 | 108 | 159 | 39 | 8 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 25 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 333 | 286 | 619 | 48 | 278 | 28 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 44 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 163 | 200 | 363 | 100 | 156 | 50 | 5 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 181 | 158 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 72 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 171 | 260 | 278 | 538 | 108 | 260 | 40 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 37 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 189 | 265 | 454 | 147 | 158 | 43 | 5 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 74 | 66 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 247 | 288 | 534 | 121 | 314 | 43 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 74 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 301 | 344 | 645 | 141 | 310 | 31 | 12 | 288 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 304 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 158 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 164 | 266 | 342 | 608 | 178 | 281 | 45 | 10 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 289 | 73 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 111 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 253 | 376 | 526 | 902 | 273 | 343 | 32 | 14 | 390 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 249 | 217 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 99 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 120 | 217 | 207 | 425 | 88 | 185 | 40 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 249 | 206 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 74 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 160 | 283 | 291 | 574 | 131 | 206 | 30 | 12 | 264 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 218 | 192 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 88 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 161 | 248 | 276 | 524 | 115 | 260 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 218 | 180 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 68 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 318 | 367 | 684 | 156 | 297 | 31 | 12 | 304 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 74 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 164 | 247 | 284 | 530 | 119 | 300 | 43 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 305 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 158 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 164 | 266 | 341 | 607 | 177 | 275 | 45 | 10 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 249 | 220 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 99 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 118 | 217 | 205 | 422 | 86 | 170 | 40 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 218 | 194 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 88 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 160 | 248 | 273 | 521 | 113 | 243 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 305 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 158 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 164 | 266 | 341 | 607 | 177 | 275 | 45 | 10 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 249 | 220 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 99 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 118 | 217 | 205 | 422 | 86 | 170 | 40 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 218 | 194 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 88 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 160 | 248 | 273 | 521 | 113 | 243 | 40 | 8 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 328 | 292 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 172 | 257 | 291 | 547 | 119 | 256 | 36 | 9 | 251 | 56 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAD | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 254 | 287 | 540 | 118 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 56 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 30% | 161 | 143 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 177 | 262 | 301 | 563 | 124 | 259 | 35 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 44% | 225 | 199 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 266 | 308 | 574 | 127 | 261 | 35 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 30% | 49 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 123 | 253 | 35 | 8 | 254 | 60 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 44% | 100 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 263 | 305 | 567 | 127 | 255 | 34 | 9 | 259 | 63 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 149 | 133 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 268 | 293 | 562 | 113 | 266 | 34 | 9 | 257 | 51 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 104 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 222 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 179 | 268 | 291 | 559 | 112 | 264 | 34 | 9 | 257 | 51 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1403 | 1233 | 199 | 52 | 9 | 30 | 125 | 557 | 27 | 20 | 9 | 161 | 253 | 291 | 545 | 130 | 255 | 40 | 9 | 243 | 51 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 92 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 58 | 258 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 161 | 254 | 291 | 545 | 130 | 254 | 40 | 9 | 243 | 51 | -31 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 181 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−68)K% 31.5% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 18.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .147 → .113; BABIP .312 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 37 PAwOBA .273 → .182 (−91)K% 29.7% → 42.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 4.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 10.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 3.96% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .273 → .182; ISO .200 → .138; BABIP .222 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 180 PAwOBA .260 → .202 (−58)K% 30.0% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.980 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 10.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .260 → .202; ISO .142 → .112; BABIP .185 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 44 PAwOBA .247 → .147 (−100)K% 34.1% → 49.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.09% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 49.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 10.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.102 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.187 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .247 → .147; ISO .132 → .070; BABIP .217 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 25 PAwOBA .315 → .262 (−53)K% 20.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | — | — | 24.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | — | — | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .315 → .262; ISO .050 → .040; BABIP .312 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 270 PAwOBA .377 → .257 (−120)K% 33.7% → 47.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷0.964 | ×1.360 | — | — | 47.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.943 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.06% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 13.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.60% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 12.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.19% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 114, 2B 95, 3B 95, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .377 → .257; ISO .272 → .175; BABIP .357 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 80 PAwOBA .409 → .293 (−115)K% 25.0% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.070 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷1.011 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 15.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.010 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.967 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.76% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 7.96% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 93, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .409 → .293; ISO .279 → .221; BABIP .300 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 74 PAwOBA .285 → .230 (−55)K% 31.1% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.08% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.16% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 7.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .285 → .230; ISO .141 → .119; BABIP .310 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).