Connor PavolonyC
Norfolk Tides
Age 26
R/R
6'0" / 195 lbs
AAA
HR +8%BB -5%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
wRC+†52
AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .258 / .293
PA170
HR3
K%34
BB%7
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
34→34
SPD
44→44
EYE
46→46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-1M | $-8M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | 2 teams | 90 | 77 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .130 | .247 | .208 | .455 | .078 | .200 | 36 | 13 | .209 | 18 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 220 | 188 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 85 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .154 | .271 | .261 | .531 | .106 | .248 | 39 | 11 | .241 | 43 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | 3 teams | 144 | 130 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .115 | .196 | .154 | .350 | .038 | .219 | 46 | 7 | .168 | -14 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | 2 teams | 255 | 230 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .139 | .217 | .200 | .417 | .061 | .238 | 40 | 8 | .189 | 3 | -28 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 40 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .132 | .175 | .158 | .333 | .026 | .217 | 38 | 2 | .161 | -19 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 170 | 153 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .196 | .268 | .307 | .575 | .111 | .276 | 34 | 8 | .253 | 52 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 25% | BAL | 262 | 237 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 86 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .194 | .265 | .304 | .569 | .110 | .278 | 33 | 8 | .260 | 57 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 37% | BAL | 314 | 282 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 102 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .195 | .270 | .305 | .575 | .110 | .279 | 32 | 8 | .264 | 60 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 47% | BAL | 335 | 301 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 108 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .199 | .274 | .316 | .590 | .116 | .279 | 32 | 8 | .265 | 61 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 55% | BAL | 350 | 315 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 113 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .194 | .268 | .305 | .573 | .111 | .278 | 32 | 8 | .263 | 59 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 73% | BAL | 331 | 298 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 108 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .195 | .268 | .302 | .570 | .107 | .276 | 33 | 8 | .259 | 57 | -16 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 90% | BAL | 306 | 276 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 102 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .188 | .261 | .286 | .547 | .098 | .274 | 33 | 8 | .255 | 53 | -16 | +1 | -4 | +5 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 271 | 245 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 92 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .188 | .260 | .294 | .554 | .106 | .273 | 34 | 8 | .249 | 49 | -16 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.7 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 225 | 203 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .182 | .256 | .271 | .527 | .089 | .271 | 35 | 8 | .243 | 44 | -14 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +6 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3313 | 2973 | 536 | 106 | 11 | 55 | 269 | 1147 | 42 | 36 | 6 | .180 | .258 | .279 | .537 | .099 | .269 | 35 | 8 | .245 | 46 | -204 | +5 | -20 | +59 | +94 | -6.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 583 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 53 | 225 | 8 | 7 | 1 | .180 | .258 | .280 | .537 | .099 | .268 | 35 | 8 | .245 | 46 | -40 | +1 | -4 | +12 | +18 | -1.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 74 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .164 | .370 | .273 | .643 | .109 | .211 | 23 | 24 | .311 | 96 | -0 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | 16 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .133 | .188 | .200 | .388 | .067 | .250 | 44 | 6 | .180 | -4 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +0 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 220 | 173 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 1 | .197 | .358 | .335 | .693 | .139 | .274 | 29 | 17 | .322 | 105 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 73 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .164 | .233 | .239 | .472 | .075 | .250 | 36 | 5 | .221 | 28 | -6 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 20 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .400 | .077 | .477 | .000 | .143 | 30 | 30 | .291 | 81 | -0 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | 51 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .227 | .467 | .091 | .200 | 37 | 12 | .219 | 26 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 45 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .297 | .409 | .459 | .869 | .162 | .423 | 24 | 16 | .380 | 149 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 210 | 184 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .147 | .249 | .217 | .466 | .071 | .212 | 32 | 10 | .224 | 30 | -17 | +0 | — | — | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 40 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .162 | .225 | .189 | .414 | .027 | .240 | 30 | 5 | .198 | 10 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Connor Pavolony (OGILVIE) | 26 | 20 | 34 | 44 | 46 | .188/.258/.293 | .105 | .276 | 3 | 3 | 34% | 7% | 52 | -0.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA |
26 | 37→40 | 45 | 46→40 | 38 | .192/.248/.309 | .116 | .266 | 13 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .214/.272/.315 | .101 | .317 | 10 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .241/.302/.322 | .081 | .371 | 7 | 5 | 34% | 5% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 43→45 | 44 | .190/.273/.285 | .095 | .272 | 10 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.321/.370 | .144 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 26% | 11% | 98 | +1.6 | .221/.324/.370 | .149 | .286 | 16 | 11 | 27% | 12% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA |
26 | 38→39 | 45 | 45→50 | 39 | .191/.258/.315 | .124 | .278 | 12 | 11 | 34% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .189/.266/.294 | .105 | .293 | 8 | 13 | 36% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .164/.257/.268 | .103 | .258 | 7 | 16 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |
|
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA |
26 | 38 | 41→45 | 45 | 42 | .191/.251/.292 | .101 | .267 | 9 | 8 | 31% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .183/.267/.313 | .130 | .280 | 16 | 7 | 37% | 10% | 61 | -1.0 | .145/.237/.274 | .129 | .209 | 19 | 3 | 39% | 10% | 37 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA |
25 | 35 | 41→45 | 50→45 | 39 | .177/.239/.273 | .095 | .270 | 8 | 7 | 36% | 7% | 37 | -2.6 | .200/.266/.312 | .112 | .290 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .191/.265/.302 | .110 | .270 | 10 | 5 | 31% | 8% | 52 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA |
26 | 36→29 | 40→45 | 48→55 | 36 | .179/.243/.270 | .091 | .285 | 8 | 11 | 38% | 6% | 39 | -2.5 | .186/.268/.305 | .119 | .285 | 12 | 20 | 36% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .181/.273/.314 | .132 | .266 | 14 | 28 | 35% | 10% | 61 | -0.6 |
|
✕Alvin Colina 2008 · AAA |
26 | 38 | 45 | 41→40 | 38 | .199/.244/.317 | .118 | .258 | 14 | 4 | 29% | 5% | 51 | -1.7 | .208/.257/.331 | .123 | .278 | 14 | 5 | 30% | 5% | 60 | -1.0 | .207/.259/.329 | .122 | .275 | 15 | 3 | 30% | 5% | 59 | -0.4 |
|
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA |
25 | 40 | 43→45 | 42→50 | 39 | .196/.257/.308 | .111 | .294 | 11 | 7 | 36% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .222/.280/.337 | .115 | .319 | 10 | 13 | 32% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .230/.289/.344 | .113 | .326 | 10 | 17 | 30% | 7% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA |
26 | 40→43 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 36 | .203/.250/.319 | .116 | .288 | 12 | 9 | 33% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .216/.261/.332 | .116 | .297 | 11 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 62 | -0.9 | .216/.262/.331 | .115 | .289 | 11 | 10 | 28% | 5% | 58 | -0.8 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA |
26 | 35→37 | 45→50 | 47→50 | 39 | .184/.244/.304 | .120 | .244 | 14 | 10 | 30% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .203/.249/.336 | .133 | .277 | 16 | 10 | 32% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.254/.334 | .129 | .270 | 15 | 10 | 29% | 5% | 57 | -0.6 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2023 · AA |
25 | 39 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 46 | .192/.280/.301 | .108 | .265 | 11 | 7 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .198/.277/.336 | .138 | .251 | 16 | 10 | 27% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .186/.266/.336 | .150 | .221 | 18 | 12 | 25% | 7% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA |
26 | 38→36 | 38→40 | 45→50 | 39 | .179/.267/.254 | .075 | .295 | 6 | 11 | 38% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .179/.276/.286 | .107 | .293 | 9 | 15 | 39% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .155/.261/.260 | .105 | .255 | 9 | 18 | 39% | 9% | 45 | -1.1 |
|
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA |
26 | 37 | 39→45 | 50→55 | 40 | .183/.248/.270 | .087 | .268 | 6 | 14 | 32% | 6% | 40 | -2.4 | .194/.274/.324 | .130 | .304 | 14 | 16 | 38% | 9% | 67 | -0.5 | .179/.266/.318 | .140 | .290 | 17 | 19 | 41% | 9% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA |
26 | 41 | 38→40 | 44→30 | 46 | .195/.272/.270 | .075 | .274 | 5 | 4 | 29% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .202/.288/.309 | .107 | .309 | 10 | 4 | 34% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .184/.286/.291 | .107 | .287 | 11 | 0 | 36% | 12% | 60 | -0.4 |
|
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA |
26 | 36→37 | 38→40 | 42→45 | 43 | .176/.254/.250 | .074 | .253 | 6 | 8 | 31% | 8% | 39 | -2.5 | .189/.253/.265 | .076 | .287 | 5 | 7 | 34% | 7% | 41 | -2.3 | .166/.232/.219 | .053 | .259 | 3 | 3 | 35% | 6% | 18 | -2.1 |
|
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA |
26 | 39 | 44→45 | 44→30 | 42 | .198/.260/.314 | .117 | .277 | 12 | 3 | 32% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .209/.275/.343 | .134 | .298 | 17 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .192/.269/.319 | .127 | .267 | 18 | 2 | 34% | 9% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Brent Diaz 2022 · AA |
26 | 41 | 43→45 | 45 | 39 | .196/.275/.304 | .108 | .304 | 11 | 8 | 37% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .218/.283/.353 | .135 | .305 | 16 | 9 | 32% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .202/.265/.336 | .134 | .270 | 18 | 9 | 31% | 5% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2021 · AA |
26 | 41 | 44→45 | 49→40 | 38 | .208/.261/.320 | .112 | .286 | 13 | 6 | 32% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.252/.302 | .097 | .293 | 8 | 5 | 31% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .226/.285/.301 | .075 | .297 | 3 | 2 | 23% | 6% | 61 | -0.4 |
|
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA |
26 | 38 | 45→50 | 43→30 | 40 | .195/.250/.317 | .122 | .255 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .193/.251/.326 | .133 | .244 | 17 | 4 | 28% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .182/.252/.278 | .096 | .251 | 12 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 42 | -0.9 |