Connor Pavolony
C Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 144 | .145/.259/.218 | 2 | 2 | 13 | — | .117/.204/.164 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 255 | .172/.277/.258 | 3 | 1 | 16 | — | .140/.218/.202 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAABAL | 40 | .162/.225/.189 | 0 | 0 | -3 | — | .158/.200/.184 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 10 | .214/.281/.333 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 50 | .214/.281/.333 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ40% MLB | 29 | MLBBAL | 75 | .213/.280/.330 | 1 | 1 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 74 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 370 | 273 | 643 | 109 | 211 | 23 | 24 | 311 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 200 | 388 | 67 | 250 | 44 | 6 | 180 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 220 | 173 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 358 | 335 | 693 | 139 | 274 | 29 | 17 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 73 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 239 | 472 | 75 | 250 | 36 | 5 | 221 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 20 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 400 | 77 | 477 | 143 | 30 | 30 | 291 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 51 | 44 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 136 | 240 | 227 | 467 | 91 | 200 | 37 | 12 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 45 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 297 | 409 | 459 | 869 | 162 | 423 | 24 | 16 | 380 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 210 | 184 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 249 | 217 | 466 | 71 | 212 | 32 | 10 | 224 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 225 | 189 | 414 | 27 | 240 | 30 | 5 | 198 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 74 | 61 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 131 | 274 | 213 | 487 | 82 | 182 | 30 | 16 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 16 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 125 | 67 | 192 | 188 | 62 | 6 | 92 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 220 | 188 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 85 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 271 | 261 | 531 | 106 | 236 | 39 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 73 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 192 | 191 | 383 | 59 | 240 | 44 | 4 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 20 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 250 | 62 | 312 | 109 | 45 | 15 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 45 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 341 | 385 | 726 | 128 | 389 | 27 | 11 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 210 | 191 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 85 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 191 | 162 | 354 | 47 | 187 | 40 | 7 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 26 | 232 | 38 | 2 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 90 | 76 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 247 | 197 | 445 | 79 | 186 | 37 | 14 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 90 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 157 | 337 | 257 | 594 | 100 | 217 | 27 | 21 | 288 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 220 | 188 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 85 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 271 | 261 | 531 | 106 | 248 | 39 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 220 | 173 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 358 | 335 | 693 | 139 | 274 | 29 | 17 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 144 | 130 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 196 | 154 | 350 | 38 | 209 | 44 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 144 | 124 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 259 | 218 | 476 | 73 | 222 | 35 | 11 | 230 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 230 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 217 | 200 | 417 | 61 | 231 | 38 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 255 | 221 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 79 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 277 | 258 | 535 | 86 | 252 | 31 | 11 | 252 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 26 | 261 | 38 | 2 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 225 | 189 | 414 | 27 | 240 | 30 | 5 | 198 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 90 | 77 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 117 | 247 | 195 | 442 | 78 | 183 | 37 | 14 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 220 | 188 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 85 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 271 | 261 | 531 | 106 | 236 | 39 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 144 | 130 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 196 | 154 | 350 | 38 | 212 | 44 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 230 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 217 | 200 | 417 | 61 | 223 | 38 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 26 | 232 | 38 | 2 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 255 | 230 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 217 | 200 | 417 | 61 | 223 | 38 | 8 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 40 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 184 | 384 | 26 | 232 | 38 | 2 | 164 | -3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 10% | 200 | 181 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 56 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 278 | 326 | 604 | 115 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 272 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 281 | 333 | 614 | 119 | 283 | 30 | 10 | 277 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 31% | 161 | 146 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 278 | 325 | 603 | 114 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 40% | 190 | 172 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 53 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 277 | 323 | 600 | 113 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 31% | 50 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 281 | 333 | 614 | 118 | 283 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 40% | 75 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 280 | 330 | 611 | 117 | 282 | 28 | 8 | 275 | 70 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 125 | 113 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 288 | 310 | 598 | 97 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 276 | 41 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 124 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 52 | 182 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 95 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 276 | 41 | -23 | +2 | -4 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1205 | 1075 | 180 | 35 | 5 | 17 | 102 | 421 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 167 | 251 | 257 | 508 | 89 | 253 | 35 | 8 | 229 | 41 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 97 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 227 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 167 | 252 | 257 | 508 | 90 | 253 | 35 | 8 | 229 | 41 | -23 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 40 PAwOBA .194 → .164 (−30)K% 30.0% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .194 → .164; ISO .027 → .021; BABIP .240 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABowie Baysox · 210 PAwOBA .219 → .162 (−57)K% 32.4% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.38% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 15.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.062 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 2.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.61% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .219 → .162; ISO .071 → .044; BABIP .212 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 45 PAwOBA .371 → .331 (−40)K% 24.4% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 19.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 19.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .371 → .331; ISO .162 → .147; BABIP .423 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 73 PAwOBA .216 → .170 (−45)K% 35.6% → 44.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.62% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.48% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .216 → .170; ISO .075 → .048; BABIP .250 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 20 PAwOBA .287 → .175 (−112)K% 30.0% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 16.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 10.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .287 → .175; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .143 → .109. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 220 PAwOBA .318 → .241 (−77)K% 29.1% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.09% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.18% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 17.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.83% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.59% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .318 → .241; ISO .139 → .116; BABIP .274 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 74 PAwOBA .309 → .235 (−75)K% 23.0% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.97% | ÷1.027 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | — | 16.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | — | 12.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | — | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.03% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .309 → .235; ISO .109 → .087; BABIP .211 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Orioles Orange · 16 PAwOBA .176 → .092 (−84)K% 43.8% → 63.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 63.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 9.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 8.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .176 → .092; ISO .067 → .031; BABIP .250 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .