Connor Pavolony — OGILVIE

Connor PavolonyC Norfolk Tides

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .244 / .249

PA170

HR1

K%30

BB%7

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	90	77	10	3	0	1	12	32	0	3	0	130	247	208	455	78	200	36	13	208	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	90	70	11	4	0	1	19	24	0	3	0	157	337	257	594	100	217	27	21	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	185	29	4	2	4	27	87	6	1	1	157	284	265	549	108	260	40	12	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	144	130	14	2	0	1	10	67	3	2	0	108	189	146	335	38	206	47	7	164	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	144	124	18	3	0	2	16	51	3	2	0	145	259	218	476	73	222	35	11	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	255	231	31	8	0	2	19	105	3	1	0	134	209	195	404	61	234	41	7	182	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	255	221	38	10	0	3	29	79	3	1	0	172	277	258	535	86	252	31	11	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	261	38	2	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BAL	—	170	154	28	6	1	1	12	51	2	3	1	182	250	253	503	71	255	30	7	230	34	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BAL	31%	262	238	43	9	1	2	19	76	3	4	1	181	250	252	502	71	259	29	7	239	41	-17	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.5
2027	27	MLB	BAL	31%	81	74	14	3	0	1	6	24	1	1	0	189	259	270	530	81	263	30	7	234	37	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	81	74	14	3	0	1	6	24	1	1	0	189	259	270	530	81	265	30	7	234	37	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	112	24	0	8	48	193	8	8	0	189	258	269	528	81	265	30	7	234	37	-46	+2	+0	+12	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	1181	1053	161	33	4	11	100	433	18	14	3	153	238	223	461	70	244	37	8	213	21	-105	+2	+0	+21	+33	-5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	88	18	2	6	55	238	10	8	2	152	237	221	458	69	242	37	8	213	21	-58	+1	+0	+12	+18	-2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	74	55	9	3	0	1	18	17	0	2	0	164	370	273	643	109	211	23	24	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	15	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	133	188	200	388	67	250	44	6	180	-4	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	105	+1	-0	—	—	+6	0.7
2023	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	73	67	11	2	0	1	4	26	2	1	0	164	233	239	472	75	250	36	5	221	28	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	23	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	20	13	1	0	0	0	6	6	1	0	0	77	400	77	477		143	30	30	291	81	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	51	44	6	1	0	1	6	19	0	1	0	136	240	227	467	91	200	37	12	219	26	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	45	37	11	6	0	0	7	11	0	0	0	297	409	459	869	162	423	24	16	380	149	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	210	184	27	4	0	3	22	68	3	1	0	147	249	217	466	71	212	32	10	224	30	-17	+0	—	—	+6	-1.1
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	10	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Pavolony (OGILVIE)	26	20	33	44	45	178/244/249	70	255	1	3	30%	7%	34	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	35→37	37→40	43→45	42	172/248/244	72	250	5	8	31%	7%	35	-2.8	192/256/268	76	294	6	7	34%	7%	43	-2.2	166/232/217	51	261	3	3	35%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	36	37→40	45→40	39	177/253/247	71	262	5	5	32%	6%	38	-2.6	192/271/279	87	273	7	6	30%	7%	53	-1.5	147/251/218	70	204	5	0	28%	8%	28	-0.7
✕Matt Whatley 2022 · AA	26	40→36	38→40	45→50	44	192/263/267	75	276	7	14	31%	8%	46	-2.0	190/249/283	93	268	11	9	32%	6%	45	-2.1	167/230/254	87	226	12	8	31%	6%	27	-1.2
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA	26	41	36→30	44→30	45	197/256/265	68	265	3	5	26%	7%	42	-2.3	207/267/288	81	275	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	190/254/236	46	252	2	0	24%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	42	186/246/261	75	259	6	6	30%	7%	37	-2.6	202/265/279	77	274	6	7	26%	7%	50	-1.8	195/263/252	57	256	4	5	24%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	43	176/238/256	80	243	5	3	29%	7%	33	-2.9	198/252/310	112	281	12	4	32%	6%	53	-1.5	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/248/245	56	270	3	4	30%	6%	33	-2.9	211/276/282	71	286	5	5	26%	6%	56	-1.3	165/233/180	15	204	0	4	18%	6%	10	-0.8
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	38	39→40	47→40	43	183/265/268	86	275	7	6	34%	8%	48	-1.9	196/271/271	75	301	5	6	34%	8%	51	-1.7	178/263/236	57	284	5	1	35%	8%	36	-0.6
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	38→36	38→40	44→50	38	172/263/245	73	309	5	11	42%	8%	42	-2.3	183/278/292	109	301	9	15	39%	8%	61	-1.0	161/264/270	110	265	10	18	39%	8%	48	-1.0
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2017 · AAA	26	42	37→30	44→50	45	203/257/271	68	250	6	4	21%	6%	43	-2.2	219/270/286	67	260	6	4	17%	6%	53	-1.5	223/271/276	53	256	7	0	15%	6%	49	-0.6
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	39→40	44→45	34	192/246/279	87	294	6	5	35%	4%	42	-2.3	189/241/273	84	303	7	6	38%	5%	37	-2.6	167/216/237	70	277	6	4	40%	5%	15	-1.5
✕Jio Mier 2017 · AAA	26	42→43	40	44→50	44	204/261/293	89	265	7	8	25%	7%	52	-1.6	204/249/297	93	277	8	8	28%	5%	47	-1.9	182/218/256	73	255	5	3	30%	3%	21	-1.6
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	37→47	38→45	46→50	39	184/239/256	72	270	6	8	33%	6%	33	-2.9	217/255/317	100	318	11	17	34%	4%	54	-1.4	222/246/322	99	331	13	23	36%	3%	49	-1.1
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA	26	39	40	50	38	192/244/277	85	285	8	15	34%	6%	40	-2.4	202/255/293	91	305	9	12	34%	6%	49	-1.8	138/193/172	34	236	3	8	41%	6%	-10	-1.1
✕Richard Lewis 2006 · AAA	26	42	38→40	49→50	41	202/257/283	81	279	6	9	29%	6%	47	-1.9	214/259/292	78	277	6	12	24%	5%	50	-1.8	213/255/281	68	271	4	12	22%	4%	43	-1.4
✕Erick Castillo 2019 · AA	26	41	38→30	46→30	41	201/247/275	74	255	6	4	24%	5%	40	-2.4	207/263/283	76	264	6	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	199/267/230	31	253	2	0	20%	5%	36	-0.7
✕Brian Bocock 2011 · MLB	26	40→45	37→40	46→50	44	194/250/264	70	262	5	12	27%	7%	39	-2.5	201/250/282	81	261	6	13	24%	6%	43	-2.2	200/244/276	76	258	4	12	23%	5%	36	-1.4
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Rylan Sandoval 2014 · AAA	26	41	40	45	37	201/253/290	89	292	7	7	32%	5%	47	-1.9	218/269/306	88	322	7	9	32%	6%	58	-1.2	226/265/276	50	355	4	4	36%	5%	43	-0.4
✕Korey Feiner 2008 · AAA	26	41	35→30	46→30	46	193/274/248	55	272	3	3	28%	8%	46	-2.0	196/270/264	68	267	5	5	27%	6%	49	-1.8	177/270/238	62	247	7	0	29%	6%	41	-0.5