Connor Pavolony — OGILVIE

Connor PavolonyC Norfolk Tides

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†44

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP259

ISO77

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	74	55	9	3	0	1	18	17	0	2	0	164	370	273	643	109	211	23	24	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	15	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	133	188	200	388	67	250	44	6	180	8	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	104	+1	-0	—	—	+5	0.6
2023	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	73	67	11	2	0	1	4	26	2	1	0	164	233	239	472	75	250	36	5	221	36	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	23	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	20	13	1	0	0	0	6	6	1	0	0	77	400	77	477		143	30	30	291	83	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	51	44	6	1	0	1	6	19	0	1	0	136	240	227	467	91	200	37	12	219	34	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	45	37	11	6	0	0	7	11	0	0	0	297	409	459	869	162	423	24	16	380	144	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	210	184	27	4	0	3	22	68	3	1	0	147	249	217	466	71	212	32	10	224	38	-16	+0	—	—	+5	-1.1
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	20	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	74	61	8	2	0	1	12	22	0	2	0	131	274	213	487	82	182	30	16	235	45	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	1	0	67	125	67	192		192	62	6	94	-50	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	186	29	4	2	4	26	86	6	1	1	156	280	263	543	108	250	39	12	247	53	-12	-0	—	—	+5	-0.8
2023	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	73	68	9	1	0	1	3	32	2	1	0	132	192	191	383	59	231	44	4	166	-1	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	20	15	1	0	0	0	4	9	1	0	0	67	300	67	367		114	45	20	182	9	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	45	39	10	5	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	376	27	11	322	104	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	210	191	21	3	0	2	15	85	3	1	0	110	187	157	344	47	183	40	7	160	-6	-26	+0	—	—	+5	-2.2
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	5	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	132	175	158	333	26	228	38	2	161	-5	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	76	9	3	0	1	13	33	0	3	0	118	247	197	445	79	186	37	14	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	90	70	11	4	0	1	19	24	0	3	0	157	337	257	594	100	217	27	21	288	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	186	29	4	2	4	26	86	6	1	1	156	280	263	543	108	255	39	12	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	144	130	15	2	0	1	10	63	3	2	0	115	196	154	350	38	209	44	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	144	124	18	3	0	2	16	51	3	2	0	145	259	218	476	73	222	35	11	230	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	231	38	8	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	255	221	38	10	0	3	29	79	3	1	0	172	277	258	535	86	252	31	11	252	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	5	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	132	175	158	333	26	217	38	2	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	77	9	3	0	1	13	33	0	3	0	117	247	195	442	78	184	37	14	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	186	29	4	2	4	26	86	6	1	1	156	280	263	543	108	250	39	12	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	144	130	15	2	0	1	10	63	3	2	0	115	196	154	350	38	206	44	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	217	38	8	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	5	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	132	175	158	333	26	228	38	2	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	144	130	15	2	0	1	10	63	3	2	0	115	196	154	350	38	206	44	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	217	38	8	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	5	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	132	175	158	333	26	228	38	2	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	BAL	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	231	286	308	593	77	255	29	7	233	44	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.3
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	26	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						259	0	0	227	44	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	31%	262	238	46	10	1	3	19	74	3	4	1	193	262	282	543	88	259	28	7	242	50	-16	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	31%	81	74	14	3	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	189	259	270	530	81	263	28	7	237	50	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	81	74	14	3	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	189	259	270	530	81	260	28	7	237	31	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	112	24	0	8	48	185	8	8	0	189	258	269	528	81	259	28	7	237	31	-39	+2	+0	+12	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1025	911	139	29	3	11	90	373	16	11	2	153	241	227	468	75	241	36	9	214	31	-17	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	88	18	2	7	57	237	10	7	1	152	240	227	467	74	240	36	9	214	31	-39	+1	+0	+12	+14	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Pavolony (OGILVIE)	26	20	34	44	46	181/248/253	72	255	1	3	29%	7%	44	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	37→40	45→40	40	178/255/248	70	259	5	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	192/272/277	85	272	7	6	30%	7%	59	-1.7	144/248/206	63	200	4	0	27%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Matt Whatley 2022 · AA	26	40→38	38→40	45→50	45	194/267/268	75	278	6	14	31%	8%	54	-2.0	189/250/280	91	266	10	9	31%	6%	51	-2.3	166/228/249	83	225	11	8	31%	6%	34	-1.3
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	39	41→45	45	43	195/255/293	98	270	8	9	30%	7%	55	-1.9	181/266/305	124	275	14	6	37%	10%	63	-1.4	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	188/250/263	74	259	6	6	29%	7%	46	-2.6	203/267/280	77	271	6	7	26%	7%	57	-1.8	197/264/256	59	255	4	5	23%	8%	47	-1.2
✕Lyle Lin 2023 · AA	26	40	35→30	43→40	40	189/247/246	57	270	3	4	30%	6%	41	-3.0	210/275/282	72	284	5	5	26%	6%	60	-1.6	171/242/188	17	208	0	4	16%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	45	178/242/259	81	242	5	3	28%	8%	42	-2.9	201/257/311	110	284	11	4	32%	7%	60	-1.6	175/280/306	130	256	18	8	36%	11%	67	-0.3
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	183/248/269	86	262	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	15	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Stephen McGee 2017 · AAA	26	40	38→40	44→30	45	194/269/271	78	275	6	4	30%	8%	56	-1.9	204/290/309	105	310	9	4	34%	10%	73	-0.6	190/290/293	103	292	10	0	35%	12%	67	-0.4
✕Eric Yang 2023 · AAA	25	39	39→40	47→40	44	186/268/270	84	277	6	6	33%	8%	56	-1.9	197/273/272	75	298	5	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	178/263/231	54	280	4	1	35%	9%	43	-0.6
✕Josh Bissonette 2023 · AAA	26	43	36→30	44→30	46	202/263/268	66	268	3	5	25%	7%	52	-2.2	210/273/291	81	277	6	7	24%	8%	61	-1.5	193/259/240	46	254	2	0	23%	8%	41	-0.9
✕Chandler Seagle 2022 · AA	26	40	38→40	44→45	35	193/247/277	84	283	5	5	32%	4%	49	-2.4	190/240/270	80	296	6	6	36%	5%	44	-2.8	170/217/237	67	275	5	4	38%	5%	25	-1.5
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	39→36	38→40	44→50	39	180/268/256	77	304	6	11	39%	8%	53	-2.1	179/276/283	104	292	9	15	38%	8%	63	-1.4	154/260/256	101	254	9	18	39%	9%	50	-1.3
✕Anderson De La Rosa 2011 · AAA	26	38	38→40	42→40	35	189/228/264	76	260	5	5	29%	4%	38	-3.2	202/239/294	92	271	7	4	28%	4%	49	-2.4	204/236/295	91	271	8	2	27%	3%	44	-1.1
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA	26	40	40	50	38	196/250/283	87	289	8	15	33%	6%	51	-2.3	205/260/298	93	305	8	12	33%	6%	57	-1.8	147/203/184	38	244	3	8	39%	6%	9	-1.0
✕Richard Lewis 2006 · AAA	26	42	38→40	49→50	41	203/260/284	80	279	6	9	28%	6%	54	-2.0	215/261/293	78	276	5	12	23%	5%	57	-1.8	215/257/282	67	271	4	12	22%	4%	51	-1.5
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	175/237/270	95	265	8	7	36%	7%	43	-2.8	201/267/311	110	285	10	8	31%	7%	64	-1.3	188/261/294	106	261	9	5	30%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Ryan Dent 2015 · AAA	26	43→42	39→40	47→50	42	208/263/293	85	282	5	14	27%	6%	58	-1.7	209/262/299	90	292	7	8	29%	6%	59	-1.7	215/259/304	89	302	7	3	30%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Yadiel Rivera 2019 · MLB	27	39→49	38→40	46→50	40	190/245/264	74	274	6	8	32%	6%	45	-2.7	220/258/323	103	315	12	17	33%	5%	63	-1.4	224/249/331	107	323	14	23	34%	3%	57	-1.1
✕Pat Cantwell 2016 · AAA	26	43	37→30	42→40	41	202/265/273	71	260	4	4	23%	5%	55	-2.0	211/272/287	76	292	6	8	28%	6%	60	-1.6	231/298/302	72	322	6	8	28%	6%	71	-0.2