Brenden Dixon — OGILVIE

Brenden DixonSS Birmingham Barons

Age 26 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .263 / .316

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%8

BABIP255

ISO131

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	20	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	32	10	1	1	2	10	12	1	2	0	312	488	594	1.082	281	444	28	23	470	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	289	60	12	2	8	53	104	4	6	1	208	338	346	684	138	292	30	15	316	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	215	47	10	2	11	39	76	4	1	3	219	349	437	786	219	273	29	15	345	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	15	14	2	0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	143	200	357	557	214	167	47	7	246	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	224	197	37	6	0	8	24	69	2	6	0	188	283	340	623	152	240	31	11	283	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	182	32	5	1	3	27	63	2	9	2	176	288	264	551	88	246	29	13	258	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	97	86	16	4	0	5	8	26	2	1	1	186	271	407	678	221	200	27	8	298	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	36	9	1	1	2	6	17	1	2	0	250	372	500	872	250	339	40	14	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	307	46	8	2	5	35	142	4	6	1	150	246	238	483	88	251	41	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	231	35	6	2	8	23	99	4	1	3	152	240	299	539	147	205	38	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	15	14	2	0	0	1	1	9	0	1	0	143	200	357	557	214	156	60	7	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	224	204	32	5	0	7	17	88	2	6	0	157	229	284	513	127	223	39	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	192	28	4	1	3	18	81	2	9	2	146	226	224	450	78	220	38	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	97	89	13	3	0	4	5	32	2	1	1	146	208	315	523	169	169	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	36	9	1	1	2	6	17	1	2	0	250	372	500	872	250	412	40	14	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	32	10	1	1	2	10	12	1	2	0	312	488	594	1.082	281	444	28	23	470	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	307	46	8	2	5	35	142	4	6	1	150	246	238	483	88	255	41	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	289	60	12	2	8	53	104	4	6	1	208	338	346	684	138	292	30	15	316	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	231	35	6	2	8	23	99	4	1	3	152	240	299	539	147	211	38	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	215	47	10	2	11	39	76	4	1	3	219	349	437	786	219	273	29	15	345	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	239	219	34	5	0	8	17	97	2	7	0	155	223	288	510	132	226	41	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	239	211	39	6	0	9	25	76	2	7	0	185	277	341	619	156	236	32	10	281	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	192	28	4	1	3	18	81	2	9	2	146	226	224	450	78	227	38	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	215	182	32	5	1	3	27	63	2	9	2	176	288	264	551	88	246	29	13	258	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	97	89	13	3	0	4	5	32	2	1	1	146	208	315	523	169	170	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	—	97	86	16	4	0	5	8	26	2	1	1	186	271	407	678	221	200	27	8	298	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	36	9	1	1	2	6	17	1	2	0	250	372	500	872	250	339	40	14	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	305	46	8	2	5	35	142	4	6	1	151	246	239	485	89	251	41	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	234	35	6	2	8	23	99	4	1	3	150	240	295	535	145	205	38	9	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	239	218	34	5	0	8	17	97	2	7	0	156	223	289	512	133	219	41	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	193	28	4	1	3	18	81	2	9	2	145	226	223	449	78	220	38	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	97	90	13	3	0	4	5	32	2	1	1	144	208	311	519	167	169	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	239	218	34	5	0	8	17	97	2	7	0	156	223	289	512	133	219	41	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	193	28	4	1	3	18	81	2	9	2	145	226	223	449	78	220	38	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	97	90	13	3	0	4	5	32	2	1	1	144	208	311	519	167	169	33	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	200	181	36	7	1	5	15	60	2	4	1	192	262	314	576	122	255	30	8	260	62	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	193	263	316	579	123	255	33	0	262	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	27%	262	237	46	9	1	6	20	77	3	5	1	194	264	316	580	122	256	29	8	262	64	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	27%	70	64	12	2	0	2	5	21	1	1	0	194	265	318	583	124	257	30	7	264	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	70	64	12	2	0	2	5	21	1	1	0	188	257	312	570	125	244	30	7	264	45	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	112	19	0	19	46	195	9	9	0	189	257	316	573	128	245	30	7	264	45	-28	+2	+0	+7	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1636	1464	241	42	8	40	137	596	20	34	9	165	246	286	532	122	240	36	8	235	45	-19	+1	+0	+5	+9	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	96	17	3	16	54	237	8	14	4	165	245	287	532	122	240	36	8	235	45	-29	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brenden Dixon (OGILVIE)	26	25	35	55	55	190/260/311	121	255	4	3	30%	8%	62	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2024 · MLB	26	40→30	45	46→50	48	204/282/322	118	264	14	13	28%	9%	73	-0.6	200/274/299	99	273	9	11	28%	9%	64	-1.3	159/229/234	75	220	6	10	29%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2023 · AA	26	38	47→45	52→50	42	196/260/323	127	273	15	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	197/275/307	110	300	10	14	35%	9%	66	-1.1	186/271/290	104	286	8	12	35%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2012 · AAA	26	41	44→40	51→50	43	208/270/317	109	268	13	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	220/259/312	92	279	10	11	24%	4%	60	-1.6	198/232/274	76	253	10	9	26%	3%	38	-0.8
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	34→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/243/305	121	244	14	10	31%	6%	54	-2.0	209/255/340	131	279	14	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Maverick Handley 2024 · AAA	26	42	42→40	50	47	203/297/306	103	287	10	13	31%	9%	75	-0.5	206/294/291	85	286	6	10	27%	9%	70	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Max Burt 2023 · AAA	26	39→35	45	54→55	37	200/250/318	119	279	13	18	33%	5%	59	-1.6	187/244/290	103	273	11	22	34%	6%	51	-2.3	169/229/255	86	251	9	26	34%	5%	35	-1.6
✕Cody Puckett 2013 · AAA	26	39→40	47→50	50	40	202/254/338	136	263	15	11	30%	6%	65	-1.2	213/256/350	137	247	17	10	22%	5%	69	-0.9	206/240/347	141	216	21	8	17%	4%	59	-1.1
✕Jacob Buchberger 2024 · AA	26	42→45	44→45	51→50	44	212/270/325	113	272	13	13	27%	7%	68	-1.0	212/275/312	100	295	9	13	29%	8%	67	-1.1	201/268/278	77	290	5	14	30%	8%	53	-1.5
✕Jordan Brewer 2024 · AA	26	39	42→45	52→55	42	194/265/298	104	279	10	18	33%	7%	61	-1.5	206/270/319	113	269	10	14	26%	6%	67	-1.1	192/257/305	113	242	10	14	24%	6%	57	-1.0
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	42	46→40	48→55	42	209/269/335	126	284	13	14	30%	7%	70	-0.8	228/297/333	105	298	8	27	25%	8%	80	-0.2	233/309/320	88	303	5	48	23%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	36→38	44→45	47→40	37	188/242/300	112	260	12	4	32%	5%	53	-2.1	215/273/311	96	313	9	8	32%	5%	66	-1.1	242/302/318	76	364	6	5	33%	5%	76	-0.2
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	201/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	62	-1.4	217/284/338	121	301	14	4	30%	8%	76	-0.4	209/280/326	117	287	14	1	31%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	39→42	44→45	54→50	42	196/268/311	115	273	12	15	32%	7%	65	-1.2	197/262/306	109	291	11	12	34%	7%	61	-1.5	155/224/256	101	238	9	9	37%	7%	32	-1.3
✕Bennett Hostetler 2024 · AA	26	40→38	46→45	49→45	41	204/273/333	129	270	15	7	30%	6%	72	-0.7	198/259/308	110	300	10	13	36%	6%	61	-1.5	174/231/238	64	301	2	19	40%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	38→40	43→45	45→50	40	188/260/301	113	281	9	10	35%	7%	60	-1.6	193/272/299	106	298	8	13	35%	8%	64	-1.3	165/257/264	99	259	6	16	35%	9%	51	-1.0
✕Ryan Christianson 2007 · AAA	26	35	46→45	49→50	38	185/244/303	118	271	15	9	37%	7%	53	-2.1	201/257/330	129	291	16	9	35%	7%	64	-1.3	162/215/287	125	224	17	0	36%	6%	36	-0.7
✕Jordan Tarsovich 2017 · AA	26	39	44→45	46→50	47	198/270/309	111	250	12	9	26%	8%	65	-1.2	199/269/291	92	266	7	12	26%	8%	60	-1.6	182/256/255	73	246	4	15	26%	8%	45	-1.8
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	41	189/264/294	105	291	11	14	37%	8%	59	-1.6	201/274/303	102	294	9	14	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/290/284	94	249	9	24	25%	10%	64	-0.3