Brenden Dixon — OGILVIE

Brenden DixonSS Birmingham Barons

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 205 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 156 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.156 / .232 / .270

PA156

HR4

K%38

BB%8

BABIP228

ISO113

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	36	9	1	1	2	6	17	1	2	0	250	372	500	872	250	412	40	14	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	32	10	1	1	2	10	12	1	2	0	312	488	594	1.082	281	444	28	23	470	218	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	304	44	8	2	5	38	149	4	6	1	145	249	234	482	89	258	43	11	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	289	60	12	2	8	53	104	4	6	1	208	338	346	684	138	292	30	15	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	228	34	6	2	6	26	101	4	1	3	149	248	272	520	123	224	38	10	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	215	47	10	2	11	39	76	4	1	3	219	349	437	786	219	273	29	15	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	239	219	33	5	0	10	17	106	2	7	0	151	218	311	529	160	221	44	7	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	239	211	39	6	0	9	25	76	2	7	0	185	277	341	619	156	236	32	10	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	193	26	4	1	3	17	91	2	9	2	135	212	212	425	78	228	42	8	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	182	32	5	1	3	27	63	2	9	2	176	288	264	551	88	246	29	13	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	CWS	—	73	67	9	3	0	3	3	26	2	0	1	134	194	313	508	179	158	36	4	213	21	-6	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
YTD	25	AA	CWS	—	73	65	11	4	0	3	5	20	2	0	1	169	250	369	619	200	190	27	7	273	67	-3	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	25	AA	CWS	2%	156	141	22	4	0	4	12	59	2	3	1	156	232	270	502	113	238	38	8	239	41	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.4
ROS	25	MLB	CWS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						239	33	0	232	36	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	CWS	—	76	70	9	3	0	3	3	27	2	0	1	129	187	300	487	171	150	36	4	214	22	-7	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
TOT	25	AA	CWS	—	229	208	31	7	0	7	15	85	4	3	2	149	220	284	504	135	205	37	7	231	35	-17	-0	+0	+2	+6	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	CWS	31%	309	279	47	9	1	8	24	112	3	6	2	168	242	294	536	125	245	36	8	248	48	-18	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.6
2028	27	MLB	CWS	42%	346	312	56	11	1	10	27	122	4	6	2	179	254	317	571	138	250	35	8	254	53	-19	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.5
2027	26	MLB	CWS	31%	96	88	15	3	0	3	7	35	1	2	1	170	240	307	546	136	246	36	7	241	43	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2028	27	MLB	CWS	42%	146	132	23	5	0	4	11	51	2	3	1	174	248	303	551	129	250	35	8	247	47	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	245	223	38	8	0	7	18	87	3	5	2	170	242	300	542	130	238	36	7	245	46	-15	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	101	21	0	19	48	231	8	13	5	171	243	302	545	132	238	36	7	245	46	-40	+1	+0	+7	+18	-1.4
Career	—			—	1918	1712	271	48	8	48	167	757	22	40	11	158	242	280	522	121	242	39	9	235	38	-135	+4	+0	+21	+54	-5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	92	16	3	16	57	257	7	14	4	159	242	279	521	121	244	40	9	235	38	-46	+1	+0	+7	+18	-2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	FCL Pirates Gold	—	43	32	10	1	1	2	10	12	1	2	0	312	488	594	1.082	281	444	28	23	470	218	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	347	289	60	12	2	8	53	104	4	6	1	208	338	346	684	138	292	30	15	316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+10	1.1
2023	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	263	215	47	10	2	11	39	76	4	1	3	219	349	437	786	219	273	29	15	345	122	+7	-1	—	—	+7	1.3
2024	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	15	14	2	0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	143	200	357	557	214	167	47	7	246	46	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	224	197	37	6	0	8	24	69	2	6	0	188	283	340	623	152	240	31	11	283	75	-6	+1	—	—	+6	0.1
2025	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	182	32	5	1	3	27	63	2	9	2	176	288	264	551	88	246	29	13	258	55	-11	+1	—	—	+6	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	246	7	4	176	247	308	+3	+3	-0.4	-0.2
	/162	664	18	12	176	247	308	+7.1	+8.1	-1.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brenden Dixon (OGILVIE)	25	25	35	55	55	149/220/284	135	205	7	3	37%	7%	35	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	34	40→45	50→45	38	172/234/264	91	270	8	7	38%	7%	33	-2.9	198/262/311	113	286	10	8	32%	7%	57	-1.2	182/252/296	114	256	10	5	31%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Jason Martinson 2014 · AA	25	36→39	46→45	54→50	38	184/255/307	124	295	15	15	41%	8%	54	-1.4	186/245/294	108	295	12	14	39%	6%	45	-2.1	162/221/268	105	271	12	8	43%	6%	26	-2.4
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	37→39	42→45	47→50	38	186/242/289	103	277	10	12	35%	6%	43	-2.2	197/252/301	104	308	9	13	37%	6%	50	-1.8	206/260/308	103	297	8	9	32%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→33	43→45	48→45	41	191/257/300	109	268	10	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	202/261/308	106	298	10	7	33%	7%	56	-1.3	189/237/299	111	279	11	0	35%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	36	44→45	47→50	43	187/255/303	116	259	12	5	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/267/312	121	296	14	14	37%	9%	60	-1.0	169/257/271	103	275	11	16	40%	10%	43	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→28	45	50	37	195/254/318	123	282	13	12	35%	6%	56	-1.3	212/270/305	93	320	9	17	34%	6%	59	-1.1	219/278/292	73	339	7	24	35%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2
✕Marty Bechina 2022 · AAA	25	34→33	47→50	48→45	30	178/225/314	135	284	15	8	42%	4%	43	-2.2	194/265/328	134	314	15	9	40%	7%	64	-0.8	172/260/302	130	280	15	8	41%	8%	52	-1.1
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	38	44→40	50	44	193/277/309	116	270	12	12	32%	8%	65	-0.7	203/293/294	91	284	8	11	29%	9%	67	-0.5	196/291/271	75	277	5	10	28%	10%	57	-0.6
✕Blake Forsythe 2014 · AA	25	36→37	45	50→30	39	184/246/308	124	280	12	4	38%	7%	50	-1.8	197/249/310	113	314	11	5	39%	6%	51	-1.7	182/235/278	96	304	10	0	42%	6%	33	-1.3
✕Ryan Christianson 2007 · AAA	26	34	47→45	49→50	37	183/241/304	121	272	16	9	38%	7%	46	-2.0	200/254/330	130	292	16	9	35%	6%	59	-1.1	160/212/283	123	220	17	0	36%	6%	24	-0.7
✕Jonathan Engelmann 2022 · AA	25	37	45	47→45	41	189/259/305	116	274	13	9	34%	7%	55	-1.4	197/263/332	135	295	15	9	36%	7%	63	-0.8	145/214/301	156	204	19	9	39%	6%	31	-0.8
✕Bryan Arias 2022 · AA	25	38	46→45	48→50	39	192/260/314	122	300	15	13	39%	7%	58	-1.2	190/264/289	99	300	9	14	37%	8%	53	-1.5	174/258/264	90	276	8	17	37%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Edwin Díaz 2021 · AA	25	35→31	45→50	49→40	36	179/242/305	127	289	13	5	41%	7%	48	-1.9	173/227/316	143	304	19	5	47%	6%	44	-2.1	158/222/310	152	235	22	4	42%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	35→33	44→45	51→55	37	184/244/295	111	265	12	16	35%	6%	46	-2.0	200/274/327	127	297	14	15	35%	8%	67	-0.5	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→28	44→45	50→45	36	191/246/302	112	288	12	9	37%	6%	48	-1.9	191/247/329	138	340	16	8	46%	6%	56	-1.3	157/215/303	146	287	19	6	50%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Max Burt 2023 · AAA	26	39	46→45	54→55	36	201/251/328	127	286	14	18	34%	5%	57	-1.2	188/246/300	112	281	12	22	36%	6%	48	-1.9	163/230/248	84	244	7	29	34%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Gift Ngoepe 2015 · AA	25	40	43→45	51→50	37	192/250/302	110	306	10	14	39%	7%	50	-1.8	208/262/322	114	317	10	8	36%	6%	59	-1.1	171/250/283	112	296	11	5	43%	9%	43	-0.9
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	38	40→45	45→50	44	181/274/268	88	287	8	7	37%	9%	53	-1.5	196/278/301	105	300	9	11	35%	8%	62	-0.9	171/260/279	108	256	10	13	35%	9%	46	-1.0