Hayden Birdsong

P San Francisco Giants

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX3 levels	28	25	101	3.31	2.23	34.9%	10.3%	—	K 26.7% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.29
2024	22	MIX3 levels	29	29	129	3.76	3.89	29.3%	12.4%	1.6	K 26.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.32
2025	23	MIX2 levels	31	20	105	5.33	5.18	23.3%	13.6%	-0.3	K 22.0% · BB 13.0% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	7	7	41	4.97	5.06	24.9%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBSF	17	17	101	5.01	5.04	25.1%	13.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBSF	17	17	103	5.05	5.07	25.1%	13.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%70

FB Velo64

K%53

xwOBA vs31

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Landon Knack (age 25) · Burch Smith (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.97

FIP5.06

K%24.9%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CH+0.5 (17%)

CU (15%)

FB-0.7 (44%)

SL-5.3 (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	12	48	23	3	0	0%	1.7	47.9%	6.2%	41.7%	0.0%	3.09	-0.15	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	12	48	23	3	0	0%	1.7	47.9%	6.2%	41.7%	0.0%	3.09	-0.07	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	25	101	427	149	44	6	89%	3.6	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	1.7%	3.31	3.29	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	25	101	427	149	44	6	89%	3.6	34.9%	10.3%	24.6%	1.4%	3.31	2.23	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.76	4.32	+0.9
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.76	4.32	+0.9
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	29.3%	12.4%	16.9%	3.1%	3.76	3.89	+1.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	4.3%	5.33	5.27	-0.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	22.0%	13.0%	9.0%	4.3%	5.33	5.27	-0.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	23.3%	13.6%	9.7%	3.9%	5.33	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	26	138	613	156	80	21	70%	3.7	25.4%	13.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.56	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	7	7	41	173	43	23	6	100%	5.9	24.9%	13.5%	11.3%	3.6%	4.97	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	448	112	60	16	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	3.6%	5.01	5.04	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	109	459	115	62	17	100%	6.0	25.1%	13.6%	11.5%	3.6%	5.05	5.07	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	109	459	114	63	17	100%	6.0	24.9%	13.7%	11.2%	3.7%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	438	107	61	17	100%	6.1	24.3%	13.9%	10.4%	3.9%	5.24	5.32	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	98	412	97	59	17	100%	6.1	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	4.1%	5.41	5.53	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	101	426	107	58	15	100%	5.9	25.1%	13.5%	11.6%	3.6%	5.01	5.04	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	103	435	109	59	16	100%	6.1	25.1%	13.6%	11.5%	3.6%	5.05	5.07	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	17	17	103	435	108	60	16	100%	6.1	24.9%	13.7%	11.2%	3.7%	5.12	5.16	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	99	418	102	58	16	100%	6.2	24.3%	13.9%	10.4%	3.9%	5.24	5.32	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	93	393	93	56	16	100%	5.8	23.6%	14.2%	9.4%	4.1%	5.41	5.53	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	109	636	2717	674	370	100	91%	5.3	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	3.7%	5.08	4.76	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	854	212	116	31	91%	5.3	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	3.7%	5.08	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		95	74	346	1524	394	188	48	78%	3.6	25.9%	12.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.08	4.19	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	43	200	880	228	109	28	78%	3.6	25.9%	12.3%	13.5%	3.1%	4.08	4.19	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Birdsong (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	24.9%	13.5%	3.6%	—	5.09	25.0%	11.4%	323	+0.03	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	74
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	73
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	72
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	71
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	71
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	70
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	70
Brad Peacock R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP-	4.92	21.1%	10.1%	4.2%	.267	4.33	20.6%	10.7%	280	-0.59	2.97	748	69
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	68
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	68
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	68
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	68
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	67
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	67
Jackson Kowar R 2022 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	20.1%	12.0%	4.3%	.356	4.53	20.1%	7.0%	104	-0.72	3.98	489	66
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	66
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	66
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	66
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	65
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	24.8%	13.6%	1.43	5.07
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Mel Queen ('42-'52, -2 WAR*)	2.8	93	25.4%*	11.9%*	1.58*	5.33*
Cliff Markle ('15-'24, -0 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.8%*	12.1%*	1.20*	4.88*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.3	87	20.5%	12.0%	1.48	4.11
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64