Colt Emerson — OGILVIE

Colt EmersonSS Tacoma Rainiers

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .281 / .350

PA219

HR6

SB6

K%31

BB%7

BABIP279

ISO142

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT61

xwOBA

100.247

POWER52

Barrel%

396.7

Avg EV

2287.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4027.0

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Ext	$4M	+2.0	$15M	+$11M
2028	Ext	$8M	+2.5	$17M	+$11M
2029	Ext	$11M	+2.8	$18M	+$10M
2030	Ext	$14M	+2.9	$17M	+$8M
2031	Ext	$17M	+3.0	$16M	+$6M
2032	Ext	$19M	+2.9	$15M	+$5M
2033	Ext	$20M	+2.7	$13M	+$3M
Totals		$94M		$113M	+$55M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	114	98	31	8	0	2	11	27	5	8	0	316	412	459	871	143	420	24	10	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	114	91	34	10	0	2	17	20	5	8	0	374	491	549	1.041	176	464	18	15	460	210	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	3 teams	—	394	342	75	15	1	4	38	93	11	23	2	219	317	304	621	85	286	24	10	281	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	3 teams	—	394	324	91	26	1	4	56	71	11	23	2	281	404	404	808	123	345	18	14	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	600	532	126	25	4	14	45	147	15	14	5	237	314	378	692	141	296	24	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	3 teams	—	600	506	144	28	6	16	71	105	15	14	5	285	389	458	847	174	326	18	12	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AAA	SEA	—	329	295	60	11	2	12	24	114	6	13	4	203	277	376	653	173	281	35	7	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
YTD	21	AAA	SEA	—	329	289	66	13	2	14	30	101	6	13	4	228	314	433	746	204	295	31	9	328	109	+3	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.8
ROS	21	AAA	SEA	100%	219	197	41	8	1	6	16	67	4	6	2	208	281	350	630	142	282	31	7	289	80	-5	+0	+1	+2	+6	0.5
ROS	21	MLB	SEA	100%	219	197	41	8	1	6	16	67	4	6	2	208	281	350	631	142	279	31	7	272	67	-8	+0	+1	+2	+6	0.1
FULL	21	AAA	SEA	—	548	492	101	19	3	18	40	181	10	19	6	205	279	366	644	161	280	33	7	282	74	-16	+1	+1	+6	+16	0.7
TOT	21	AAA	SEA	—	548	492	101	19	3	18	40	181	10	19	6	205	278	366	644	160	280	33	7	289	79	-13	+1	+1	+6	+16	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SEA	82%	660	592	130	25	4	20	51	197	12	18	5	220	295	377	671	157	288	30	8	297	86	-11	+2	+2	+7	+19	1.9
2028	23	MLB	SEA	82%	660	591	133	25	4	21	52	189	12	18	5	225	301	387	688	162	289	29	8	306	92	-6	+2	+2	+7	+19	2.4
2029	24	MLB	SEA	82%	660	590	135	25	4	22	53	185	12	18	5	229	305	397	702	168	290	28	8	311	96	-3	+2	+2	+7	+19	2.7
2030	25	MLB	SEA	82%	660	590	135	25	4	22	54	183	11	18	5	229	305	397	702	168	290	28	8	314	99	-1	+2	+2	+7	+19	2.9
2031	26	MLB	SEA	82%	650	581	134	25	4	22	53	180	11	18	5	231	307	401	708	170	290	28	8	315	100	-0	+2	+2	+7	+18	2.9
2032	27	MLB	SEA	82%	643	573	132	25	3	22	54	178	11	18	5	230	309	400	708	169	290	28	8	316	100	-0	+2	+2	+7	+18	2.9
2033	28	MLB	SEA	82%	635	565	129	24	3	22	54	177	11	17	5	228	308	398	706	170	290	28	9	315	99	-1	+1	+1	+7	+18	2.7
2034	29	MLB	SEA	82%	623	554	126	23	3	21	53	175	11	15	4	227	307	394	701	166	290	28	9	313	98	-2	+1	+0	+7	+18	2.5
2035	30	MLB	SEA	82%	611	544	123	23	3	20	52	173	10	13	4	226	305	390	695	164	289	28	9	311	96	-3	+1	-0	+7	+17	2.2
2036	31	MLB	SEA	82%	596	530	118	22	3	19	51	170	10	11	3	223	303	383	686	160	287	29	9	307	93	-5	+1	-1	+6	+17	1.9
2037	32	MLB	SEA	82%	577	513	112	20	3	18	49	167	10	9	3	218	299	374	673	156	284	29	8	302	89	-7	+1	-2	+6	+16	1.4
2038	33	MLB	SEA	82%	547	487	104	18	3	16	46	161	9	7	2	214	293	361	655	148	280	29	8	295	84	-10	+1	-3	+6	+15	1.0
2027	22	MLB	SEA	82%	541	485	105	20	3	16	41	161	10	15	4	216	291	369	660	153	285	30	8	281	73	-16	+1	+2	+6	+15	0.8
2028	23	MLB	SEA	82%	541	483	107	20	3	17	43	155	10	15	4	222	299	381	679	159	286	29	8	290	80	-12	+1	+2	+6	+15	1.2
2029	24	MLB	SEA	82%	541	484	109	20	3	18	43	152	9	15	4	225	300	390	691	165	287	28	8	295	84	-10	+1	+2	+6	+15	1.5
2030	25	MLB	SEA	82%	541	483	110	20	3	18	44	150	9	15	4	228	304	393	697	166	288	28	8	298	86	-8	+1	+2	+6	+15	1.6
2031	26	MLB	SEA	82%	533	475	109	20	3	18	44	147	9	15	4	229	307	398	705	168	288	28	8	299	87	-8	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.6
2032	27	MLB	SEA	82%	527	469	108	20	3	18	44	146	9	14	4	230	308	401	709	171	288	28	8	299	87	-8	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.6
2033	28	MLB	SEA	82%	521	463	105	19	3	17	44	145	9	14	4	227	306	391	697	164	287	28	8	299	87	-8	+1	+1	+6	+15	1.5
2034	29	MLB	SEA	82%	511	454	103	19	3	17	43	143	9	12	4	227	306	394	701	167	287	28	8	297	85	-8	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.3
2035	30	MLB	SEA	82%	501	444	99	18	2	16	43	142	9	11	3	223	304	381	685	158	286	28	9	295	84	-9	+1	-0	+5	+14	1.1
2036	31	MLB	SEA	82%	489	436	96	18	2	15	42	140	8	9	3	220	300	374	674	154	284	29	9	291	81	-11	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.8
2037	32	MLB	SEA	82%	473	422	90	16	2	14	40	137	8	7	2	213	294	360	654	147	281	29	8	286	77	-12	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.5
2038	33	MLB	SEA	82%	449	401	85	15	2	13	38	132	7	6	2	212	291	357	648	145	277	29	8	280	72	-14	+0	-2	+5	+13	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6387	5696	1267	233	33	203	525	1817	110	154	44	222	300	382	682	159	287	28	8	292	82	-133	+13	+6	+68	+181	13.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	129	24	3	21	53	185	11	16	4	222	299	383	682	160	286	28	8	292	82	-14	+2	+1	+7	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	8849	7879	1784	336	47	271	732	2469	165	231	60	226	305	384	690	158	292	28	8	307	93	-66	+22	+7	+95	+251	31.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	131	25	3	20	54	181	12	17	4	226	306	383	689	157	291	28	8	307	93	-5	+2	+1	+7	+18	2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	79	63	19	6	0	1	11	14	4	4	0	302	430	444	875	143	375	18	14	396	161	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	35	28	15	4	0	1	6	6	1	4	0	536	629	786	1.414	250	667	17	17	605	321	+9	+1	—	—	+1	1.1
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	139	120	27	5	0	2	15	30	4	9	1	225	331	317	648	92	284	22	11	303	90	-2	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	193	150	44	12	1	2	35	27	6	6	1	293	445	427	872	133	341	14	18	395	161	+13	+1	—	—	+5	2.0
2024	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	62	54	20	9	0	0	6	14	1	8	0	370	443	537	980	167	488	23	10	426	184	+6	+2	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	20	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	27	22	8	2	0	2	3	6	1	1	1	364	462	727	1.189	364	400	22	11	488	232	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	161	142	40	10	1	3	14	31	4	7	0	282	362	430	792	148	339	19	9	354	129	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.1
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	412	342	96	16	5	11	54	68	10	6	4	281	394	453	847	173	316	17	13	375	145	+21	-0	—	—	+12	3.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,629	216	157	226	300	390	+71	+24	21.7	18.1
	/162	664	22	16	226	300	390	+7.1	+2.4	2.2	pk7: 14
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colt Emerson (OGILVIE)	21	54→61	47→52	50	60	205/278/366	160	280	18	19	33%	7%	79	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Corey Patterson 2001 · MLB	21	45→54	53→55	47→60	46	233/302/403	170	288	21	12	27%	8%	98	+1.6	245/288/393	148	297	17	16	23%	5%	89	+1.0	265/306/437	171	323	18	24	23%	5%	103	+1.8
✕Dilson Herrera 2015 · MLB	21	51→57	47→50	50	42	251/298/394	143	320	14	12	26%	6%	93	+1.3	244/293/381	137	303	15	12	24%	6%	88	+0.9	235/285/368	133	288	16	10	24%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Alek Thomas 2022 · AAA	22	50→51	49→50	50	44	245/305/405	160	324	14	12	28%	7%	99	+1.7	236/286/374	138	284	13	11	21%	6%	83	+0.6	232/279/363	131	272	13	11	19%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→52	50→55	52→50	44	239/300/400	161	302	18	13	26%	7%	96	+1.5	239/305/397	158	301	17	7	25%	8%	98	+1.6	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→53	46→60	48→50	49	229/305/362	133	299	13	13	27%	9%	89	+0.9	214/286/331	117	295	10	13	29%	9%	72	-0.2	245/312/443	198	315	23	11	28%	8%	108	+1.4
●Dylan Carlson 2020 · AAA	21	44→54	49→55	49→50	45	225/291/378	153	285	17	11	27%	8%	87	+0.8	240/310/400	160	303	16	8	25%	8%	101	+1.8	244/329/393	150	298	14	4	22%	9%	103	+1.5
●Gavin Lux 2020 · MLB	22	50→60	50	49→50	45	251/305/411	160	314	18	11	26%	7%	101	+1.8	254/319/403	149	320	15	9	24%	9%	105	+2.1	267/342/389	122	338	9	5	22%	10%	108	+1.8
●Colby Rasmus 2008 · AA	21	44→54	54→60	53→50	46	229/296/411	182	276	21	15	26%	8%	98	+1.6	235/303/399	164	282	19	12	23%	8%	98	+1.6	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	45→50	52→55	47	239/299/361	122	305	12	14	25%	8%	85	+0.7	235/292/364	129	293	13	23	23%	7%	83	+0.6	228/280/351	122	287	13	26	24%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2018 · AA	22	47	47→50	49→50	42	232/288/370	138	315	14	10	30%	7%	83	+0.6	231/292/374	143	314	15	12	29%	7%	85	+0.7	226/290/370	144	302	16	12	29%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Reid Brignac 2007 · AA	21	47→51	49→50	46→50	40	238/282/386	149	306	17	8	28%	5%	85	+0.7	229/272/368	139	283	14	9	24%	5%	76	+0.0	234/274/359	125	291	11	6	23%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	47→50	48→50	47→45	43	235/289/374	140	300	16	7	27%	6%	85	+0.7	228/311/352	124	302	14	5	27%	9%	89	+1.0	218/316/334	116	287	14	3	27%	10%	83	+0.3
●Rougned Odor 2015 · MLB	21	49→52	45→60	49→50	41	240/279/368	128	282	12	14	20%	4%	79	+0.3	248/291/435	187	279	22	12	20%	4%	102	+1.9	241/285/445	204	266	26	12	21%	4%	99	+1.7
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	49→54	49→55	53→45	44	238/301/393	155	334	16	8	32%	8%	95	+1.4	255/311/423	168	318	20	5	25%	7%	106	+2.2	260/320/425	165	316	20	4	23%	8%	108	+2.0
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2010 · AA	22	49→50	48→60	51→50	43	238/303/389	151	330	13	11	31%	7%	95	+1.4	237/291/383	146	332	13	10	31%	7%	88	+0.9	219/300/412	193	303	21	11	33%	10%	95	+0.8
✕Thomas Saggese 2023 · AA	21	46→56	47→50	52→50	39	226/276/364	138	315	14	11	32%	6%	76	+0.1	234/285/377	143	318	15	9	30%	5%	84	+0.6	235/288/373	137	319	15	8	30%	5%	82	+0.4
●Lonnie Chisenhall 2010 · AA	21	42→52	52→55	47→45	41	221/267/386	165	265	20	4	25%	5%	79	+0.3	237/285/387	150	280	17	4	22%	5%	86	+0.8	264/318/425	161	306	17	4	19%	6%	107	+1.6
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→52	46→55	48→50	52	224/303/356	132	269	13	12	22%	9%	86	+0.8	237/303/415	178	282	22	11	24%	8%	102	+1.8	230/299/411	181	267	23	11	23%	8%	96	+1.1
●Nomar Mazara 2016 · AAA	21	46→51	46→55	45→40	44	228/287/358	129	293	14	3	26%	7%	79	+0.3	251/312/404	153	297	19	2	21%	8%	102	+1.9	253/317/430	176	296	21	3	22%	8%	106	+1.9
✕Jason Martin 2018 · AA	22	42→49	48→60	48→50	39	213/261/358	145	293	15	13	32%	6%	68	-0.5	229/276/372	143	298	14	12	27%	6%	78	+0.2	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8