Colt Emerson

SS Seattle Mariners

Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.779 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANExtFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A+/A/INTL3 orgs	394	.281/.404/.404	4	23	102	—	.237/.340/.326
2025	20	AAA/AA/A+SEA	600	.285/.389/.458	16	14	104	—	.250/.333/.391
2026	21	AAASEA	169	.255/.349/.469	7	10	91	—	.227/.301/.387
2026	21	MLBSEA	241	.190/.248/.335	8	3	63	-0.1
2027PROJ	22	MLBSEA	214	.200/.272/.341	6	5	75	0.2
2028PROJ82% MLB	23	MLBSEA	391	.204/.277/.352	12	10	79	0.5
2029PROJ82% MLB	24	MLBSEA	407	.206/.279/.358	13	10	81	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2033Service0.779First FA2034

2027Ext$4M2028Ext$8M2029Ext$11M2030Ext$14M2031Ext$17M2032Ext$19M2033Ext$20M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Speed40

Barrel%25

Avg EV19

xwOBA10

CompsBrayan Rocchio (age 22) · Corey Patterson (age 22) · Reid Brignac (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .272 / .341

PA214

HR6

SB5

K%30

BB%7

BABIP261

ISO140

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$60M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.196

POWER

Barrel%

255.0

Avg EV

1986.7

SPEED

Sprint

4027.0

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.779 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.4	$2M	-$2M
2028	Ext	$8M	+0.5	$2M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$11M	+0.7	$2M	-$7M
2030	Ext	$14M	+0.7	$2M	-$8M
2031	Ext	$17M	+0.7	$2M	-$9M
2032	Ext	$19M	+0.7	$2M	-$9M
2033	Ext	$20M	+0.5	$1M	-$10M
Totals		$94M		$13M	-$50M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$50M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	79	63	19	6	0	1	11	14	4	4	0	302	430	444	875	143	375	18	14	396	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	35	28	15	4	0	1	6	6	1	4	0	536	629	786	1.414	250	667	17	17	605	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	139	120	27	5	0	2	15	30	4	9	1	225	331	317	648	92	284	22	11	303	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	193	150	44	12	1	2	35	27	6	6	1	293	445	427	872	133	341	14	18	395	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	62	54	20	9	0	0	6	14	1	8	0	370	443	537	980	167	488	23	10	426	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	27	22	8	2	0	2	3	6	1	1	1	364	462	727	1.189	364	400	22	11	488	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	161	142	40	10	1	3	14	31	4	7	0	282	362	430	792	148	339	19	9	354	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	412	342	96	16	5	11	54	68	10	6	4	281	394	453	847	173	316	17	13	375	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	259	63	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2026	21	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	169	145	37	8	1	7	17	46	4	10	3	255	349	469	818	214	323	27	10	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	259	61	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	79	67	19	5	0	1	8	19	4	4	0	284	392	403	795	119	369	24	10	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	35	30	12	3	0	1	4	9	1	4	0	400	486	600	1.086	200	542	26	11	453	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	139	125	23	4	0	1	10	40	4	9	1	184	266	240	506	56	260	29	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	193	160	44	10	1	2	25	37	6	6	1	275	393	388	780	112	331	19	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	27	24	7	2	0	1	1	7	1	1	1	292	346	500	846	208	357	26	4	421	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	161	146	38	9	1	3	10	36	4	7	0	260	325	397	722	137	319	22	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	412	357	87	14	4	9	39	96	10	6	4	244	335	381	716	137	296	23	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	262	63	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2026	21	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	169	150	34	7	1	5	12	55	4	10	3	227	301	387	688	160	315	33	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	114	97	31	8	0	2	12	27	5	8	0	320	421	464	885	144	426	24	11	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	114	91	34	10	0	2	17	20	5	8	0	374	491	549	1.041	176	464	18	15	460	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	338	79	17	1	4	42	92	11	23	2	234	338	325	663	92	306	23	11	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	394	324	91	26	1	4	56	71	11	23	2	281	404	404	808	123	345	18	14	367	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	526	134	26	5	14	51	139	15	14	5	255	338	403	741	148	315	23	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	600	506	144	28	6	16	71	105	15	14	5	285	389	458	847	174	326	18	12	374	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	410	371	77	13	2	13	27	138	6	13	4	208	272	358	631	151	287	34	7	279	75	-12	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2026	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	410	366	79	14	2	15	32	129	6	13	4	216	290	388	678	172	284	31	8	299	75	-12	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	114	96	31	8	0	2	12	27	5	8	0	323	421	469	890	146	422	24	11	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	338	79	17	1	4	42	92	11	23	2	234	338	325	663	92	301	23	11	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	529	134	26	5	14	51	139	15	14	5	253	338	401	739	147	305	23	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	410	374	77	13	2	13	27	138	6	13	4	206	272	356	628	150	281	34	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	338	79	17	1	4	42	92	11	23	2	234	338	325	663	92	301	23	11	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	529	134	26	5	14	51	139	15	14	5	253	338	401	739	147	305	23	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	410	374	77	13	2	13	27	138	6	13	4	206	272	356	628	150	281	34	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	468	423	85	15	2	14	35	141	7	11	3	202	274	347	621	145	263	30	7	279	75	-14	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	214	193	39	7	1	6	16	64	3	5	1	200	272	341	614	141	261	30	7	276	75	-6	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	477	431	88	16	2	15	36	141	7	12	3	206	279	358	637	152	264	30	8	285	79	-12	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	496	448	92	16	2	16	38	145	7	12	3	208	281	364	646	156	265	29	8	288	81	-11	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	502	451	95	17	2	17	39	146	7	12	3	209	282	367	649	158	266	29	8	290	82	-11	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	502	451	95	17	2	17	39	146	7	12	3	209	283	366	649	158	265	29	8	290	82	-11	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	496	447	92	16	2	16	39	145	7	11	3	208	282	364	646	156	265	29	8	289	81	-11	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	487	439	91	16	2	16	38	144	7	9	3	206	280	360	639	153	264	30	8	286	80	-12	+1	+1	+5	+11	0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	473	426	87	15	2	15	37	141	7	7	2	204	277	354	631	150	263	30	8	283	77	-13	+1	+1	+5	+10	0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	459	415	83	14	2	14	35	138	6	5	2	201	274	346	621	145	262	30	8	278	75	-14	+0	-0	+5	+10	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	391	352	72	13	2	12	30	115	6	10	3	204	277	352	629	149	262	29	8	282	79	-10	+1	+2	+4	+8	0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	407	367	75	13	2	13	31	119	6	10	3	206	279	358	638	153	263	29	8	285	81	-9	+1	+2	+4	+9	0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	412	371	76	13	2	13	32	120	6	10	3	206	280	361	641	154	263	29	8	287	82	-9	+1	+2	+4	+9	0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	412	371	76	13	2	13	32	120	6	10	3	206	281	360	641	154	263	29	8	287	82	-9	+1	+2	+4	+9	0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	407	366	75	13	2	13	32	119	6	9	3	205	280	358	638	153	262	29	8	285	81	-9	+1	+2	+4	+9	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	399	359	73	13	2	12	31	118	6	8	2	204	278	354	632	150	262	30	8	283	80	-10	+1	+1	+4	+9	0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	388	350	71	12	2	12	30	116	5	6	2	202	275	348	623	146	261	30	8	280	77	-10	+0	+1	+4	+8	0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	376	339	68	12	2	11	29	113	5	4	2	199	272	341	613	142	259	30	8	276	75	-11	+0	-0	+4	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3433	3096	628	108	17	107	262	1023	48	70	22	203	275	352	628	150	263	30	8	281	84	-88	+5	+10	+39	+74	4.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	118	20	3	20	50	194	9	13	4	201	274	348	623	147	261	30	8	281	84	-17	+1	+2	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5624	5033	1083	198	25	165	449	1606	95	143	34	215	292	363	655	148	279	29	8	292	84	-111	+8	+13	+48	+94	5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	125	23	3	19	52	186	11	17	4	215	292	363	654	148	278	29	8	292	84	-17	+1	+2	+7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 169 PAwOBA .347 → .303 (−44)K% 27.2% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.22%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.47%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.86%
HBP% /PA	2.37%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.34%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	21.75%
Doubles /BIP	8.08%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	7.39%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	7.07%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .347 → .303; ISO .214 → .170; BABIP .323 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 412 PAwOBA .370 → .317 (−54)K% 16.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.50%	÷0.957	×1.350	—	—	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.86%	÷0.999	×0.710	—	×1.042	9.52%
HBP% /PA	2.43%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	2.05%
Singles /BIP	23.36%	÷1.001	×0.910	×1.018	×1.042	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	5.84%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.018	×1.042	5.38%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.018	×1.042	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	4.01%	÷1.036	×0.830	—	×1.042	3.35%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .370 → .317; ISO .173 → .143; BABIP .316 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 161 PAwOBA .344 → .319 (−25)K% 19.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.25%	÷1.061	×1.220	—	—	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.07%	÷0.950	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.25%
HBP% /PA	2.48%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	2.27%
Singles /BIP	23.42%	÷0.998	×0.920	×0.971	×1.050	22.01%
Doubles /BIP	9.01%	÷0.914	×0.840	×0.971	×1.050	8.45%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.018	×0.940	×0.971	×1.050	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷0.800	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.84%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .344 → .319; ISO .148 → .147; BABIP .339 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 27 PAwOBA .485 → .421 (−63)K% 22.2% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.035	×1.200	—	—	25.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.25%
HBP% /PA	3.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	3.66%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.019	×0.930	—	×1.050	23.97%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.985	×0.830	—	×1.050	11.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷1.204	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.63%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .485 → .421; ISO .364 → .272; BABIP .400 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AModesto Nuts · 193 PAwOBA .390 → .344 (−46)K% 14.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.99%	÷0.993	×1.360	—	—	19.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.13%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.045	12.94%
HBP% /PA	3.11%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.53%
Singles /BIP	23.58%	÷0.970	×0.920	×1.039	×1.045	24.26%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.076	×0.830	×1.039	×1.045	8.17%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.039	×1.045	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	1.63%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .390 → .344; ISO .133 → .119; BABIP .341 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 139 PAwOBA .295 → .237 (−59)K% 21.6% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.58%	÷1.003	×1.350	—	—	29.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.082	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.44%
HBP% /PA	2.88%	—	×0.810	—	×1.050	2.45%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.992	×0.910	×0.981	×1.050	21.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.040	×0.830	×0.981	×1.050	4.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.904	×0.820	×0.981	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷1.175	×0.830	—	×1.050	1.65%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .295 → .237; ISO .092 → .067; BABIP .284 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 79 PAwOBA .386 → .346 (−40)K% 17.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.72%	÷1.026	×1.360	—	—	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.92%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.96%
HBP% /PA	5.06%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.15%
Singles /BIP	24.49%	÷0.974	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	25.52%
Doubles /BIP	12.24%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	10.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.04%	÷0.883	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .386 → .346; ISO .143 → .129; BABIP .375 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Mariners · 35 PAwOBA .590 → .453 (−136)K% 17.1% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.14%	÷0.992	×1.440	—	—	24.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.14%	÷0.989	×0.620	—	×1.022	10.99%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.10%
Singles /BIP	45.45%	÷0.987	×0.820	—	×1.022	38.60%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.993	×0.720	—	×1.022	13.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.945	×0.780	—	×1.022	3.83%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .590 → .453; ISO .250 → .194; BABIP .667 → .542. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#4Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.5	3,670	117	75	206	275	359	+39	+20	5.4	5.2
/162	664	21	14	+7.1	+3.6	1.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colt Emerson (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	200/272/344	144	263	7	6	30%	7%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brayan Rocchio 2023 · AAA	22	47→56	47→45	46→50	44	233/294/368	135	288	14	13	24%	6%	87	+0.4	234/302/353	119	283	9	16	20%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
●Corey Patterson 2002 · MLB	22	44→54	49→55	52→60	43	226/283/367	141	268	18	14	24%	6%	83	+0.1	258/294/419	161	313	17	20	23%	4%	99	+1.2	263/300/434	170	320	18	24	23%	4%	105	+1.6
✕Reid Brignac 2008 · AA	22	47→54	49→55	49→50	43	240/288/392	151	290	17	10	24%	6%	90	+0.6	239/280/373	134	296	13	8	23%	5%	82	+0.0	242/280/370	128	301	12	6	23%	4%	81	-0.1
✕Jason Martin 2018 · AA	22	43→52	49→60	47→50	41	221/271/374	153	296	16	13	31%	6%	80	-0.2	235/282/374	139	306	13	12	26%	6%	83	+0.1	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Marcelo Mayer 2024 · AA	21	42→47	49→50	50	43	213/279/366	153	297	17	12	33%	8%	81	-0.1	235/289/373	138	304	15	10	26%	7%	86	+0.3	240/295/371	130	302	14	9	24%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2018 · AA	22	48→50	47→50	50	43	237/295/379	142	319	15	10	30%	7%	90	+0.6	234/295/375	141	317	14	12	29%	7%	89	+0.5	230/294/371	141	309	14	12	29%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Angel Martínez 2024 · AAA	22	47→50	45→50	49→50	45	230/291/357	127	290	12	10	25%	7%	83	+0.1	235/287/374	139	287	14	11	23%	6%	86	+0.3	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Nick Yorke 2024 · AA	22	48→57	46→50	50→55	43	236/293/366	130	314	14	13	29%	7%	86	+0.3	248/304/358	110	328	11	17	26%	7%	88	+0.4	250/308/351	102	325	10	18	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2022 · AAA	23	44→49	52→55	50	40	229/273/400	170	296	20	15	30%	6%	86	+0.3	228/283/373	145	288	16	15	26%	7%	84	+0.2	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Eric Duncan 2007 · AAA	22	44	48→50	47→45	46	221/286/361	140	279	15	5	26%	8%	82	+0.0	212/264/330	118	266	12	5	24%	6%	67	-1.1	214/252/344	129	272	15	5	27%	4%	64	-0.8
✕Jason Pridie 2006 · AA	22	43→53	46→50	55	39	215/265/350	135	303	13	16	33%	6%	72	-0.7	235/269/348	113	299	9	17	24%	4%	72	-0.7	249/278/382	133	310	11	22	23%	3%	81	-0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Noelvi Marte 2024 · MLB	22	50→55	48→50	52→55	47	247/311/388	140	308	15	19	24%	8%	98	+1.2	242/287/373	131	305	14	18	25%	5%	85	+0.2	241/280/371	130	301	15	19	24%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Drew Romo 2024 · AAA	22	46→51	44→50	49→50	43	226/272/344	118	281	11	12	24%	6%	73	-0.6	225/274/353	128	286	14	6	25%	5%	76	-0.4	216/270/344	129	272	15	4	26%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Javier Herrera 2008 · AAA	23	46→53	48→50	48→50	40	228/286/368	139	302	16	14	29%	6%	84	+0.2	232/282/366	134	315	14	12	30%	6%	82	-0.0	240/295/373	133	325	13	14	29%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2024 · MLB	22	49	48→55	50	40	247/286/391	145	308	15	14	25%	5%	89	+0.5	237/274/386	149	305	16	8	27%	5%	84	+0.1	229/267/373	144	293	16	7	27%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	38→47	50	49→45	40	199/259/356	156	271	17	9	33%	6%	72	-0.7	217/277/354	137	301	14	7	31%	7%	78	-0.3	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5

Colt Emerson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps