Colt Emerson — OGILVIE

Colt EmersonSS Seattle Mariners

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 273 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA410

HR0

SB13

K%28

BB%8

BABIP279

ISO134

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 62 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT62

xAVG

100.196

POWER52

Barrel%

255.0

Avg EV

1986.7

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4027.0

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%▼▼35% over 81 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%6%▼▼2% over 81 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.107▼.052 over 77 AB (60d) · proj .134

HR/BB3.2%·2.0% over 50 BBE (60d) · proj 3.8%

BABIP.287·.245 over 49 BIP (60d) · proj .289

SLASH.205/.262/.313▼▼proj .220/.293/.354

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.9	$3M	-$0.3M
2028	Ext	$8M	+1.2	$8M	+$2M
2029	Ext	$11M	+1.4	$9M	+$0.9M
2030	Ext	$14M	+1.5	$9M	-$0.3M
2031	Ext	$17M	+1.5	$8M	-$2M
2032	Ext	$19M	+1.5	$8M	-$2M
2033	Ext	$20M	+1.4	$7M	-$3M
Totals		$94M		$52M	-$6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	A	Modesto Nuts	—	79	63	19	6	0	1	11	14	4	4	0	302	430	444	875	143	375	18	14	396	154	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.8
2023	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	35	28	15	4	0	1	6	6	1	4	0	536	629	786	1.414	250	667	17	17	605	296	+8	+1	—	—	+1	1.0
2024	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	139	120	27	5	0	2	15	30	4	9	1	225	331	317	648	92	284	22	11	303	91	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	193	150	44	12	1	2	35	27	6	6	1	293	445	427	872	133	341	14	18	395	154	+12	+1	—	—	+4	1.8
2024	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	62	54	20	9	0	0	6	14	1	8	0	370	443	537	980	167	488	23	10	426	175	+6	+2	—	—	+1	0.9
2025	20	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	27	22	8	2	0	2	3	6	1	1	1	364	462	727	1.189	364	400	22	11	488	216	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	161	142	40	10	1	3	14	31	4	7	0	282	362	430	792	148	339	19	9	354	125	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	20	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	412	342	96	16	5	11	54	68	10	6	4	281	394	453	847	173	316	17	13	375	140	+20	-0	—	—	+9	2.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	79	67	18	5	0	1	8	18	4	4	0	269	380	388	768	119	348	23	10	335	113	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	35	30	12	3	0	1	4	9	1	4	0	400	486	600	1.086	200	529	26	11	445	187	+4	+1	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	139	126	20	3	0	1	9	42	4	9	1	159	237	206	444	48	235	30	6	212	30	-12	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	193	160	42	10	1	2	25	36	6	6	1	263	382	375	757	112	313	19	13	334	112	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2025	20	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	27	24	7	2	0	1	1	7	1	1	1	292	346	500	846	208	331	26	4	399	156	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	161	147	37	9	1	3	9	36	4	7	0	252	312	388	700	136	311	22	6	309	95	-1	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	20	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	412	363	82	13	4	9	33	99	10	6	4	226	308	358	666	132	270	24	8	288	81	-9	-0	—	—	+9	-0.1
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	114	98	30	8	0	2	11	27	5	8	0	306	404	449	852	143	406	24	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	114	91	34	10	0	2	17	20	5	8	0	374	491	549	1.041	176	464	18	15	460	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	341	75	16	1	4	39	93	11	23	2	220	320	308	628	88	287	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	394	324	91	26	1	4	56	71	11	23	2	281	404	404	808	123	345	18	14	367	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	533	125	24	4	13	44	142	15	14	5	235	311	368	679	133	290	24	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	600	506	144	28	6	16	71	105	15	14	5	285	389	458	847	174	326	18	12	374	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	114	97	30	8	0	2	11	27	5	8	0	309	404	454	857	144	404	24	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	341	75	16	1	4	39	93	11	23	2	220	320	308	628	88	280	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	536	125	24	4	13	44	142	15	14	5	233	311	366	676	132	284	24	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	114	97	30	8	0	2	11	27	5	8	0	309	404	454	857	144	404	24	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	394	341	75	16	1	4	39	93	11	23	2	220	320	308	628	88	280	24	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	600	536	125	24	4	13	44	142	15	14	5	233	311	366	676	132	284	24	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	MLB MLE	SEA	—	410	372	74	13	2	13	26	142	6	13	4	199	262	349	612	151	277	35	6	268	68	-16	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	21	MLB RAW	SEA	—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	259	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
YTD	21	AAA RAW	SEA	—	169	145	37	8	1	7	17	46	4	10	3	255	349	469	818	214	323	27	10	357	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	MLB RAW	SEA	—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	259	61	-11	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB MLE	SEA	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	282	—	—	280	76	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
ROS	21	MLB CTX	SEA	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	MLB A+C	SEA	—	241	221	42	6	1	8	15	83	2	3	1	190	248	335	583	145	258	34	6	259	68	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
TOT	21	MLB MLE	SEA	—	410	372	74	13	2	13	26	142	6	13	4	199	262	349	612	151	277	35	6	268	68	-16	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	643	582	124	22	3	20	46	198	10	16	5	213	282	364	646	151	283	31	7	289	82	-14	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	648	585	127	23	3	21	48	195	10	16	5	217	288	374	662	157	284	30	7	296	86	-11	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	660	595	130	23	3	22	49	196	11	16	5	218	290	378	668	160	285	30	7	300	89	-8	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	660	594	131	23	3	23	50	195	11	16	5	221	293	386	679	165	285	30	8	303	91	-7	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	650	584	130	23	3	23	50	192	11	16	5	223	296	390	687	168	285	30	8	304	92	-6	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	643	578	128	22	3	23	50	190	10	16	5	221	295	389	684	168	285	30	8	304	92	-6	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	635	570	126	22	3	22	50	189	10	15	4	221	295	386	681	165	285	30	8	303	91	-6	+1	+2	+7	+14	1.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	623	559	122	21	3	21	49	187	10	13	4	218	293	379	672	161	284	30	8	302	90	-7	+1	+1	+7	+13	1.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	611	548	120	21	3	21	48	184	10	12	4	219	294	383	677	164	284	30	8	299	89	-8	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	596	535	116	20	3	20	47	182	9	10	3	217	291	378	669	161	282	31	8	295	86	-10	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	577	518	108	18	2	18	45	178	9	8	2	208	283	355	638	147	279	31	8	290	83	-12	+1	-1	+6	+13	0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	547	491	102	17	2	17	43	172	8	6	2	208	282	354	637	147	275	31	8	284	78	-14	+0	-2	+6	+12	0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	527	476	101	18	3	16	38	162	8	13	4	212	282	363	645	151	281	31	7	274	82	-11	+1	+2	+6	+11	0.9
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	531	478	103	18	3	17	39	160	9	13	4	215	287	372	659	157	281	30	7	281	86	-9	+1	+2	+6	+12	1.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	541	487	106	18	3	18	40	161	9	13	4	218	289	378	667	160	282	30	7	285	89	-7	+1	+2	+6	+12	1.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	541	486	106	18	3	18	41	160	9	13	4	218	291	379	670	160	283	30	8	288	91	-6	+1	+2	+6	+12	1.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	533	478	105	18	3	18	41	157	9	13	4	220	294	383	676	163	283	29	8	289	92	-5	+1	+2	+6	+12	1.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	527	472	104	18	3	18	41	156	9	13	4	220	295	386	681	165	283	30	8	289	92	-5	+1	+2	+6	+11	1.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	521	467	103	18	3	18	41	155	8	12	4	221	295	388	682	167	282	30	8	288	91	-5	+1	+1	+6	+11	1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	511	458	99	17	2	17	40	153	8	11	3	216	291	373	664	157	282	30	8	287	90	-6	+1	+1	+5	+11	1.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	501	448	96	17	2	16	40	151	8	10	3	214	290	368	659	154	281	30	8	284	89	-7	+1	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	489	439	94	16	2	16	39	149	8	8	2	214	290	369	659	155	279	30	8	281	86	-8	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.8
2037	32	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	473	426	89	15	2	15	37	146	7	7	2	209	283	359	642	150	276	31	8	276	83	-10	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	449	404	82	13	2	13	35	141	7	5	1	203	278	342	620	139	272	31	8	270	78	-12	+1	-2	+5	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6144	5519	1188	204	31	200	472	1851	99	131	39	215	289	372	661	157	282	30	8	283	88	-90	+11	+10	+66	+133	13.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	126	22	3	21	50	196	10	14	4	216	288	372	660	156	284	30	8	283	88	-10	+1	+1	+7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	8601	7711	1694	303	39	270	669	2520	150	205	56	220	295	374	669	154	287	29	8	298	88	-110	+12	+12	+80	+162	16.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	128	23	3	20	51	190	11	15	4	220	295	372	667	153	286	29	8	298	88	-10	+1	+1	+7	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#3Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	10.0	6,658	219	139	217	287	376	+71	+26	15.7	13.3
/162	664	22	14	+7.1	+2.6	1.6	pk7: 11
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colt Emerson (OGILVIE)	21	56→62	48→52	51→50	58	207/275/346	139	282	7	7	31%	7%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shed Long Jr. 2018 · AA	22	47→49	47→50	50	43	234/291/373	139	314	14	10	30%	7%	86	+0.3	231/292/368	137	313	14	12	29%	7%	86	+0.3	226/290/362	136	303	14	12	29%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Carter Kieboom 2019 · AA	21	47→53	47→50	47→45	44	235/291/371	136	301	15	7	26%	7%	86	+0.3	227/310/349	122	298	13	5	27%	9%	89	+0.5	216/314/329	113	281	13	3	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Reid Brignac 2007 · AA	21	47→52	49→50	46→50	40	238/282/386	148	306	17	8	28%	5%	86	+0.3	228/270/359	131	282	13	9	23%	5%	76	-0.4	233/272/351	118	291	10	6	23%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Thomas Saggese 2023 · AA	21	46→56	47→50	52→50	39	228/279/367	139	320	14	11	32%	6%	81	-0.1	235/285/371	136	316	14	9	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/288/363	129	315	14	8	29%	5%	82	-0.0
✕Dilson Herrera 2015 · MLB	21	51→57	46→50	50	42	248/296/379	131	317	13	12	25%	6%	90	+0.6	241/290/369	128	301	13	12	23%	6%	85	+0.2	232/281/356	124	286	14	10	23%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	47→53	50→55	53→50	44	238/298/398	160	301	17	13	26%	7%	95	+1.0	240/306/401	161	301	18	7	25%	8%	99	+1.3	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Brayan Rocchio 2022 · AA	21	45→53	46→45	50	39	223/279/354	131	293	13	16	28%	5%	78	-0.3	228/292/347	119	279	11	15	21%	7%	81	-0.1	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Alek Thomas 2023 · MLB	23	49→54	47→50	48→50	46	245/300/391	146	292	14	11	21%	6%	94	+0.9	238/285/374	136	286	14	11	21%	6%	84	+0.2	233/278/374	141	282	14	12	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Jason Martin 2018 · AA	22	43→49	48→60	47→50	40	217/266/366	149	290	16	13	31%	6%	76	-0.4	227/272/356	129	296	12	12	26%	6%	75	-0.5	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA	22	49→51	44→50	52→55	47	239/299/356	117	304	11	14	25%	8%	86	+0.3	236/293/360	124	294	12	23	23%	7%	84	+0.2	230/283/348	118	290	11	26	24%	6%	76	-0.3
●Corey Patterson 2001 · MLB	21	45→55	53→55	47→60	46	233/302/403	170	288	21	12	27%	8%	99	+1.2	245/288/393	148	297	17	16	23%	5%	91	+0.6	265/306/437	171	323	18	24	23%	5%	103	+1.4
✕Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→52	46→60	48→50	49	230/304/365	135	294	13	13	26%	9%	90	+0.6	213/284/325	112	292	9	13	28%	8%	73	-0.6	243/310/437	193	313	22	11	28%	8%	105	+1.0
✕Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	48→54	47→55	53→45	45	235/299/375	141	327	14	8	31%	8%	90	+0.6	251/308/406	155	312	17	5	24%	7%	101	+1.4	256/316/410	154	310	18	4	23%	8%	102	+1.3
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2010 · AA	22	49→50	47→60	51→50	43	238/304/389	150	330	13	11	30%	7%	95	+1.0	239/293/383	144	332	13	10	30%	7%	90	+0.6	220/302/410	191	303	20	11	32%	10%	96	+0.6
✕Blake DeWitt 2007 · AA	21	46→55	45→50	42→40	44	229/275/350	121	275	14	4	22%	6%	76	-0.4	241/292/372	131	277	13	4	18%	6%	86	+0.3	245/319/368	123	281	10	3	16%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Angel Martínez 2023 · AA	21	44→47	45→50	48→50	47	218/285/345	126	278	11	11	25%	8%	78	-0.3	223/280/346	123	279	12	10	24%	6%	76	-0.4	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Colson Montgomery 2023 · AA	21	47	43→55	44→45	45	227/300/335	109	306	10	3	28%	8%	82	-0.0	209/296/345	136	288	15	5	31%	9%	83	+0.1	191/279/346	155	261	19	4	33%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Hank Conger 2009 · A	21	47→57	50	46→45	40	240/273/391	152	283	17	6	23%	4%	84	+0.2	246/299/370	124	287	13	3	18%	7%	88	+0.5	245/304/364	119	281	12	1	17%	8%	88	+0.3
●Brett Baty 2022 · AA	22	52→56	47→50	46→45	44	248/314/389	141	351	15	8	32%	8%	99	+1.3	246/312/399	153	325	19	5	29%	8%	101	+1.4	237/306/388	151	302	21	3	28%	8%	93	+0.7
✕Jordan Schafer 2009 · AA	22	49→54	46→50	51→65	42	236/290/380	144	322	12	14	29%	7%	88	+0.4	217/280/312	95	299	7	18	28%	8%	68	-1.0	215/294/295	80	290	5	53	26%	10%	65	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps