Dean Curley

SS Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #783MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP44ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	35	.242/.286/.273	0	1	11	—	.176/.200/.206
2026	22	AACLE	198	.265/.369/.441	7	3	81	—	.215/.298/.339
2026	22	A+CLE	329	.251/.458/.451	10	9	105	—	.198/.363/.345
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBCLE	2	.212/.325/.355	0	0	96	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCLE	231	.216/.328/.367	7	4	100	0.6
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBCLE	347	.219/.329/.375	10	6	102	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$6M2034Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%88

Z-Con%79

wRC+78

wOBA73

BB%71

ISO66

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsDerek Norris (age 23) · Bo Naylor (age 23) · Miguel Amaya (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .325 / .355

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%13

BABIP297

ISO148

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$37M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	198	170	45	9	0	7	25	64	3	3	4	265	369	441	810	176	384	32	13	364	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	329	235	59	15	1	10	82	92	8	9	1	251	458	451	910	200	360	28	25	409	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	198	177	38	7	0	5	18	78	3	3	4	215	298	339	637	124	354	39	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	329	258	51	12	1	8	59	117	8	9	1	198	363	345	708	147	307	36	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	316	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	435	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	352	692	145	332	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	527	405	104	24	1	17	107	156	11	12	5	257	424	447	871	190	370	30	20	392	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	434	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	353	693	145	325	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	434	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	353	693	145	325	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	511	433	92	18	2	14	66	161	7	9	3	211	325	355	680	144	296	32	13	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	212	325	355	680	143	297	50	0	310	96	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	42%	544	462	100	19	2	16	69	168	8	10	4	216	328	368	696	152	297	31	13	315	100	-0	+0	-3	+6	+12	1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	62%	559	476	104	20	2	17	70	170	8	10	4	219	329	376	705	157	297	30	13	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	71%	564	481	106	20	2	17	70	169	8	10	4	221	329	380	709	159	297	30	12	320	103	+2	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	563	481	106	20	2	17	69	167	8	10	4	221	328	379	707	158	296	30	12	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	75%	558	479	106	20	2	17	67	165	7	9	4	221	326	376	702	155	295	30	12	317	100	+0	+0	-3	+6	+12	1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	551	473	104	20	2	16	66	164	7	8	4	218	323	370	693	152	293	30	12	313	98	-1	+0	-3	+6	+12	1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	79%	543	466	100	19	2	15	65	164	7	7	5	215	319	362	682	147	292	30	12	309	95	-3	-1	-4	+6	+12	1.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	83%	534	460	97	19	1	14	63	163	6	6	6	211	315	352	667	141	289	31	12	303	91	-6	-1	-5	+6	+12	0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	86%	466	403	83	16	1	12	55	145	5	4	11	206	309	340	649	134	285	31	12	296	86	-8	-4	-5	+5	+10	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	CLE	88%	437	378	75	14	1	10	51	138	5	4	31	200	302	325	627	125	279	32	12	287	80	-10	-12	-6	+5	+9	-1.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	42%	231	197	43	8	1	7	29	71	3	4	2	216	328	367	696	151	298	31	13	315	100	-0	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	62%	347	295	65	13	1	10	44	105	5	6	2	219	329	375	705	156	298	30	13	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+4	+8	1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	71%	402	343	76	15	1	12	50	120	6	7	3	221	329	380	709	159	297	30	12	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+4	+9	1.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	414	354	78	15	1	13	51	123	6	7	3	221	328	379	707	157	297	30	12	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+4	+9	1.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	75%	417	359	78	15	1	12	50	123	5	7	3	221	326	376	701	155	295	29	12	317	100	+0	+0	-2	+4	+9	1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	405	348	76	15	1	12	49	121	5	6	3	219	323	369	693	151	294	30	12	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+4	+9	1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	79%	431	372	80	16	1	12	51	130	5	6	4	216	320	362	682	146	292	30	12	309	95	-3	-0	-3	+5	+9	0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	83%	445	384	81	16	1	12	53	136	5	5	5	212	315	352	668	141	289	31	12	303	91	-5	-1	-4	+5	+10	0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	86%	401	346	72	14	1	10	47	124	5	4	9	207	309	340	649	133	285	31	12	296	86	-7	-3	-4	+4	+9	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	CLE	88%	384	333	66	12	1	9	44	121	4	3	27	200	302	325	627	125	280	32	11	287	80	-9	-10	-5	+4	+8	-1.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3877	3331	715	139	10	109	468	1174	49	55	61	215	320	361	681	146	293	30	12	310	96	-20	-13	-25	+42	+84	6.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	120	23	2	18	78	197	8	9	10	215	319	360	680	145	295	30	12	310	96	-3	-2	-4	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6201	5299	1135	218	19	174	764	1924	85	97	85	214	323	361	684	147	297	31	12	310	96	-25	-15	-35	+60	+122	11.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	555	119	23	2	18	80	202	9	10	9	214	322	360	683	146	299	31	12	310	96	-3	-2	-4	+7	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Daryl Spencer'52-'63 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,206 PA	6.3	4,206	105	13	236*	321*	384*	+30	-4	11.2	11.7
/162	664	17	2	+4.8	-0.6	1.8	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.8	3,878	110	56	216	318	364	+42	-21	11.1	10.7
/162	664	19	10	+7.1	-3.5	1.9	pk7: 10
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	2.6	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
/162	664	24	5	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#5Heinie Sand'23-'28 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,529 PA	5.3	3,529	18	21	229*	321*	354*	+36	-15	3.9	3.9
/162	664	3	4	+6.7	-2.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Monte Cross'01-'07 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	9	138	213*	306*	344*	+36	-30	2.8	2.8
/162	664	2	27	+7.1	-6.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dean Curley (OGILVIE)	23	30→46	40→53	50	50	209/323/352	142	296	9	6	32%	13%	96	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	41→46	50	49→45	46	207/315/368	161	265	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	228/330/374	146	284	16	8	24%	9%	103	+1.6	228/337/371	143	283	17	6	24%	9%	103	+1.0
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Ryan Ritter 2024 · AA	23	44→48	49→50	52→50	40	214/290/365	152	331	17	14	38%	8%	86	+0.3	231/304/361	130	324	13	14	31%	7%	90	+0.6	239/315/362	122	327	11	14	28%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Kevin Cornelius 2016 · A	23	44	48→65	49→40	46	225/291/366	141	295	16	6	29%	8%	85	+0.2	218/276/375	157	324	19	3	36%	7%	82	-0.0	201/257/372	171	295	21	0	38%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
●Sean Rodríguez 2008 · AA	23	46→51	50→60	47→50	44	231/303/389	157	299	17	12	28%	7%	96	+1.0	241/313/435	194	302	23	11	27%	7%	110	+2.1	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Austin Wells 2022 · A	23	43→44	48→55	56→50	47	212/302/359	147	307	15	12	34%	10%	88	+0.5	219/297/382	163	280	19	10	28%	9%	92	+0.7	215/296/383	167	260	20	8	25%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Jordan Westburg 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	50→60	50	45	233/304/391	158	314	16	11	30%	8%	97	+1.1	248/305/429	181	306	21	9	25%	6%	105	+1.7	254/308/447	193	302	23	7	24%	6%	110	+1.6
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	214/279/364	150	282	17	7	30%	7%	81	-0.1	207/261/376	169	259	21	9	28%	6%	77	-0.3	240/295/408	167	283	19	7	22%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1

Dean Curley

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps