Zander Mueth — OGILVIE

Zander Mueth P Bradenton Marauders

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 131

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%19.1%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%-0.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD3540

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	95%	3.7	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	1.0%	2.31	4.57	—
2024	19	MIX	2 levels	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	95%	3.7	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	0.6%	2.31	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	100%	2.2	17.9%	25.4%	-7.6%	1.3%	6.58	5.52	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	100%	2.2	25.2%	21.5%	3.7%	0.7%	6.58	4.33	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	6	5	18	93	15	16	3	83%	3.0	11.9%	20.3%	-8.4%	4.2%	8.00	6.97	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	PIT	6	6	36	151	29	29	4	100%	6.0	19.1%	19.3%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.84	5.84	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	19.3%	-0.2%	2.8%	5.83	5.83	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	54	244	44	45	7	—	—	18.0%	18.5%	-0.5%	2.9%	6.56	6.22	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	PIT	7	7	38	158	33	26	4	100%	5.4	20.9%	16.4%	4.5%	2.7%	5.45	5.30	-0.3
2028	23	MLB	PIT	7	7	39	164	36	24	4	100%	5.6	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.7%	5.12	4.96	-0.2
2029	24	MLB	PIT	7	7	40	168	38	22	5	100%	5.7	22.6%	13.3%	9.3%	2.7%	4.87	4.74	-0.1
2030	25	MLB	PIT	7	7	40	171	39	21	5	100%	5.8	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2031	26	MLB	PIT	7	7	40	171	40	21	5	100%	5.8	23.2%	12.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.57	-0.0
2032	27	MLB	PIT	7	7	40	168	39	21	5	100%	5.7	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2033	28	MLB	PIT	6	6	39	163	38	21	5	100%	6.4	23.0%	12.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.67	4.70	-0.1
2027	22	MLB	PIT	3	3	18	76	16	12	2	100%	6.0	20.9%	16.4%	4.5%	2.7%	5.44	5.29	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	PIT	5	5	28	118	26	17	3	100%	5.6	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.7%	5.11	4.95	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	PIT	6	6	33	139	31	18	4	100%	5.5	22.6%	13.3%	9.3%	2.7%	4.86	4.73	-0.1
2030	25	MLB	PIT	6	6	36	152	35	19	4	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.69	4.59	-0.0
2031	26	MLB	PIT	6	6	37	156	36	19	4	100%	6.2	23.2%	12.4%	10.7%	2.7%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2032	27	MLB	PIT	6	6	37	156	36	20	4	100%	6.2	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	2.7%	4.61	4.60	-0.0
2033	28	MLB	PIT	6	6	36	152	35	19	4	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.7%	10.4%	2.8%	4.66	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			39	39	225	952	216	126	26	100%	5.8	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.7%	4.80	4.35	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	192	112	23	100%	5.7	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.7%	4.80	4.35	+2.5
Career	—			38	36	118	560	90	114	9	95%	3.1	16.1%	20.4%	-4.2%	1.6%	4.12	5.20	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—			64	61	200	949	153	193	15	95%	3.1	16.1%	20.4%	-4.2%	1.6%	4.12	5.20	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zander Mueth (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	19.1%	19.3%	2.8%	—	4.99	21.8%	7.1%	116	-0.85	—	—	—
Alex McFarlane R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	4.02	20.5%	6.2%	108	-0.89	3.64	159	86
Jackson Fristoe R 2027 · 5.78 FIP	22	SP-	5.78	17.0%	24.2%	1.9%	.258	6.42	15.6%	-2.0%	110	+0.64	4.79	138	83
Nolan Perry R 2025 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.24	29.0%	19.3%	52	-1.64	3.24	136	83
Marco Jimenez R 2027 · 5.16 FIP	22	SP-	5.16	19.6%	17.7%	2.7%	.372	4.06	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.10	3.36	183	83
Dane Acker R 2028 · 5.44 FIP	23	SP	5.44	19.3%	15.2%	3.7%	.284	4.44	20.3%	8.3%	215	-1.00	4.23	257	83
Jose Diaz R 2026 · 5.40 FIP	21	SP	5.40	16.5%	17.5%	2.7%	.357	4.96	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.44	3.95	189	82
Steven Brooks R 2027 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.6%	17.9%	3.0%	.268	4.80	25.0%	9.8%	40	-0.81	4.80	103	82
Victor Mederos R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	21	SP	5.03	15.6%	14.0%	2.7%	.286	5.29	16.5%	5.4%	301	+0.26	4.19	360	82
Kohl Franklin R 2027 · 5.37 FIP	22	SP	5.37	17.8%	14.6%	3.5%	.320	5.45	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.08	5.37	174	81
Esteban Mejia R 2024 · 6.99 FIP	19	SP	6.99	16.0%	31.0%	2.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	122	81
Hyun-Seok Jang R 2026 · 5.37 FIP	21	SP	5.37	22.8%	21.6%	2.7%	.224	5.11	20.3%	8.7%	62	-0.26	5.11	127	81
Chen-Wei Lin R 2026 · 6.46 FIP	21	SP	6.46	21.3%	22.0%	4.3%	.379	3.67	20.8%	8.1%	221	-2.79	3.03	233	81
Joey Oakie R 2025 · 5.67 FIP	20	SP	5.67	18.9%	22.6%	2.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	105	80
Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP	4.86	16.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.311	6.15	21.4%	4.1%	64	+1.29	4.16	109	80
Mason Denaburg R 2027 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.278	5.91	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+1.03	4.45	151	80
Ryan Harvey R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	80
Kyle Larsen R 2026 · 5.50 FIP	21	SP-	5.50	15.8%	17.9%	2.7%	.274	5.00	20.2%	6.7%	77	-0.50	4.71	137	80
Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 6.04 FIP	21	SP	6.04	17.0%	21.6%	3.0%	.276	4.84	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.20	3.61	204	79
Jeter Martinez R 2025 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP	4.89	15.7%	15.9%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	209	79
Ryan Degges R 2027 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	15.1%	16.7%	2.8%	.296	6.74	21.2%	5.9%	21	+1.24	5.50	102	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	39	22.2%	14.1%	1.06	4.97
Touki Toussaint ('24)	7	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	7	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	6	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Greg Holland ('21)	6	45	25.4%	12.3%	0.87	4.03
Jake Diekman ('24)	9	51	28.6%	13.8%	0.91	4.07
Fernando Rodney ('19)	5	59	24.6%	11.8%	0.88	4.21