Zander Mueth — OGILVIE

Zander Mueth P Bradenton Marauders

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%19.1%

BB%21.2%

K-BB%-2.1%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD3540

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	95%	3.7	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	2.31	4.52	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	95%	3.7	16.6%	18.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	2.31	4.52	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	95%	3.7	23.8%	15.1%	8.7%	0.6%	2.31	3.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	100%	2.2	17.9%	25.4%	-7.6%	1.2%	6.58	5.47	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	100%	2.2	17.9%	25.4%	-7.6%	1.2%	6.58	5.47	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	100%	2.2	25.2%	21.5%	3.7%	0.7%	6.58	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	14	10	35	181	28	34	7	71%	2.5	12.0%	22.5%	-10.5%	5.3%	8.66	7.83	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	14	10	35	181	28	34	7	71%	2.5	12.0%	22.5%	-10.5%	5.3%	8.66	7.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	PIT	1	1	2	8	0	1	0	100%	2.0	0.0%	12.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	0.00	4.68	—
2026	21	A RAW	PIT	13	9	33	173	28	33	7	69%	2.6	16.2%	19.1%	-2.9%	4.0%	9.18	6.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	70	295	62	53	8	100%	5.4	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	2.7%	5.64	5.47	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	72	306	67	48	8	100%	5.6	21.9%	15.6%	6.4%	2.7%	5.27	5.08	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	74	314	71	44	8	100%	5.7	22.6%	14.1%	8.5%	2.7%	4.99	4.83	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	75	318	73	42	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	13.1%	9.8%	2.7%	4.80	4.67	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	75	318	74	42	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	13.1%	10.1%	2.7%	4.71	4.65	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	74	313	72	41	9	100%	6.2	23.2%	13.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.70	4.69	+0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	72	304	70	40	9	100%	6.0	23.0%	13.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.75	4.78	+0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	69	290	66	39	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	13.5%	9.3%	3.0%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	65	273	61	38	9	100%	5.9	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	3.2%	4.99	5.08	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	PIT	6	6	34	144	30	26	4	100%	5.7	20.9%	17.8%	3.1%	2.5%	5.53	5.36	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	53	224	49	35	6	100%	5.3	21.9%	15.6%	6.4%	2.5%	5.16	4.97	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	62	262	59	37	7	100%	5.6	22.6%	14.1%	8.5%	2.5%	4.88	4.72	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	66	279	64	37	7	100%	6.0	23.0%	13.1%	9.8%	2.5%	4.69	4.56	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	68	38	7	100%	5.8	23.2%	13.1%	10.1%	2.5%	4.60	4.54	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	69	291	67	38	7	100%	5.8	23.2%	13.2%	10.0%	2.5%	4.59	4.58	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	67	283	65	38	7	100%	6.1	23.0%	13.3%	9.7%	2.6%	4.63	4.66	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	65	274	63	37	8	100%	5.9	22.8%	13.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.79	-0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	61	258	58	36	8	100%	6.1	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	2.9%	4.86	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	94	546	2307	523	321	60	100%	5.8	22.7%	13.9%	8.8%	2.6%	4.80	4.37	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	117	22	100%	5.8	22.7%	13.9%	8.8%	2.6%	4.80	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		46	41	135	648	101	136	14	89%	2.9	15.6%	21.0%	-5.4%	2.2%	4.79	5.64	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	61	200	958	149	201	21	89%	2.9	15.6%	21.0%	-5.4%	2.2%	4.79	5.64	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zander Mueth (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	19.1%	21.2%	2.8%	—	5.12	21.8%	6.0%	217	-0.95	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	89
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	86
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	82
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	82
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	80
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	80
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	79
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	79
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	79
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	78
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	78
Chen-Wei Lin R 2023 · 6.48 FIP	21	SP	6.48	21.3%	22.0%	4.4%	.379	3.81	20.5%	8.4%	257	-2.67	3.05	269	78
Raudy Rivera R 2023 · 5.92 FIP	18	SP	5.92	19.2%	31.6%	0.8%	.321	5.34	22.7%	-0.8%	75	-0.58	3.65	111	77
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	77
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	68	22.4%	14.5%	1.08	5.02
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58