Zander Mueth — OGILVIE

Zander Mueth P Bradenton Marauders

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.4%

IP33

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2030

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	20	19	74	332	79	50	2	16.6%	18.3%	0.9%	2.31	4.54	+0.4
2025	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	12	12	26	135	34	29	1	17.9%	25.4%	1.2%	6.58	5.48	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Bradenton Marauders	3	2	9	45	9	6	1	—	—	—	7.00	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	PIT	33	—	33	141	31	18	4	22.0%	12.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.74	+0.1
2026 Total	21	MLB	PIT	—	—	42	186	40	24	5	21.5%	12.7%	2.6%	5.22	3.73	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	PIT	35	—	35	148	34	17	4	23.0%	11.2%	2.7%	4.55	4.45	+0.2
2028	23	MLB	PIT	36	—	36	154	37	16	4	23.8%	10.2%	2.7%	4.37	4.26	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	PIT	37	—	37	157	38	15	4	24.3%	9.7%	2.7%	4.23	4.13	+0.3
2030	25	MLB	PIT	38	—	38	160	39	15	4	24.6%	9.3%	2.7%	4.13	4.05	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	PIT	38	—	38	160	40	15	4	24.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.07	4.03	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	PIT	38	—	38	158	39	15	4	24.9%	9.3%	2.7%	4.05	4.04	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	PIT	37	—	37	156	39	15	4	24.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.06	4.07	+0.4
2034	29	MLB	PIT	36	—	36	152	38	14	4	24.7%	9.4%	2.8%	4.09	4.11	+0.3
2035	30	MLB	PIT	35	—	35	148	36	14	4	24.5%	9.5%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+0.3
2036	31	MLB	PIT	34	—	34	143	35	14	4	24.3%	9.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.25	+0.3
2037	32	MLB	PIT	32	—	32	137	33	13	4	24.0%	9.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.33	+0.2
2038	33	MLB	PIT	31	—	31	130	31	13	4	23.7%	10.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.43	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	PIT	29	—	29	124	29	13	4	23.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.54	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			35	33	109	512	88	101	6	17.2%	19.8%	1.1%	3.72	4.77	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			64	61	200	939	161	185	11	17.2%	19.8%	1.1%	3.72	4.77	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zander Mueth (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	22.0%	12.6%	2.8%	—	4.28	23.7%	13.4%	109	-0.46	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	95
Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.17	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.32	3.05	195	92
Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	91
Juan Mendez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SU	4.50	20.5%	14.2%	2.4%	.271	5.08	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.58	3.73	156	91
Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	91
Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	90
Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.52	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.77	3.24	288	89
Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	21	SU	4.79	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.83	3.32	124	89
Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	198	89
Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.99	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.09	3.35	394	89
Justin Meis R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	21	SU	4.02	25.6%	13.6%	2.5%	.300	5.11	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.09	3.64	341	88
Rolddy Muñoz R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	21	SU	4.30	21.4%	13.7%	2.3%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.76	3.15	238	88
Easton Sikorski R 2028 · 4.84 FIP	23	SU	4.84	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.24	18.1%	6.2%	130	-0.60	4.16	159	88
Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.18	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.06	4.91	162	88
Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	22.2%	13.8%	2.6%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.41	3.54	152	87
Kasey Ford R 2028 · 4.67 FIP	23	SU	4.67	20.3%	14.5%	2.6%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.41	2.53	114	87
Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.39	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.10	4.39	119	87
Tyler Mattison R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	22	SU	3.71	24.7%	14.5%	1.6%	.315	3.90	29.1%	14.9%	79	+0.19	3.71	111	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$5M