Ricson Gonzalez
C ACL Royals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKDSL Royals Ve… | 138 | .274/.361/.333 | 0 | 0 | 26 | — | .174/.248/.215 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROKKC | 93 | .221/.341/.286 | 0 | 0 | 24 | — | .160/.253/.210 |
| 2026 | 21 | A/ROKKC | 186 | .295/.425/.404 | 3 | 3 | 81 | — | .238/.341/.324 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBKC | 296 | .216/.289/.305 | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBKC | 52 | .217/.291/.313 | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBKC | 105 | .220/.294/.322 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | — | 101 | 90 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 307 | 267 | 574 | 44 | 270 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | — | 113 | 90 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 244 | 398 | 344 | 743 | 100 | 309 | 19 | 14 | 351 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 117 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 274 | 361 | 333 | 694 | 60 | 320 | 15 | 8 | 311 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 341 | 286 | 626 | 65 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 291 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | — | 67 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 403 | 351 | 754 | 53 | 340 | 10 | 13 | 351 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 119 | 89 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 292 | 438 | 438 | 876 | 146 | 329 | 16 | 13 | 376 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 101 | 92 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 218 | 163 | 381 | 22 | 172 | 19 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 113 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 283 | 211 | 494 | 63 | 194 | 23 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 248 | 215 | 463 | 41 | 200 | 19 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 81 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 253 | 210 | 463 | 49 | 242 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Columbia Fireflies | — | 67 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 328 | 283 | 612 | 33 | 296 | 15 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 119 | 95 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 348 | 347 | 696 | 116 | 251 | 23 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 101 | 92 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 218 | 163 | 381 | 22 | 178 | 19 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL KC Glass | — | 101 | 90 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 307 | 267 | 574 | 44 | 270 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 113 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 283 | 211 | 494 | 63 | 191 | 23 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals Blue | — | 113 | 90 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 244 | 398 | 344 | 743 | 100 | 309 | 19 | 14 | 351 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 248 | 215 | 463 | 41 | 212 | 19 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 117 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 274 | 361 | 333 | 694 | 60 | 320 | 15 | 8 | 311 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 81 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 253 | 210 | 463 | 49 | 260 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 341 | 286 | 626 | 65 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 291 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 155 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 335 | 316 | 651 | 84 | 280 | 20 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 186 | 146 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 295 | 425 | 404 | 829 | 110 | 333 | 14 | 13 | 367 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL KC Glass | — | 101 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 218 | 165 | 383 | 22 | 172 | 19 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Blue | — | 113 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 149 | 283 | 213 | 496 | 64 | 194 | 23 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 168 | 248 | 208 | 456 | 40 | 200 | 19 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 83 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 157 | 253 | 205 | 458 | 48 | 242 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 160 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 335 | 306 | 641 | 81 | 267 | 20 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Royals Ventura | — | 138 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 168 | 248 | 208 | 456 | 40 | 200 | 19 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 93 | 83 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 157 | 253 | 205 | 458 | 48 | 242 | 34 | 9 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 186 | 160 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 335 | 306 | 641 | 81 | 267 | 20 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 296 | 267 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 75 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 89 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | KC | 34% | 150 | 135 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 292 | 317 | 610 | 98 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | KC | 46% | 228 | 205 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 296 | 327 | 622 | 104 | 286 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 52% | 290 | 261 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 72 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 297 | 333 | 631 | 109 | 287 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 79 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 334 | 299 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 82 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 299 | 338 | 637 | 113 | 287 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 355 | 318 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 87 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 225 | 299 | 339 | 638 | 114 | 287 | 25 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 54% | 361 | 324 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 90 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 297 | 334 | 631 | 111 | 286 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | KC | 58% | 357 | 321 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 90 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 294 | 328 | 621 | 107 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | KC | 60% | 349 | 314 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 290 | 320 | 610 | 102 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | KC | 34% | 52 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 291 | 313 | 603 | 95 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 74 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | KC | 46% | 105 | 94 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 294 | 322 | 615 | 101 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | KC | 52% | 150 | 135 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 295 | 328 | 623 | 106 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 181 | 162 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 296 | 332 | 628 | 109 | 285 | 24 | 8 | 285 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 193 | 172 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 297 | 333 | 629 | 110 | 285 | 24 | 8 | 285 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 54% | 196 | 175 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 294 | 328 | 622 | 107 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 282 | 79 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | KC | 58% | 206 | 185 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 292 | 322 | 613 | 103 | 282 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | KC | 60% | 209 | 187 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 288 | 314 | 602 | 99 | 280 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1292 | 1157 | 254 | 44 | 7 | 20 | 103 | 321 | 20 | 21 | 7 | 220 | 295 | 322 | 616 | 102 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 281 | 70 | -34 | +1 | -2 | +23 | +28 | 1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 128 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 161 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 220 | 295 | 323 | 619 | 103 | 284 | 25 | 8 | 281 | 70 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3163 | 2818 | 604 | 95 | 19 | 47 | 249 | 772 | 61 | 44 | 20 | 214 | 292 | 312 | 604 | 97 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -67 | +2 | -4 | +45 | +55 | 3.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 159 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 216 | 294 | 316 | 610 | 100 | 277 | 24 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Royals · 119 PAwOBA .377 → .289 (−88)K% 16.0% → 23.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.97% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 4.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 23.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×0.985 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.29% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .377 → .289; ISO .146 → .119; BABIP .329 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 67 PAwOBA .343 → .283 (−60)K% 10.4% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 14.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 24.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .283; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .340 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Royals · 93 PAwOBA .288 → .204 (−84)K% 23.7% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.66% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.64% | ÷1.019 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×0.995 | 19.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.975 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×0.995 | 4.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.070 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×0.995 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 114, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .288 → .204; ISO .065 → .044; BABIP .304 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Royals Ventura · 138 PAwOBA .312 → .207 (−106)K% 15.2% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.62% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.014 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 17.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 103, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .312 → .207; ISO .060 → .036; BABIP .320 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Royals Blue · 113 PAwOBA .343 → .226 (−117)K% 18.6% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.58% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.16% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.19% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.990 | ×0.680 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.078 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.600 | ×0.967 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.903 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .343 → .226; ISO .100 → .055; BABIP .309 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL KC Glass · 101 PAwOBA .265 → .173 (−92)K% 15.8% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.93% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.96% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 14.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.136 | ×0.600 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.879 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 104, 2B 127, 3B 102, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .265 → .173; ISO .044 → .023; BABIP .270 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).