Ricson Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Ricson GonzalezC ACL Royals

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 73 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .300 / .332

PA73

HR1

K%26

BB%7

BABIP302

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$20M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	101	93	14	2	0	0	4	23	4	1	0	151	218	172	390	22	200	23	4	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	101	90	20	4	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	222	307	267	574	44	270	16	7	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	113	96	16	3	0	1	10	32	7	0	1	167	292	229	521	62	238	28	9	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	113	90	22	6	0	1	16	21	7	0	1	244	398	344	743	100	309	19	14	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	138	122	25	4	1	0	6	30	5	0	2	205	271	254	525	49	260	22	4	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	138	117	32	5	1	0	11	21	5	0	2	274	361	333	694	60	320	15	8	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	93	81	13	2	1	0	8	33	2	0	1	160	253	210	463	49	265	35	9	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	93	77	17	3	1	0	12	22	2	0	1	221	341	286	626	65	304	24	13	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	KC	—	110	90	22	0	1	3	8	26	6	2	1	244	346	367	713	122	302	24	7	294	83	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
YTD	21	ROK	KC	—	110	85	26	0	2	3	13	18	6	2	1	306	433	459	892	153	348	16	12	381	150	+6	+0	+0	+2	+3	1.2
ROS	21	ROK	KC	0%	73	66	15	2	1	1	5	19	2	1	0	226	300	332	632	106	282	26	7	274	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	KC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		279	—	—	253	52	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	KC	—	110	91	22	0	1	3	8	26	6	2	1	242	346	363	709	121	297	24	7	294	83	-2	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
TOT	21	ROK	KC	—	183	156	37	2	2	4	13	45	8	3	1	237	327	352	679	115	302	25	7	286	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	215	193	43	6	2	4	16	53	4	3	1	223	296	337	633	114	284	25	7	282	74	-6	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.4
2028	23	MLB	KC	48%	324	291	65	10	2	6	24	79	6	5	2	223	296	333	629	110	286	24	7	288	79	-8	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.7
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	400	359	82	12	3	8	30	97	8	7	3	228	302	345	648	117	287	24	8	292	82	-8	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.1
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	443	398	91	14	3	9	34	107	8	8	3	229	302	347	649	118	287	24	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	469	421	97	15	3	10	36	113	9	8	3	230	305	352	656	121	287	24	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	480	431	98	15	3	10	37	116	9	8	3	227	302	346	648	118	287	24	8	294	83	-9	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	482	432	98	15	3	10	38	117	9	8	3	227	303	345	648	118	286	24	8	293	82	-10	+0	-1	+9	+14	1.3
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	477	427	96	15	3	9	38	117	9	8	3	225	302	337	639	112	286	25	8	291	81	-10	+0	-1	+9	+14	1.1
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	469	420	94	14	3	9	37	116	9	8	3	224	300	336	636	112	284	25	8	288	79	-11	+0	-2	+8	+13	0.9
2027	22	MLB	KC	34%	74	68	15	2	1	1	5	18	1	1	0	221	284	324	607	103	281	24	7	264	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	23	MLB	KC	48%	157	141	32	5	1	3	12	38	3	2	1	227	301	340	642	113	283	24	8	270	65	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB	KC	53%	211	189	43	6	2	4	16	51	4	3	1	228	301	344	645	116	284	24	8	275	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB	KC	55%	242	217	49	7	2	5	18	58	5	4	2	226	300	346	646	120	284	24	7	276	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	26	MLB	KC	56%	261	234	53	8	2	5	20	63	5	5	2	226	301	342	643	115	284	24	8	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2032	27	MLB	KC	55%	264	237	53	8	2	5	20	64	5	5	2	224	298	338	635	114	284	24	8	277	70	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2033	28	MLB	KC	55%	263	235	53	8	2	5	21	64	5	4	2	226	303	340	643	115	283	24	8	276	69	-9	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB	KC	53%	254	227	51	8	2	5	20	62	5	4	2	225	302	344	645	119	282	24	8	274	68	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB	KC	53%	246	220	49	7	2	5	19	61	5	4	2	223	299	341	640	118	281	25	8	271	66	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1972	1769	398	59	16	38	151	479	38	32	14	225	300	341	641	116	286	24	8	274	68	-71	+1	-2	+35	+56	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	131	19	5	13	50	158	13	11	5	225	301	341	642	117	284	24	8	274	68	-23	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4277	3830	847	129	28	77	323	1052	91	65	28	221	297	330	627	109	283	25	8	283	75	-122	+2	-4	+76	+121	7.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	129	20	4	12	49	160	14	10	4	222	298	332	629	110	283	25	8	283	75	-19	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL KC Glass	—	101	90	20	4	0	0	7	16	4	1	0	222	307	267	574	44	270	16	7	272	66	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Royals Blue	—	113	90	22	6	0	1	16	21	7	0	1	244	398	344	743	100	309	19	14	351	127	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.6
2024	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	138	117	32	5	1	0	11	21	5	0	2	274	361	333	694	60	320	15	8	311	96	-1	-1	—	—	+4	0.3
2025	20	ROK	ACL Royals	—	93	77	17	3	1	0	12	22	2	0	1	221	341	286	626	65	304	24	13	291	81	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,080	40	34	227	298	343	+37	+24	5.0	4.8
	/162	664	13	11	227	298	343	+11.9	+7.7	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ricson Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	21	42→47	33→38	43→48	50	237/327/352	115	302	4	3	25%	7%	77	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Juan Uriarte 2019 · A	21	46	41→45	49→30	41	223/277/320	96	282	8	4	23%	5%	65	-0.7	186/228/266	80	283	6	4	35%	3%	30	-3.1	145/181/205	60	226	4	0	37%	2%	-9	-1.6
✕Blake Ochoa 2007 · A	21	45	40→45	46→40	44	215/280/308	92	280	6	5	24%	6%	64	-0.8	216/268/311	95	281	7	4	24%	6%	59	-1.1	233/296/376	142	280	16	2	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Geoandry Montilla 2017 · A	21	44	41→45	45→50	46	214/281/315	101	286	8	9	27%	8%	66	-0.6	197/264/296	99	314	8	8	37%	7%	54	-1.4	131/203/233	101	238	8	7	45%	7%	11	-1.2
✕Bryan Lavastida 2021 · A	22	47→44	38→45	46→55	46	221/291/303	81	299	5	8	26%	8%	66	-0.6	220/287/340	120	289	12	13	26%	7%	75	-0.0	219/292/337	118	281	12	27	25%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Jose Cordova 2021 · A	21	49	37→40	50	42	230/287/303	73	298	4	13	23%	5%	65	-0.7	211/265/280	69	308	3	9	31%	5%	50	-1.8	227/290/312	85	305	4	12	25%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→45	40	46→40	43	215/264/301	87	273	8	6	24%	6%	54	-1.4	227/296/326	99	305	8	4	26%	8%	75	-0.0	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕José Caballero 2018 · A	21	47→45	39→45	54→70	39	224/275/317	93	301	6	7	27%	5%	63	-0.8	223/291/334	111	281	10	19	23%	7%	76	+0.0	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Jair Fernandez 2008 · A	21	44	39→40	49→30	45	212/271/299	87	275	6	6	24%	7%	57	-1.2	218/274/309	91	281	7	4	24%	6%	61	-1.0	204/272/303	99	266	9	1	26%	7%	56	-0.5
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Lou Marson 2007 · A	21	45→54	39→40	53→50	45	216/280/308	93	293	6	5	27%	8%	63	-0.8	250/320/346	96	332	7	4	24%	9%	90	+1.0	263/336/352	90	344	6	4	23%	9%	96	+1.1
✕Arturo De Freitas 2021 · A	20	45	40→45	49→40	45	213/288/309	96	295	6	7	28%	8%	68	-0.5	179/233/250	71	283	5	4	36%	5%	28	-3.2	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Seth Conner 2013 · A	21	46	40	47→45	47	217/298/309	92	292	6	4	26%	8%	72	-0.2	196/258/263	67	279	4	4	29%	6%	43	-2.2	124/175/138	14	180	0	0	30%	5%	-28	-1.4
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	45	38→40	42→45	47	212/273/289	77	273	5	5	23%	7%	56	-1.3	200/258/270	70	282	5	5	29%	7%	44	-2.1	202/252/250	48	271	3	6	25%	6%	33	-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	71	-0.3	200/293/314	114	279	11	5	29%	11%	72	-0.2	179/275/290	111	249	12	4	31%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	44→45	41→50	48→50	51	208/295/315	107	257	6	8	21%	9%	72	-0.2	200/283/336	136	266	14	9	29%	8%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Jairo Encarnacion 2007 · A	21	44	41→40	52→45	46	212/274/306	95	244	9	8	18%	6%	61	-1.0	229/298/318	89	272	8	7	18%	7%	74	-0.1	246/322/325	79	284	8	4	15%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Phillip Britton 2006 · A	21	44	40→45	49→40	41	212/274/304	92	283	7	6	27%	6%	60	-1.0	229/257/346	117	267	12	4	19%	3%	63	-0.8	231/255/347	115	264	12	4	18%	2%	58	-0.6
✕Stevie Berman 2017 · A	22	45	37→50	48→40	45	212/278/285	72	281	4	6	25%	7%	57	-1.2	213/271/299	86	269	7	4	22%	6%	57	-1.2	203/292/318	115	246	13	2	22%	9%	70	-0.1