Nick Sando
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 126
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
K%20.5%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 3 | 74 | 311 | 90 | 35 | 1 | 12% | 3.1 | 20.5% | 13.6% | 6.9% | 0.4% | 3.15 | 3.31 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 3 | 74 | 311 | 90 | 35 | 1 | 12% | 3.1 | 28.9% | 11.3% | 17.7% | 0.3% | 3.15 | 2.27 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 11 | 92 | 382 | 107 | 42 | 7 | 37% | 3.1 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 11 | 92 | 382 | 107 | 42 | 7 | 37% | 3.1 | 28.0% | 11.0% | 17.0% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 7 | 6 | 27 | 107 | 34 | 15 | 0 | 86% | 3.8 | 26.7% | 15.5% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 1.69 | 2.81 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | CIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 91 | 381 | 90 | 48 | 7 | — | — | 23.7% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 3.85 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.5% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 62 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 62 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.69 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 0 | 126 | 533 | 113 | 63 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.33 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 100 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 20 | 193 | 800 | 171 | 107 | 9 | 33% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 3.03 | 3.61 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 21 | 200 | 829 | 177 | 111 | 9 | 33% | 3.2 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 3.03 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Sando (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.71 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 206 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 83 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 79 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 79 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.22 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.47 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 271 | +1.25 | 3.71 | 484 | 79 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 79 |
| Hayden Frank L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.29 | 17.2% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.29 | 109 | 79 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 78 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 78 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 77 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 76 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.91 | 27.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | .237 | 5.18 | 19.7% | 3.3% | 81 | +1.27 | 3.91 | 151 | 75 |
| Edgar Barclay L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.79 | 24.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | .307 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 157 | +0.81 | 2.06 | 402 | 75 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 74 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 74 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 74 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .342 | 2.44 | 28.9% | 23.8% | 49 | -1.21 | 2.44 | 496 | 73 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.49 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 313 | 73 |
| Nico Tellache L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 73 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.08 | 27.3% | 19.5% | 111 | -1.47 | 2.40 | 382 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 1.06 | 4.71 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |