Jack Choate
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 25
LHP
6'8" / 246 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 132 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104113vR 122
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%22.0%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP132
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 42.1% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.88 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 42.1% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.85 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 68 | 284 | 87 | 24 | 1 | 56% | 3.8 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 0.6% | 2.25 | 2.75 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 68 | 284 | 87 | 24 | 1 | 56% | 3.8 | 30.6% | 8.5% | 22.2% | 0.4% | 2.25 | 1.79 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 112 | 483 | 128 | 37 | 8 | 96% | 4.1 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 3.79 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 112 | 483 | 128 | 37 | 8 | 96% | 4.1 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 1.7% | 3.79 | 2.73 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 29 | 24 | 103 | 445 | 123 | 51 | 12 | 83% | 3.5 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 3.51 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 29 | 24 | 103 | 445 | 123 | 51 | 12 | 83% | 3.5 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 20 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 40 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 18.1% | 6.1% | 0.9% | 3.06 | 3.84 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 125 | 0 | 132 | 556 | 122 | 66 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 164 | 690 | 162 | 88 | 16 | — | — | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 4.26 | 4.42 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.12 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 132 | 556 | 123 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 22 | 22 | 130 | 548 | 121 | 61 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 21 | 21 | 126 | 531 | 117 | 59 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 110 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 102 | 55 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 105 | 445 | 93 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 97 | 411 | 85 | 51 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.32 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 54 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 77 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 95 | 401 | 88 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 90 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 88 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 83 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 5.02 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 76 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 102 | 614 | 2594 | 559 | 300 | 77 | 98% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.38 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 182 | 98 | 25 | 98% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 60 | 319 | 1365 | 305 | 155 | 23 | 61% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 3.28 | 3.57 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 192 | 97 | 14 | 61% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 3.28 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Choate (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.0% | 11.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.55 | 22.1% | 10.9% | 387 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .307 | 3.48 | 21.1% | 12.6% | 150 | -1.87 | 2.34 | 338 | 77 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .322 | 5.90 | 28.8% | 13.9% | 13 | +2.06 | 3.84 | 249 | 76 |
| Nick Maronde L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 76 |
| Lael Lockhart L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.22 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.47 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 271 | +1.25 | 3.71 | 484 | 75 |
| Zack Thompson L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .355 | 4.75 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 107 | +0.16 | 2.03 | 402 | 75 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 75 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 74 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.43 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .266 | 6.06 | 11.5% | -1.2% | 56 | +2.63 | 3.43 | 145 | 74 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 73 |
| Brent Headrick L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.08 | 27.3% | 19.5% | 111 | -1.47 | 2.40 | 382 | 73 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .342 | 2.44 | 28.9% | 23.8% | 49 | -1.21 | 2.44 | 496 | 72 |
| Adam Wolf L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.01 | 19.4% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 4.17 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 109 | +0.16 | 3.91 | 383 | 72 |
| Justin Wrobleski L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.75 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.29 | 18.3% | 13.3% | 100 | -0.46 | 0.98 | 468 | 72 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 16.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.05 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 129 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 71 |
| Justin Marks L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 71 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2025 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 71 |
| Matt Tracy L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 71 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.3% | .326 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.15 | 0.84 | 577 | 71 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.67 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.6% | .355 | 5.01 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 93 | +1.34 | 3.10 | 381 | 70 |
| Framber Valdez L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.82 | 25.3% | 12.2% | 2.4% | .304 | 3.02 | 23.5% | 15.2% | 407 | -0.80 | 2.47 | 1,509 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 119 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 1.16 | 4.70 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |