Jack Choate

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 LHP 6'8" / 246 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2429ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	112	3.79	2.73	26.5%	7.7%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.53
2025	24	AASF	29	24	103	3.51	3.71	27.6%	11.5%	—	K 22.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	25	AASF	33	2	51	4.38	3.26	30.0%	15.2%	—	K 24.3% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	3	0	3	4.77	4.77	23.0%	13.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	38	0	40	4.63	4.64	22.9%	13.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	53	0	56	4.64	4.68	22.7%	13.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsBrian Burres (age 26) · Mark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Will Johnston (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%23.0%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP132

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	0	4	19	8	5	0	0%	1.0	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.88	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	0	4	19	8	5	0	0%	1.0	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.85	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	284	87	24	1	56%	3.8	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	0.5%	2.25	2.71	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	68	284	87	24	1	56%	3.8	30.6%	8.5%	22.2%	0.4%	2.25	1.79	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	1.7%	3.79	2.73	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	2.7%	3.51	4.31	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	2.7%	3.51	4.31	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	27.6%	11.5%	16.2%	2.7%	3.51	3.71	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	24.3%	16.7%	7.5%	1.7%	4.38	4.08	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	24.3%	16.7%	7.5%	1.7%	4.38	4.08	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	30.0%	15.2%	14.7%	1.4%	4.38	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.9%	9.1%	2.7%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	101	0	106	448	103	60	12	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.75	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	89	0	94	396	90	52	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.80	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	81	0	85	360	81	47	11	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.83	4.90	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	73	0	77	324	72	43	10	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	3.2%	4.96	5.06	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	38	0	40	169	39	23	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.3%	9.6%	2.6%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	53	0	56	236	54	31	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.1%	9.7%	2.7%	4.64	4.68	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	57	0	60	253	57	33	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.78	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	57	0	60	253	56	33	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	0	216	913	205	120	25	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.39	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	111	23	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	2.8%	4.71	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		111	62	338	1448	325	167	27	56%	3.0	22.5%	11.5%	10.9%	1.9%	3.46	3.68	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	37	200	858	193	99	16	56%	3.0	22.5%	11.5%	10.9%	1.9%	3.46	3.68	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 51 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.08 (+0.82)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.95%	—	×0.810	24.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.21%	—	×1.100	16.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 103 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.31 (+0.61)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.64%	—	×0.810	22.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×1.100	12.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.183	×1.200	2.74%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 78 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.26 (+0.83)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.85%	—	×0.770	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.150	6.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.010	×1.250	1.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 34 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.08 (+0.69)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.79%	—	×0.810	20.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.32%	—	×1.100	12.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.062	×1.200	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 47 IPFIP 1.71 → 2.82 (+1.11)K% 34.4% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.36%	—	×0.740	25.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×1.180	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.890	×1.300	0.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.71 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 21 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.46 (+0.54)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.47%	—	×0.770	17.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×1.150	6.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.076	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Choate (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	23.0%	13.9%	2.7%	—	4.81	22.7%	9.6%	285	+0.04	—	—	—
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	80
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	79
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	75
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	72
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	71
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.65	16.1%	-1.2%	46	-0.62	4.17	315	70
Luis Ysla L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	18.9%	13.9%	3.1%	.325	5.78	18.0%	3.6%	86	+0.82	3.75	378	69
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	69
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	68
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	68
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	68
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	68
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	67
Nick Allgeyer L 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SW	5.17	18.6%	9.8%	4.4%	.284	5.65	18.9%	6.8%	81	+0.48	3.74	390	67
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	66
Aaron Leasher L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	21.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.318	4.98	15.1%	-2.0%	64	+0.94	4.04	477	66
Anthony Veneziano L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	26	SW	4.33	17.6%	9.0%	2.9%	.307	4.72	17.3%	8.0%	87	+0.39	4.18	539	65
Brandon Waddell L 2019 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	21.1%	11.3%	2.8%	.344	3.62	20.1%	10.5%	53	-0.68	2.67	616	65
Chris Murphy L 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	21.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.344	3.92	21.6%	10.1%	110	-0.07	3.63	464	65
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	99	22.7%	13.4%	1.12	4.80
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Rob Tejeda ('05-'11, 3 WAR*)	2.2	74	21.8%*	12.6%*	1.00*	4.23*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42