Jack Choate — OGILVIE

Jack Choate P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 LHP 6'8" / 246 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%22.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	4	0	4	19	8	5	0	0%	1.0	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.88	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	4	0	4	19	8	5	0	0%	1.0	42.1%	26.3%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.85	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	284	87	24	1	56%	3.8	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	0.5%	2.25	2.71	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	68	284	87	24	1	56%	3.8	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	0.5%	2.25	2.71	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	68	284	87	24	1	56%	3.8	30.6%	8.5%	22.2%	0.4%	2.25	1.79	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	112	483	128	37	8	96%	4.1	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	1.7%	3.79	2.73	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	2.7%	3.51	4.31	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	2.7%	3.51	4.31	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	24	103	445	123	51	12	83%	3.5	27.6%	11.5%	16.2%	2.7%	3.51	3.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	24.3%	16.7%	7.5%	1.7%	4.38	4.08	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	24.3%	16.7%	7.5%	1.7%	4.38	4.08	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SF	33	2	51	217	65	33	3	6%	1.6	30.0%	15.2%	14.7%	1.4%	4.38	3.26	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	57	242	70	36	4	—	—	29.1%	14.8%	14.3%	1.5%	4.40	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	125	0	132	556	123	62	15	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.54	4.53	+0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	124	0	130	548	121	60	16	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.54	4.55	0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	120	0	126	531	117	58	16	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.62	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	114	0	120	507	110	56	16	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.1%	4.67	4.74	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	108	0	113	477	102	54	16	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.82	4.92	-0.5
2032	31	MLB MLE	SF	100	0	105	445	93	52	16	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.5%	5.00	5.12	-0.7
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	55	0	58	245	54	27	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.6%	4.43	4.42	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	78	0	82	346	77	38	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	2.6%	4.42	4.43	0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	90	0	95	401	88	44	11	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	2.7%	4.46	4.50	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	93	0	98	414	90	46	12	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	2.9%	4.54	4.61	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	92	0	97	410	88	46	12	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.68	4.78	-0.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	SF	89	0	93	393	83	46	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.3%	4.86	4.98	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		499	0	523	2210	480	247	63	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.26	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	94	24	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.58	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		111	62	338	1448	325	167	27	56%	3.0	22.5%	11.5%	10.9%	1.9%	3.46	3.68	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	37	200	858	193	99	16	56%	3.0	22.5%	11.5%	10.9%	1.9%	3.46	3.68	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Choate (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.0%	11.5%	2.7%	—	4.57	22.1%	11.1%	387	-0.02	—	—	—
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	81
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Zack Thompson L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP-	4.50	22.8%	12.9%	3.1%	.355	4.69	23.0%	10.8%	107	+0.19	2.03	402	76
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	76
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	74
Adam Wolf L 2022 · 3.91 FIP	25	SW	3.91	19.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.292	4.18	16.8%	5.9%	109	+0.27	3.91	383	74
Brad Hand L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	25	SW	3.95	16.4%	7.6%	2.3%	.326	2.71	32.9%	25.0%	241	-1.24	0.84	577	74
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	74
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	73
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	72
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	71
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	70
Framber Valdez L 2019 · 3.88 FIP	25	SW	3.88	25.3%	12.2%	2.5%	.304	3.11	23.5%	15.2%	407	-0.77	2.56	1,565	70
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	69
Chris Murphy L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	21.5%	9.7%	2.8%	.344	3.80	20.9%	9.3%	107	-0.22	3.34	461	69
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	69
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	25	SW	4.71	23.8%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.59	15.7%	5.5%	157	+0.88	2.06	402	69
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	69
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	68
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	122	21.8%	11.2%	1.16	4.67
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36