Nu'u Contrades

SS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 R/R A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1953ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	ASD	98	.250/.357/.429	3	7	69	—	.205/.286/.330
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSD	208	.217/.282/.344	5	5	76	0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	24	MLBSD	25	.216/.281/.345	1	1	78	0.0
2029PROJ34% MLB	25	MLBSD	60	.218/.284/.349	1	1	80	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%75

ISO72

Chase%70

Speed61

BB%60

wOBA56

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKevin Smith (age 23) · Jeferson Morales (age 24) · Jeremiah Jackson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .279 / .341

PA63

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO127

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	84	21	6	0	3	13	19	1	7	2	250	357	429	786	179	290	19	13	353	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	88	18	5	0	2	9	26	1	7	2	205	286	330	615	125	254	27	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	88	18	5	0	2	9	26	1	7	2	205	286	330	615	125	267	27	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	84	21	6	0	3	13	19	1	7	2	250	357	429	786	179	290	19	13	353	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	88	18	5	0	2	9	26	1	7	2	205	286	330	615	125	254	27	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	98	88	18	5	0	2	9	26	1	7	2	205	286	330	615	125	254	27	9	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	0%	208	189	41	8	1	5	15	58	2	5	1	217	282	344	626	127	285	28	7	281	76	-6	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	22%	115	104	24	5	1	3	9	32	1	3	0	219	285	350	634	130	287	28	8	284	78	-3	+1	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	34%	174	157	35	7	1	4	13	48	2	4	1	221	287	354	641	133	287	28	7	287	80	-4	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	42%	234	212	47	9	1	6	18	64	2	5	1	222	288	357	645	135	287	27	8	289	82	-5	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	45%	271	246	54	11	1	6	21	73	2	6	1	222	289	357	646	134	287	27	8	289	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	46%	295	267	59	12	1	7	23	80	3	6	1	222	289	355	644	133	286	27	8	288	81	-7	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	46%	301	273	60	12	1	7	23	82	2	6	1	220	286	349	635	130	285	27	8	285	79	-8	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	46%	301	273	60	12	1	7	23	83	2	5	1	217	283	342	625	125	284	28	8	280	76	-9	+1	-3	+3	+7	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	22%	25	23	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	216	281	345	626	129	281	28	8	281	78	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	34%	60	55	11	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	218	284	349	633	132	281	27	7	284	80	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	42%	98	90	19	4	0	2	7	27	1	2	0	219	285	352	637	133	281	28	7	285	82	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	45%	121	110	25	5	1	3	9	33	1	3	0	219	286	352	638	133	281	27	7	286	82	-3	+1	-0	+1	+3	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	46%	137	125	27	5	1	3	10	37	1	3	1	219	286	351	636	132	281	27	7	285	81	-3	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	46%	139	126	27	5	1	3	11	38	1	3	1	216	283	345	628	128	279	27	8	282	79	-3	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	46%	139	127	27	5	1	3	10	38	1	2	1	214	279	337	617	124	278	27	7	277	76	-4	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	719	656	141	27	4	16	53	196	6	15	3	215	280	341	621	127	279	27	7	283	79	-17	+2	-4	+8	+16	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	127	24	4	14	48	177	5	14	3	214	279	339	618	125	278	27	7	283	79	-16	+2	-4	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1852	1677	369	76	7	43	144	506	16	43	8	220	288	351	639	131	287	27	8	285	79	-43	+5	-11	+19	+38	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	129	27	2	15	51	178	6	15	3	219	288	348	636	129	286	27	8	285	79	-16	+2	-4	+7	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 98 PAwOBA .344 → .270 (−74)K% 19.4% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.39%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.27%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	9.06%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.79%
Singles /BIP	18.46%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.003	×0.990	16.86%
Doubles /BIP	9.23%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.003	×0.990	7.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.003	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.62%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .344 → .270; ISO .179 → .138; BABIP .290 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.2	782	18	16	221	284	353	+8	-7	1.3	1.3
/162	664	15	13	+7.1	-5.6	1.1	pk7: 1
#2Phil Linz'62-'68 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,518 PA	2.3	1,518	11	13	238*	301*	338*	+10	-0	0.7	0.7
/162	664	5	6	+4.3	-0.2	0.3	pk7: 1
#3Luis Lopez'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,783 PA	2.7	1,783	22	10	231*	282*	333*	+11	-6	-1.8	-0.2
/162	664	8	4	+4.0	-2.2	-0.7	pk7: 2
#4Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nu'u Contrades (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	215/279/341	126	285	1	1	28%	7%	76	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Smith 2019 · A	23	43→45	48→55	53→50	36	219/261/365	146	296	16	15	31%	4%	74	-0.5	205/255/362	157	286	18	14	34%	6%	72	-0.7	209/261/367	157	281	19	15	32%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→47	46→45	49→50	43	195/275/324	129	258	13	9	29%	7%	71	-0.8	216/290/343	127	275	12	9	25%	7%	80	-0.1	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	49→55	48→55	42	201/265/351	150	272	17	12	32%	7%	73	-0.6	221/268/376	155	290	20	15	30%	6%	80	-0.2	231/272/390	159	293	20	15	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	41→36	49→50	53→50	39	208/269/355	147	289	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.5	208/272/340	132	295	14	10	33%	6%	73	-0.6	202/272/344	143	283	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→60	47→45	42	205/269/329	123	282	11	10	30%	7%	69	-0.9	200/273/347	147	275	17	7	32%	8%	75	-0.5	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→44	45→50	49→40	44	228/280/350	122	288	12	8	25%	6%	77	-0.3	216/283/360	144	273	19	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	212/283/353	141	263	19	2	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	43→51	47→50	51→60	39	215/265/348	133	294	15	16	31%	6%	72	-0.7	215/279/342	127	288	12	32	28%	7%	76	-0.4	232/299/362	129	300	10	41	25%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Kenedy Corona 2023 · A	23	42	47→50	53→55	40	214/271/352	138	294	15	21	32%	6%	75	-0.5	206/270/322	116	285	12	24	30%	7%	68	-1.0	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Braxton Fulford 2023 · A	24	44→41	47→50	52→50	44	216/299/348	131	298	14	10	31%	8%	85	+0.2	213/288/349	136	291	14	10	30%	7%	82	-0.0	207/283/351	144	282	15	9	30%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Christian Koss 2022 · A	24	42→47	47→45	50	39	217/262/353	136	281	15	9	29%	5%	72	-0.7	224/268/346	122	299	12	14	28%	4%	72	-0.7	246/294/365	119	307	12	15	23%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	43→53	47→50	54→55	42	211/280/356	145	295	13	13	32%	7%	80	-0.2	239/287/369	130	297	11	16	22%	6%	84	+0.1	250/295/369	119	301	10	15	20%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Sam Mende 2013 · A	23	43→45	47→45	50	36	218/262/356	138	291	13	14	30%	4%	72	-0.7	200/252/296	96	289	7	12	32%	5%	55	-2.0	143/202/193	50	217	0	7	32%	4%	9	-1.4
✕Freuddy Batista 2023 · A	23	41	47→50	49→40	38	203/273/342	139	299	15	8	36%	6%	74	-0.5	208/263/337	129	300	13	4	33%	5%	68	-1.0	206/259/338	132	266	17	4	29%	4%	64	-0.6
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	47→46	44→50	51→50	44	226/291/350	124	304	11	11	28%	7%	82	-0.0	221/268/359	138	289	14	12	28%	5%	75	-0.5	213/256/352	139	273	14	12	27%	4%	67	-0.8
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2008 · A	23	43→53	49→50	52→50	47	223/283/376	152	269	17	14	24%	8%	84	+0.2	234/299/349	115	304	9	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	241/309/353	112	313	8	8	24%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2021 · A	23	45→44	46→50	50→45	41	226/265/353	127	266	14	8	22%	4%	72	-0.7	227/267/376	149	272	18	3	24%	4%	79	-0.2	218/265/369	151	256	19	1	23%	4%	74	-0.4
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	46→45	48→50	42	221/284/348	127	282	13	11	26%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/327	117	265	13	7	25%	5%	67	-1.1	194/247/303	110	239	13	5	25%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7

Nu'u Contrades

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps