Davis Polo

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKATL	13	9	45	4.40	4.34	17.3%	7.6%	—	K 11.8% · BB 9.5% · FIP 6.09
2024	19	AATL	15	12	59	5.16	3.07	20.5%	5.0%	—	K 15.1% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.93
2026	21	MIX4 levels	25	23	129	3.00	3.23	27.0%	9.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	22	MLBATL	27	27	149	4.71	4.71	19.5%	9.7%	0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBATL	14	14	76	4.55	4.48	20.7%	8.8%	0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBATL	20	20	111	4.42	4.34	21.4%	8.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$6M2034Arb-3$8M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJack Wenninger (age 22) · Adrian Houser (age 22) · Kyle Lloyd (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD4055

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$24M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	1.9%	5.03	3.48	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	10	2	20	85	26	6	1	20%	2.0	30.6%	7.1%	23.5%	1.2%	5.03	2.03	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	11.8%	9.5%	2.3%	5.1%	4.40	6.09	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	13	9	45	185	32	14	6	69%	3.5	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.2%	4.40	4.34	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	15.1%	5.9%	9.2%	2.5%	5.16	3.93	—
2024	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	15	12	59	259	53	13	5	80%	4.0	20.5%	5.0%	15.4%	1.9%	5.16	3.07	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	2.8%	3.00	4.33	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	2.8%	3.00	4.33	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	23	129	519	140	47	12	92%	5.2	27.0%	9.1%	17.9%	2.3%	3.00	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ATL	27	27	149	629	123	61	19	100%	5.5	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	28	28	155	653	135	58	19	100%	5.5	20.7%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	ATL	28	28	158	669	143	56	20	100%	5.7	21.4%	8.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	160	678	148	55	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+1.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	ATL	27	27	160	678	149	54	20	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	158	668	147	54	20	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+1.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	153	648	142	53	20	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	ATL	24	24	146	619	134	52	20	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	138	581	124	51	20	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	128	542	113	49	20	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.87	+0.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	119	502	102	48	20	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	76	321	66	28	9	100%	5.4	20.7%	8.8%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.48	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	111	469	100	39	14	100%	5.5	21.4%	8.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.42	4.34	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	130	549	120	44	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.27	+1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	140	591	130	47	17	100%	6.1	22.0%	8.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+1.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	143	604	133	49	18	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.1%	13.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+1.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	ATL	24	24	141	595	130	49	18	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	ATL	23	23	136	574	124	49	18	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	ATL	22	22	129	545	116	48	19	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	122	515	108	47	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.76	4.87	+0.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	113	477	97	45	19	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		210	210	1241	5240	1124	446	167	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.12	+11.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	72	27	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.12	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		63	46	253	1048	180	95	32	73%	4.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	3.91	4.48	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	828	143	75	25	73%	4.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.1%	3.91	4.48	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Polo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.5%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.36	21.3%	12.9%	474	-0.35	—	—	—
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	86
Adrian Houser R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.90	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.45	1,221	85
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	85
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	84
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	84
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Michael Lorenzen R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	14.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.289	3.56	20.1%	12.0%	214	-1.02	3.17	1,181	82
Kyle Wright R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP	3.70	19.0%	9.7%	1.8%	.286	4.03	20.8%	11.7%	307	+0.33	3.32	669	82
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	81
Carson LaRue R 2018 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	15.5%	9.1%	3.4%	.281	5.17	16.0%	6.7%	124	+0.34	3.84	360	81
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	81
Colton Eastman R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.95	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.63	4.17	349	81
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	81
Mitch Spence R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.51	19.0%	11.8%	445	+0.39	4.12	747	81
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	80
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.1	148	21.3%	8.6%	1.22	4.49
Steve Stone ('71-'81, 16 WAR*)	8.9	163	21.3%*	9.2%*	1.34*	4.35*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Art Fromme ('06-'15, 11 WAR*)	7.2	160	21.1%*	9.2%*	1.35*	4.25*
Mike Krukow ('76-'89, 21 WAR*)	11.0	169	21.5%*	8.1%*	1.23*	4.43*
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30