Denison Sanchez — OGILVIE

Denison Sanchez P FCL Red Sox

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 164 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.09

FIP6.09

K%18.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.4%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	15	1	17	102	14	25	3	7%	1.2	9.3%	30.6%	-21.3%	4.6%	8.31	8.72	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	15	1	17	102	14	25	3	7%	1.2	13.7%	24.5%	-10.8%	2.9%	8.31	8.06	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	13	0	19	104	22	22	4	0%	1.5	14.4%	26.4%	-12.1%	6.3%	9.00	8.69	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	13	0	19	104	22	22	4	0%	1.5	21.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.8%	9.00	6.99	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	16	0	32	159	38	27	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	21.2%	-5.0%	0.9%	4.45	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	16	0	32	159	38	27	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	21.2%	-5.0%	0.9%	4.45	4.90	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	16	0	32	159	38	27	1	0%	2.0	23.9%	17.0%	6.9%	0.6%	4.45	3.66	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	1	32	152	42	30	4	9%	2.9	18.8%	24.7%	-5.9%	4.5%	6.25	7.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	1	32	152	42	30	4	9%	2.9	18.8%	24.7%	-5.9%	4.5%	6.25	7.12	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	1	32	152	42	30	4	9%	2.9	27.6%	19.7%	7.9%	2.6%	6.25	4.93	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	12	0	21	112	14	27	2	0%	1.8	8.5%	30.1%	-21.6%	2.5%	8.44	7.57	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	12	0	21	112	14	27	2	0%	1.8	8.5%	30.1%	-21.6%	2.5%	8.44	7.57	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	12	0	21	112	14	27	2	0%	1.8	12.5%	24.1%	-11.6%	1.8%	8.44	6.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	14	0	15	63	12	13	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	3.0%	6.09	6.09	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	28	0	30	126	26	21	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.6%	3.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.48	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	14	0	15	63	13	11	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.6%	3.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	13	10	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.6%	3.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	136	27	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.6%	3.7%	2.9%	5.65	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		67	2	122	629	88	164	22	3%	1.8	14.1%	26.0%	-12.0%	3.5%	6.88	7.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	3	200	1034	145	269	37	3%	1.8	14.1%	26.0%	-12.0%	3.5%	6.88	7.16	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denison Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.09	18.6%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.48	20.4%	3.7%	30	-0.61	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	89
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	87
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	85
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	85
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	85
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	85
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	84
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	84
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	83
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Omar Ventura R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	21	SU	5.82	15.8%	21.6%	2.4%	.254	3.53	19.5%	3.1%	30	-2.29	3.53	125	83
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	83
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	83
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	83
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	82
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	82
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	82
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	82