Jose Gutierrez

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	ROKDSL Royals Bl…	6	2	16	4.50	2.35	23.9%	4.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 5.3% · FIP 3.59
2025	22	MIX2 levels	20	13	66	3.80	2.98	21.6%	10.5%	—	K 15.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.97
2026	23	AKC	24	20	114	3.62	3.61	20.2%	7.6%	—	K 14.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	12	12	69	4.92	4.92	16.3%	9.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBKC	8	8	45	4.64	4.59	18.0%	9.2%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBKC	12	12	69	4.53	4.49	19.0%	9.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsNick Dean (age 23) · Tyler Uberstine (age 23) · Cooper Chandler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%16.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	13.4%	3.5%	9.9%	1.7%	3.06	3.34	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	7	5	18	71	14	2	1	71%	2.5	19.7%	2.8%	16.9%	1.4%	3.06	2.59	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	16.3%	5.3%	11.0%	2.2%	4.50	3.59	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	6	2	16	71	17	3	1	33%	2.7	23.9%	4.2%	19.7%	1.4%	4.50	2.35	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	15.4%	12.6%	2.8%	1.0%	3.80	3.97	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	13	66	287	62	30	2	65%	3.3	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	0.7%	3.80	2.98	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
2026	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	14.9%	9.0%	5.9%	2.9%	3.62	4.59	—
2026	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	24	20	114	486	98	37	11	83%	4.8	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	2.3%	3.62	3.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	12	12	69	291	47	28	8	100%	5.8	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	104	440	79	41	13	100%	5.8	18.0%	9.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.76	4.71	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	104	440	83	40	13	100%	6.1	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.65	4.61	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	433	83	39	13	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.63	4.63	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	100	420	80	39	13	100%	5.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.70	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	95	401	75	38	13	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	3.2%	4.77	4.83	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	377	70	37	13	100%	6.0	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.01	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	34	18	5	100%	5.6	18.0%	9.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.64	4.59	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	69	291	55	26	8	100%	5.8	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.53	4.49	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	79	334	64	30	9	100%	6.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	68	33	10	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.58	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	83	350	66	33	10	100%	5.9	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.70	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	80	338	62	33	11	100%	6.2	18.5%	9.7%	8.7%	3.1%	4.78	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	440	1857	349	173	53	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.25	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	79	24	100%	6.0	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		57	40	214	915	138	86	20	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	854	128	80	19	70%	3.8	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	2.2%	3.70	4.22	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	16.3%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.65	18.7%	9.5%	311	-0.27	—	—	—
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	86
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	83
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	82
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	95	18.5%	9.3%	1.17	4.75
Bill Fleming ('40-'46, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	19.1%*	9.6%*	1.22*	4.54*
Harry Perkowski ('47-'55, 3 WAR*)	3.5	100	17.5%*	9.9%*	1.05*	4.55*
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89
Ed Rakow ('60-'67, 3 WAR*)	3.8	127	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.22*	4.66*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86