Abel Mendez
Abel Mendez
P
DSL Astros Orange
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION10 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.9%
IP10
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 14 | 4 | 24 | 135 | 26 | 36 | 0 | 13.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 9.75 | 6.22 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 12 | 1 | 17 | 95 | 19 | 20 | 0 | 13.6% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 10 | — | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 5 | 41 | 230 | 31 | 70 | 0 | 13.3% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 8.49 | 5.83 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 24 | 200 | 1113 | 150 | 339 | 0 | 13.3% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 8.49 | 5.83 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abel Mendez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.23 | 23.9% | 14.9% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 88 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 123 | 87 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | .282 | 5.34 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.57 | 3.77 | 105 | 87 |
| Jake Bray R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.37 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .245 | 4.44 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 158 | +1.07 | 2.76 | 198 | 86 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.00 | 313 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.87 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 121 | -0.08 | 3.24 | 160 | 86 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.05 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 158 | +1.40 | 3.65 | 194 | 86 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 86 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 86 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.73 | 220 | 86 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 86 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 86 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.94 | 13.6% | 1.3% | 65 | +2.05 | 3.89 | 109 | 85 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.64 | 517 | 85 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.