Ryan Dollar — OGILVIE

Ryan Dollar P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%23.4%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	43	0	53	224	71	32	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.9%	3.40	4.87	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	43	0	53	224	71	32	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.9%	3.40	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	11	0	13	56	18	6	1	0%	1.2	32.1%	10.7%	21.4%	1.8%	4.15	2.72	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	31	0	38	161	49	26	4	0%	1.2	30.4%	16.1%	14.3%	2.5%	3.32	3.94	—
2026	22	AA RAW	NYM	1	0	2	7	4	0	0	0%	2.0	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	54	227	55	26	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	55	233	57	24	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.33	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	56	236	59	23	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	56	236	59	23	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	55	232	58	23	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.9%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	26	0	27	114	28	13	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.49	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	41	17	5	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.33	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	43	0	45	190	47	19	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	47	0	49	207	52	20	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.24	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	48	0	50	211	53	21	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.9%	15.2%	3.0%	4.24	4.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		199	0	209	882	219	90	26	0%	1.0	24.9%	10.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	3.90	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	86	25	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		43	0	53	224	53	38	7	0%	1.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.9%	3.40	4.87	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	0	200	845	199	144	25	0%	1.2	23.5%	17.0%	6.5%	2.9%	3.40	4.87	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Dollar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	23.4%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.35	24.6%	14.1%	165	-0.39	—	—	—
Jacob Wallace R 2021 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	26.6%	13.1%	3.2%	.316	4.77	23.8%	7.0%	167	+0.51	3.50	279	90
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	89
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	88
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	88
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	87
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Dauris Valdez R 2018 · 4.18 FIP	22	SU	4.18	24.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.328	4.93	22.3%	10.3%	55	+0.75	3.00	165	87
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	52	24.6%	10.5%	1.14	4.40
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41