Justin West

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#417ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ANYY	23	20	113	4.06	3.04	26.1%	7.5%	—	K 19.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	—	—	0	4.53	4.53	20.2%	8.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYY	7	7	37	4.55	4.51	21.0%	8.5%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYY	9	9	53	4.48	4.44	21.5%	8.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBrian Holmes (age 24) · Pete Hansen (age 23) · Austin Emener (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%20.2%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	—
2026	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	—
2026	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	26.1%	7.5%	18.5%	2.2%	4.06	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	87	366	77	31	11	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	80	339	73	28	10	100%	5.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.1%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	334	72	28	10	100%	6.1	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.9%	4.33	4.30	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	77	325	70	27	10	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	73	309	67	26	10	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	68	287	61	25	9	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.49	4.55	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	61	259	54	23	9	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.73	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	54	230	47	22	8	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.93	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	7	7	37	156	33	13	5	100%	5.3	21.0%	8.5%	12.5%	3.1%	4.55	4.51	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	53	224	48	19	7	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.44	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	63	266	58	22	8	100%	6.3	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	3.1%	4.44	4.41	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	66	279	60	23	9	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	3.2%	4.45	4.45	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	65	274	59	23	9	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	3.3%	4.50	4.53	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	62	262	56	23	9	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.4%	4.61	4.67	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	57	241	50	22	9	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.7%	4.77	4.86	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	51	215	44	20	8	100%	6.4	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.9%	4.96	5.07	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	452	1910	408	165	64	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.23	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	180	73	28	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.59	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		23	20	113	464	90	41	13	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	821	158	73	23	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 113 IPFIP 3.04 → 4.14 (+1.10)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.08%	—	×0.740	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.180	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin West (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.2%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.34	21.4%	13.0%	246	-0.19	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	87
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	86
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	86
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	85
Noah Lowry L 2004 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.8%	7.0%	2.6%	.296	4.33	15.2%	5.8%	520	+0.49	3.84	612	85
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	84
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	84
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	84
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	84
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	84
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	83
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	83
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	82
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	3.99	17.6%	7.2%	171	+0.40	3.59	280	82
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	82
Michael Velasquez L 2016 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	16.7%	6.6%	2.5%	.350	5.07	10.3%	2.8%	88	+1.16	3.91	201	82
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	82
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	82
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	82
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	21.2%	8.6%	1.20	4.47
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*