Justin West — OGILVIE

Justin West P Tampa Tarpons

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.9 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%21.8%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYY	23	20	113	464	121	35	10	87%	4.9	26.1%	7.5%	18.5%	2.2%	4.06	3.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	115	485	109	41	14	100%	5.7	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	118	497	115	41	15	100%	5.6	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	119	504	118	41	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	2.9%	4.17	4.12	+1.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	119	504	119	40	15	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	2.9%	4.13	4.10	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	118	496	117	40	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	114	481	113	40	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.19	4.23	+0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	109	460	107	39	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.2%	4.29	4.36	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	102	432	99	38	15	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.53	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	96	403	91	37	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.6%	4.62	4.74	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	88	373	82	35	14	100%	5.9	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	3.9%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	56	236	53	20	7	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.1%	4.43	4.38	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	82	346	80	28	11	100%	5.5	23.1%	8.2%	14.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.29	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	97	410	96	33	13	100%	5.7	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	3.1%	4.28	4.23	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	104	439	103	35	14	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.1%	4.24	4.21	+1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	106	448	105	36	14	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	3.2%	4.25	4.25	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	105	443	104	37	14	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.2%	15.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.34	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	101	426	99	36	15	100%	5.9	23.2%	8.5%	14.7%	3.4%	4.41	4.48	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	93	36	15	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	3.6%	4.57	4.66	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	86	35	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	3.9%	4.75	4.87	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	84	355	78	34	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.5%	12.5%	4.1%	4.96	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	156	923	3895	898	330	132	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.44	4.09	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	72	29	100%	5.9	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.44	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	20	113	464	90	41	13	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	821	158	73	23	87%	4.9	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	2.8%	4.06	4.14	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin West (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	21.8%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.19	23.0%	14.8%	352	-0.23	—	—	—
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	83
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	80
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	78
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	78
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	77
Alex Troop L 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	15.0%	7.5%	3.0%	.339	3.82	20.8%	16.2%	106	-0.59	2.93	379	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	76
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	75
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	75
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	74
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	73
Carlos Peña L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	17.0%	6.3%	2.9%	.271	3.95	18.3%	8.2%	309	-0.11	3.17	620	73
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	73
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	73
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	72
Evan Kruczynski L 2017 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP	4.47	14.1%	6.1%	3.3%	.299	4.33	18.0%	8.7%	263	-0.14	3.69	350	72
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	72
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	71
Wilfri Aleton L 2016 · 3.45 FIP	20	SP-	3.45	15.6%	7.0%	1.4%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	113	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	102	23.0%	8.5%	1.22	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88