Robert Phelps

SS Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1563ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	APHI	53	.231/.423/.282	0	5	80	—	.214/.365/.262
2026	22	A+/APHI	479	.251/.374/.359	9	28	70	—	.215/.309/.307
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBPHI	508	.202/.289/.305	9	13	71	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBPHI	114	.208/.294/.321	2	3	74	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBPHI	182	.210/.296/.328	4	4	77	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Z-Con%98

Whiff%90

K%89

Speed48

BB%25

Chase%18

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFelix Valerio (age 23) · Juan Mora (age 22) · Levi Michael (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .287 / .303

PA210

HR4

SB5

K%22

BB%9

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	39	9	2	0	0	12	8	1	5	1	231	423	282	705	51	281	15	23	340	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	111	100	19	1	0	2	10	18	0	9	4	190	264	260	524	70	210	16	9	242	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	368	295	80	13	1	7	53	60	15	19	7	271	408	393	801	122	313	16	14	365	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	42	9	2	0	0	9	10	1	5	1	214	365	262	627	48	253	19	17	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	111	104	17	1	0	2	6	24	0	9	4	163	209	231	440	67	185	22	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	368	312	72	11	1	6	36	82	15	19	7	231	339	330	669	99	276	22	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	42	9	2	0	0	9	10	1	5	1	214	365	262	627	48	273	19	17	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	39	9	2	0	0	12	8	1	5	1	231	423	282	705	51	281	15	23	340	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	479	415	88	12	1	7	43	105	15	28	11	212	309	296	605	84	262	22	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	479	395	99	14	1	9	63	78	15	28	11	251	374	359	734	109	287	16	13	336	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	43	9	2	0	0	9	10	1	5	1	209	365	256	621	47	253	19	17	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	479	418	88	12	1	7	43	105	15	28	11	211	309	294	603	84	255	22	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	53	43	9	2	0	0	9	10	1	5	1	209	365	256	621	47	253	19	17	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	479	418	88	12	1	7	43	105	15	28	11	211	309	294	603	84	255	22	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	508	448	91	16	2	9	46	111	9	13	4	202	289	305	594	103	247	22	9	273	71	-18	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	30%	379	336	69	12	2	7	34	82	6	9	3	206	292	316	608	109	250	22	9	278	74	-12	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	44%	413	365	77	14	2	8	38	90	7	10	3	209	295	322	617	113	252	22	9	281	77	-12	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	434	385	81	14	2	9	39	94	7	10	3	211	296	326	622	116	254	22	9	283	78	-11	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	438	388	83	15	2	9	40	96	7	10	3	212	296	328	624	116	255	22	9	284	78	-11	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	437	388	83	15	2	9	39	97	7	9	3	212	296	328	623	116	256	22	9	284	78	-11	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	427	380	79	14	2	8	38	96	6	7	3	209	293	322	615	112	255	22	9	280	76	-12	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	414	368	76	14	1	8	37	94	6	5	2	207	290	314	604	108	254	23	9	276	73	-13	+0	-2	+4	+9	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	30%	114	101	21	4	0	2	10	25	2	3	1	208	294	321	614	113	250	22	9	280	74	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	44%	182	160	34	6	1	4	17	40	3	4	1	210	296	328	623	117	252	22	9	284	77	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	220	194	41	7	1	5	20	48	4	5	2	212	297	332	629	120	254	22	9	286	78	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	230	203	44	8	1	5	21	50	4	5	2	213	298	334	631	121	256	22	9	287	78	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	233	206	44	8	1	5	21	52	4	5	2	213	297	333	630	120	257	22	9	286	78	-6	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	224	199	42	7	1	5	20	50	3	4	1	211	294	327	621	116	256	22	9	283	76	-6	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	216	192	40	7	1	4	19	49	3	2	1	208	291	319	610	111	254	23	9	278	73	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1419	1255	266	47	6	30	128	314	23	28	10	212	297	331	627	119	257	22	9	284	75	-40	+2	-2	+15	+31	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	123	22	3	14	59	144	11	13	5	214	300	336	635	122	260	22	9	284	75	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3684	3252	684	119	15	69	336	810	66	98	34	210	297	320	617	109	257	22	9	279	75	-90	+4	-4	+34	+68	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	121	21	3	12	59	143	12	17	6	211	298	321	618	110	258	22	9	279	75	-19	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 368 PAwOBA .361 → .296 (−65)K% 16.3% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.30%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	22.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.40%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	9.94%
HBP% /PA	4.08%	—	×0.780	—	—	3.18%
Singles /BIP	25.11%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.982	—	22.67%
Doubles /BIP	5.53%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.982	—	4.51%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.982	—	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.98%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	2.38%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .361 → .296; ISO .122 → .100; BABIP .313 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 111 PAwOBA .238 → .192 (−46)K% 16.2% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	21.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.01%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	5.47%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.012	×1.012	17.39%
Doubles /BIP	1.22%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.012	×1.012	0.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.012	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.17%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .238 → .192; ISO .070 → .061; BABIP .210 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 53 PAwOBA .339 → .286 (−54)K% 15.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.09%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.64%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	16.27%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.49%
Singles /BIP	22.58%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×1.015	20.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×1.015	5.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .339 → .286; ISO .051 → .048; BABIP .281 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.5	1,629	32	34	210	291	322	+17	+12	1.7	1.7
/162	664	13	14	+7.1	+4.9	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Phelps (OGILVIE)	23	51→56	37→42	57→62	60	201/287/303	102	247	4	5	22%	9%	71	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix Valerio 2024 · AA	23	42→49	43→45	51→55	46	208/270/320	112	252	11	19	22%	7%	68	-1.0	210/274/309	99	281	9	14	27%	7%	66	-1.1	194/271/263	69	269	6	16	28%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Levi Michael 2014 · A	23	42→52	37→45	55	49	199/278/277	78	266	4	13	25%	9%	60	-1.6	225/292/310	85	297	5	16	24%	7%	72	-0.7	226/291/335	109	312	10	11	29%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	234/295/343	109	305	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/279/332	115	309	9	16	31%	7%	73	-0.6	206/271/319	113	301	10	16	33%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Danny Worth 2009 · AA	23	49→51	41→45	57→50	46	235/291/344	110	300	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	225/275/313	88	299	6	13	25%	6%	66	-1.1	230/293/337	107	299	9	18	25%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Kristopher Negrón 2009 · A	23	46→49	40→45	57→55	43	220/279/317	97	278	7	19	23%	6%	70	-0.9	225/284/324	99	290	8	20	24%	6%	73	-0.6	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→44	43→45	53→50	47	201/277/314	113	254	10	15	24%	8%	69	-0.9	225/285/338	113	297	9	10	26%	6%	77	-0.3	233/292/342	109	311	9	9	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2010 · A	23	49→50	42→45	55→60	49	236/311/356	119	289	8	19	20%	8%	91	+0.6	229/288/337	108	289	6	27	22%	6%	77	-0.3	225/286/341	117	286	11	26	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Christian Cairo 2024 · A	23	42→49	39→40	51→60	53	197/301/281	84	282	6	16	29%	12%	71	-0.8	218/307/294	76	305	4	26	27%	10%	76	-0.4	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Andrew Aplin 2014 · A	23	46→56	42→40	52→55	53	222/289/333	111	253	9	14	16%	9%	77	-0.3	235/308/317	82	287	6	22	18%	10%	80	-0.1	233/308/303	70	291	5	27	20%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Tanner Schobel 2024 · AA	23	45→44	43→45	53→50	48	219/290/326	107	277	11	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	200/271/309	109	265	11	11	27%	8%	65	-1.2	188/262/291	103	248	10	12	27%	8%	55	-1.4
✕Javi Vaz 2024 · AA	23	49→50	41→40	57→55	56	233/306/332	99	259	7	19	14%	9%	83	+0.1	221/297/309	88	250	7	19	14%	9%	74	-0.5	212/293/292	80	240	6	21	14%	9%	67	-0.7
✕Caleb Durbin 2023 · A	23	46→53	41→45	56→60	51	217/293/316	99	245	8	21	15%	7%	75	-0.5	246/321/362	116	268	9	31	12%	7%	96	+1.0	245/327/375	129	263	13	26	12%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Noel Cuevas 2015 · AA	23	45→52	42→45	54→55	41	222/264/330	109	282	9	16	24%	5%	66	-1.1	238/272/333	95	307	7	18	24%	3%	70	-0.9	254/287/363	108	316	8	12	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Tony Renda 2014 · A	23	51→59	38→40	53→50	50	240/299/332	91	280	4	15	15%	7%	80	-0.2	255/305/332	77	297	3	16	14%	6%	82	-0.0	265/312/339	74	304	2	17	13%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Zach Shank 2014 · A	23	43→53	39→45	57→45	47	201/263/293	92	235	5	10	17%	6%	58	-1.7	229/279/325	96	290	6	7	22%	5%	71	-0.8	239/288/331	91	307	5	5	23%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Nick Van Stratten 2008 · A	23	49→58	40	57→55	50	231/292/334	104	255	6	12	13%	6%	78	-0.3	253/307/351	98	300	4	12	16%	6%	86	+0.3	297/333/377	79	333	3	23	11%	4%	98	+0.5
✕Jeron Williams 2024 · A	23	46	38→50	57→60	50	216/300/293	77	293	6	20	26%	9%	72	-0.7	215/268/325	110	275	9	29	24%	6%	67	-1.1	212/259/325	114	264	9	36	23%	5%	62	-0.6
✕Kraig Binick 2008 · A	23	45	42→40	57→55	47	220/289/325	105	265	9	12	20%	6%	75	-0.5	215/272/314	99	251	9	12	18%	5%	66	-1.1	224/283/287	63	241	7	26	10%	4%	61	-0.7

Robert Phelps

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps