Tony Renda
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAAARI | 226 | .250/.297/.317 | 1 | 3 | 43 | — | .225/.257/.282 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 292 | .318/.375/.453 | 5 | 10 | 82 | — | .259/.302/.351 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 21 | .200/.238/.450 | 1 | 0 | 52 | — | .200/.238/.450 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 606 | 521 | 153 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 68 | 65 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 294 | 384 | 405 | 789 | 111 | 328 | 11 | 11 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 472 | 414 | 127 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 43 | 59 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 307 | 385 | 377 | 762 | 70 | 353 | 12 | 9 | 346 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 90 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 236 | 259 | 495 | 59 | 254 | 21 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 532 | 480 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 39 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 333 | 358 | 691 | 90 | 285 | 7 | 8 | 311 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 67 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 246 | 217 | 463 | 33 | 224 | 16 | 7 | 212 | 29 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 121 | 105 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 276 | 350 | 352 | 703 | 76 | 318 | 13 | 8 | 312 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 282 | 261 | 85 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 326 | 371 | 467 | 839 | 142 | 344 | 7 | 5 | 370 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 226 | 208 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 250 | 297 | 317 | 615 | 67 | 271 | 10 | 6 | 275 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 184 | 170 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 288 | 339 | 382 | 721 | 94 | 341 | 17 | 6 | 324 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 108 | 97 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 371 | 435 | 577 | 1.013 | 206 | 407 | 12 | 8 | 445 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 450 | 688 | 250 | 188 | 14 | 5 | 298 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 67 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 246 | 217 | 463 | 33 | 224 | 16 | 7 | 212 | 30 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 606 | 546 | 136 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 87 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 249 | 313 | 339 | 652 | 90 | 283 | 14 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 472 | 428 | 117 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 84 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 273 | 334 | 327 | 661 | 54 | 329 | 18 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 532 | 495 | 131 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 50 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 265 | 308 | 341 | 649 | 77 | 283 | 9 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 67 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 246 | 217 | 463 | 33 | 224 | 16 | 7 | 210 | 29 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 121 | 108 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 278 | 333 | 352 | 685 | 74 | 315 | 16 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 282 | 266 | 78 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 293 | 329 | 417 | 746 | 124 | 308 | 8 | 3 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 226 | 213 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 257 | 282 | 538 | 56 | 245 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 184 | 174 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 236 | 273 | 299 | 572 | 63 | 293 | 20 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 108 | 100 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 300 | 352 | 440 | 792 | 140 | 343 | 15 | 6 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 450 | 688 | 250 | 173 | 19 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 606 | 546 | 136 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 87 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 249 | 313 | 339 | 652 | 90 | 289 | 14 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 606 | 521 | 153 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 68 | 65 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 294 | 384 | 405 | 789 | 111 | 328 | 11 | 11 | 353 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 511 | 138 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 100 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 270 | 329 | 321 | 650 | 51 | 331 | 18 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 499 | 144 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 46 | 78 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 289 | 362 | 357 | 718 | 68 | 337 | 14 | 8 | 326 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 532 | 495 | 131 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 50 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 265 | 308 | 341 | 649 | 77 | 289 | 9 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | Trenton Thunder | — | 532 | 480 | 129 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 39 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 269 | 333 | 358 | 691 | 90 | 285 | 7 | 8 | 311 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 470 | 434 | 119 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 274 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 99 | 306 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 470 | 426 | 125 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 47 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 293 | 348 | 404 | 752 | 110 | 323 | 10 | 6 | 332 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 226 | 213 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 257 | 282 | 538 | 56 | 255 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 226 | 208 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 250 | 297 | 317 | 615 | 67 | 271 | 10 | 6 | 275 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 274 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 259 | 302 | 350 | 653 | 91 | 312 | 18 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 292 | 267 | 85 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 318 | 375 | 453 | 828 | 135 | 365 | 15 | 7 | 369 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 450 | 688 | 250 | 200 | 19 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 450 | 688 | 250 | 188 | 14 | 5 | 298 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 606 | 550 | 136 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 87 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 247 | 313 | 336 | 650 | 89 | 283 | 14 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 512 | 138 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 100 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 270 | 329 | 320 | 649 | 51 | 329 | 18 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 532 | 496 | 131 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 50 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 264 | 308 | 341 | 649 | 77 | 283 | 9 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 470 | 439 | 119 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 271 | 318 | 369 | 687 | 98 | 298 | 11 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 226 | 215 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 223 | 257 | 279 | 536 | 56 | 245 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 273 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 260 | 302 | 352 | 654 | 92 | 311 | 18 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 450 | 688 | 250 | 173 | 19 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 67 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 246 | 217 | 463 | 33 | 224 | 16 | 7 | 212 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 106 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 107 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 246 | 215 | 460 | 33 | 223 | 16 | 8 | 212 | 79 | -54 | +0 | +13 | +16 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2709 | 2493 | 647 | 131 | 14 | 13 | 148 | 380 | 34 | 103 | 26 | 260 | 310 | 339 | 649 | 79 | 299 | 14 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 154 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 91 | 8 | 25 | 6 | 258 | 308 | 334 | 643 | 77 | 297 | 14 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -54 | +0 | +13 | +16 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 21 PAwOBA .289 → .245 (−43)K% 14.3% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 5.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 10.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.72% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .245; ISO .250 → .209; BABIP .188 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 184 PAwOBA .317 → .257 (−60)K% 16.8% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.85% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.98% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 4.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .257; ISO .094 → .068; BABIP .341 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 108 PAwOBA .433 → .344 (−89)K% 12.0% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.04% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 23.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.10% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 9.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .433 → .344; ISO .206 → .147; BABIP .407 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAReno Aces · 226 PAwOBA .268 → .232 (−35)K% 9.7% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.73% | ÷0.919 | ×1.290 | — | — | 13.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.87% | ÷1.007 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.04% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 20.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.089 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×1.018 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.044 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.41% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 84, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .268 → .232; ISO .067 → .051; BABIP .271 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 282 PAwOBA .363 → .317 (−45)K% 7.1% → 8.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.09% | ÷1.042 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷1.075 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.37% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 8.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷0.981 | ×0.880 | ×0.996 | ×0.998 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .363 → .317; ISO .142 → .123; BABIP .344 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 121 PAwOBA .304 → .292 (−12)K% 13.2% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.22% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.97% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 27.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 2.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .304 → .292; ISO .076 → .071; BABIP .318 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AATrenton Thunder · 532 PAwOBA .304 → .284 (−21)K% 7.3% → 9.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.33% | ÷0.950 | ×1.220 | — | — | 9.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.32% | ÷0.977 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 21.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷0.978 | ×0.860 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.020 | ×1.012 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.153 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 90, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .304 → .284; ISO .090 → .078; BABIP .285 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Potomac Nationals · 472 PAwOBA .341 → .294 (−47)K% 12.5% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.11% | ÷0.943 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.73% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 27.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.92% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.037 | ×0.998 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .341 → .294; ISO .070 → .055; BABIP .353 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).