Aiva Arquette

SS Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 23 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#232ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+MIA	117	.242/.353/.323	1	7	54	—	.194/.284/.262
2026	22	AA/A+MIA	291	.272/.328/.459	12	21	78	—	.236/.276/.382
2027PROJ6% MLB	23	MLBMIA	13	.230/.279/.371	0	0	88	0.0
2028PROJ41% MLB	24	MLBMIA	105	.233/.284/.381	3	3	92	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	25	MLBMIA	178	.234/.287/.387	6	4	95	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%79

K%76

Speed72

Z-Con%70

ISO64

wRC+53

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsHenry Davis (age 23) · Lewis Brinson (age 23) · Eguy Rosario (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .279 / .371

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP278

ISO144

MLB%6%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	99	24	5	0	1	17	27	0	7	2	242	353	323	677	81	319	23	15	313	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	228	210	57	6	0	10	14	45	3	16	1	271	326	443	769	171	301	20	6	340	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	63	58	16	4	2	2	4	17	1	5	1	276	333	517	851	241	359	27	6	370	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	103	20	4	0	1	13	35	0	7	2	194	284	262	547	68	281	30	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	228	216	52	6	0	8	8	55	3	16	1	241	278	380	657	139	281	24	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	63	59	13	3	2	1	3	22	1	5	1	220	270	390	660	169	312	35	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	103	20	4	0	1	13	35	0	7	2	194	284	262	547	68	279	30	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	99	24	5	0	1	17	27	0	7	2	242	353	323	677	81	319	23	15	313	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	291	275	65	8	2	10	11	77	4	21	2	236	276	389	665	153	291	26	4	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	291	268	73	10	2	12	18	62	4	21	2	272	328	459	787	187	313	21	6	347	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	103	20	4	0	1	13	35	0	7	2	194	284	262	547	68	281	30	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	291	274	65	8	2	10	11	77	4	21	2	237	276	391	666	153	288	26	4	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	117	103	20	4	0	1	13	35	0	7	2	194	284	262	547	68	281	30	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	291	274	65	8	2	10	11	77	4	21	2	237	276	391	666	153	288	26	4	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	6%	401	372	88	15	2	12	22	98	4	11	2	237	286	388	674	150	287	24	5	298	88	-6	+1	+1	+4	+9	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	6%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	230	279	371	650	141	278	23	8	288	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	41%	259	239	58	10	1	9	15	63	3	6	1	241	291	398	689	158	288	24	6	304	92	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	314	290	71	12	2	11	18	75	3	7	1	242	294	405	699	163	289	24	6	309	95	-2	+1	+1	+3	+7	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	64%	350	323	78	13	2	12	21	84	3	8	1	243	296	409	705	166	289	24	6	311	97	-1	+1	+1	+4	+8	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66%	362	333	81	14	2	12	22	87	4	7	1	243	297	407	703	164	288	24	6	310	96	-2	+1	+1	+4	+8	1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	67%	364	335	81	14	2	12	23	88	3	7	1	241	296	402	698	161	288	24	6	308	95	-2	+1	-0	+4	+8	1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	66%	357	329	79	13	2	12	22	87	3	6	1	239	293	396	690	158	287	24	6	305	93	-3	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	71%	349	322	75	13	1	11	21	86	3	6	1	236	290	389	679	153	285	25	6	301	90	-4	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	74%	332	306	71	12	1	10	20	83	3	4	1	232	285	380	665	148	283	25	6	295	86	-6	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	77%	309	286	65	11	1	9	18	79	2	4	2	227	279	368	647	141	279	26	6	287	81	-7	+0	-3	+3	+7	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	41%	105	97	22	4	0	3	6	25	1	3	0	233	284	381	665	148	279	24	6	294	92	-1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	178	164	39	6	1	6	10	43	2	4	1	234	287	387	674	153	279	24	6	298	95	-1	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	64%	225	208	49	8	1	7	13	54	2	5	1	235	289	391	680	156	279	24	6	301	97	-1	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	66%	239	220	51	8	1	8	15	57	2	5	1	234	289	389	678	154	279	24	6	300	96	-1	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	67%	244	225	52	8	1	8	15	59	2	5	1	233	288	385	673	152	278	24	6	298	95	-1	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	66%	235	216	50	8	1	7	15	57	2	4	1	231	286	379	665	148	277	24	6	295	93	-2	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	71%	248	229	52	8	1	8	15	61	2	4	1	228	283	372	655	144	276	25	6	291	90	-3	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	74%	247	228	51	8	1	7	15	62	2	3	1	225	278	363	642	139	274	25	6	285	86	-4	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	77%	237	219	49	8	1	7	14	61	2	3	1	220	272	352	624	132	270	26	6	278	81	-5	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1958	1806	415	66	8	61	118	479	17	36	8	230	283	377	660	147	278	24	6	293	89	-20	+4	-4	+21	+42	4.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	138	22	3	20	39	159	6	12	3	230	284	377	661	147	278	24	6	293	89	-7	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3614	3336	790	132	17	115	215	895	33	89	15	237	290	390	680	153	288	25	6	300	89	-33	+8	-4	+34	+69	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	143	24	3	21	39	161	6	16	3	238	292	393	685	155	289	25	6	300	89	-7	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 228 PAwOBA .329 → .285 (−44)K% 19.7% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.74%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	3.68%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.14%
Singles /BIP	24.85%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.000	×1.027	23.47%
Doubles /BIP	3.64%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.000	×1.027	3.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.000	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.98%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .329 → .285; ISO .171 → .142; BABIP .301 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 63 PAwOBA .359 → .279 (−80)K% 27.0% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.98%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	34.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.35%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	4.50%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.25%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.998	17.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.998	7.89%
Triples /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	4.14%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.89%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .359 → .279; ISO .241 → .181; BABIP .359 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 117 PAwOBA .309 → .248 (−60)K% 23.1% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷0.972	×1.270	—	—	30.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.53%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.028	×0.920	×0.985	×1.012	22.31%
Doubles /BIP	6.94%	÷0.961	×0.810	×0.985	×1.012	5.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.985	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.39%	÷1.006	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.12%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .309 → .248; ISO .081 → .064; BABIP .319 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Green'63-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,462 PA	6.7	4,462	80	26	246*	308*	382*	+16	+18	11.8	12.8
/162	664	12	4	+2.4	+2.7	1.8	pk7: 14
#2Kyle Farmerlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,367 PA	3.6	2,367	63	16	247	306	388	+17	+23	8.9	9.0
/162	664	18	4	+4.7	+6.4	2.5	pk7: 9
#3Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#4Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	4.2	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	12	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	2.6	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
/162	664	24	5	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.0	1,970	64	35	239	289	396	+21	+2	5.8	5.5
/162	664	22	12	+7.1	+0.6	2.0	pk7: 5
#6Pat Kelly'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,235 PA	3.4	2,235	36	61	242*	299*	375*	+6	+11	3.7	3.8
/162	664	11	18	+1.7	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aiva Arquette (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	235/284/384	149	287	6	6	24%	5%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	48→54	48→55	52→55	45	238/301/386	148	304	14	21	26%	7%	94	+0.9	222/284/374	152	291	16	17	28%	7%	85	+0.2	202/265/351	149	268	17	17	30%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	47→55	50→55	58→55	37	238/275/402	164	298	17	19	26%	4%	88	+0.4	245/282/399	154	307	17	23	25%	4%	90	+0.6	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Graham Pauley 2024 · AA	23	50→52	52→55	53→50	48	253/317/427	174	298	20	14	22%	8%	109	+2.0	220/288/373	153	268	17	10	24%	8%	86	+0.3	202/274/352	149	245	16	9	24%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Reid Brignac 2009 · AAA	23	47→54	48→55	49→50	42	235/279/382	147	289	15	10	24%	5%	84	+0.2	237/277/355	118	293	11	8	22%	5%	77	-0.3	236/275/340	105	288	9	6	21%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2023 · MLB	21	50→49	49→55	54→50	42	253/296/401	148	300	16	18	22%	5%	95	+1.0	244/280/395	151	314	16	10	27%	4%	88	+0.4	240/274/388	149	310	15	8	27%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Ezequiel Duran 2023 · MLB	24	45→55	51→55	49→50	39	231/277/399	167	302	19	15	30%	5%	88	+0.4	250/293/392	142	322	15	14	26%	5%	92	+0.7	249/300/379	130	313	12	16	24%	6%	91	+0.4
✕German Duran 2008 · AA	23	49→51	50	49→45	43	248/289/407	159	286	17	10	20%	5%	94	+0.9	222/266/336	114	263	11	7	20%	5%	69	-0.9	206/249/284	78	245	7	3	19%	4%	49	-1.0
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Thomas Saggese 2024 · AAA	22	50→56	50→55	53→50	40	248/301/409	161	329	17	10	29%	6%	99	+1.3	236/290/366	130	316	14	10	28%	6%	85	+0.2	229/286/346	117	307	13	11	28%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Matt Shaw 2024 · AA	22	52→48	49→55	59→55	41	261/297/413	152	307	16	22	21%	4%	98	+1.2	244/315/408	164	287	19	23	21%	8%	104	+1.6	237/316/404	167	275	19	23	21%	9%	102	+1.1
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Josh Rutledge 2013 · MLB	24	53→61	49→50	55→50	40	265/302/422	157	322	15	14	22%	4%	102	+1.5	250/299/374	124	313	11	11	23%	5%	90	+0.6	244/299/349	105	313	9	9	24%	5%	84	+0.1

Aiva Arquette

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps